Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
What will cause the heavyweight title to stay vacant this time?
This poll is closed.
Jon Jones goes on a pre-fight bender in Vegas 3 8.11%
Jon Jones goes on a post-fight bender in Vegas 1 2.70%
Jon Jones goes on a mid-fight bender in Vegas 4 10.81%
Jon Jones tests positive for supercocaine, which USADA spends the next three months pretending is normal 18 48.65%
A well-fought majority draw 1 2.70%
No Contest on account of simultaneous dick kicks 10 27.03%
Total: 37 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
  • Post
  • Reply
CarlCX
Dec 14, 2003

I think champions going up in weight to fight other champions is hard to justify in general if you care about divisional matchmaking, and the thing that makes it better is their having sufficiently dominated their field of contenders such that there isn't anything to accomplish at their primary weight class for a period of time. People felt iffy about Izzy challenging Jan because at that point he'd only defended the belt twice, one of those defenses was the extremely weird Romero fight, and he hadn't fought Cannonier or given Whittaker his extremely well-earned rematch. By contrast, Volkanovski had four defenses, the last three were absurdly definitive, and until Yair beat Emmett (and if Allen beats Holloway) no one in the entire top ten had a real claim to a shot. The acceptability hinges on how many questions the fans feel the champion has left unanswered.

In the case of Jon Jones, his justification for a heavyweight title shot is his light-heavyweight greatness, but he's only actually fought two people currently in the entire light-heavyweight top fifteen, one of those fights was four years ago, and the other was against the #11 guy in the division who's on a four-fight losing streak and he arguably won. There's nothing BUT questions about how Jones would do against the light-heavyweight division right now, and that makes the proposition feel worse.

Also he's a dickhead.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

GTO
Sep 16, 2003

CarlCX posted:


Also he's a dickhead.

This is the key point I think. I hope he loses and fucks off forever.

COPE 27
Sep 11, 2006

Who deserves a title shot more though? Maybe Blaydes, but losing to Lewis and beating Daukaus and Rozenstruik isn't that much more impressive than beating up a cop car imo.

LobsterMobster
Oct 29, 2009

"I was being quiet and trying to be a good boy but he dialed the right combination to open the throw-down vault and it was on."

"Walter Foxx is ten times brighter than your bulb at the bottom of the tree merry xmas"
Knee jerk reaction is to say Stipe, knowing he hasn't fought in a few years (though he's both fought and won more recently than Jones), but yknow, UFC seems to be dicking him around, too

blue footed boobie
Sep 14, 2012


UEFA SUPREMACY

LobsterMobster posted:

Knee jerk reaction is to say Stipe, knowing he hasn't fought in a few years (though he's both fought and won more recently than Jones), but yknow, UFC seems to be dicking him around, too

Imo like the Cejudo/Sterling fight, this is another example of the big name getting an immediate title shot being less of a problem than the UFC’s pay scheme alienating all other sensible contenders.

Boco_T
Mar 12, 2003

la calaca tilica y flaca
The ONE Friday Fights card got posted in English less than 24 hours before the show, so, here is the main event preview.

ONE Friday Fights 7 - 2022-03-03
Lumpinee Boxing Stadium, Bangkok, Thailand

Ringing in March with 9 Muay Thai fights and 3 MMA fights including HEAVYWEIGHT MMA IN THE LUMPINEE RING.

In the main event, Rambolek Chor Ajalaboon takes on Theeradet Chor Hapayak. 19-year-old Rambolek is 4-2-1 since the beginning of 2022. He last fought on January 7, a decision victory over OFF5 main eventer Kongklai. Thaibozing describes him as a skilled left-handed boxer.

Theeradet was 1-4 in 2022, and hasn’t fought since September. He’s excited to take part in ONE because it’s “probably the biggest show in Thailand,” and he has experience with 3 round fights. He’s also been practicing in the small gloves for a month and a half for this fight. He hopes to succeed in ONE to follow in the footsteps of his idol, Nong-O.

Part 1

Shakhriyor Jurayev vs. Samingdam Looksuan (MT 135)
So Yul Kim (6-1 MMA, 6-1 KB) vs. Souris Manfredi (MMA debut, 3-0 Lethwei, 1-1 BKB, 0-1 KB) (MMA 115)
Lisa Brierley vs. Rungnapa Por Muangpetch (MT 110)
Arash Mardani (1-1 MMA, 1-0 Box, 1-0 BKB) vs. Mamurjon Khamidov (6-0) (MMA 205)
“I’m Him” Lawrence Phillips (1-0) vs. Ben Parker (Debut?) (MMA 265)
Yodphupa Wimanair vs. Ilyas Musaev (MT 145)

Part 2

Rittidet Sor Sommai vs. Samingdam Chor Ajalaboon (MT 132)
Kwanjai Sor Tawanrung vs. Yuly Alves (MT 125)
Sagaengarm Jitmuangnon vs. Petbanrai Singha Mawynn (MT 113)
Rittidet Kiatsongrit vs. Ritnaka Or Bor Jor Nakhonpanom (MT 118)
Kongchai Chanaidonmueang vs. Chalamkhao PK.Saenchai (MT 125)
Rambolek Chor Ajalaboon vs. Theeradet Chor Hapayak (MT 143)

Fozzy The Bear
Dec 11, 1999

Nothing much, watching the game, drinking a bud
https://twitter.com/heynottheface/status/1630747072701038600

Fighter pay is going down :ughh:

Boco_T
Mar 12, 2003

la calaca tilica y flaca
Great kickboxing shows just dropped on Youtube, RISE 165 and 166. See Tenshin's Younger Brother!
https://bocot.substack.com/p/tape-delay-kickboxing-12-rise-165

Benson Cunningham
Dec 9, 2006

Chief of J.U.N.K.E.R. H.Q.

I assume that's the result of the DWCS funnel, where the UFC likely has a lot more control over incoming talent, in shaping what they see as normal, and in being able to standardize a process that makes sure new talent is paid a pittance. I don't actually know anything, that's just my guess.

CommonShore
Jun 6, 2014

A true renaissance man


Benson Cunningham posted:

I assume that's the result of the DWCS funnel, where the UFC likely has a lot more control over incoming talent, in shaping what they see as normal, and in being able to standardize a process that makes sure new talent is paid a pittance. I don't actually know anything, that's just my guess.

that's a reasonable assertion to base on the available, observable evidence.

LobsterMobster
Oct 29, 2009

"I was being quiet and trying to be a good boy but he dialed the right combination to open the throw-down vault and it was on."

"Walter Foxx is ten times brighter than your bulb at the bottom of the tree merry xmas"
The future of the UFC is clear:

Every event at the Apex

All fighters are on their initial 10/10 Contender Series contracts

Any fighter that attempts to negotiate is released.

Sweaty IT Nerd
Jul 13, 2007

I don't see myself buying a ppv UFC any time soon.

blue footed boobie
Sep 14, 2012


UEFA SUPREMACY
What is even the appeal of the apex for the UFC? You would think they want to make money from the gates at arenas.

I guess they just want to pump out shittier and shittier events that no one will go to so they can bleed the ESPN contract for everything it’s worth.

Brut
Aug 21, 2007

blue footed boobie posted:

What is even the appeal of the apex for the UFC? You would think they want to make money from the gates at arenas.

I guess they just want to pump out shittier and shittier events that no one will go to so they can bleed the ESPN contract for everything it’s worth.

They want to make a lot of money per event with huge sold out crowds, but a lot of places still have (or at least had last year) various covid regulations preventing that or even market research showing that they won't sell out (cuz people don't wanna risk covid just to watch Fight Night: Who vs Huh), so they don't want to deal with those places.

A Passing Feeling
Mar 18, 2009

Lone Goat posted:

thought you said destroyer of carbs, look at that belly welly :eyepoop:

insert eight million Jon Jones quotes about taking three years to do it "the right way"

Can't believe the fight is this weekend. He's an absolute dickhead but I kind of just see Jones taking Gane down and being infinitely more experienced and better at grappling than him. Gane is technical, fast, and has great striking, but a one-legged Ngannou took him down. I just don't see it going well for him, as much as I want it to.

LobsterMobster
Oct 29, 2009

"I was being quiet and trying to be a good boy but he dialed the right combination to open the throw-down vault and it was on."

"Walter Foxx is ten times brighter than your bulb at the bottom of the tree merry xmas"
I think the other thing is they own the Apex and it's already set up production wise so they don't have to pay to rent a venue and get lighting, the cage, etc set up how they want

Also, sometimes a robotic oligarch like Zuckerberg will buy out the place so he can feel like Shao Khan watching over the fighters

Kragger99
Mar 21, 2004
Pillbug

Sweaty IT Nerd posted:

I don't see myself buying a ppv UFC any time soon.

:same: The GDT's are what I usually follow now. I used to buy quite a few a year, but recent events have really soured it for me.

I was tempted to buy this weekend card, but after the 2 title fights, I barely recognize the rest of the main card. I haven't watched any of the DWCS seasons, so that's probably why. And if I buy it, I'm saying "yes" as my vote on "should we have given Jones a title shot after ~3 years away?", which I do not agree with.

DoombatINC
Apr 20, 2003

Here's the thing, I'm a feminist.





Yeah I'd think the biggest reason they keep using the Apex is because it lets them put on a shitload of disposable fight nights that would never otherwise sell out an arena, and do it for the lowest possible cost per card

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013


That or fewer fighters on the roster. Which I believe is public knowledge and so easy to check.

Sweaty IT Nerd
Jul 13, 2007

Kragger99 posted:

:same: The GDT's are what I usually follow now. I used to buy quite a few a year, but recent events have really soured it for me.

I was tempted to buy this weekend card, but after the 2 title fights, I barely recognize the rest of the main card. I haven't watched any of the DWCS seasons, so that's probably why. And if I buy it, I'm saying "yes" as my vote on "should we have given Jones a title shot after ~3 years away?", which I do not agree with.

All they have to do is pay the people who make their product but that's too much so instead they'll let the product be worse.

Fozzy The Bear
Dec 11, 1999

Nothing much, watching the game, drinking a bud

blue footed boobie posted:

What is even the appeal of the apex for the UFC? You would think they want to make money from the gates at arenas.

I guess they just want to pump out shittier and shittier events that no one will go to so they can bleed the ESPN contract for everything it’s worth.

They can't sell out areans when the cards are just DWCS fighters

COPE 27
Sep 11, 2006

They're becoming content creators instead of promoters

mewse
May 2, 2006

Snowman_McK posted:

I thought he was actually a pretty decent actor. It seemed like he could have had a decent niche as a character actor/heavy. Kind of like Lavell Crawford: someone who's intimidating looking but also has plenty of personality. Wonder what happened.

Rampage was a good actor in that A-Team reboot movie but there’s tons of footage of him being rapey with female reporters

Lucasar
Jan 25, 2005

save a few for lefty too

A Passing Feeling posted:

insert eight million Jon Jones quotes about taking three years to do it "the right way"

Can't believe the fight is this weekend. He's an absolute dickhead but I kind of just see Jones taking Gane down and being infinitely more experienced and better at grappling than him. Gane is technical, fast, and has great striking, but a one-legged Ngannou took him down. I just don't see it going well for him, as much as I want it to.

Thiago Santos drat near beat Jones with straight kickboxing and I don't see why Gane couldn't do the same. A range-y active striker is so far the type of fighter Jones has had the most difficulty with (Gus I, Santos, Reyes, OSP).

Snowman_McK
Jan 31, 2010

A Passing Feeling posted:

insert eight million Jon Jones quotes about taking three years to do it "the right way"

Can't believe the fight is this weekend. He's an absolute dickhead but I kind of just see Jones taking Gane down and being infinitely more experienced and better at grappling than him. Gane is technical, fast, and has great striking, but a one-legged Ngannou took him down. I just don't see it going well for him, as much as I want it to.

Ngannou is freakishly strong and big, even for a heavyweight. Jones spent five rounds barely able to contain a one legged version of a man who got finished by David Branch.

Goddamn, Jones' latter run at LHW is loving dire. LHW is pretty loving dire generally but when you don't have a decade of Pride and TUF promotion behind the contenders, you feel it so much more. We had shitloads of Pride era highlights to tell us Rampage was good, we didn't have that for Anthony Smith.

mewse posted:

Rampage was a good actor in that A-Team reboot movie but there’s tons of footage of him being rapey with female reporters

As if that's a barrier in Hollywood. But you're probably right and that would be fair enough. There's also that terrible, transphobic comedy sketch he did. I think it came out right around the time trans rights got a little bit into the mainstream. It was bad enough that even the Sherdog forums thought it was bad. Probably a combination of that, his baggage with reporters and him just getting fatter and a lot less intimidating looking over time.

Tom Clancy is Dead
Jul 13, 2011

Jones has looked pretty freaking terrible after the Cormier 2 fight. I'm sure it's a complete coincidence that was the fight that got overturned for PEDs. His offensive wrestling has regressed and his striking output has dropped especially in the clinch. As the division has gotten physically larger, he's struggled with people who have size parity and do not have to pressure to get through his reach.

Though he did truck the ghost of Gustafsson anyway.

I expect the most likely outcome is we'll see a slow paced kickboxing bout with Jones trying a couple of very awkward takedowns against the bigger man. They probably won't work and even if they do, he probably doesn't get much done with them. I think he's going to get jabbed up by Gane while landing some kicks and some inconsequential punches, and I feel like this might finally be the point where we see him crack and fall apart.

Jones is out of shape, moving up in weight, last looked good 5 years ago while doing PEDs, and is a 36 year old that has been fighting for 15 years at this point. The Jackson-Winklejohn camp that was a powerhouse when he was coming up has fallen apart.

But it's trashweight and Gane's TDD against chain wrestling sucks so really anything could happen.

blue footed boobie
Sep 14, 2012


UEFA SUPREMACY
Jones beat up Anthony Smith too for whatever that is worth (nothing) but yeah the talk about Jones at the end of his LHW run was whether he was just phoning it in because the competition was so lovely (it was really really lovely) or if he had actually lost it.

I personally don’t see how Jones wins against someone where he doesn’t have any obvious physical advantages, but I also have a sneaking feeling he’s going to make short work of Gane.

CarlCX
Dec 14, 2003

so, funny story about jones/gane predictions,

CARL'S FIGHT BREAKDOWNS, EPISODE 49: THE DEFINITION OF INSANITY

SATURDAY, MARCH 4TH FROM THE T-MOBILE ARENA IN PARADISE, NEVADA
EARLY PRELIMS 2:30 PM PST/5:30 PM EST VIA ESPN+ | PRELIMS 5:00 PM PST/8:00 PM EST VIA ESPN+ | MAIN CARD 7:00 PM PST/10:00 PM EST VIA PAY-PER-VIEW

The UFC heavyweight championship is the oldest extant major championship in mixed martial arts. The lineage of numerous mixed martial arts organizations run through it, from Strikeforce to Pride to Pancrase and even the ancient days of the Lumax Cup. For all of the numerous travails of the heavyweight division, it has existed as the sport's most enduring standard; a living link not just to the origins of the sport, but the offshoots it created around the world.

At the start of this year the UFC dumped it in the trash because Francis Ngannou wanted healthcare and a boxing match.

The UFC has spent weeks pointedly, emphatically referring to Jones and Gane as being for the undisputed heavyweight championship of the world. It is an attempt to proactively rewrite history. This is the most disputed heavyweight championship belt in mixed martial arts history. In 2008 a group of businessmen, sports agents and Russian managers welded some diamonds to a dinner plate, called it the World Alliance of Mixed Martial Arts championship, wrapped it around Fedor and called it the new top heavyweight title in the sport.

That was still better than this.

We're entering a new era of the sport, whether we like it or not. Come with me on this trip through Hell.


your featured prelim is the unintentionally suggestive cody garbrandt sadness hour

MAIN EVENT: SOMEHOW, PALPATINE RETURNED
HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP: Jon Jones (26-1 (1), NR) vs Ciryl Gane (11-1, #1)

Let us be unequivocal: This fight is large and momentous, and it also loving sucks. We live in a world of nuance where both things can be true.

Jon Jones is one of the most important fighters of all time. He's the best light-heavyweight in history by miles and the arguments for including him in the pound-for-pound greatest lists, while often irritating, aren't without merit. He's been talking about moving up to the heavyweight division for an entire decade, and even back in 2013, the idea piqued interest. Ciryl Gane is one of the best heavyweight strikers in the history of mixed martial arts. He walked into the UFC as a 3-0 rookie and was fighting for the world championship two years later. He's only lost once across two combat sports and a decade of competition, and in a game as zero-sum as heavyweight, that's an achievement.

Jon Jones is also a light-heavyweight. You cannot actually call him a heavyweight fighter until the bell actually rings to begin this fight, because he has never set foot in the weight class. His heavyweight record isn't even 0-0, it's just a piece of broken database code that reads NULL. Ciryl Gane is a fantastic heavyweight, even as the scab who participated in the most thoroughly ludicrous interim championship fight in company history, and he has every claim to a championship opportunity. He also got trucked by the actual, legitimate world champion a year ago.

This is a fight to crown a heavyweight champion in a division that already has a heavyweight champion. Instead of that champion, who will now wind up boxing in Britain or joining the Professional Fighters League or some other thorough injustice, this fight is between the man he handily defeated and a man who's never touched the weight class--or any other weight class, as he hasn't fought at all for three loving years--and one of them, one way or another, will be in the rankings next week as the greatest heavyweight on the planet.

And it's exhausting.

And if there's a single adjective to sum up the totality of the Jon Jones experience, "exhausting" might be the best.

There's a growing movement in MMA's social circles--mostly among his fans and ardent defenders of the UFC--that holds it's unfair to talk about Jon Jones for his many, many personal failings, as doing so gets in the way of what really matters: His contributions to the sport. Whatever happens in the rest of his life is irrelevant to the annals of combat sports, and all we should see fit to comment on, it is said, are his innumerable victories. Some, including Jones himself, would even like several of those sins stricken from the public record altogether. They're not relevant, and it's unfair to bring them up.

Motherfucker, I didn't bring them up, Jon Jones did. If he didn't want people dovetailing discussion of his personal crises into his professional record, maybe he shouldn't have kept getting stripped of world championships because he couldn't stop doing bad poo poo all of the time. You can't talk about his record without talking about his record because they're the same loving record. If you count interim championships, there have been 19 titles stripped from their champions in the history of the UFC. Jon Jones is three of them. 16% of all title strippings in the 30-year history of the company are Jon Jones-shaped, and that doesn't even include his dumping his title belt in the trash three years ago.

But there have also been reams of things written about the man. If you're reading this, statistically, you don't need me to tell you about his cocaine bust or his car crashes. You don't need me to tell you about his multiple positive drug tests, or the process of watching very serious drug testers explain that Jon Jones might continue to test positive for small amounts of steroids for the rest of his career and that was actually perfectly normal and fine. You almost certainly don't need me to tell you about his being one of the biggest assholes and hypocrites in the sport, a proud snitch covering up his own habits, a man who once paused in the middle of answering an interview question about his love for his family to hit on a waitress, a man who assaulted a hostess, assaulted his wife, got two DUIs and got away with all of it.

It's fine. We don't need to talk about it. His fans want to just talk about his record: We can just talk about his record.

But that, too, is less flattering than it might seem.

Let's be clear: Jon Jones is one of the baddest motherfuckers on the planet. However I may be about to demean his victories, his having gone virtually undefeated for eleven years is one of the most incredible accomplishments in the sport. Here's the thing with being that good for that long, though: Most of those incredible accomplishments are almost a decade old. Defeating eight world champions in 900 days? That's an insane thing to do. Practically unheard of. But it happened between 2010 and 2012. The last truly impressive performance Jon Jones had was knocking out Daniel Cormier in 2017, and thanks to his lust for turinabol, that fight technically didn't even happen.

So what were the last five fights of his career that did, in fact, happen?
  • A tentative decision victory over Ovince Saint Preux, who earned his title shot by beating Rafael Cavalcante, who went 1-4 in the UFC, was fired after the OSP fight and retired one bout later; OSP has since gone 7-10 and has been finished in six of those losses.
  • A knockout over Alexander Gustafsson, the only legally recognized finish Jones has recoded in the last ten years; Gustafsson has gone on to lose his next three fights, which have included two separate retirements.
  • A decision victory over career middleweight Anthony Smith that included drilling him in the head with an illegal knee; Smith has since gone 4-3, hasn't beaten a top ten opponent in four years, and has since been knocked out twice.
  • A close split decision victory over career middleweight Thiago Santos, who somehow tore his ACL, PCL, MCL and meniscus during the fight and yet Jon Jones still barely beat him; Santos would go on to lost four of his next five fights and get released in 2022.
  • A decision victory over Dominick Reyes that was, regardless of what the UFC says, a terrible decision that 3/4 of the media scored for Reyes; Reyes, who took Jon Jones to his absolute limit, has since gone 0-3 and been violently knocked out each time.
And that's the problem with judging Jon Jones based solely on his record: His recent record isn't very good. He's one of the best fighters in history, but he hasn't looked like that Jon Jones since 2017, and that fight is as far away from his most recent fight as his most recent fight is from today.

But if that's the present of Jon Jones, what does Ciryl Gane look like now that he's finally lost?

It's difficult to recalibrate after seeing Ciryl Gane get ragdolled by Francis Ngannou. Which is patently unfair. Gane isn't just 11-1, he's outstruck every opponent he's had in the UFC--including, hilariously enough, Francis Ngannou. Despite being a striker who ostensibly should have a striker's vulnerabilities, no one outside of Francis Ngannou has ever taken him down. In his run up to title contention Gane destroyed a former UFC champion in Junior dos Santos, dominated a championship kickboxer in Jairzinho Rozenstruik, outworked a great pressure fighter in Alexander Volkov and handed Derrick Lewis the most one-sided beating of his life.

Even in the wake of his championship defeat, Gane has looked good. He did outstrike Francis Ngannou while they were on their feet, he did threaten him with a heel hook in the final round of their fight, and he did rebound from his loss by beating just seventeen shades of poo poo out of Tai Tuivasa in September of last year. Even when Tai's super-powered brawling cracked Gane and dropped him to the canvas, Gane was back on his feet in seconds, recovered, composed, and nearly dropping Tai with body shots before finishing him in the next round after battering him liberally in the face.

That's the difference with Gane. I used the phrase "technical striker" to describe him, but in the history of heavyweight mixed martial arts, "technical striker" has been a deeply abused phrase. It's been used to compliment fighters who happened to be able to throw basic boxing combinations, or consistently land leg kicks, or, sometimes, even just periodically throw a jab. Ciryl Gane is, definitionally, an actual technical striker. He works behind strikes at every angle, he strings punches and kicks together seamlessly, he times out the rhythm of his opponents and breaks them down with jabs, he often wins striking battles by footwork alone. He's only been hurt on the feet once in his entire UFC tenure, it took one of the hardest punchers in the division to do it, and Gane's defensive instincts are honed well enough that he was back in control of the striking exchanges immediately.

In theory, that's a problem for Jon Jones. The greatest struggles he's had in his career came from long, rangy strikers who could cut through his massive 84" reach and force him to shell up. And every one of those strikers was less skilled--and considerably smaller--than Ciryl Gane. Jones has never had to contend with this level of expertise, nor an opponent who's just, plainly, as loving huge as he is.

But Gane hasn't had to contend with a wrestler like Jon. We're only one fight removed from watching Gane struggle with the wrestling of Francis Ngannou, which, while surprising, was inherently raw and more based on power and timing than technique. Jon Jones does not have this problem. Jon Jones takes down championship wrestlers. If you're Ciryl Gane, and arguably your most valuable weapons are your kicks, you're suddenly very aware of the fact that one caught kick could easily lead to a takedown that costs you a round, if not the entire fight.

Of course, that, too, presupposes that Jon Jones still looks like Jon Jones. Not only has Jon Jones not looked great in a long while, not only has Jon Jones not had a fight in three years, but we've never seen Jon Jones at heavyweight, and the condition he shows up in will deeply inform his success. Did he intelligently, gradually pack on muscle to improve his power and explosiveness? Or is he carrying extra weight that's just going to slow him down and make him gas out faster?

After a three-year layoff that sees the Jon Jones of 2023 entering his mid-thirties, will he still look good at all?

And that's the most irritating part of every Jon Jones fight. I can say all of these things; all of these things are correct; it's totally possible they'll be completely irrelevant. A Jon Jones fan will listen to them and reply "yeah, but he's Jon Jones," and irritatingly, they might have a god damned point. As much as his reach and cardio and horrifying knee-kicks, adaptability is one of the greatest weapons in his arsenal. Even in the Dominick Reyes fight that I believe he lost, Jones picked up his game and won the championship rounds.

Unless he packed on a bunch of muscle and finds after three rounds he can't breathe anymore.

CIRYL GANE BY TKO. Look, it's a Jon Jones fight. Anything can happen, up to and including the fight never actually starting because Jones shot up a Vegas nightclub after the weigh-ins. If Jones can consistently catch Gane's kicks, or get inside and force him to fight at length in the clinch, Gane's in trouble. But Gane's control of range, Jones' historical trouble with anyone who can outbox him and the reality of having to fight a heavyweight who hits as hard as a heavyweight can for the first time make me desperately, desperately hope that finally, once and for all, we get to see Jon Jones eat poo poo. Jon Jones hasn't learned from a single mistake in his life and I'm hoping he'll continue that practice here.

Please don't gently caress it up, Ciryl.

CO-MAIN EVENT: THE LAURYN HILL ALBUM THAT NEVER CAME OUT
WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP: Valentina Shevchenko (23-3, Champion) vs Alexa Grasso (15-3, #6)

And then, on the topic of the mixed martial arts fanbase and its centering of What Have You Done For Me Lately as a core belief, we have Valentina Shevchenko.

Valentina's last fight was a title defense against Taila Santos in June. Let me take you back to a younger, more innocent Carl:

CarlCX posted:

It would be deeply disrespectful to say Taila Santos cannot win this fight. She's a very capable fighter with notable skills. Her trips and throws out of the clinch are solid. Her top game may not always produce finishes, but her control is very difficult to break. Joanne Wood's chin can attest to the power she carries when she connects cleanly, and in twenty bouts, no one's managed to stop her. She's tough as nails.

She was also getting lit up by Joanne Wood until she landed that bomb. She was also getting repeatedly scrambled and threatened by Gillian Robertson to the point that her offense dwindled to nothing and she nearly got submitted. It may still be disrespectful to say Taila Santos is getting this fight because women's flyweight is a graveyard full of corpses Valentina Shevchenko lovingly planted, but it doesn't make it not true. Valentina Shevchenko by decision. There are a whole bunch of ways she can win this fight and none of them would be a surprise.
I have rarely been so wrong while still being right. Valentina did win by decision, but the method was, in fact a surprise--because it was a split decision, because Santos ragdolled Valentina for two and a half rounds and nearly submitted her. Shevchenko adjusted, took over the championship rounds and ultimately won, and realistically, it's also impressive to adjust on the fly and shut down any gameplan that's been stifling you, but her stock with the fanbase took a massive hit even in the wake of her victory. Why?

To once again quote Past Carl:

CarlCX posted:

Where names like Anderson Silva and Matt Hughes get free-associated with immaculate striking or wrestling, Valentina Shevchenko is cursed by being known not so much for her skills as for the massive loving chasm between her skills and those of her competitors.
A few minutes ago we were discussing Jon Jones, the legacy you pick up from dominating a division, and how that legacy can bite you in the rear end when you seemingly underperform it. Valentina Shevchenko is the second-greatest female fighter of all time. She's an openly ridiculous 12-2 in the UFC, those two losses came against Amanda Nunes, the only woman better than her, and the second was a split decision that could easily have gone the other way. Valentina has been making everyone not named Amanda Nunes look silly for years.

And she almost lost her last fight. When you've been dominating the opposition for years, almost losing has an effect on your popular perception you have to measure in the Richter scale. After years of effortlessly transitioning between hammering people on the feet and mauling them on the ground, entire thinkpieces were written and rewritten about Valentina Shevchenko's chances against the growing legion of power grapplers in her division like Santos, or Erin Blanchfield, or even the returning Tatiana Suarez.

So the UFC decided to make all of them irrelevant and have her face boxing specialist Alexa Grasso.

In some ways, it's kind of a baffling choice. Manon Fiorot won an openly-advertised title eliminator and is ranked #1, Taila Santos very nearly beat the champion and is ranked #2, Jéssica Andrade had just completed a successful return and was ranked #3. Alexa Grasso has actually lost a place in the rankings since this fight was announced: Erin Blanchfield's victory over Andrade propelled her to #3, dropped Andrade to #4 and kicked Katlyn Chookagian into #5.

Alexa Grasso is getting a title shot from her demoted position as #6. Alexa Grasso has, in fact, never fought anyone in the top five. It's one of those fun tricks you can do when your rankings are not, strictly speaking, real. Last March, Grasso was #9 and fighting the #7 ranked Joanne Wood; after defeating her, Grasso was #5.

And if it were anyone other than Alexa Grasso, that'd all be weird. With her, it makes a surprising amount of sense. To dig back into Past Carl:

CarlCX posted:

I complain on a weekly basis about how poorly the UFC gets visibility on its fighters. I will almost assuredly do it later on this very card. Alexa Grasso is an extremely notable exception. In nine UFC fights across just under six years, despite never reaching a championship match, Alexa Grasso has only been on the undercard once, which you cannot say about nearly any other woman at either of her UFC divisions. Even current champion Carla Esparza was back on the undercard a few fights before her title victory. Grasso's opponent tonight, Viviane Araújo, was booked on one of the most cursed UFC cards of all time, Overeem vs Sakai, which saw so many injury and COVID pullouts that it wound up being a single, seven-fight televised special with no undercard and Araújo was still booked on just the second fight of the night. Alexa Grasso once missed weight AND won a tepid split decision, two things the UFC loathes above all else, and she was still co-main eventing the next card.
It often takes the UFC awhile to invest in a talent, let alone in the persistently ignored women's divisions. The UFC, unusually, has been all-in on Alexa Grasso for years. They've been trying to push her into title contention since 2019. Ordinarily this is where I complain about promotional favoritism or bad matchmaking or the legacy of Conor McGregor, but this is not that. Alexa Grasso hasn't gotten easy matchups or tune-up fights or the benefits of overmarketing--she's just been smartly managed and given difficult but sensible opportunities to shine in places people could actually see her.

If the UFC promoted everyone as well as they promoted her the sport could be very, very different.

But, hey: They did it right this time, and while it took a few more years than they anticipated, we're here. Alexa Grasso has a shot at the most dominant champion in women's mixed martial arts.

And she's a +500 underdog.

And that's probably fair.

Alexa Grasso is a very good fighter. She might have the best pure boxing technique in women's mixed martial arts and the last several years have seen marked improvements in her leg kicks, her clinch control and her defensive grappling. But those skills are all thoroughly aided by her ability to keep opponents stuck on the end of her fists.

Valentina Shevchenko is, still, one of the most multifaceted strikers the division has ever seen. Grasso may have better hands, but she doesn't have better shins, elbows or knees, nor the ability to mix them up. Moreover, while her takedown defense may be improved, it's still not great: Maycee Barber and Viviane Araújo both got her to the floor and spent multiple minutes controlling her.

Can Grasso make this fight competitive? Absolutely. The more she sticks and moves with the jab, the more she dictates the distance and forces Shevchenko to engage in a prolonged boxing match rather than finding her rhythm with kicks, let alone landing clinch trips, the better she will do. Will she manage it for five rounds? Probably not. VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO BY DECISION.

MAIN CARD: THE ONRUSHING FUTURE
:piss:WELTERWEIGHT: Geoff Neal (15-4, #7) vs Shavkat Rakhmonov (16-0, #10):piss:

This is the poo poo I'm here for. Get the gently caress out of here with your historically important heavyweight championship fights, I'm here for welterweight contendership.

Geoff Neal was the fourth person ever offered a contract through the Contender Series, and he was one of the show's biggest success stories, an almost immediate welterweight standout with a five-fight UFC streak that included four devastating stoppages and an extremely well-aging decision over Belal Muhammad. Unfortunately, like so many prospects, he was dashed on the jagged cliffside that is Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson, getting completely shut out on the scorecards by Thompson's striking expertise and outworked by Neil Magny immediately thereafter. There were some fears that Neal would slip into the gatekeeper vortex, but a close decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio put him back on the upswing and becoming the first man to ever knock out global violence king Vicente Luque propelled him to the highest ranking of his life. Suddenly, Geoff Neal is within reach of a title shot.

But he's gotta defend his spot against Shavkat Rakhmonov, and boy, that's a big loving ask. I know I've quoted my past writeups a whole bunch today, but I'm gonna do it again, because a point about Shavkat Rakhmonov needs emphasizing.

CarlCX posted:

He's never been taken down, he's excellent at both maintaining range and stringing together combinations, he's dropped his last two opponents with spinning wheel kicks to the goddamn head between effective wrestling and grappling exchanges. Shavkat Rakhmonov has dropped all three of his UFC opponents en route to finishing them and he's done it by landing a grand total of 47 significant strikes in three fights. That translates to just about one knockdown per every dozen significant strikes landed. I cannot begin to tell you how batshit of a statistic that is.
The UFC put Shavkat up against Neil Magny, one of the most resilient people in the division, to see how Shavkat did under duress when he couldn't simply blow someone out of the water like that. And he just shrugged and did it again anyway. He stung Magny with punches, he busted his ribs with a spinning wheel kick, he repeatedly took him down with ease and he choked him out with just ten seconds left in a round just because he could. Only four people have submitted Neil Magny: Three of them were highly-decorated world champions in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and the other was Shavkat Rakhmonov.

Rakhmonov's a -500 favorite, and that, too, is a measure of expectation. We haven't seen him struggle in a fight--NO one has seen him struggle in a fight--because he simply hasn't. He hasn't just won every fight in his professional career, he's never even made it to a third round. It's already difficult to imagine him in trouble, and it's particularly difficult to imagine that trouble coming from Geoff Neal, a man who struggled heavily with the same Neil Magny Shavkat balled up and chucked into a dumpster.

Neal's by no means defenseless here. As most of the division can attest, he's got dangerous hands and reasonable counter-wrestling. But unless he surprises Shavkat by swarming him early or he lures Shavkat into prolonged boxing exchanges, this fight seems destined to end on the ground. SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV BY SUBMISSION.

:piss:LIGHTWEIGHT: Mateusz Gamrot (21-2 (1), #7) vs Jalin Turner (13-5, #10):piss:

This fight was a late addition to the card, but boy, it's an interesting one.

Mateusz Gamrot was poised to be one of the next big things up until a few months ago. A champion in his native Poland, an inexhaustible grappler, a man who had torn off Jeremy Stephens' arm in sixty seconds, faced defeat only once in a split decision against the masterful Guram Kutateladze, run up a four-fight win streak and joined the top ten of the lightweight shark tank after winning one of 2022's best fights against Arman Tsarukyan, Gamrot was ending 2022 with an incredible amount of momentum. And then he met the constantly underrated Beneil Dariush and got humbled, missing 15 out of 19 takedown attempts, managing an average of just 30 seconds of control for the four he landed, and getting outstruck almost two to one in the process. There was no split-decision asterisk: Gamrot had truly failed the biggest test of his career.

Jalin Turner is his path back to the top. Turner, a giant 6'3" lightweight with a reach advantage over almost everyone in the division, was supposed to have a big, silly striking battle with fellow tall brawler Dan Hooker, but a hand injury forced him out and Gamrot was the only ranked lightweight willing to risk the fight on two weeks' notice. Make no mistake: It's a big loving risk. Jalin Turner is a killing machine. He has yet to win a fight by decision, because every time he wins he does it by either knocking an opponent loopy with punches and kicks from a mile away or wrapping them up and choking them out. He hits hard, he's great at intercepting opponents on their way in, and only three of those eighteen opponents have managed to survive past the second round against him.

Here's the thing, though: All three of them beat him. Every time Turner's been taken into deep waters, he's drowned. His style kind of depends on it. He throws so much into his strikes that it's hard to have anything left if they don't get the job done. And against a living energizer bunny like Gamrot, that's a big problem. This is a Turner's top-ten test, and it's going to be remarkably hard to pass. MATEUSZ GAMROT BY DECISION.

MIDDLEWEIGHT: Bo Nickal (3-0) vs Jamie Pickett (13-8)

Remember how I waxed rhapsodic about Alexa Grasso and good, decent promotion? This is the opposite. This is the thing we're getting a lot more often nowadays. Bo Nickal had official MMA management and agented representation before he even started training, thanks to his being one of the most decorated amateur wrestlers of the last decade, a three-time NCAA champion, three-time Big Ten champion, one-time national champion and one-time world champion. When he finally left wrestling behind to focus on MMA his record was 120-3, and he'd beaten the only two people to make him lose.

His road to the UFC is a sign of exactly how silly their promotional game has become. He was invited to the Contender Series in August of last year, won his fight by submission in one minute without taking a single punch, and was denied a contract anyway because, as Dana White said, he was too inexperienced--despite Dana White having invited him to compete on the show where you win contracts. He was, instead, booked to show up on the Contender Series again six weeks later, where he once again won by submission in a single minute, and magically, one month and one fight later, Dana no longer objected to his joining the UFC.

Jamie Pickett was hand-picked as his opponent for a pay-per-view debut back in December, but Nickal had to pull out with an injury. Rather than replace him or rebook Pickett, they simply told him to wait three more months. This is, of course, because Pickett is here to lose. "The Night Wolf" is a 2-4 UFC fighter who actually needed three attempts at the Contender Series to get a contract, and he has been pointedly, and repeatedly, outwrestled by much, much less accomplished wrestlers. The UFC kept him this long specifically so he could get wrestled into nothingness by Bo Nickal, who they absolutely see as a future star.

But at the same time--I can't really complain about the matchmaking, can I? Bo Nickal may be a super-wrestler, but he's also 3-0. It's not like he spent a lot of time honing his craft on the amateur circuit, either; his entire amateur career was two fights in six weeks. Most 3-0 fighters are taking on rookies in smoky barrooms. This fight may be a softball for Bo, but it's also, still, a 3-0 rookie with less than a year of mixed martial arts experience taking on a twenty-one fight veteran who's been in combat sports since 2008.

It's a squash match, but if you're carrying out squash matches at this point in your career, you're still pretty loving impressive. BO NICKAL BY SUBMISSION.

PRELIMS: PICKING UP THE PIECES
BANTAMWEIGHT: Cody Garbrandt (12-5) vs Trevin Jones (13-9 (1))

How low the mighty. In 2016, Cody Garbrandt was the most exciting fighter on the planet. He was an undefeated 10-0, he had ridiculous power in his hands for a bantamweight, and he'd just ended the eight undefeated years of bantamweight GOAT Dominick Cruz's run by not just beating him but humiliating him, dropping him repeatedly and very literally dancing in front of him, wresting away his bantamweight world championship in the process. If you weren't watching at the time, it is impossible to overstate how shocking and exciting Garbrandt's rise was. And it's matched only by the sheer velocity of his fall from grace. Garbrandt has dropped five of his last six fights, and four of those losses were violent, definitive knockouts. He even tried to take refuge by dropping to flyweight, only to eat the fastest knockout loss of his career.

He was intended to fight Julio Arce here, but an injury and a replacement means he's now facing the embattled "5 Star" Trevin Jones. Trevin was a late-injury replacement signing for the UFC, and he shocked them by knocking top prospect Timur Valiev the gently caress out--a huge win that was immediately taken away because he dared to smoke marijuana. He scored another knockout in his next fight, but it's all been downhill from there: Three straight losses, none of which were particularly competitive. Jones has powerful striking, solid wrestling and a hell of a chin, but he's been unable to put those skills back together in quite some time, and after so many losses in a row, it's tough to get your mind back into the fight game--especially when you're fighting on a month's notice.

But he's also fighting Cody Garbrandt, who's got a 5" reach disadvantage, a string of brutal knockout losses, and a tendency to never, ever keep his chin covered. If Garbrandt lands, he can knock out anyone in the division and probably the next two above him. But TREVIN JONES BY KNOCKOUT is just too easy to see happening again.

:piss:MIDDLEWEIGHT: Derek Brunson (23-8, #5) vs Dricus du Plessis (18-2, #10):piss:

Derek Brunson was so goddamn close, man. 2022 saw the third time eternal contender Derek Brunson got ejected from the title picture. In 2016 his five-fight streak was ended by Robert Whittaker, his 2018 comeback ended thanks to Jacare Souza, and after putting together another five victories he was felled, once again, by the vicious elbows of Jared Cannonier. Brunson's one of the best middleweights in the sport's history--no, really, come back, I mean it, he's been in the top ten for basically an entire decade and his only losses in that time came from champions or #1 contenders, that poo poo's not easy. His long punches and power wrestling are deceptively good and have made fools of many a man, and everyone who's underestimated him has paid dearly.

But Dricus du Plessis is a puzzling fighter. It's hard to say this without feeling like I am insulting the man, so I want to be clear that the following is a compliment: He is remarkably adept at looking terrible and somehow still completely winning fights. He'll spam leg kicks and get repeatedly countered, he'll blitz wildly forward and get torn up on entry, and even while winning striking exchanges he eats fists upside the head. The two times we've seen him reach the third round of a fight, he's looked exhausted. And he wins anyway, and I cannot overstate how impressive that is. He's so determined in his approach to fighting that his appearance of weakness becomes itself a strength, allowing him to draw opponents in only to overwhelm them and drown them in offense.

This fight is remarkably difficult to predict. Brunson has the wrestling offense to shut du Plessis down, but du Plessis has proved remarkably difficult to keep down, and unlike du Plessis, when Brunson gets tired, he's cooked, and at 39 his gas tank isn't getting any better. I still think we'll see DEREK BRUNSON BY DECISION, but that's dependent on his ability to manhandle du Plessis while staying away from his blitzes. If he can't keep du Plessis either down or away from him, it's going to get ugly.

WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT: Viviane Araújo (11-4, #8) vs Amanda Ribas (11-3, #15)

And here, we have the battle of the contenders that never were. Viviane Araújo has some solid all-around talents, but her bread and butter is positional control grappling. She has, in fact, managed only one finish in the UFC, a shock big-right-hand knockout of Talita Bernardo in her debut back in 2019. Everything else has been variations on fighting to a decision. But she's also made it through the UFC without ever getting stopped herself, and arguably, she beat neverending top contender Katlyn Chookagian only to get boned out of a decision because we now live in a judging hellworld where landing a few right hands outweighs holding mount and threatening submissions for half the round. But Viviane's last fight against Alexa Grasso was the first time in her UFC tenure that she's been shut out, going 2 for 10 on her takedowns and getting outboxed all night.

So the company is giving her a fight to determine the best fighter who maybe beat Katlyn Chookagian only to not get the decision. Here's the thing: Amanda Ribas is a strawweight. She's 5'3", she's lightly built, her gameplan revolves around outworking and outspeeding her opponents, and the UFC has been slightly mad at her ever since she foiled their plans by ending Mackenzie Dern's undefeated streak. Her knockout loss to Marina Rodriguez was an unfortunate way to lose the hope of title contendership, but boy, when she took that flyweight fight with Chookagian I was deeply hoping it would be temporary, but no, she's staying at 125 pounds, I guess, where she's the second-smallest woman in the division and every single fight puts her at a stark disadvantage.

That said: AMANDA RIBAS BY DECISION. We just saw Viviane get controlled by a faster, sharper boxer, and Ribas is every bit both of those things all over again. Ribas should be able to outwork her for fifteen minutes.

MIDDLEWEIGHT: Julian Marquez (9-3) vs Marc-André Barriault (14-6 (1))

At UFC 258 back in 2021, Julian Marquez scored a really neat anaconda choke, used his post-fight interview to ask Miley Cyrus out on a date, and when Miley Cyrus, who is famously down for bad ideas, gave him the slightest bit of attention, he immediately fumbled the bag by telling her to get his name (temporarily) tattooed on her body. For the crime of being a huge idiot "The Cuban Missile Crisis" was cursed by the violence gods to miss the next full year of his career thanks to health issues, and when he finally came back last June, he was immediately punched out by Gregory Rodrigues.

Marc-André Barriault is, like, barely hanging on, but that's how it's always been. He lost his first three UFC fights, he lost his first win thanks to a positive drug test for ostarine, he managed to string two victories together and then he got flattened in sixteen seconds by Chidi Njokuani. It's been back and forth since: He choked out Jordan Wright, he got choked out by Anthony Hernandez. Does his back-and-forth record mean he'll win this fight? Are his abrupt chokes better than Julian's abrupt chokes? Does this fight mean the birth of a new contender?

Or is this just the middle of middleweight, a swirling void into which talent is thrown when the UFC has nothing else to do with them, so they can roll around and try stuff they saw in the gym a couple times and maybe scrape an extra win together so the UFC knows who to feed to Leonard Kickman, the next big Contender Series middleweight winner who says something racist enough that Dana thinks he can make money?

You decide. JULIAN MARQUEZ BY SUBMISSION.

EARLY PRELIMS: FILING YOUR FORMS IN DUPLICATE
:piss:WELTERWEIGHT: Ian Garry (10-0) vs Song Kenan (18-6):piss:

It's rubber-meets-the-road time for the UFC's big Conor McGregor cloning experiment. Ian "The Future" Garry, the only McGregor successor so blatant as to just straight up quote his post-fight promos in place of his own, has been getting a drip-feed of favorable matches for the last year and a half as the UFC has tried to build him up to relevant competition. Song Kenan is, somehow, both. He's Garry's first UFC opponent with a winning record under its banner, he's a tough, powerful striker with hands heavy enough to match Garry's knockout power, and he's got enough of a jab to disrupt the 'I'm just going to walk you down and kill you' gameplan Garry tends to favor. He also got knocked the gently caress out two years ago and hasn't competed since.

Song could win. He's dangerous. But the UFC is banking on both the likelihood that Song will engage Garry in the kind of fight he's best at and the likelihood that after two years of nothingness Song will be just rusty enough to get dusted. And they're probably right. IAN GARRY BY TKO.

BANTAMWEIGHT: Cameron Saaiman (7-0) vs Mana Martinez (10-3)

I had Cameron Saaiman picked to easily win his UFC debut back in December; he wound up in the toughest fight of his life and scraped a last-minute standing TKO together to save himself from what was probably going to be a draw. Was that stage fright, or are there just levels to this game and Steven "Obi Won Shinobi The Pillow" Koslow is higher level than anyone thought? I hope we never have to find out, because every time I type his nickname it takes two minutes off of my life. But Saaiman proved he could gut out a hard, scrappy brawl, which is probably why the UFC was eager to toss him in with Mana Martinez, whose 2-1 success with the company has come entirely from split decisions thanks to equally memorably scrappy brawling. The solemn hope is they'll get three rounds of wild facepunching.

I'm not convinced. Mana was a little warier in his last fight--which is good, that's a sign of maturing and bodes well for his future--and I'm choosing to arbitrarily believe Saaiman's going to look less nervous, half because he got his debut out of the way and half because he's not fighting a power wrestler anymore. CAMERON SAAIMAN BY DECISION.

WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT: Jessica Penne (14-6) vs Tabatha Ricci (7-1)

I feel like we're nearing the end of the Jessica Penne story. Just six fights ago she was fighting for the strawweight championship and lasting three (one-sided) rounds with the best in the world: In the time since she is 2-4, and that encompassed a four-year layoff followed by two fights followed by another year of injuries. Her fight last July was her first in almost twelve months, and against a last-minute replacement in Emily Ducote, a smaller fighter who would go on to get outworked by a 50/50 Angela Hill, Penne got beaten so badly she limped out of the cage on one functional leg with one functional eye. She's incredibly tough, she's got a ton of heart, but she also turned 40 this year. The good news for her is Tabatha Ricci is a much less fearsome striker; the bad news is she's one of the best grapplers in the division. One fight ago Ricci was walking through the offense of Polyana Viana, herself a power puncher and by no means a bad grappler, and taking her and controlling her at will. Ricci's grappling also makes her good at stifling offense by spamming kicks, as she has no fear of them getting her taken down.

It's been almost a decade since Jessica Penne was submitted, but TABATHA RICCI BY SUBMISSION seems likely.

BANTAMWEIGHT: Farid Basharat (9-0) vs Da'Mon Blackshear (12-4-1)

We're entering a bold new era of brothers in the UFC, and Farid Basharat is the latest beneficiary but also a demonstration of its biggest problem: He and his brother Javid are basically the same fighter. They both got their contracts through the Contender Series, they're both very smart, quick strikers who like to circle away, peck with jabs and leg kicks to break their opponents down and close to either uncork straights or dive on single-legs, and they're both undefeated career bantamweights fighting in the UFC's bantamweight division. So I am, admittedly, not sure what the endgame is here. It's not like one of them is better suited for a different weight class, they're separated by less than an inch of height, so is the master plan that they beat every bantamweight in the world other than each other, cut the world championship in half and reign as co-champions like Laycool did in the WWE? Either way, he's probably going to beat Da'Mon Blackshear, who made his UFC debut last year as a heralded prospect and regional champion which still only got him the chance to jump on a card as a late injury replacement, put in a good two rounds against Youssef Zalal, and then got beaten so badly in the final round that he got stuck with a draw.

I don't necessarily hold that against him--Zalal's tough and coming in late is always hard--but Blackshear's aggression and quick, jumping attacks, which served him well on the regional scene, were already problematic against a grappler like Zalal. Against a counterstriker like Farid, it graduates to outright liability. FARID BASHARAT BY DECISION.

LIGHTWEIGHT: Loik Radzhabov (16-4-1) vs Esteban Ribovics (11-0)

I gotta tell you, this fight ticks all my boxes. Is Esteban Ribovics yet another Contender Series winner who clearly has all-around skills and chose to ignore them in favor of charging across the cage to throw hands while not protecting himself whatsoever? You bet. Did he get picked up by the UFC's talent scouts because he fought for Samurai Fight House, the record padding factory that put his 9-0 record against a guy who was 6-5? You're god drat right he did. Is his opponent Loik Radzhabov a credible fighter who despite multiple accomplishments only got booked on the card thanks to the need for a last-minute injury replacement? gently caress yes he is. Did Loik almost win the Professional Fighters League Lightweight Championship in 2021, only to get outfought until he gassed out thanks to Anthony Pettis destroyer Raush Manfio, leading to Loik going to the Khabib-inflated Eagle FC just a few months before it died? One hundred percent.

Is the UFC hoping their fun brawler beats the Tajikistani wrestler? Absolutely. Am I going to pick that way? You'll have to loving kill me first. LOIK RADZHABOV BY DECISION.

Fozzy The Bear
Dec 11, 1999

Nothing much, watching the game, drinking a bud
What did Tabatha Ricci do to you? Why haven't you read her wiki page?

ilmucche
Mar 16, 2016

quote:

man who once paused in the middle of answering an interview question about his love for his family to hit on a waitress

I did not know about this one.

Card sounds great, will make for some good Sunday post-f1 watching

CarlCX
Dec 14, 2003

i really need to finish my templating for graphics to replace the loving wikipedia graphics

Ringo Roadagain
Mar 27, 2010

the last dude jones fought, who he just barely managed to eek out a 3-2 decision against, has gone on to get koed in his 3 following fights. Ill be very surprised if jones wins. or ill be surprised if he wins then doesn't piss hot.

chaleski
Apr 25, 2014

ilmucche posted:

I did not know about this one.

Card sounds great, will make for some good Sunday post-f1 watching

It's from this excellent article

Snowman_McK
Jan 31, 2010
The absolute most amazing Jon Jones thing, and there are many, was the headbutting of the car. When he was arrested for domestic violence (within 12 hours of being inducted in the UFC hall of fame, no less) the police report included 'suspect headbutted a police car' and you'd be forgiven for being suspiscious. He's a black guy, confronting the police in the US. That could be a euphemism for 'we smashed his head into the car.' then the video came out and he straight head butts the car, while handcuffed, as hard as he can.

blue footed boobie posted:

Jones beat up Anthony Smith too for whatever that is worth (nothing) but yeah the talk about Jones at the end of his LHW run was whether he was just phoning it in because the competition was so lovely (it was really really lovely) or if he had actually lost it.

I personally don’t see how Jones wins against someone where he doesn’t have any obvious physical advantages, but I also have a sneaking feeling he’s going to make short work of Gane.

I don't really see the argument for him just phoning it in because the competition is lovely. Surely you just win quickly so you can go home, instead of winning so badly you nearly lose to a one legged man who, it really needs to be repeated, lost to David Branch...like...barely a year beforehand. The same argument got used when Anderson Silva fought weirdly against Leites and Maia. It was just that they didn't give him the openings he needed for his counter striking, so he was forced to fight worse.

I think Jones is a headcase. I've been seeing his tweets this week and it's all stuff about how bad Gane's resume is, how good his own is. He does seem to be gassing himself up, trying to talk himself into having some confidence. Rashad talked years ago about how weird he was and how much of his mentality is needing self belief and grounds for confidence.

There's also the stories of how much of a massive drinker he is. He would get blackout drunk most nights up until two weeks before the fight. It was so he had an excuse if he lost. Even if he's stopped doing that, and you'd bloody hope so, that takes a toll on your body. Drinking abusively while also training multiple hours a day, that poo poo knocks you around. He's my age and he looks about 8 years older than me, and I didn't have superhuman genes to start with.

ilmucche posted:

I did not know about this one.

Card sounds great, will make for some good Sunday post-f1 watching

In the same interview he talked about how important being straight edge is to him while having drugs delivered.

COPE 27
Sep 11, 2006

Snowman_McK posted:

The absolute most amazing Jon Jones thing, and there are many, was the headbutting of the car. When he was arrested for domestic violence (within 12 hours of being inducted in the UFC hall of fame, no less) the police report included 'suspect headbutted a police car' and you'd be forgiven for being suspiscious. He's a black guy, confronting the police in the US. That could be a euphemism for 'we smashed his head into the car.' then the video came out and he straight head butts the car, while handcuffed, as hard as he can.

Only loss on his record from DQing a police car smh

Digital Jedi
May 28, 2007

Fallen Rib
Get your picks in!
https://www.tapology.com/groups/998

Mekchu
Apr 10, 2012

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

CarlCX posted:

I think champions going up in weight to fight other champions is hard to justify in general if you care about divisional matchmaking, and the thing that makes it better is their having sufficiently dominated their field of contenders such that there isn't anything to accomplish at their primary weight class for a period of time. People felt iffy about Izzy challenging Jan because at that point he'd only defended the belt twice, one of those defenses was the extremely weird Romero fight, and he hadn't fought Cannonier or given Whittaker his extremely well-earned rematch. By contrast, Volkanovski had four defenses, the last three were absurdly definitive, and until Yair beat Emmett (and if Allen beats Holloway) no one in the entire top ten had a real claim to a shot. The acceptability hinges on how many questions the fans feel the champion has left unanswered.

In the case of Jon Jones, his justification for a heavyweight title shot is his light-heavyweight greatness, but he's only actually fought two people currently in the entire light-heavyweight top fifteen, one of those fights was four years ago, and the other was against the #11 guy in the division who's on a four-fight losing streak and he arguably won. There's nothing BUT questions about how Jones would do against the light-heavyweight division right now, and that makes the proposition feel worse.

Also he's a dickhead.

The argument I have for Izzy is that he more or less cleaned out the division, aside from Cannonier, in his build up to the title win and they were all fairly strong wins in his favor. Kelvin was the only "oh maybe he could lose here" fight he had in his road to the title. He starched Bobby and while Bobby had worked his way back up a bit, losing the title via KO is hard to come back and justify a rematch over as compared to a decision loss. Add in that LHW was pretty much dead at that point thanks to Jones and just it being a bad division it was more or less a "yeah sure why not you're a hot talent right now" kind of thing that isn't too absurd.

Mekchu fucked around with this message at 07:15 on Mar 3, 2023

Benson Cunningham
Dec 9, 2006

Chief of J.U.N.K.E.R. H.Q.
Most of what CarlCX called sounds right, but I do think Dricus Du Plessis is going to drop Brunson, who really looked his age against Cannonier. My guess is that this is the beginning of the end for Brunson, and that this fight ends up being pretty lopsided for Du Plessis.

TheKingslayer
Sep 3, 2008

Honestly I love DDP so far. Watching him win in spite of looking like the most gassed man on Earth for 2/3 of the fight is great.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Josuke Higashikata
Mar 7, 2013


The argument for champ Vs champ is that the UFC has abandoned all pretense of being a sport based on merit and is based on potential sales factors.


Which makes the non advertisement of Volk Islam even more baffling.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply