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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
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zone
Dec 6, 2016
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1632013180749639681
:downsrim:

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zone
Dec 6, 2016

KazigluBey posted:

I can't believe America forced innocent Russian soldiers to do this...

Just ask Sergey Lavrov, he definitely thinks Ukraine attacked them first when he came to India and got laughed at for his pains.

zone
Dec 6, 2016
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1632337547392155650
Imagine burning ambulances.

zone
Dec 6, 2016
New Girkin vs. Prigozhin dropped.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1632328568398139395
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1632413697523044354
As usual, Prigozhin has nothing concrete to offer except juvenile attempts at trolling.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

tiaz posted:

:emptyquote:


I'm very curious to see how Russia goes about trying to sell Bakhmut as a huge game-changer when they finally take those few square km of bombed out rubble.

Anyone that thinks capturing Bakhmut and Soledar and the nearby towns will be some gigantic "victory" for Russia will probably get extremely frustrated at finding out they have to repeat it all over again along the next defensive lines. And there's enough room to repeat this process as many times as needed. Remember that with the capture of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk last year the whole Russian offensive culminated, forming the conditions necessary for the Kharkiv and Kherson offensive.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Hollismason posted:

So have the tanks arrived in Ukraine yet? Whats going on with that?

Tanks are arriving bit by bit, but the next major offensive will be in April onward depending on the weather conditions, however Ukraine might still decide to buy further time to accumulate more resources even if conditions seem favorable.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Der Kyhe posted:

Much depends on how well the Ukrainian counter attack this Spring works out. If it leads to another large-scale Russian withdrawal on some front then this might be over in a nearish future (1-2 years or so).

Otherwise it will be this, grind for small towns and minor cities until foreseeable future, until something in the Russian leadership changes, or western support implodes.

The bottleneck for this war is russian materiel rather than their numbers of soldiers under arms. They're already resorting to making strange Frankenstein's monster type technicals, such as the MT-LB with the naval gun mounted on top. The rate of losses of tanks and IFVs don't even match their rate of restoration or production per year even if you only use Oryx's list of battlefield equipment losses. Within another year, I would find myself surprised if Russia has anything approaching an actual land army left.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Toxic Mental posted:

lol He's really doing the "take my ball and going home" threat? I know he looks like a baby but god drat

I wonder if he isn't obliquely mentioning the rumor that Wagner was reportedly told to pack their bags and leave the battlefront, and go back to Russia, around when he got into trouble with both Gerasimov and Shoigu and Putin by extension.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Der Kyhe posted:

Well, short answer yes I agree. But the longer answer, the grind can work both ways, towards Dnieper or towards borders. Since Ukrainian armed forces realistically cannot go beyond the 1994 borders, there really is nothing stopping the Russian high command from keeping the grind up, even if the front goes to follow the actual borders. Eastern part of Ukraine is still completely devastated, and the manpower is something that the Russians simply will not run out of. Along with 50's 60's era gear that nobody bought off when the Soviet Union collapsed, let alone they find someone to supply them with gear.

It is a war of attrition and a waiting game at this point, unless the Ukrainian army can keep achieving major victories, which puts actual pressure to the Russian ruling elite.

Whoever seizes the initiative after mud season ends, as Strelkov is so fond of putting it, has the greatest chance of winning the war. But as before one of the keys remains logistics - an army with poor logistics will have a hard time even holding positions, much less pushing forward to capture them. As long as Ukraine breaks the Russian logistical supply chain, preferably in at least two locations, say Kreminna and/or Volnovakha for example, Russia will suddenly find itself much harder pressed to supply its units. And that could well set up the conditions for weakened frontlines to collapse. Twenty tanks and several humvees were enough to do it in Kharkiv. It can be much more effectively repeated when mud season ends with the new western weapons, unless Ukraine fails a complete lay up.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Karma Comedian posted:

The poster you are responding to is a resident of St Petersburg.

Look at all of this aid!

https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1632157106408247297?t=XsdGaym1S1hlFLU4_cQq5Q&s=19

It's not Ukrainian aid, it's an american army group's kit being sent home.
https://twitter.com/balt_security/status/1631977563240144898

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Flavahbeast posted:

in a post from a couple hours ago Prigozhin alleges that Wagner is still being starved of ammo and recruits:



This is unusual insofar as I've not seen something like this happen before in the Wagner vs. Regular army spat. We know that Wagner were banned from recruiting prisoners and that RuAF have taken over the job, but this is the first time we're seeing regular Wagner recruits being just taken by the regular army and dispersed among their own units.

zone
Dec 6, 2016
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1632179221274546177
Another bunch of unfortunate mobiks claim to have been cheated by their higher ups and forced into human wave assaults instead of being given second and third line positions. All too often the complaint of no available fire support is mentioned in such addresses recently as well.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

CommieGIR posted:

Scorched earth seems to be the only thing they are capable of

Khodakovsky, in a very recent telegram post after yet another failed assault in the Vuhledar direction, bitterly mentioned exactly this, that Russia is incapable of any form of warfare that doesn't involve massive amounts of artillery barrages. If this runs out, either by way of shell hunger or simply too many destroyed artillery pieces, Russia will be incapable of doing any meaningful offensive actions, also according to his own words.

zone
Dec 6, 2016
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1632469732417761284
.....and why does this bozo suggest that America would start a war against Mexico at all? Not to mention America has plenty of land and resources to spare of its own.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Karate Bastard posted:

Yes, sorry, should have said palatable and plausible.

I can't see how Russian government will do the only sensible thing. They just haven't ever so far, so I cannot imagine they will start any time soon.

Hope, yes. Imagine, not so much :(

That hope honestly went out of the realm of possibility when they began framing it as an existential war being fought against the whole of NATO while simultaneously stripping away any agency from the Ukrainians themselves, claiming them to merely be useful puppets.


Random Stranger posted:

The ideal option for the Russian soldier who's send into Ukraine is to surrender. Refuse to take part in the war by just quitting.

I know that's easier said than done, especially under fascism, and a PoW camp isn't fun and games, but at the end of the day they bear responsibility for their own actions.

It may just be for propaganda purposes, but it didn't seem that Russian POWs were treated that poorly. They received medical aid if injured, were given food and water as well, as well as leisure time. However I object on principle to the interviews of Russian POWs published for propaganda purposes.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Herstory Begins Now posted:

:rolleyes:

russia shouldn't publicly, openly frame their war as a genocidal war of conquest aimed at the specific destruction of Ukrainian identity and Ukrainian state if they don't want to be compared to other countries famous for genocide and wars of conquest

zone
Dec 6, 2016
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1632676611760726017
Attrited to the point where you have to use ancient relics as your main battle tanks.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

So they've already begun capturing some of these DIY technicals? That didn't take very long. The equipment situation for Russia must be more desperate than one would think.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:

There’s something going on here because I see the same kind of bad faith arguments from Latin American authoritarians (they’re always trying to attack us, we’re the victims, etc etc) and their cronies on Twitter. It’s like they learn it from somewhere, or maybe all narcissists react the same way and spread it

Every dictatorship makes it about existential threats, imo, so it's less about picking stuff up from somewhere than it is the fact that it's just a convenient excuse in such cases.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Estimated loss assessments for 6/3/2023. What a senseless waste of life and equipment.

zone
Dec 6, 2016
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1632681935775453184
:laffo:

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Yes, invading your neighbor and outlining a plan to genocide them and destroy their cultural identity is bad. I'm glad we both agree.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Karma Comedian posted:

You're right Russia should stop fire bombing civilians.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1632685977113116672?s=19

"ackchyually ukraine used those schools to hide several battalions of western trained troops, check out Incel Slava Z for more information that the west is trying to bury"

zone fucked around with this message at 13:16 on Mar 6, 2023

zone
Dec 6, 2016
https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1632635703673647104
It appears Shoigu was spotted making a visit to occupied Mariupol. I wonder why?

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Strategic Tea posted:

Man warhammer 40k is so cool
Question, where did you get Warhammer out of this?

zone
Dec 6, 2016
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1632723434533683200
Reportedly, up to now Bulgaria has sent a billion dollars in weapons.

zone
Dec 6, 2016
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1632622373290618881
Reportedly the purchase of ballistic missiles from Iran is on hold because Russia is afraid of having ATACMS or other long range weapons sent to Ukraine in retaliation.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

steinrokkan posted:

The reason the ruble is "stable" is that the central bank effectively ceased all international currency trading. So it has a nominal value, but it's fictional.

There was talk that when foreign currencies were purchased on the black market, you'd have to spend thrice or four times the nominal cost of a dollar/pound in rubles to get them. But that was months ago and I don't think there's been much reported about it since.

zone
Dec 6, 2016
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1632727952243687426
The useless Khodakovsky appears to have finally figured out that the Ukrainians are so tenacious because they're fighting for their land and homes, and asks why Russia can't be even half as tenacious as them in defense. He also believes that Melitopol is on the table for the next offensive.

zone
Dec 6, 2016
Peace can happen any time Russia and their colonial transplants in Crimea pack their bags and leave for Russia again, and pay the bill for their dumb war in full.
https://twitter.com/vic_top555/status/1557376547605975040

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Tigey posted:

Except 'stopping the war' by 'supporting peace' won't stop the genocide - it will accelerate it as Russia moves to consolidate its gains.

zone
Dec 6, 2016
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1632705392538013701
Fascism 101: accuse the other side of that which you yourself are guilty.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Nessus posted:

Why would they only leave the Lenin paintings? Would those not also be a key part of Russian history, even if perhaps ideology is a little different now? Puzzling.

The point is to show the Ukrainians that Ukraine is Russia, and shouldn't have their own culture, thus the Ukrainian national art is removed.
e: f;b

zone
Dec 6, 2016
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1632627996673581058

zone
Dec 6, 2016

HonorableTB posted:

Russia's 155th Brigade is refusing to carry out orders to capture Vuhledar.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/13859

Perhaps this is why its a bad idea to conduct unsupported human wave attacks :blyat:

They were supported. It's just that the support is now mostly smoldering wreckage in minefields because of poor tactics and recon or destroyed by counterbattery fire.

zone
Dec 6, 2016
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1632774531650576385
Yuriy Butusov on the defense of Bakhmut and the current situation; seems like some kind of rear guard action is going on. I hope they leave the city in time though, because a mistake here would be very costly.

e: because embeds are broken

quote:

Everyone who fights in the city in unfavorable conditions hopes that the time of this heroic resistance is used to create reliable, well-equipped and camouflaged defense lines to cover Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, the lines to which these combat-capable troops will be withdrawn in time. These will be reliably entrenched to be able to defeat the enemy.

Ukrainian soldiers demonstrate high combat capability. And where there is effective management, intelligence, organization, support, at least some ammunition for artillery and mortars, the Russians are being defeated there. We have an advantage due to higher quality, more motivated and more resilient people. But war is a clash of two systems, and everything depends not only on soldiers."

zone fucked around with this message at 18:27 on Mar 6, 2023

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Nessus posted:

You may want to get in the practice of screenshotting tweets.

Twitter embeds are broken, the tweet's still there. But i'll screenshot it in a moment.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Computer viking posted:

Ha, you added that image exactly in time for it to be in my quote, but not visible when I pushed the button.

's all good. I wish twitter would stop breaking embeds as often as it does, though.

zone
Dec 6, 2016

Toxic Mental posted:

I think probably it'd be reasonable to say "since the seige on Bakhmut started in earnest, what % of their total losses have come in that time" or something. So if it's like 30%,? If you lose 30% of your invading forces to capture one single city? That's pretty rough. Expand that over the rest of Ukraine and it's not a great situation for anyone.

Wagner alone, a month ago, was reported to have suffered a total of 40,000 MIA/KIA/AWOL/too badly wounded to be fit for further service, according to intelligence agencies. And those numbers were mentioned shortly after Soledar fell. Between that and what happened/is happening now in Bakhmut with both the Russian regular army and what's left of Wagner (and whatever recruits were picked up in the interim, given that Wagner are no longer allowed to recruit prisoners) I can't imagine they have a whole lot left to add. The Russian regular army formations in the attack there on both towns also took correspondingly heavy losses, but those weren't specifically mentioned.

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zone
Dec 6, 2016

Blitz of 404 Error posted:

Bakhmut also is extremely fortified and has extensive tunnels iirc and has been designed this way for years. It's easily possible that no cities west of Bakhmut have the same quantity of fortifications and it's not great that they're abandoning it

It's also probably not great for the russians that it took them 7 months to do so

To be fair, I'd heard that Ukraine themselves didn't believe both the towns could hold as long as they did at the beginning of the war. The intention was to buy as much time as possible (which certainly at the time wasn't expected to be 7-8 months) to build up the defense lines at Sloviansk/Kramatorsk/Siversk and other smaller lines before these cities. That's why the defensive calculus of Lyman being recaptured has helped take out at least one potential further axis of attack in the Donetsk oblast towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

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