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I don't want to seem callous about that since it's obviously tragic, but it's a rounding error when talking about actual excess mortality and total deaths impacting the labor force. edit: this is in regard to tainted drugs, not the overall opioid crisis which has very real impacts on the labor force
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Mar 23, 2023 21:27
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Femtosecond posted:
It is not, though. Lots of opioid users are dying from run-of-the-mill overdoses or other issues associated with drug use. Plus there's all the lost economic output from people addicted to opioids. Get rid of tainted drugs and the opioid crisis still has significant effects on the labor force.
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Mar 24, 2023 02:29
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It's one and the same really. Opiod users are buying something that they think is Fentanyl and it's lol random poo poo + a bit of Fentanyl and they OD and die because it's impossible to know what a safe dose of this chaos concoction is.
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The number of people who got hooked on opiates through over-prescription is massive in the US and that's largely a post-2000 phenomenon. The US is still "only" hitting like 80k annual deaths through opioid overdose, which is an order of magnitude smaller than COVID related deaths. And for any arguments you can make for COVID victims largely being out of the labor force, you can probably make similar ones for OD victims, too. Femtosecond posted:But I think I know what you're getting at that beyond the toxic drugs that are killing people, there are related issues around drug addiction that are taking people out of the work force. Yeah, for sure. Issues around drug use and the labor force are very much larger than a (relatively) small number of people (who are in many cases out of the labor force or marginally involved) dying.
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Mar 24, 2023 20:45
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Magnetic North posted:What is that X axis? Months since decline began? So they took the markets and slide them at the turnaround point so they all 'start' at the same time so try and show the commonality of the trend? That would explain why some are shorter, because the decline started in different places at different times. That appears to be what they did, yes
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Mar 25, 2023 15:02
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convert a bunch of it to housing just like we did with industrial buildings i mean it's not cheap or whatever but it's not an unsolvable problem
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Apr 13, 2023 15:17
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Cyrano4747 posted:I read an article at the height of the pandemic that quoted only about a third of office buildings as being suitable for conversion. Now, I'm sure there are caveats to that. Probably "suitable for conversion into the kinds of apartments most people want to live in." Most apartment buildings are relatively narrow, for example, because most people don't want to live in the windowless center of a cube. So it's going to be a bit of a sliding scale depending on how willing you are to try to get people to live in MegaCityOne. for sure, i'm not implying anywhere close to full conversion but it's not like there's no precedent for "we don't need this much of this kind of building any more"
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Apr 13, 2023 16:51
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Hadlock posted:I can't find the exact definition but generally mild recession is less than 1% contraction of annual GDP. So basically what's been going on the last six months or so you can't find the exact definition because it's not a real term, mild is just an adjective tagged on to recession. recession also is determined qualitatively in the US anyway. Borscht posted:It's two consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth. maybe if you're in the UK. in the US it's when the NBER says it was. now granted i don't think there's ever been a time with two quarters of negative real GDP growth that the NBER didn't declare a recession, but there's actually no true rules
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Apr 14, 2023 14:15
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unemployment definitions haven't really shifted since the mid 90s. U-1 through U-6 are still what they are so I'm not sure what you're talking about, exactly. People who have been jobless for more than 12 months but have looked for a job in the last four weeks still count in all of U-1 through U-6. and even if you stop looking but would like a job you count as marginally attached, which is included in U-5 and U-6. edit: also even if for whatever reason you want to bitch about U-1 being inaccurate, even something like U-6 is at historic lows at 6.6%. KYOON GRIFFEY JR fucked around with this message at 18:40 on May 5, 2023 |
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May 5, 2023 18:35
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Hadlock posted:Pretty bold statement https://archive.is/2023.05.05-16070...finance-1b6eb3e lol look at that apartment line good lord
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May 5, 2023 19:55
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Sacramento and Austin are both Southwest focus cities so a flight between them doesn’t seem very strange. It’s also a flight between the 11th largest and 35th largest cities in the US. I bet it will do fine.
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May 9, 2023 11:08
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powerful bay area guy energy to that post tbh "people don't know that the capital of the 5th largest economy in the world and the 35th largest city in the united states has an airport" come on son
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May 9, 2023 14:57
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gently caress tegel so much
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May 9, 2023 22:51
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Duckman2008 posted:So….what’s the take on the current pending US default ? Well the first thing is that it's pretty unlikely the US will default. The last time that Congress failed to raise the debt ceiling, the US did not default.
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May 24, 2023 14:36
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Otis Reddit posted:So, what happens to my I-Bonds if the US defaults? The US will almost certainly not default and there are many actions short of default that can be taken. But I guess I’ll engage with the question because people will not shut the gently caress up about it. If we take Argentina as a guide eventually there will be some kind of restructuring settlement where you take a big haircut and then receive some kind of deferred terms of payment. Note that creditors don’t really have to be treated equally - Argentina made the IMF whole in 2005 but most debt holders took a haircut down to 30% of face. In the interim before a restructuring settlement your bonds will be basically valueless, but that’s irrelevant because I-Bonds don’t trade on the secondary market and the only way to liquidate them is back to the Treasury. I presume the treasury will stop liquidation of I-Bonds but regardless they will probably not pay you face if you choose to liquidate. So basically you hold on to them and then you wait and see what happens. If for whatever reason you are holding debt instruments of a country that’s in default just hold on to them if they’re relatively valueless. The worst thing that can happen is that they actually become valueless, but there’s some upside. There was a lot of trading of Argentine debt for this reason (at pennies on the dollar) because if you buy something for 15% of face and then get 30% of face you just made a shitload of money.
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May 25, 2023 17:48
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lifg posted:Notable exception was Elliot Management, who refused the haircut and instead seized an Argentine navy ship. lol I did not know this, that rules
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May 26, 2023 16:02
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It’s a PRC prestige project. There’s a non zero chance that Powerstar is buying Intel chips and slapping a new lid on them.
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May 26, 2023 21:05
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That’s the theory but the C919 is like the worst possible example to use considering it’s complete garbage that took forever to develop.
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May 28, 2023 15:26
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Even the first truly modern post Soviet airliner, the Sukhoi superjet, was not good and was in fact so bad it’s initial western operators ditched then or went bankrupt or both. And that’s with a very substantial head start on the Chinese.
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May 29, 2023 03:09
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knowing basically nothing about commercial real estate what is a normal vacancy rate
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Jun 8, 2023 21:05
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There's a ton of domestic manufacturing it just doesn't require so many people anymore. the industrial production index is at 2007 levels despite the great recession (that was very bad for manufacturing) and COVID disruptions. the death of American manufacturing is as always widely overstated; the death of American manufacturing jobs is real.
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Jun 8, 2023 23:05
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It’s pretty hard to get a handle on how other countries’ property markets and mortgages work. It is highly variable. If you got a decent relationship ask the dude. I know mortgages in some high inflation countries had a mark to market process (which was also true of things like savings accounts etc) that occurred on a monthly basis.
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Jun 14, 2023 21:07
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I dunno if the airplanes thing is really true. There are certainly domestic products (Eurofighter, Rafale) but there are a lot of NATO air forces flying F-16s and buying F-35s and if anything the combat aircraft mix is shifting more towards Buying American with the Germans, Italians, and Brits buying F-35s.
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Jun 20, 2023 15:01
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bob dobbs is dead posted:the r&d costs exploded but in turn they got really good at sales and won many, many contracts that they weren't expected to win so, because the r&d cost is amortized over the planes, the per plane cost became really affordable you also can't buy the F-22 because they killed the program and got rid of the tooling so not even the USAF can buy them the F-35A is pretty great and if you tried as say Germany to build a F-35 equivalent you'd end up like the Japanese F-2 where depending on how you account for it the plane's flyaway cost is between 2 and 4 times more than an equivalent Block 52 F-16. Hadlock posted:Even the guns on the ship haven't changed appreciably since the end of WW2 [citation needed]
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Jun 20, 2023 18:08
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Hadlock posted:edit: I wouldn't consider an autoloader to be a significant improvement but that's just me. The article linked talks about rapid fire capable guns in the 1880s but it's not fully automated this thing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OTO_Melara_76_mm and this thing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3-inch/50-caliber_gun share a bore diameter and are both guns that go on boats but that's about it edit: germane to this thread, the first one is built by filthy euros and is very expensive KYOON GRIFFEY JR fucked around with this message at 19:48 on Jun 20, 2023 |
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Jun 20, 2023 19:38
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I will eat a literal Chinese straw hat if there is a BRICS currency in my lifetime
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Jul 11, 2023 04:00
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Hadlock posted:Toxx? Yeah
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Jul 11, 2023 04:10
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two semimajor banks, one with a weird concentration of risk
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Jul 17, 2023 14:23
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This is somewhat anecdotal and highly specific but for my transportation sector manufacturing clients, order intake is absolutely slowing rapidly. That's because order boards for new Class 8 trucks are sold out 12 months in to the future. That kind of situation is unprecedented and insane. If zero new Class 8 orders were placed for 12 months, the plants would still run at capacity. This is not an industry that typically has this level of backlog and in order for it to return to vaguely normal a decrease in new orders placed must occur. But that correction could absolutely occur without having an impact on overall production levels.
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Jul 17, 2023 17:52
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No, in terms of configurability of end product, but generally yes in terms of throughput outside of doing things like adding shifts. The assembly process is broken in to separate steps and proceeds according to a standard interval. You can rearrange the assembly process in various ways to change the number of steps and the time interval but that generally involves taking down the plant and changes to equipment, tooling, et that all have long lead times and are expensive. If you're already running three shifts, your options are very limited and it's hard to scale labor quickly if you're adding a third shift. The other problem is there's a reason that the truck factory is called final assembly. Many of the thousands of components in a truck BOM are orders of magnitude more complex than anything like paper products. They all have various manufacturing complexities and dependencies and asking to get say, 3x more alternators from your supplier puts in place a chain of activities for that supplier, its suppliers, etc. And not having one piece of those thousands available when the line needs it totally fucks up your process. You park the truck incomplete once it's done and then someone has to go back and fix it manually. edit: nobody's building much capacity because everyone knows that the spike is fairly transient and is the result of parts availability and limited production in early COVID months. but you still gotta produce those trucks and that revenue is still going to come in the future
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Jul 17, 2023 19:49
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bob dobbs is dead posted:id be surprised if the bom only has O(10^3) rows on it it depends on what level of the BOM you're willing to go to like at the first level of the BOM the engine is a unitary component. Hadlock posted:In my mind those trucks are just three modular parts, the chassis, drivetrain, and engine which each come in three sizes which haven't changed in basic concept since the 40s. Maybe they added an autoloader or something you own a TA, how are you this naive
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Jul 17, 2023 21:09
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Hadlock posted:Oops I meant to say coachwork not engine how simple do you think those those things are to build? now multiply that with a lot of chassis and powertrain options, plus 100 years of materials science innovations and computerized electronics
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Jul 17, 2023 21:50
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ARM does design and IP but has no fabs or ability to produce hardware.
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Jul 18, 2023 15:58
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SpartanIvy posted:Builders weren't even keeping up pre-recession. It's been an issue in the works a decade or two before that. The recession just gave a temporary reprieve but then when the economy rebounded afterwards and there were even less houses than before for even more people, it made everyone realize how hosed it really is. The answer is almost definitely density - to both increase housing stock in urban areas with jobs and to get people out of cars and help with climate change - but that’s basically impossible due to FYGM, nimbyism, and our insane car culture.
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Jul 27, 2023 17:56
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There are about 82MM single family homes. 20% being vacant sounds high to me.
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Jul 27, 2023 18:12
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reading the article, there's some distortion due to vacation homes, for example in my home state of Vermont and I suspect similar with Florida.
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Jul 27, 2023 19:05
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National housing market analysis is a fool's errand but if you're trying to pick SF as representative: lol, lmao
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Jul 29, 2023 16:34
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Comparing purchase costs per square foot to monthly rents doesn’t make much sense to me. Price per square foot for condo purchases would be a more direct comparison point - looks like in SF that’s right around $1k/sq ft, and for Phoenix it’s about $300/sq ft.
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Aug 2, 2023 11:25
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Lockback posted:That is some chart. At least it’s PPP adjusted although I presume that’s at a national and not metro level.
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Aug 14, 2023 19:25
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life sciences is not that big a sector
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Aug 18, 2023 16:33
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| # ¿ May 22, 2024 14:19 |
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Any time anyone says "BRICS will do X" it's wise to be skeptical. Even just taking the core It's worth remembering how BRIC(S) came about : A GS dude in 2001 identified the core four as fast growing economies that were likely to dominate the global economy by 2050. This was a bit of a Take at the time and was also designed (GS, remember) to spur various investments. Then, post hoc, the countries later decided that it was a good idea to coordinate further. I doubt you would see the level of (attempted) coordination among these countries had O'Neill's paper not made the cultural zeitgeist. Edit: "BRICS and similar economies" is meaningless - the differences between the five economies in the second BRIC(S) grouping are vast.
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Sep 5, 2023 13:30
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