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Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
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Happy Spring.

Tennis:Pickleball::Baseball:Rounders (except for the order in which they inspired each other)

SourKraut posted:

Don't worry, dilution is the solution to pollution!
This but unironically.

Of course we should do everything in our power to stop environmental contamination (because this poo poo adds up) but the toxicity is always in the dose. If somebody puts a vial of MegaCancer Serum in the Mississippi in St. Paul, a person in New Orleans doesn't need to worry because 90,000 gallons per second is a pretty good mixer. I sincerely doubt anybody in Philly has anything to worry about.

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Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
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Overall it's probably good that they loudly announced the spill, but the limits of "people deserve full information" can bump up against the limits of "the information makes people do dumb things." Bottled water is an environmental problem in and of itself and on an individual level a waste of money. There are probably people in the city for whom buying the water was a financial strain, but they thought they had to for the health of their families.

But I can't blame people for getting worked up. There is no such thing as "full information" in a case like this, because most people don't (and shouldn't have to) have a good understanding of environmental science, and getting a piece of information without the wider context is going to lead people in unproductive directions.

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 13:26 on Mar 27, 2023

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
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bird food bathtub posted:

Kinda feels like a symptom of the wider diagnosis of "People don't trust poo poo coming from those in power anymore". A few decades of skull loving anyone south of the 1% for an extra dollar has effects like that on a society. If there was a reservoir of trust from previous actions to draw on, individual events like this could be smoothed over and dealt with appropriately by those who do have a good understanding of environmental science.
That symptom is partially caused by said... unnatural... loving on the part of the ultrawealthy, but it's also (and, I would argue, more directly) caused by direct propaganda against the administrative state (largely funded by said ultrawealthy).

We just went through something where the EPA said "there's not really any reason to think there's dioxins here," and everybody screamed "dioxins, dioxins!" until finally they tested and what do you know, there weren't any dioxins, except in the Indiana test that was basically intentionally designed to show dioxins because they stored the samples in a place teeming with dioxins. (What was up with that anyway?)

People having no trust in public health and safety officials is not a good thing, even if you think it's coming from a good anti-capitalist place (which I'm frankly dubious about), and it's something that makes people retreat further towards individualism and paranoia instead of community.

There should absolutely be a "reservoir of trust" established by the environmental transformation that this country has gone through over the last 60 years, because this place was a god drat dump and we've made gigantic improvements, more or less entirely because of government action. There is, like with crime issues, a tendency for people to "feel" like things are getting worse all the time when the long-term trend is massive improvement.

Velocity Raptor posted:

With all these chemical spills and train derailments happening lately, is this indicative of a bigger problem currently happening, or is it just frequency bias and the fact that these things are what people are paying attention to currently?
It is absolutely 100% this, possibly more than 100% honestly.

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
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Freakazoid_ posted:

Pickelball is the official state sport of Washington State and was created in Bainbridge Island as a kid's game in 1965.

Just about every school in the state has pickleball as part of their physical education course. It is probably the only physical sport where a couch potato can be within reach of the most talented jock with just a little practice.
There must have been big regional variation in its adoption until, because it was a great game, it eventually started to become ubiquitous. Kind of like cornhole. I've been hearing the word "pickleball" for a few years but most of my actual exposure is from an episode of "Shrinking" a couple of weeks ago. It seems to be ping pong with light cardio, basically? Certainly something I'd be interested in trying, speaking as one of the coach potatoes.

I do fear that my lack of coordination, which is not just "pronounced" but "outlier" will make me no good at it, to the point where I don't really enjoy it, because that's what happened with cornhole. :v: I did enjoy tennis as a younger, healthier man, though.

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 15:09 on Mar 27, 2023

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
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Veryslightlymad posted:

I'm more distressed that so many people believe in the lie of hard work than I am in any decline of any other dubious personal value.
I mean hard work itself isn't a "lie," hard work often accomplishes worthwhile things that could not have been accomplished otherwise. All else being equal (all else is not equal), you'd rather have a society of hard workers than one where people are more lackadaisical.

Oh boy, there are a bunch of lies about hard work, though. A few of them:

- That hard work is an unmitigated good that does not create its own personal and social ills
- That hard work is always worthwhile
- That hard work is a prerequisite for deserving respect
- That one's financial status is a reflection of how hard they've worked
- (The biggest, in the US) That hard work is consistently rewarded, or insulates you from disaster

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
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Judgy Fucker posted:

I'm just waiting for the school shooting du jour to finally happen at one of my kids' schools. Almost feels inevitable at this point.
A few years ago I would've said "statistically, it's still very unlikely," but now... I don't know. There's only about 115,000 schools in the country so depending on where you set the threshold for school shooting (like, do you count incidents where "only" three kids get shot, or ones with no fatalities) the rate has to be up to, I don't know, one out of every 500-10,000 or so. Those are much "better" odds than the chances of your parachute failing while skydiving, which are high enough to keep me from ever skydiving.

Hell the odds are possibly even "better" than the chances of ending up in a car crash where your seatbelt saves your life, and 90% of Americans make sure to buckle up every time.

Rough time to have kids. :/

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 17:42 on Mar 27, 2023

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
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Ten million to one is somewhat comforting, but consider that for every death there's dozens of maimings and hundreds, maybe over a thousand kids who are scarred for life. The chances of this affecting your family, even if it's not the death of your child, start to get uncomfortably high.

And when I take those stats in concert with your point that schools are actually a relatively safe place to be... yikes.

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
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cunningham posted:

Another idea on "community" is the increased mobility of Americans over the years:

* fewer shared experiences with neighbors;
* more feeling of "well, I won't be here long, so why invest time/effort getting to know my neighbors.

Even though we have lived here 10 years, my wife and I are still labeled by our neighbors as "not really Wisconsinites" by some because our families aren't from here. In graduate school, practically none of my neighbors were from the same state - many/most were from other countries - and didn't stick around beyond 4 years. The late-90s had this, sure, but it feels like this has probably gotten more prominent since.

See, this is why I'm saying that at the right price point, you could get people to move to ecologically sound cities built from scratch on rural farmland! :v:

It wouldn't have worked 50 years ago but now that we have the internet, and the percentage of Americans who are fine with (or prefer) never seeing anybody from their family or hometown has grown, things could be different.

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
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cr0y posted:

Gonna assume it's a combination of false flag/we need to arm the teachers with howitzers/socialism would be worse
GUN FREE ZONES! :bahgawd:

Mellow Seas
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CuddleCryptid posted:

That didn't go away until basically the civil rights movement, and even then gun control laws were put into place specifically because white Americans were scared of black Americans having guns.
You know what we could really use in this country is a bunch of black people exploiting workers and hoarding wealth, then people might want to do something about those issues.

Mellow Seas
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I appreciate the response Cygnids.

The thing about testing being used to protect firms from liability sounds bad, and I'm sure it's been misused plenty over the years, but it's also true that sometimes they just aren't liable. I'm not sure how I'm supposed to take stuff like this seriously:

quote:

The results of CTEH’s tests in East Palestine were used at one point to deny a family’s reimbursement for hotel and relocation costs. Zsuzsa Gyenes, who lives about a mile from the derailment site, said she began to feel ill a few hours after the accident. “It felt like my brain was smacking into my skull. I got very disoriented, nauseous. And my skin started tingling,” she said. Her nine-year-old son also became sick. “He was projectile puking and shaking violently,” said Gyenes, who was especially concerned about his breathing because he has been hospitalized several times for asthma. “He was gasping for air.”

Like, am I missing something or there is simply no way on God's green earth this was actually caused by the derailment? (Keep in mind that this was days before the controlled burn.) If people a mile away were projectile vomiting then the immediate fallout of the disaster would've been orders of magnitude worse than it was. I mean somebody correct me if I'm way off base on this...

And honestly part of the reason I'm so skeptical is because it's pretty much unambiguously true now that an absolute deluge of exaggerated, inaccurate and falsely alarmist stuff has come out of East Palestine. That kind of material undermines people's confidence in all information about a situation. If we are working under the assumption that orgs like the EPA are always lying to us, then aren't we going to end up doing something stupid when they're telling the truth?

CuddleCryptid posted:

Could there be a spike in cancer rate down the road from people who were exposed to it in the immediate surroundings the first day of the crash? Hard to say.
It's super hard to say and will always be hard to say, because there are hundreds and hundreds of environmental exposures that happen to a person in their lifetime that have small multiplier effects on their cancer risk. "At risk of cancer" is a spectrum - events like this could increase somebody's chances of developing cancer by, say, 50% or so, and it would still be hard to suss out from statistics when you're dealing with a small sample, which this town is.

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 19:23 on Mar 27, 2023

Mellow Seas
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If a train has gotta derail that looks like a fantastic place for it to happen. (Kelso is a ghost town/abandoned depot, not an actual place people live.) But yeah. Apparently you can forget to put a train in park?

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 20:40 on Mar 27, 2023

Mellow Seas
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Just to rehash from previous discussions, 3 derailments is an average day. There are about 1000 per year.

Mellow Seas
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From what I'm seeing, Hale was not a transgender woman, he was a transgender man. Audrey Hale was his deadname, and he's been incorrectly (/ideologically) misidentified as a woman.

I mean, rest in piss, child murderer scum, but it's disappointing to see this kind of stuff getting screwed up...

Source:

The Independent posted:

The woman who killed six people, including three children, at a Christian elementary school in Nashville, Tennessee has been identified as Audrey Elizabeth Hale.

The 28-year-old, who is believed to be a former student at Covenant Presbyterian Church School, was shot dead by police on an upper floor of the school.

She had shot open a side door before opening fire on students and staff with two assault-style rifles and a handgun.

Metro Nashville Police Chief John Drake said Hale was not believed to have any previous criminal record.

He said a “manifesto” and a map of the school grounds showing entrances had been found at her home.

Asked at a press conference whether there was anything found in a police search of Hale’s apartment that could have suggested a motive for such a horrific crime, Chief Drake said: “We have a manifesto, we have some writings we’re going over that pertain to this day, the actual incident.

“We have a map drawn out of how this was all going to take place.

“There’s right now a theory that we may be able to talk about later but it’s not confirmed, and so we’ll put that out as soon as we can.”

Hale reportedly identified as transgender and used the pronouns he / him. In answer to a question as to whether this might have any bearing on a motive, Chief Drake said: “There is some theory to that. We’re investigating all the leads and once we know exactly, we will let you know.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/crime/audrey-hale-nashville-school-shooting-b2309043.html

Mellow Seas
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So you know, if you were feeling a little bummed out about women getting in the mass shooting game, that's a bit of good news, I guess?????

Mellow Seas
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Yeah sorry to have presented that as authoritative. Definitely prudent to wait for more information. It's already been faked once before, and, yeah, it's the UK press, so any anti-trans angle will be fervently pursued.

Mellow Seas
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Barrel Cactaur posted:

As far as the linked in profile thing, its really weak.

I don't think its a strong indicator, and I don't think we're ever likely to get decently credible confirmation about it.

“Our sources within the police department inform us that the shooter identified as a porpoise, and that the lack of a gender-specific pronoun there was in no way intended as sexism.”

Mellow Seas
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I’m not sure why it wasn’t included but a zillion polls (here’s one) have shown that if military spending had been included, a majority would support increasing it. The public absolutely has paradoxical fiscal policy preferences.

E: oh I was way behind, carry on

Mellow Seas
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Actually he wouldn’t have to commit any regicide, technically. He could just kill the rest of his family; Charles himself would just be style points. And as long as Charles is alive William and his kids aren’t regents, so it’s cool.

(This post is not an endorsement of killing any royals)

Mellow Seas
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cat botherer posted:

https://twitter.com/DavidJollyFL/status/1641119107696455680

quote:

In its environmental analysis for the current lease sale, the Biden administration estimated the oil and gas drilling from this sale could emit about 21.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide.
Biden climate policy continues to go just great. This auction was part of the inflation reduction act, but this sale apparently goes beyond its requirements.
Not defending the policy but just to put it in context, 21.2 million metric tons is about a day and a half of US petroleum usage.

e: My math was a mess I dunno. We use about 6.5 billion mt a year, which works out to about 17 million mt per day.

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 19:33 on Mar 30, 2023

Mellow Seas
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koolkal posted:

Who are these onlookers that need people to factcheck Greene for the 50th time about whatever insane poo poo she's saying?
We mainline it every day, but there are a lot of people whose diet of political opinion might just be a trickle - a work conversation here, a facebook post there. Somebody could go a whole year and only hear one or two statements out of somebody like MTG - and they weren't around when everybody was correcting her the week before.

I'm honestly not super sure that fact checking is all that helpful either, but I can certainly see an argument for at least having a response to each new lie in your pocket.

Mellow Seas
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Meatball posted:

The people who didn't see or hear the first 49 times.

Apologies for the post about posters - in this case, myself - but I really need to learn how to be more concise. :blush: Meatball said it much better.

Mellow Seas
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Whether or not to release manifestos and other messages from spree killers is a tough call, one I'm glad I don't have to make. Avoiding a situation where killing a bunch of people becomes a great way to get your super cool ideas broadcasted nationwide is obviously a high priority.

One argument for releasing them is to say, "look at the kind of people you are letting get guns." It's not like the guns had been sitting around their parents house - they bought the guns within the last few weeks, at the same time that they were writing their presumably insane manifesto. Like, ask somebody to visualize somebody sitting down at their keyboard and writing violent, paranoid nonsense and then heading over the gun store for a no-questions-asked purchase.

Mellow Seas
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Skex posted:

I think that is the point that the Left, Liberals and Democrats need to be hammering constantly. Braggs didn't indict Trump, the grand jury indicted Trump, a grand jury consisting of regular Americans
Yeah - regular Americans from NEW YORK CITY!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmhgtBA16aA

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

The New York Young Republicans just put out an absolutely bonkers statement about Trump's indictment and is vowing to organize protests outside of the courthouse next week.

It seems like Trump legal proceedings in NYC will bring large protests, and considering the area's political leanings they're likely to be met with even larger counterprotests. The dynamic doesn't really put me at ease.

Mellow Seas
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Young Freud posted:

I'm thinking of that NYC library drag queen read from a month ago where the Proud Boys had to get police escort away from the event because almost all of NYC showed up and started bricking them. New York is a hostile environment for chuds, unless they wear a badge or venture out of lower Manhattan.
Regular ol' New Yorkers, savin' the day by throwing garbage like the Roosevelt Island tram riders in Raimi's Spider-Man.

Also, although ACAB applies there as much as anywhere else, I would guess that given its diversity, the NYPD may actually lean Democratic among its rank-and-file (in a very centrist, coppy way of course), and is more hostile to white supremacy. That could inhibit the ability of groups like the PB to operate there and get the favorable treatment they've come to expect from cops.

Mellow Seas
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I wouldn't go so far as to predict that cops would act properly during clashes of protests, or that there won't be terrible misconduct, or that their collective bias won't lie on the side of the fascists. Still, I cannot for a second imagine that 50% of NYPD officers being non-white would not have an effect on the way it treats white supremacists.

Yes, higher-ups are willing to appoint a security detail for some scumbags for a smaller event. That's leadership, and we know what side it's on. But when it's down in the street, with hundreds of young, low-ranking cops and tens of thousands of protestors in close quarters, and both sides are throwing things and knocking over barriers, I don't think either side is going to have a very good time.

Mellow Seas
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Youremother posted:

This is pure conjecture on my part, I am not a psychologist or even a particularly intelligent person, but it feels like to me a lot of the recent issues with mass shooters is an extension of the growing suicide problem in America. People who once may have quietly killed themselves are turning towards enormous shows of violence as a way to express their frustrations with the state of the world. If death is their end goal, what is it to them to take out as many people with them anyway? In the end this is directly caused by what is causing the suicide crisis in the first place: trivial access to guns.
Not only is there an increase in suicidal ideation, but the more common mass shootings are, the more likely it is that a troubled person would end up concluding that that was the right way to go about it.

To me, A. Hale does not appear to have fit a typical profile of a mass shooter. They do not appear to have any history of obsession with guns, or a history of violent behavior. It seems like they were a really sick, suicidal person, but if mass shootings were not a regular occurrence, if they weren’t in the news all the time, I honestly doubt that their addled brain would have even gone to that place.

Of course, gun rights advocates are happy to just say "They're evil! Can't stop criminals!" and move on. But I'm not really sure if there was anything inherently wicked about Hale. At least not moreso than thousands or millions of other people who don't mass murder children.

It does look like we’ve entered a feedback loop where more mass shootings produce more mass shootings which produce more mass shootings.

Mellow Seas
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Space Cadet Omoly posted:

He killed six people, three of which were children. Don't do that "but was he really evil?" Pontificating bullshit.
I guess I just don't believe that people are "evil" in that way; I mean, I believe in psychopaths and it's reasonably likely that Hale was one, but even psychopaths are not generally interested in murdering children. It doesn't have anything to do with trying to rehabilitate Hale or excuse their actions, it's about trying to find actual causes. (Of course the guns are the main cause, but we're having a bit of trouble dealing with that.)

The main problem with the rhetoric of "evil" entering this discussion at all is: it's completely useless. There is no policy response to "evil".

Mellow Seas
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XboxPants posted:

If our problem is that we have all these "shitheads" who want sympathy and see that the easiest way to get it is through a mass shooting, then I'd argue that we can address this by making sympathy easier to find. I'll quote Elendil004 from the thread they recently made on this topic:
I absolutely agree with Elendil about reducing stressors. The non-gun reasons for the increase in mass shootings, whatever percentage of the problem they are, are the same exact problems leading to youth depression, increased (regular, non-homicidal) suicide and drug overdoses.

It's interesting when people say they want to address the "mental health crisis," and what they think that means. How do we actually make the lives of mentally ill people better, and how do we make them more stable?

I’m a fairly severely mentally ill person; I’ve been diagnosed with Bipolar type I and I had two extreme delusional episodes back in the aughts. And as longtime D&D readers might be aware, I sometimes have trouble regulating my emotions. (IMO, the DSM is a bunch of pseudoscience as far as classification goes, but in any case, I ain't right.)

What is expected of me by society is, in my experience, to find the right meds, and a good therapist, and then just carry on living on like everybody else, with all the ups and downs and stress and pressure, all of it. As if some psychiatric treatment - vastly underinvested in by the government and insurance companies - would just eliminate all the problems my disease causes me.

Right now that’s working out for me, but I’ve had varying degrees of success over the years, and it’s very likely that I am going to run into trouble again at some point in my life. And I have done much better than most people with my level of illness. I think that people "like me" should be “allowed” by the disability system to just gently caress off for a while if they feel like they need to. (Well, everybody should be able to gently caress off for a while if they want, but let’s start with the mentally ill first.)

As it is now, sure, I could probably get a lawyer and get on disability full time (after many months and many appeals), but that would basically lock me into a life of poverty and government dependence when 80%+ of the time, I'm perfectly capable of doing high level work. "Disability" is a temporary state for me, not a permanent one, but that's not how SSI is set up.

Now, I have some privilege, and because I got a great education and have a good job, I was actually able to use my employer’s disability insurance to take three months off last year when I was suffering from severe depression. Without that time off I would’ve ended up unemployed, in the hospital or both. That benefit should be guaranteed, not just a perk for white collar workers.

I'll be sure to check out Elendil's thread too, thanks for the referral.

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 19:59 on Mar 31, 2023

Mellow Seas
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The "wait who the gently caress is this person???" reaction seems pretty hard-coded into the human response to this kind of thing, and I don't know that we even have the option of avoiding it - it may be more infeasible than getting rid of the guns! At least in the pre-social media days you could imagine some kind of regulation or collusion among networks, but that's probably out the window now.

At least we are talking about them for a shorter period of time than we used to? Dear prospective mass shooters: I do not remember the Uvalde shooter's name or anything about him, and I'll forget yours too, I promise.

Mellow Seas
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Jaxyon posted:

All I can say is you are not very familiar with the NYPD and you should probably do some research, because you're super duper wrong.
:rolleyes: I lived in New York for years and still have many friends there. I know about Diallou, I know about stop and frisk, I know what Kerik and Kelly were all about and that their philosophy still runs the department. I know that Pat Lynch will get the union to enthusiastically defend them for absolutely anything. I know about the rapes, I know about the murders of whistleblowers. I know what a loving rat bastard organization they are. (And as far as minority officers, I certainly remember the events in Memphis a few weeks ago.) I'm not saying anything more than what I'm saying, which is an "all else being equal" thing. (And, in this case, all else is equal because ACAB.)

Mellow Seas posted:

I wouldn't go so far as to predict that cops would act properly during clashes of protests, or that there won't be terrible misconduct, or that their collective bias won't lie on the side of the fascists.

You quoted this, but did you read it?

You don't have to be a cop apologist or ignorant of the NYPD to hypothesize that black and Latin cops cause the Proud Boys and other white supremacists to be less comfortable, or that those cops will be less forgiving of their violence than the white cops will be. (I saw firsthand the difference between white cops and minority cops in the NYPD - they're all bad but the white cops are noticeably worse.) I know cops are deeply brainwashed by their organization, and that even minority cops have a strong tendency to be racist in their policing, but there's still a person in there.

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Uncle Boogeyman posted:

The cops collective bias would absolutely be on the side of the fascists because the cops are the fascists
In this hypothetical scenario we are discussing they are only some of the fascists.

cops:fascists::squares:rectangles

I mean this seems to be a "no quarter" thing where some people don't want it spoken or acknowledged that cops ever act less than 100% evil, 100% of the time, which I totally get, so I'll just drop it.

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 21:09 on Mar 31, 2023

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Uncle Boogeyman posted:

How does “i don’t think the fascists would side with the fascists” make any sense

It sure wouldn't, maybe you need some new glasses champ

e: I'll take a bit of blame for the communication error on account of the double negative

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 21:13 on Mar 31, 2023

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Jaxyon posted:

Yes, I read it. Still comes off as naive.

You can feel whatever you want, but the evidence is not on your side.
Listen, I'm not even 100% sure of it myself, or if the effect would even be all that significant if I were right, but, in addition to the intuitive argument - which I don't think should be discounted entirely, but again, I get it - there is, in fact, evidence for what I am claiming.

Science (the research journal, not the concept) posted:

In the wake of high-profile police shootings of Black Americans, it is important to know whether the race and gender of officers and civilians affect their interactions. Ba et al. overcame previous data constraints and found that Hispanic and Black officers make far fewer stops and arrests and use force less than white officers, especially against Black civilians. These differences are largest in majority-Black neighborhoods in the city of Chicago (see the Perspective by Goff). Female officers also use less force than male officers. These effects are supportive of the efficacy of increasing diversity in police forces.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abd8694

I have not read the actual study, if anybody wants to get into it I'd enjoy that. This is distinct from the much more well-established research that black cops exhibit negative bias against blacks, which is absolutely true.

Not all bad things are equally bad, and noticing that a bad thing is less bad is not claiming that it's good. But that's a discussion we've had here a whole bunch over the years, isn't it?

Mellow Seas
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I was saying diversity is relevant specifically in the context of interactions with white supremacists, although the study takes a broader scope.

Really, it’s something that could maybe, to assign some arbitrary values, take a “9.5” on the awful scale and make it into a “8.2”. That’s still far, far too awful, so it’s not a solution. You can look at it as something to do that’s short-term achievable that can make some changes on the margins, like pork said - but departments have already made a lot of progress on diversification and it hasn’t “fixed” anything.

I just think protests where one side is white supremacist is one of the marginal cases where it matters. Would not be shocked, however, if I’m totally wrong and they roll out the red carpet for the worst pieces of poo poo to show up.

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Judgy Fucker posted:

...philosophically good...
...but it wasn’t really...
The revolution in a nutshell

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Timeless Appeal posted:

Drag bans are pretty obviously unconstitutional, and I can't even imagine them surviving the current worst Supreme Court. It has nothing to do with gender identity or accepting trans people. Drag bans just clearly violate the 1st Amendment and 14th Amendment because they're just bans on a guy wearing a dress*. Taken to their natural extreme they pretty much give state governments the power to force women to not wear pants. Of course, if it actually gets to the Supreme Court, it'll still probably just end up being a 5-4 decision agains the bans.
Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if they make the obviously correct ruling but barely. Don't really see Roberts or Gorsuch letting the law slide, and I can't see C-B, Alito or Thomas ruling to overturn it, so it'll probably be 6-3 or 5-4. (I think Kav would rule correctly but we'll see.)

They also might just deny cert if lower courts have struck it down.

But yeah the far right side of the court has no limits. It reminds me of when federal judge Reed O'Connor (who this week ruled coverage requirements for insurance are unconstitutional) struck down the entire ACA a few years ago on some flimsy reasoning. It got appealed up the chain and every judge who saw it basically laughed at what absurd legal argument it was. So then it gets to the Supreme Court and his ruling is officially overturned... 7-2. :wtc:

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 20:10 on Apr 1, 2023

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
Nobody gave a poo poo about drag for yeeeaaaaaars, up until extremely recently. RuPaul was super famous in the '90s and his show has been on since 2009. It's 100% an outgrowth of trans panic. Men dressing as women is just a good harmless fun time, but people with penises being women, well, that won't do at all. Drag is just kind of getting caught in the net.

(Honestly I thought if we saw hostility to drag it would come from the left, for appropriation!)

I am kind of hoping that we are approaching backlash-to-the-backlash time... not enjoying the madness over the last year or so after so much progress was made.

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
The law was pretty transparently designed so that sheriffs (i.e. elected far right Republican officials) and their deputies could arrest pretty much any manner of gender non-conformist they wanted to.

I mean, consider that the prototypical bogeyman here is "Drag Queen Story Hour." If reading a children's book, to children, while wearing a dress falls under the banner of "appealing to a prurient interest" then what the hell doesn't?

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Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
It's so incredibly hosed up because the point of things like DQSH isn’t about gender at all, really, it’s just to give kids the message that, you know, people like to express themselves in different ways, and however you want to express yourself is okay, even if it seems weird to other people, and you should respect how other people express themselves as well. The problem is that conservatives don’t want their kids - or, for that matter, anybody’s kids - getting that message.

And because the motivation of just “making people be nicer to other people despite their differences” is so alien and even frightening to them, they come up with this entire alternate reality where it’s all about trying to molest kids - while, in the real world, children continue to get molested by their relatives and authority figures.

Just so many layers of hosed.

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