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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Full statement from Trump just emailed out a minute ago: That is far too well written to have been composed by Trump.
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# ¿ Mar 31, 2023 00:49 |
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# ¿ Jun 2, 2024 01:51 |
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Well no more trips to Scotland for Trump any time soon, since he has to surrender his passport. No more trips overseas at all.
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# ¿ Mar 31, 2023 02:30 |
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FlamingLiberal posted:You know, I used to think that Ted Cruz bending the knee for Trump in 2016 was the most pathetic thing I've seen in politics, but this weird Pence defense of Trump has to be worse He's still under the delusion that he can claim the Trump/maga mantle should Trump go away. He doesn't understand that the florida rear end in a top hat is the real threat.
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# ¿ Mar 31, 2023 03:26 |
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I think the general timeline is going to go like this Next week: Trump is formally arraigned on those 30+ business crimes dealing with bank fraud, tax fraud and tax evasion. Stormy Daniel's hush payments will be lumped into the tax fraud portion. Trump will need to surrender his passport and post a bond. Next 6-9 months: Various pre-trial hearings, complaints and appeals of process. This could easily get stretched out for a year 9-12 months from now: Trial begins, probably lasting a month. 12-14 months from now: Trump will withdraw during the primaries after anemic results, blaming the various trials and not his general unpopularity with the republican base. 12-14 months from now: Trump convicted on portion of charges. 1-3 years from now: Various appeals are filed, his lawyers doing their best to stall and delay. After all the appeals are exhausted, Trump will finally face 'jail time'. However, citing his age and his extraordinary circumstances, Trump's lawyers successfully argue for home confinement in his apartment in Trump Tower. Trump also has to pay millions in fines to NY state. If however at any time between now and the time Trump 'serves' time he dies, all cases are vacated and he will be considered innocent of all crimes. Yes, even if he's convicted and in the middle of the appeals process he would be considered innocent.
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# ¿ Mar 31, 2023 13:21 |
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bird food bathtub posted:I'm a living embodiment of Negatron Prime on these things which I freely admit. Trump's entire legal strategy for decades has been "gently caress you, no" on every single last possible piece of paperwork, punctuation, testimony, and deadline, which then gets seventeen motions filed when it is supposed to happen and three appeals when it happens anyway. I don't see it only lasting 1-3 years. Trump has money, and that's what the courts respect. I really do think the courts are wise to this by now and are going to have a very low tolerance for delay tactics. I would not be surprised that because he's running for president they expedite his case. Out of fairness you know.
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# ¿ Mar 31, 2023 14:42 |
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I wonder if all the poo poo Trump posts to social media, such as the picture he posted implying he would bash Bragg's head in and posts about mass violence by his supporters are going to force the courts to issue a gag order on him?
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# ¿ Mar 31, 2023 14:47 |
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Gyges posted:There is almost no scenario where Trump withdraws from the primaries. Perhaps the key reason he's even running again for the job he hates, is that he's terrified of actually answering for his myriad crimes. He's desperate for the immunity from consequences that the sitting President wields. I respectfully disagree.Come mid April 2024 if Trump is significantly down and polling is trending against him I think he would withdraw as not to be seen even more as a loser. Of course he would not blame the actual reasons (People tired of his poo poo, people want a firebreathing conservative who can get poo poo done and see that in DeSantis), but would instead blame the democrats for weaponizing the courts against him. His reputation is all he cares about, and its going to majorly sting if he keeps losing primaries. [stealth edit] He mgiht et a minor bump in polls now from this indictment, but that's going to fade fast as the actual charges come out. This is a short term 'gain' for him but a long term loser.
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# ¿ Mar 31, 2023 18:29 |
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koolkal posted:I would expect a Stop the Steal movement and protesters to attack whoever's in the lead. Funny in a 'oh my God we have lost faith in the democratic process' sense, which isn't funny at all.
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# ¿ Mar 31, 2023 18:46 |
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haveblue posted:Becoming and staying president is a major impediment to any investigations or penalties, so there’s his motivation to stay in the race. He won’t stop running unless he’s dead or legally barred from doing it, and if it’s the latter he’ll be trying to pull strings and weasel around it like he tried in Georgia Yeah, If he was doing well in the primaries. But do you think he's going to stay in until June or try for a convention fight if come April 1st he's already lost a significant amount of primaries and his path forward is pretty much a dead end? I think his ego would tell him to get out before he's ultimately declared a loser in the primaries. Mind you, i would _love_ to see a convention fight. That would be super spicy. [edit] Also I think he would withdraw because he would realize that if he went the distance and lost all remaining influence would be gone. Though he very well may go 3rd party if that happens. Cimber fucked around with this message at 19:00 on Mar 31, 2023 |
# ¿ Mar 31, 2023 18:57 |
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Aegis posted:Sorry if its already been addressed, but is there anyone from the area who can give some insight on what this is all about? The first stories I saw about this say she reps a pretty liberal area and has been aligned with pro-choice causes in the past. What specifically is her angle here? Youth Decay posted:There are, um, rumors she is in a relationship with the speaker of the house. I mean it makes more sense than her own justifications as to her sudden extreme shift rightwards. I wonder if she got advanced notice that her district was going to be redistricted to be very red and she wanted to get ahead of the problem. Oh, my area is goingto be strong red soon? Better change parties and keep my job!
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# ¿ Apr 5, 2023 22:11 |
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Well, Tennessee did it. Expelled those democratic lawmakers from the legislature for protesting against gun violence. https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/06/us/tennessee-democrats-office-removal-vote/index.html
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# ¿ Apr 7, 2023 01:49 |
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Silly Burrito posted:Not all of them. Wow, that's even worse. Plus you get Michael Steele, former head of the GOP calling them out on this.
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# ¿ Apr 7, 2023 02:01 |
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Name Change posted:I struggle to think of how you could more shame yourself as an institution or bring down a bigger shitstorm of negative attention from all directions. The mistake you made is having the believe that they have shame.
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# ¿ Apr 7, 2023 02:07 |
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Charlz Guybon posted:I read if they are re-elected they can't be expelled again. Is that right? Interesting question. What happens if they get reelected and the house refuses to seat them?
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# ¿ Apr 7, 2023 03:55 |
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FlamingLiberal posted:This terrible Chudge finally did the thing everyone had been expecting for like a month Ahh yes, the venue shopping of the GOP worked. No surprise there. Disgusting, and hopefully the 2nd court of appeals issues a stay while the appeals process goes forward and more than 7 days.
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# ¿ Apr 7, 2023 23:39 |
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FlamingLiberal posted:I would be extremely surprised if they didn't stay this on appeal, this entire case is nonsense. Also that drug is used for many other things besides abortion. Normally I would agree, but the 5th is a really conservative bench. One Biden appointee, two Obama and one Clinton. Trump however got six there.
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# ¿ Apr 7, 2023 23:58 |
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Randalor posted:So how do they resolve this? One on one duel at dawn? Rap battle? Baseball game between judicial staff? It likely would be fast tracked to the Supreme court.
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# ¿ Apr 8, 2023 00:14 |
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haveblue posted:It goes up the chain of appeals until it hits a court to which both of them are inferior, which issues its own ruling that overrides them. If that court isn’t SCOTUS, it then gets appealed to SCOTUS for a final ruling Though I'm not sure how that works if two courts are in different appellate districts.Is the only court that both are inferior the SC? [edit] I also can't disagree with this: https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1644473223948500992?cxt=HHwWgIC8webrq9ItAAAA Cimber fucked around with this message at 00:19 on Apr 8, 2023 |
# ¿ Apr 8, 2023 00:16 |
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Killer robot posted:If the appeals court for either district says "Nah, our guy's wrong, we agree with the other one" there's no longer any conflict between districts and SCOTUS doesn't yet have to be involved. It can still be appealed further by the parties in either case, but the higher court wouldn't have to take it. Ahh, but if the 5th circuit rules for the ban, and the 2nd(?) circuit rules for the stay on withdrawal, then does that automatically get shunted up to the SC? Also, if the 5th declines to uphold a stay in the Texas until it makes a ruling, but the other court has a stay forcing the drug to remain on the market, does that also get fast tracked upwards?
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# ¿ Apr 8, 2023 00:42 |
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OddObserver posted:Washington is 9th Circuit, along with CA, OR, NV, AZ, ID, MT (which makes it represent around 30 million more people than second most popular circuit) --- 2nd is NY + CT + NH, 1st is the rest of New England. Oh, I was thinking Washington DC, not Washington state. Well, doesn't really alter the fundamentals of my question tho
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# ¿ Apr 8, 2023 03:41 |
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Mooseontheloose posted:I mean, yes and no. They are still 48% of the vote but the number is declining. I mean, its interesting that the Democrats despite losing in 2022 are outperforming the last few midterms. Well, 'losing' because things are gerrymandered so much the democrats need a +5 advantage just to have parity. If districts were zoned neutrally they would probably have a permanent house majority.
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# ¿ Apr 9, 2023 13:53 |
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Young Freud posted:The issue with Millennials isn't that they'll slide more to the right, the issue is Democrats sliding more to the right and Millennials disengaging because of that. The Dems absolutely have to have a progressive platform in order to keep them. I think that will happen eventually, as more and more Boomer dems leave and more and more gen-x and Millennials come into true power. The average age of the Senate is what...72? The house is a bit younger but there are a lot of structural issues involved that prevent progressive or even moderate dems from getting elected. Also Biden was not exactly a very exciting candidate. I voted for him and worked for his campaign, but not out of any great excitement to get _him_ in, but more to get Trump out. I would have volunteered and voted for a cheese sandwich rather than Trump. Cimber fucked around with this message at 14:11 on Apr 9, 2023 |
# ¿ Apr 9, 2023 14:08 |
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aBagorn posted:i kept reading a bunch of think pieces saying Gen X has swung hard right over the last 10 years That makes me ill, but considering what we saw when we were growing up I'm not terribly surprised.
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# ¿ Apr 9, 2023 15:07 |
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Charlz Guybon posted:You would think they would get tired of losing eventually I don't know if they actually want to win. its far easier for them to be able to gum up the works by holding one part of congress than actually be in charge. Then they would actually have to implement the policies they keep talking about.
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# ¿ Apr 10, 2023 04:22 |
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Kalit posted:On a brief lookup, it seems in line with what she's said in the recent past and realizes how damaging this issue can be to the Republican party in general. Well, I think that's the trap the republicans have dug for themselves. They let the crazies take over so much of the party they are forcing 'moderate' republicans to take stances they don't really want to just survive primary, and then they are stuck with those statements once it comes time for the general. The crazies however don't care, because they are safe in their deeply red, artificially designed districts where they can do whatever they want without worry. MTG I'm looking at you.
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# ¿ Apr 10, 2023 15:43 |
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Mellow Seas posted:It actually would be really, really bad if "court decisions are optional" became an established precedent and I don't think the reason why is particularly obscure. The problem here is that a judge made an insane ruling, not that other branches are subject to their decisions. Yeah, democrats don't want to open pandora's box of ignoring rulings they don't like. Because if they do it sure as hell Republicans would. Then again, Republicans don't really seem all that concerned with norms and decorum, so they might just ignore a ruling in the future they really don't like. I also agree that its unlikely this court decision gets upheld. Most likely its going to swim for years in the various court dockets with the stay in place to help motivate people to vote republican. I've always believed that over turning Roe was like the dog catching a chased car. They didn't _really_ want it overturned because it was such a great motivator, but they painted themselves into a box where eventually it was forced on them. Now they are facing a pretty big voter backlash from dems who are super motives and 'independents' who are pissed off. Rulings like the one from last Friday are a nightmare to the establishment GOP because it is so indefensible, but they are forced to defend it. However, the judge in Washington threw a monkeywrench into the idea of having this float around in various courts as there is now a conflict. I would imagine that in a few months both the 5th and 9th appeals make contradictory rulings and the SC will be forced to take a stand. I would like to believe that the Texas case gets overturned on some technical grounds such as standing on a 5-4 decision, with Kavanaugh joining Roberts with the three liberals.
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# ¿ Apr 10, 2023 19:39 |
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Byzantine posted:Which is why they, and we, are hopeless. When one side respects customs and norms, and the other does not its not a great thing for the side that wants to remain on the moral high ground. Some hardball is expected and needed, but a win at all costs mentality can do serious long term damage to the system.
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# ¿ Apr 10, 2023 20:26 |
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InsertPotPun posted:i mean they spent decades trying to get around the ruling by creating more and more byzantine laws about hospital access and planned parenthood funding etc etc etc to make abortion de facto illegal but...ok...i guess they just accepted the ruling and never tried to get around it except for the decades long conspiracy to install judges to legalize their work arounds? Well, they at least worked within the system to get to where they are now. They didn't do a 'gently caress you, you made the ruling now lets see you enforce it because we are just going to ignore it'.
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# ¿ Apr 10, 2023 22:52 |
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yronic heroism posted:Nothing would have stopped McConnell from filling every R president’s Supreme Court nomination. It was not like Reid wanted to blow that up but if anyone thinks McConnell would have let 3 justices expire due to an existing fillibuster boy do I have a bridge to sell. Toss in McConnell not even allowing Garland to come to a vote and you can see why Reid's hand was pretty much forced.
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# ¿ Apr 11, 2023 00:41 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Fox News is in big trouble in their Dominion lawsuit. That would be amazing if a special master did crawl through all that stuff. However it would seriously delay any trial by years.
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# ¿ Apr 12, 2023 20:03 |
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Gatts posted:My dude do you know how expensive a 5 Guys burger is? But the 5 guys burger would have succeeded in blocking things.
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# ¿ Apr 14, 2023 23:35 |
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The amount of fat, grease and oil in that picture is making my stomach turn. And then there is the McDonald's food too. Yuck. He's so low class and banal, yet keeps projecting this image of him being so high class. I simply can't understand why people are so enthralled with him.
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# ¿ Apr 15, 2023 20:12 |
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DeeplyConcerned posted:Let me put it this way. If a presidential candidate came along and supported everything you support, promised to fight like hell to bring those things about, then won the primary would you support them? Except he actually _didn't_ do anything he promised. What was his signature achievements in his term of office? The tax cut? Border wall? Nope Repealing Obamacare? Nope Withdrawing from NATO? Nope Cutting dependence on China? Nope Reducing illegal immigration? Nope. The only thing he got done when they had the trifecta was the tax cut which only really helped the rich class. Everyone else got a marginal tax cut that sunsets while the corp tax cut is forever. OK, he got a shitload of judges in too, but that wasn't really him, that was the federalist society giving him a list of 'good judges' and him scrawling his signature on it with a McDonald's crayon.
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# ¿ Apr 15, 2023 21:22 |
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Clarste posted:If it makes you feel any better (it shouldn't) a lot of Republicans also think they're voting for the lesser evil. Very true. Its sad that politics has become a team sport. Less and less crossover voters these days. In 2016 had Hillary been running against anyone other than Trump I might have seriously considered voting for the Republican, but I instead held my nose and voted for her. I never in a million years thought Trump would actually win.
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# ¿ Apr 16, 2023 02:37 |
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Google Jeb Bush posted:I'm just operating on the assumption that default doesn't happen, the same way I'm operating on the assumption that I won't be taken out by a deorbiting toilet seat tomorrow. Exactly how it doesn't happen will be interesting. I don't believe a default will happen either, but I suspect Biden will blink a little bit if McCarthy gives. However...if McCarthy gives then he's could be ejected from the speakership. If that happens.... Cimber fucked around with this message at 22:57 on Apr 19, 2023 |
# ¿ Apr 19, 2023 22:40 |
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https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/21/politics/supreme-court-abortion-pill-mifepristone/index.htmlquote:
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# ¿ Apr 21, 2023 23:48 |
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That goofball is my congressman. I'm in a constant state of disgust to think that con artist 'represents' me. I surely hope he does the right thing and resign, but I know that he won't.
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# ¿ May 10, 2023 15:45 |
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Failed Imagineer posted:You have to admit though that he represents the sort of generalized cursed aura that permeates the North Shore I'm on the south shore, but yeah, I think he represents the area pretty accurately.
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# ¿ May 10, 2023 15:55 |
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Blue Footed Booby posted:Wikipedia has evangelicals as being outnumbered by mainline Protestants and Catholics, combined for Pew Research in 2014, individually by the Public Religion Research Institute in 2020. Just for the record. Evangelicals are very loud and outspoken, while a lot of mainline Protestants and Catholics are probably C&E types, (Christmas and Easter).
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# ¿ Aug 8, 2023 19:25 |
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# ¿ Jun 2, 2024 01:51 |
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Madkal posted:Regarding the loneliness thing I was biking around the other day and went by a park and saw a group of maybe 20-30 people playing games and cheering each other on and such and I thought "man I really would like to be doing what they are doing, being out with a whole group of people just having fun" and then I realized that: FWIW, I joined a fraternal organization (The Freemasons) exactly for what you wrote above. People don't really socialize any more like they used too. Chatting on facebook and discord doesn't count.
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# ¿ Aug 8, 2023 19:44 |