War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War

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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

I've also seen on twitter multiple accounts claiming countries are buying energy from China using Chinese currency and bypassing using reserve currency (US dollar), and this is going to destroy America.

I didn't think Chinese currency was all that valuable, so how is it possible to use it as a reserve currency?

I wonder if those are similar to the people who say that Gaddafi was about to destroy America forever with a new oil-purchasing reserve currency and that's why he was taken out, putting aside that the UK/France were the ones who wanted to intervene, not Obama.

# ¿ Apr 1, 2023 18:07

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# ¿ May 17, 2024 14:38

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

United States Files Forfeiture Action Against Over One Million Rounds of Ammunition Enroute from Iran to Yemen

Think there's a decent chance this stuff ends up in Ukraine?

# ¿ Apr 3, 2023 02:19

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

I think it's a bit of copium to say that Ukraine are the true puppetmasters of Bakhmut, but it is true that the Russians didn't make much headway anywhere else in their offensive. So if Russia truly "spent" an offensive's worth of manpower and equipment, then they didn't get much return on investment.

# ¿ Apr 16, 2023 01:03

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

Young Freud posted:

Just based off tactics NATO has impart onto the Ukrainians and previous examples in the first half of the war, if the Russians get bottlenecked, they're not going to stand and fight, they're going to stand and die: It's been NATO operating procedure, even before NATO to the Allies in WW2, to force the enemy to concentrate units, be it in pockets (the Falaise pocket in WW2) or bottlenecks (the hypothetical Fulda Gap or the very real Highway of Death in Iraq), so they're unable to maneuver and burn fuel in traffic jams, then beat the poo poo out of them with artillery and air power. NATO has donated the Ukrainians stuff like the HIMARS, which is renowned for it's long range precision warheads, but they were also provided M30A1 dual-purpose munitions, which peppers both infantry and light vehicles with 180,000 tungsten darts, like a shotgun.

We know that the Ukrainians have used the Rasputina to keep the Russians on vulnerable roads, and the Bayraktar drones to destroy choice clusters of logistics vehicles. As the better and more powerful weapons have become available to them, the more opportunities to cluster the Russians and shoot for complete destruction on their battle groups.

I'm not sure what you mean about the first half of the war. The Russians have been able to successfully retreat when their lines have crumbled, albeit often without a lot of their heavy equipment; their most disastrous losses have been during their own doomed assaults.

I don't think anyone should be assuming that there will be thousands of pocketed Russians in the next few months. And I thought the Fulda Gap was supposed to be a defensive bottleneck to desperately hold back the Soviets long enough for NATO militaries to mobilize, not a way to concentrate retreating troops into a killzone.

Quixzlizx fucked around with this message at 04:08 on Apr 25, 2023

# ¿ Apr 25, 2023 04:06

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

Small White Dragon posted:

I thought being in NATO preventing you from joining other alliances? No?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Mutual_Cooperation_and_Security_between_the_United_States_and_Japan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_Defense_Treaty_(United_States%E2%80%93South_Korea)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southeast_Asia_Treaty_Organization (now defunct)

Edit: Here's a current one that includes multiple NATO and non-NATO countries: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Eyes

Quixzlizx fucked around with this message at 17:40 on May 10, 2023

# ¿ May 10, 2023 17:34

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

Owling Howl posted:

Is Switzerland particularly well stocked in ammunition or ammunition production lines?

Other countries use Swiss ammunition, and they were also blocking re-export from those countries' stocks.

# ¿ May 13, 2023 18:03

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

I think an issue the Ukrainians probably have is that Putin seems to have a Trump-like approach to international relations, in that contracts are just a way of scamming idiot normies where you only follow the terms while they are advantageous to you, and trash them as soon as they aren't.

# ¿ May 24, 2023 06:37

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

Phlegmish posted:

Yeah, as far as I know a lot of their Western-armed and trained crack units are still being held in reserve. Will be interesting to see what happens once they finally enter the fray.

Can you provide a source for this, or was the "AFAIK" an indirect way of saying you're just making it up?

# ¿ Jun 11, 2023 17:58

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

Phlegmish posted:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-9-2023

I also remember reading somewhere else that specific elite units were among the reserves, but I can't find a source right now, so maybe I am indeed misremembering that part.

Thanks for the follow-up.

# ¿ Jun 11, 2023 18:36

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

Cpt_Obvious posted:

You're not wrong, the entirety of the Western war machine is sending everything they can spare and they still can't make hardware fas enough. Industrial powers like the US and Germany don't seem capable of keeping up with the needs of the Ukrainian military. You can see it in the thread, the small trickle of 14 tanks here, some javelins there, and always a need for more. More f-16s, more tanks, more everything. Russian, meanwhile, is shouldering this war on it's own dime. It's buying a few drones from Iran or whatever, but this is largely a Russian enterprise with Russian tanks and artillery and a seemingly bottomless supply of shells.

The one thing Russia does appear to be running out of is mercenaries. The weird happenings over the weekend may spell an end to the practice of using mercenaries to absorb losses. Normally you let the mercenaries do all the most dangerous and deadly poo poo because nobody cares when they die, and I guess that works as long as they will shut up and take it. Now it will be Russian soldiers filling those roles, taking those losses, which means domestic support could weaken as caskets come home.

Will it be enough for Putin to give up and turn around? I have no idea.

I like how you conveniently ignored that Russia is drawing down decades worth of already manufactured equipment dating back to the Soviet Union, while the West (or at least the US) is essentially sending crumbs compared to its overall military power. Also, there definitely doesn't seem to be a "bottomless supply of shells" any longer on the Russian side, although I guess they were hoping all of the useful idiots, dupes, and shills in the West would demand their governments give up during the first year.

Do you actually believe that the heroic Arsenal of Authoritarianism is single-handedly out-producing the decadent West?

# ¿ Jun 28, 2023 18:19

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

BillsPhoenix posted:

Russia is the aggressor here and not acting in good faith. They're murdering, committing war crimes.

But its ridiculous to claim they're irrational.

The majority of western think tanks, and public facing NATO brass, agreed with Russia's pre war assessment that Kiev would fall in a couple weeks at most. Hindsight doesn't make the original assessment irrational.

Russia had economic and strategic value via Crimea. Taking that isn't irrational.

Russia is now moving economic ties from western actors to India & China to ensure travelers, arms, food, and support. This is very rational.

Evil, murdering, even culturally genocidal. But not irrational.

Even the Western analysts/governments who thought that Ukraine would lose the conventional war quickly also claimed that Russia would never be able to pacify an entire country with Ukraine's land area and population and would be drawn into an unproductive, never-ending quagmire.

# ¿ Jul 3, 2023 18:27

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

BillsPhoenix posted:

This was not unilaterally agreed and it's a weird claim to make given how recently the Soviet Union existed.

I don't think continuing the war can be dismissed as irrational at the nation state level either. The majority of wars are prolonged affairs, the initial blitz failing had lead to improved ties with India & China. Europe is still, to this day, purchasing Russian oil & gas - the sanctions aren't that damning. Some Russian tech has been shown to be inferior, while others (attack helos) are superior.

I'm all for Russia ending this war of aggression. I just don't see how that's the obvious logical choice from their perspective.

Since you're the one who brought up that the West agreed that Ukraine would fall quickly, thus rationalizing Putin's actions, can you also mention the Western decision-makers who thought that the Ukrainians would welcome the Russians as liberators, making Ukraine economically productive from the outset?

# ¿ Jul 3, 2023 18:46

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

Djarum posted:

Well there is no reasonable scenario in which Russia can hold on to the entirety of the land bridge. Ukraine is not going to run out of weapons at any point in the near to mid future. Even if let's say Ukraine decides tomorrow to stop trying to push on the fronts they can easily continue to destroy Russian man and material throughout the region. This is increasingly costly to Russia as every command post, ammo dump, radar site, artillery emplacement, etc is target that is again not easily replaced. On top of that they can't develop the region to allow transport and settlement as it would be an active war zone. At a certain point the costs to Russia just becomes too great and you are unable to enact any returns on the expenditure.

Now in reality there is zero chance that the Russia defenses will hold long term. At a certain point there will be a break through, time is on the Ukrainian side here as well. They are not under pressure to make massive gains quickly and it is in their benefit to do it as safely as possible with the least amount of life lost. I think a lot of people were given unrealistic expectations from the last counteroffensive.

Honestly I don't think we would know who the players involved would be until it would happen. With Putin still around no one is going to even hint at that kind of ambition lest they find themselves by a high-rise window. Like I said before I think if it would happen it would come suddenly and out of nowhere like the coup attempt. You wouldn't see a long bubbling tensions with multiple factions in the open. Most likely things would pop off and you would see people take sides and form up ranks quickly. Talking about the potential of it happening at this point is not Clancychat but ins and outs are basically impossible to predict at this point.

I don't think this is true. I don't think NATO will want to funnel tons of money and equipment into a forever stalemate that stretches for years, or they'll at least stop providing what's needed for offensive breakthrough attempts if the Ukrainians are repeatedly burning those extra resources on doomed offensives that don't regain any ground.

And that's assuming the Z chuds don't make a comeback in the 2024 US elections.

# ¿ Jul 12, 2023 17:12

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

Herstory Begins Now posted:

buddy we love dumping a generation's of wealth into a decades long quagmire, it's the only thing we know. betting on the US not deciding to spend a decade or more pouring resources into a war is not a smart bet over the last half century.

also the presidential election stuff (and tbf pinning your geopolitical ambitions on Trump is not much smarter than the above bet) wouldn't begin to have an impact for 15 more months. the far more likely outcome at that point is just that support will continue quietly than that it will be instantly cut off.

Except now a significant percentage of Republicans are so shameless and ideologically bankrupt that they'll even rail against spending billions of dollars for stuff that will end up blowing up Russians if they think it'll make Democrats look bad.

And Trump is a total wild card who probably has some deranged petty grudge against Ukraine for "getting him impeached." I agree that any other Republican candidate wouldn't even consider immediately jamming their arm into the works.

# ¿ Jul 12, 2023 17:26

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

Enjoy posted:

Very interesting. If training and integration are such major factors in the failure of the counter-offensive to make gains, it seems obvious that Ukraine should halt the counter-offensive and spend some months training their forces on the equipment they are being sent. And enough equipment needs to be sent to make these new formations large enough to be decisive.

I'm no expert, but that thread makes it sound like the major issue is their ability to execute their doctrine/operational plans, and not their ability to operate particular pieces of equipment, although they're obviously not completely unrelated.

# ¿ Jul 18, 2023 19:09

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

Xander77 posted:

Granted, for the sake of argument. But there's "the US government" and then there's the parasitical military-industrial complex. The US military and the private companies surrounding it aren't there to help people, they're there to kill foreigners and leech money.

The US framed every war it engaged in over the course of the last century (century and a decade, now) as totally justified in terms of defending itself and \ or poor oppressed and attacked people on the other side of the world.

Vietnam (for example) also started out with defending the sovereign nation of South Vietnam from a "foreign invasion" by supplying them with munitions and training, rather than direct intervention.

Edit - As you may note, I'm all for Ukraine defending itself and \ or for killing as many of my former countrymen on its territory as possible. I'm just noting that "oh, this particular conflict we're sticking our nose into is totally justified" is understandable skepticism.

Or maybe a person could try using their brain by judging the situation on its own merits instead of making lazy generalities and/or regurgitating whatever their political safe space group and/or favorite grifting politician/talking head/podcaster/blogger/social media personality is saying about it?

# ¿ Aug 6, 2023 14:50

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

Cpt_Obvious posted:

For everyone that wanted a capitalist Russia, this is what it looks like

Is this the tankie corollary to "true communism has never been attempted"?

# ¿ Aug 8, 2023 23:03

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

ethanol posted:

it often feels like people look at national debt as a bad omen ticking doomsday device with no logic on when the timer ends and what happens after

I think we figured out long ago war is generally a jobs boost in America which is on the whole a positive impact on the economy. Therefore, war is good for the economy. probably up until you start losing whole cities to bombs and / or hyper inflate your currency.

how many times has the US built up its arsenal and exported it? are we at some inflection point where we can't do that anymore? that seems fanciful.

edit: I do think putin is hedging bets on the US pulling out though, particularly if the 2024 election goes sideways...

This is also overly simplistic/reductionist. If the US spent a billion dollars on healthcare or education or infrastructure or whatever, it would be a far larger "boost" than spending the same billion to send off bombs somewhere.

There's no need to spin the issue into "war is a net positive, actually."

# ¿ Aug 9, 2023 01:38

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

Is there a chart version of the media literacy thread? That y-axis, lol.

# ¿ Aug 18, 2023 06:38

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

1. Anyone trying to justify patsy suicide bombers is an embarrassment.

2. Anyone claiming to have ended their support of aid to Ukraine over this is a concern troll.

I hope this helps.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ¿ Aug 20, 2023 00:19

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

I don't even know who anyone is arguing with, it's not like there have been trolls coming into the thread to rile people up on this specific issue like the genocide-denial ones or the ones months ago who were posting pics of random Ukrainian soldiers with potentially fash tattoos to prove that glorious Russia is in the right.

# ¿ Aug 20, 2023 19:07

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

Cable Guy posted:

You can solve most problems with a good transporter log...

The Kyiv Independent is reporting that as well.
https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-chechen-warlord-kadyrov-in-critical-condition/

Not sure of their credibility though.

They're all reporting the same thing (that an SBU spokesperson is claiming this), so it's the credibility of the SBU statement that's in question.

# ¿ Sep 16, 2023 04:12

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

The co-founder of Code Pink married a leftist tech millionaire who runs a global propaganda network for the Chinese Communist Party.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/05/world/europe/neville-roy-singham-china-propaganda.html

quote:

Since 2017, about a quarter of Code Pink�s donations � more than $1.4 million � have come from two groups linked to Mr. Singham, nonprofit records show. The first was one of the UPS store nonprofits. The second was a charity that Goldman Sachs offers as a conduit for clients� giving, and that Mr. Singham has used in the past.
Ms. Evans now stridently supports China. She casts it as a defender of the oppressed and a model for economic growth without slavery or war. �If the U.S. crushes China,� she said in 2021, it �would cut off hope for the human race and life on Earth.�
She describes the Uyghurs as terrorists and defends their mass detention. �We have to do something,� she said in 2021. In a recent YouTube video chat, she was asked if she had anything negative to say about China.
�I can�t, for the life of me, think of anything,� Ms. Evans responded. She ultimately had one complaint: She had trouble using China�s phone-based payment apps.

quote:

But Code Pink goes further, defending the Chinese government�s policies. In a 2021 video, a staff member compared Hong Kong�s pro-democracy demonstrators to the rioters who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6 that year.
In June, Code Pink activists visited staff members on the House Select Committee on China unannounced. In the office of Representative Seth Moulton, Democrat of Massachusetts, activists denied evidence of forced labor in Xinjiang and said the congressman should visit and see how happy people were there, according to an aide.

So, I'm guessing they're not about to go in hard on Russia, either.

# ¿ Oct 6, 2023 02:22

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

The Russian Army Dragged Old Experimental BTR-90 Vehicles From A Test Site�And Sent Them To Ukraine

I hope they aren't about to deploy the C&C Red Alert kit.

# ¿ Oct 15, 2023 05:27

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

I'm assuming Pakistanis have some thoughts about attempts to be forcibly assimilated back into the mothership.

# ¿ Nov 16, 2023 02:34

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

It's probably a bad sign for Ukrainian aid that Geert Wilders' party (PVV) received the most seats in the Dutch elections. From what I can tell, they seem like the Dutch version of AfD/National Rally.

# ¿ Nov 24, 2023 03:09

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

Nenonen posted:

Like do you know what has stated about Ukraine, for instance? It's not like one party can form a majority government anyway.

And we have an example from Italy that right wing populists rising doesn't automatically mean that support for Ukraine will vanish.

No need to be patronizing, because it sounds like you don't know what he's said:

quote:

In an X (formerly Twitter) update on Feb. 24, 2022, the day the full-scale invasion started, he also rejected military aid to Ukraine with a comment saying: �Do not let Dutch households pay the price for a war that is not ours.�

He also said �sanctions are ineffective and also bad for the Netherlands� in another X update. In 2016, Wilders and his party said �no� to the Association Treaty between Ukraine and the EU.

quote:

Like other far-right leaders on the continent, Wilders has praised Vladimir Putin�s rule, rallying against what he has described as �hysterical Russophobia� in Europe.

Four years after Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula, Wilders travelled to Moscow and met senior Russian officials in the Duma, a trip that was fiercely condemned by relatives of Dutch victims of the shooting down of flight MH17, who blamed him for ignoring Moscow�s part in the disaster.

He's also anti-EU, which means he has a chance of being obstructionist on EU-level initiatives on principle if PVV manages to form a coalition.

# ¿ Nov 24, 2023 05:35

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/10/hungary-viktor-orban-republicans-ukraine-aid

It's about Orban's support of Putin, his sabotage of the EU response, and the coordination of the far-right Internationale. For some reason I thought the Heritage Foundation was more of a Koch-like libertarian dystopia think tank, less of a MAGA one, but I guess I can't keep all the assholes straight.

Not paywalled, so I'll just post the intro:

quote:

Allies of Hungary�s far-right prime minister Viktor Orb�n will hold a closed-door meeting with Republicans in Washington to push for an end to US military support for Ukraine, the Guardian has learned.

Members of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs and staff from the Hungarian embassy in Washington will on Monday begin a two-day event hosted by the conservative Heritage Foundation thinktank.

And one particularly gross excerpt:

quote:

Hungary has been portrayed by conservative media as an anti-�woke� paradise and model for the United States. Some far-right Republicans, such as Kari Lake and Paul Gosar, said they would like to see the �Hungarian model� transplanted to the US, especially when it comes to immigration and family policies. CPAC went to Hungary for the second time this year, and former Fox News host Tucker Carlson shot multiple episodes in Hungary touting Orb�n policies.

# ¿ Dec 11, 2023 01:53

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

GABA ghoul posted:

Probably worth mentioning that all these regressive "anti-woke" & "family oriented" authoritarian states like Hungary or Russia actually have piss poor birth rates that are lower than the countries supposedly living under the brutal yoke of the gay agenda like Scandinavia or France.

I'm sure they say that the birth-rates in wokeland are due to white replacement.

# ¿ Dec 11, 2023 02:58

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

https://thehill.com/homenews/4360407-congress-approves-bill-barring-president-withdrawing-nato/

:sad:

The funniest part about this is NATO is near the bottom of the average MAGA voter's list of priorities, while it's a crushing blow to tankie hopium.

# ¿ Dec 16, 2023 22:21

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

BougieBitch posted:

I mean, the US doesn't respect that right domestically. Even setting that aside, the US has capital punishment still.

I think you missed the OP's point. In the US, even if it's for a lovely/corrupt/power-tripping reason, the authorities still have to point to some sort of asset forfeiture/eminent domain/etc. law/precedent in a courtroom if they're sued for taking someone's stuff, they just can't say "because I felt like it." And if they ignore a court's ruling, that's evidence of the rule of law breaking down in general, not of property rights specifically.

# ¿ Dec 28, 2023 16:25

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

Why is the thread getting riled up by a 2-day old account making outlandish claims about their credentials?

:sad:

# ¿ Feb 6, 2024 19:26

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

cr0y posted:

Who in the gently caress was that Putin / Tucker interview even for?

It was probably supposed to produce some sick burns against Biden/America that chuds/tankies could use to meme and spread around, but the only clip that's gone viral so far is the sick burn on Carlson.

# ¿ Feb 10, 2024 18:29

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

Gravitas Shortfall posted:

I thought the rules explicitly stated that we have to assume everyone is posting earnestly and with total honesty and not in bad faith, so as I understand it feeding the trolls is mandatory.

People could just ignore them instead of endlessly posting at them, although I agree with you that the rules give off strong Elon at X "I am a very smart master of free speech" energy.

# ¿ Apr 20, 2024 18:35

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# ¿ May 17, 2024 14:38

Quixzlizx: Jan 7, 2007

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68941220.amp

quote:

The US has accused Russia of deploying chemical weapons as a "method of warfare" in Ukraine, in violation of international laws banning their use.

State department officials said Russia used the choking agent chloropicrin to win "battlefield gains" over Ukraine.

The allegations, which US officials said were not an "isolated" incident, would contravene the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), which Russia signed.

The Kremlin rejected the accusations, calling them "baseless".

Shells from NK, drones from Iran, and now Assad has something to contribute when needed.

# ¿ May 2, 2024 14:56

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