(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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So routine spring conscription is happening in Russia now: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-signs-decree-routine-spring-conscription-tass-agency-2023-03-30/ So as I understand it these conscripts will need training, can't legally be sent into combat (ex Bakhmut), but can be pressured into joining as contract soldiers? Have conscripts been deployed in annexed regions already (ex: performing security or building fortifications)? My feeling is that the war will probably last for a few more years, so good luck toxxers.
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Mar 31, 2023 18:57
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https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1641829147050758144?cxt=HHwWgMC-vaK6-cgtAAAA Ukrainian air force confirms use of JDAMs. So I think this started because Russian air force has been conducting more attacks using glide bombs as well. I wonder if this is both sides figuring out ways to exploit ground based air defense or if I'm reading too much into it.
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Mar 31, 2023 20:03
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saratoga posted:Realistically just keeping what semiconductor equipment is already working supplied and maintained is going to be tricky once cut off from international suppliers (which are mostly in the US, EU and Japan). Combined with the timescale for developing and then ramping new capacity (years in ideal scenarios), essentially all semiconductors they can't already make are going to have been smuggled in from other countries. I think from what my own limited review of the breakdowns of downed Russian equipment, the Western supplied parts have generally been widely available commercial grade equipment that wouldn't be too hard to source for somebody motivated. It's stuff like mid-low end fpgas a college lab might buy hundreds of. I imagine developing new tech and solving obsolescence will be issues but I'm not counting on more than a slight squeeze.
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Mar 31, 2023 21:37
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https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1642165686788038656?cxt=HHwWgICx9bq_ksotAAAA Michael Kofman tweet on Russian tactics in Bakhmut - where Russian forces have been pressing more in central Bakhmut rather than the north and south to complete the pincer. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1641924449946554368?cxt=HHwWgMC-sdDlpMktAAAA I'm not necessarily sure how pushing into the center of the city avoids those problems though?
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Apr 1, 2023 17:17
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cinci zoo sniper posted:People wanted a chiller thread, and it's the 1st of April, and I've evidently made a decision to post it. That said, between this post being the immediate response to it and that post being the last on its page, the joke will definitely land closer to the heart of your post than to its desired effect. I think we said we wanted more joke posts by funny people.  Ukraine buying some wheeled apcs from Poland. Imagine it would be nice for the Ukranian logistics fellows to finally get away from the mishmash approach. What will they even do with all the stuff they have left over if they don't standardize to it? https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1642190305377042432?cxt=HHwWgIC22bnYncotAAAA
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Apr 1, 2023 17:43
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big shtick energy posted:According to this article, russian planes have been dropping bombs on ukranian forces: https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/03/30/russians-started-dropping-guided-aviation-bombs-on-the-frontline-en-masse/ I thought those were referring to the JDAM gliding bomb equivalent Russia has, which has been getting coverage since early March. https://kyivindependent.com/defense-express-russia-uses-new-1-5-ton-gliding-bombs-on-ukraine-for-first-time/ https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/expert-russia-1-500-kg-111800910.html
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Apr 2, 2023 02:31
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Rappaport posted:Finland made a bit of a foreign policy thing about going together with Sweden, because Finland and Sweden are usually foreign policy buddies going back to the Cold War and how Finland needed Sweden to threaten the Soviet Union with Sweden joining NATO to keep the Soviets off Finland's back. All that said, this was dropped when it became clear that Ergodan had his sights set on Sweden's supposed friendliness with what Turkey calls terrorist organizations. It is left as an exercise to the reader to determine how terroristic these groups may or may not be. I think the question is if Finland is a NATO member, if they have to in turn ratify Sweden's accession protocol as NATO members.
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Apr 2, 2023 08:37
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I don't really know anything about the pro-Russian bloggers, is this a Strelkov type figure who is critical of the Russian MOD or some hard-right guy? Analogous to the attack on Dugin?
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Apr 2, 2023 17:44
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https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-mar-31-apr-1 I think Wagner has claimed a progress around he city center on 3/31 in the day with a different video. I wonder how risky the Prigozhin photo op is though, feeling some pressure perhaps?
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Apr 3, 2023 15:43
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So after a few rounds of rumors it seems like it's there's more solid confirmation that General Rastam Muradov was fired for failures in Vuhledar. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/04/03/top-russian-general-dismissed-after-vuhledar-defeat-a80690 Ukrainian airforce spokesmen speak of probing attacks with waves of 10-15 shaheds. It did seem to me that air raid alerts have been more common in Ukraine lately, so did the Iranians send a large shipment recently? https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1642937978623344650?cxt=HHwWlIC-veHY8cwtAAAA Noel theorizes that Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut have fallen back to the railway. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1642810626991857670 Edit: some footage of Ukrainians training on anti drone technicals: pickups with antiaircraft guns seem like a good idea to me. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1642320193488576515?cxt=HHwWhoCzxffg2MotAAAA WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 22:29 on Apr 3, 2023 |
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Apr 3, 2023 20:27
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Official defense.gov release of the aid package posted above: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3350958/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/ Presidential Drawdown aka quick section: quote:Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems; USAI aka slow section: quote:Additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS); Is the Patriot in Ukraine already active?
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Apr 4, 2023 21:08
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In other news, statements before the US-EU energy council: https://www.state.gov/secretary-ant...s-to-the-press/ Some harsh remarks towards China quote:We have been discussing with Secretary Blinken about the role of China on supporting Russia’s blatant violations of the United Nations Charter. There is a clear expectation from a permanent member of the Security Council to stand up in defense of international rules-based order. And China has a moral duty to contribute to a fair peace. They cannot be siding with the aggressor. They cannot be militarily supporting the aggression. And some further cooperation: quote:Josep and I also discussed the United States and Europe’s unprecedented cooperation on energy security, and indeed, we’ll take that up in more detail in a few minutes. We share a commitment to preventing a climate catastrophe, accelerating the global clean energy transition, building resilient, secure, and diversified supply chains for renewable energy – and doing it in a way that creates good-paying jobs and lowers costs for people on both sides of the Atlantic. I think there have been tensions in the EU over a trade war from Biden's BBB plan - is that matter settled yet?
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Apr 4, 2023 21:18
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Kraftwerk posted:Is there any news about Ukraine switching their service rifles to NATO 5.56.mm variants or are they still using Soviet/Russian 5.45mm and these "millions of rounds" are being procured through some other means? I dunno about anything official but it seems like small arms are as much a mish mash as everything else the Ukrainian army has. I'm pretty sure I've seen M4s for example in the Ukrainian forces.
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Apr 4, 2023 21:59
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Moon Slayer posted:Yeah there's a big difference between a visit and a state visit, but everyone including the media often use the terms interchangeably. What is the difference besides the pomp and circumstance? I'm really not sure what the significance of the state part is? Is it just an invitation? In new it looks like the Czechs are also jumping in with more funding: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/2/7396122/ I think the EU has also announced more aid in the press conference yesterday. Are there publications about what's in each of these packages like for the US? https://mil.in.ua/en/news/poland-transferred-8-mig-29-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/ Also one thing that sticks out to me about the Polish mig transfers is: Duda posted:“After the modernization, they have equipment that was transferred from the US. There is a NATO connection. And formalities must be observed in connection with this,” Wasn't the Polish fleet of mig-29s like 30ish planes? How are they not all standardized the same? I thought the US rejection in 2022 was because of the existence of NATO kit on them, but apparently Poland is running some weird frankenfleet? Is every EU military just a weird hodgepodge? WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 19:12 on Apr 5, 2023 |
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Apr 5, 2023 19:04
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I thought Blinken said this:quote:European partners have spent about $13 billion in European – in military assistance thus far, on top of tens of billions more in economic and humanitarian assistance, extraordinary support for refugees who have come from Ukraine. We very much appreciate the announcement from the EU that it will be providing an additional 2 billion in euros worth of ammunition through its European Peace Facility. But I wasn't sure what it referred to, might be something old.
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Apr 5, 2023 20:11
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So is Macron's visit to China likely going to be another nothing burger on the conflict? https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/world/europe/xi-macron-ukraine-russia.html If the best soundbite they can get is quote:Appeals for the protection of civilians. Nuclear weapons must not be used, and nuclear war must not be fought. That's not saying much. Maybe China is still balancing the scales. But I have a feeling that like Macron's diplomatic attempts with Putin, the warm words will fade to nothing the moment he leaves.
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Apr 7, 2023 00:42
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The specific leak I think: https://twitter.com/andrrrwwwsha/status/1644142617238597634/photo/1 Aric Toler of Bellingcat claims it's a digit swap for casualties: https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1644139100407054336 Edit: I think my takeaway here is that Russian intel gathering capabilities are still pretty good (as has been stated before) WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 02:26 on Apr 7, 2023 |
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Apr 7, 2023 02:24
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https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1644148253426868224?cxt=HHwWgICzuYOImNEtAAAA Plot thickens, agree that it would be extremely funny if a poster on 4chan posted it instead of Russian psyops.
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Apr 7, 2023 02:52
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lolquote:here, have some leaked documents extra lol if this is real: WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 17:52 on Apr 7, 2023 |
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Apr 7, 2023 17:47
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War In Ukraine: I AM NOT FROM AMERICA I MUST BE FINE
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Apr 7, 2023 18:39
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Willo567 posted:I have no idea why news corporations even take Medvedev seriously despite proving to be a joke other than he used to be president of Russia for a couple of years That's actually quite a few people like Girkin or even Solovyov where I don't really understand why their statements deserve coverage. But I guess it's really hard to cover the firehose of bullshit strategy without talking about them.
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Apr 9, 2023 01:15
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/08/ukraine-ammunition-shortage-shells-ration/ An interesting Washington Post article about the ammo shortages faced by Ukraine: Selected quotes that stood out to me: quote:Even amid a shortage, Ukraine is firing some 7,700 shells per day, or roughly one every six seconds, according to a Ukrainian military official who spoke on the condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly. Russia, which may also be running low, is firing more — by some estimates triple that amount. quote:To keep up with their adversary and still conserve ammunition, the Ukrainian military is now pickier in selecting targets, often prioritizing equipment over small groups of infantry. Precision is key because misses mean wasted shells. And in underground workshops across eastern Ukraine, soldiers are using 3D printers and recycling unexploded ordnance to create alternative munitions. quote:In the meantime, the hunt for shells is occasionally perilous. In areas where Russian forces retreated, soldiers wade through mined fields and forest to look for abandoned ammunition. One such group, which was ferrying any shells to the 59th brigade, recently hit unexploded ordnance. quote:The Ukrainians have also explored creative conservation tactics. In some cases, crews bring unexploded ordinances originally fired by the Russians to secret labs in eastern Ukraine, and the elements are carefully stripped away to create a new munition. Surprised that scavenging UXO is a viable method of ammo procurement.
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Apr 9, 2023 23:38
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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1645391986990411776?cxt=HHwWgMCzzezSzdUtAAAA Some cool footage of Ukrainian aircraft taking off on highways. WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 17:28 on Apr 10, 2023 |
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Apr 10, 2023 15:51
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hobbez posted:The CSPAM thread seems to think this means Ukraine will imminently be out of SAMs. But it seems like this was a document formed in anticipation of the situation, and the US/Allie’s have likely bolstered Ukrainian supplies by now? The docs are over 2 months old now. I don't see how the leak changed anything since anti air capabilities have been talked about for a long time and were one of the top priorities for western aid for a long time. The situation might be dire or it might be bait to get the Russians to commit more of their airforce. We know that Russian air power has been making more of an appearance on the front line for weeks so this might have been already happening well before the leaks made it public.
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Apr 10, 2023 19:07
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Kyiv Independent article on Russian gliding bombs: https://kyivindependent.com/russias-smart-bombs-pose-increasingly-serious-threat-to-ukraine/ Selected quotes: quote:In March, Russian forces were also seen using munitions identified as 1,500-kilogram UPAB-1500B guided bombs in Avdiivka, which has become the target of devastating air strikes wiping away city blocks. quote:At the same time, the effective range is the problem. Ukrainian S-300 systems can cover a range of up to 75 kilometers, Buk-M1 systems — up to 35 kilometers. But if deployed in rear front areas, between 10 or 15 kilometers behind the front, Ukrainian systems would be almost inevitably spotted by Russian radio-electronic reconnaissance and targeted by any means available, including artillery. quote:The Ukrainian Air Force sees the best possible solution in acquiring modern multirole aircraft, particularly General Dynamics F-16s, along with AIM-120 air-to-air missiles.
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Apr 11, 2023 04:28
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I might be out of the loop as IT person but they're still printing off classified intelligence on paper? I'm surprised they don't hand out locked down PCs that have nearly everything with Digital Rights Management. Yeah, seeing this makes me think dealing with classified stuff as an engineer must be worlds different than a politician. Everything was scif only, all entries were logged, everything printed had watermarks detailing which printer, when, and which account ordered the job, nothing could be taken out of the secure rooms. Whereas intel briefings can just be forgotten and lying around some guy's house?
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Apr 11, 2023 05:21
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:there's still need to know restrictions. why would we give the dumbass 19 year old who has a clearance so they can work on navy reactors or whatever all our Ukraine troop attrition info and intercept data from the Egyptian military? maybe some idiot young congressional aide for someone on an intelligence committee though. idk how we handle what they have access to That at least one leaked doc had the Top Secret marking as well.
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Apr 12, 2023 16:56
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Wagner apparently tried to buy weapons from Turkey from the leaked docs: https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/12/politics/leaked-documents-wagner-group-turkey/index.html No evidence that the deal went through in the end, but makes you wonder who else they tried and who said yes in the end.
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Apr 12, 2023 23:03
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The citteam has jumped on the sitrep bandwagon and I've been liking the updates but this story from telegram is suggesting that recruitment of contract soldiers from the conscripts through dubious means is happening. https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-apr-11-12 quote:The Astra Telegram channel reports that 500 draftees from different regions of Russia (mainly from the Moscow, Voronezh, and Tver regions) were sent by cargo aircraft from Kursk to Rostov-on-Don on Apr. 5. The servicemen were told they would have field training and be assigned to a local military unit. However, at night they were transported by trucks across the border to the Luhansk region to the Stakhanov Railway Car Building Plant in Kadiivka and their military IDs were seized. According to the draftees, the Wagner Group officers arrived and tried to force them into signing contracts under duress. "Volunteers" were supposed to form the Wolves group of mercenaries and be deployed to Bakhmut. After the servicemen refused to sign the contracts, the "ex-president" of so-called South Ossetia, Lieutenant General Anatoly Bibilov, arrived to break the draftees' skepticism. According to the servicemen, he hit a lieutenant colonel in the face for daring to stand up for them and saying that "the draftees should not be here." I have no idea what the Astra telegram channel is, anybody know?
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Apr 13, 2023 00:56
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cinci zoo sniper posted:What do you mean? They've been doing them since last September, and have been cited repeatedly in this thread. I've seen a lot of the volunteer summaries but I thought they've only been doing sitreps for the past couple months, my bad.
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Apr 13, 2023 01:12
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I don't even understand why these idiots are talking to reporters or what they're trying to say. I'm telling the reporter I know everything but I will go to prison before I reveal the name of the leaker, who btw is my bff.
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Apr 13, 2023 06:13
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It would be really interesting if the subsequent investigation into the security practices at that base is ever made public to figure out exactly how he was able to do it. I guarantee that there are rules that were already supposed to prevent this being circumvented somehow by shoddy implementation.
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Apr 14, 2023 07:32
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Akratic Method posted:China now claiming they they won't supply Russia (or Ukraine to make it sound fair and neutral, but I don't think there was ever much chance of that anyway). As others have already said, I don't believe this is a change in stance by China. It's always been both sides are at fault, we believe in a negotiated peace. I think I'll wait to see if there are any crackdowns on say exports of civilian drones to the conflict before I believe anything. Any such crackdown could impact supplies to either side as well, so selective enforcement would be something to watch for.
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Apr 14, 2023 21:39
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Charliegrs posted:Regarding the really ancient tanks that Russia has sent to Ukraine like T62s and I guess even T55s? Does Russia keep crews trained on these old tanks or is it more like crews that are trained on more modern tanks like T72s can man the older tanks without any issues? Like I know that T55s have a gunner position (and maybe T62s as well) whereas the newer tanks all have autoloaders so does Russia keep T55 tank loaders trained up at all times even though most of their T55s have been sitting in storage for decades? It's funny implying that Russia has trained tank crews for their newer tanks on hand. I imagine these are freshly contracted soldiers figuring stuff out on the old tanks.
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Apr 15, 2023 00:09
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https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1647180433849823232 The situation in Bakhmut continues to get worse. But it seems in general there have been less or even no daily updates on movements on the other fronts so the Russian offensive is hopefully wound done everywhere else. Hope the few civilians in Russian controlled Bakhmut are still getting supplies, I imagine local infrastructure is completely gone by now.
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Apr 15, 2023 17:49
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cinci zoo sniper posted:The remaining population has been largely living in basements for half a year now, supplied by trucks. The count estimate as of early March was down to roughly 4000. There was a documentary about civilian life in Bakhmut before the press left where they interviewed people staying there. There was one older man who was talking about sheltering with a female neighbor, and how she died from an artillery strike. You could tell he loved her and was absolutely mentally broken with nothing left to live for. Just rough stuff. I feel like there are people like that guy who won't move from his basement no matter what sticking it out regardless of who owns the land. I'm not sure if the humanitarian supplies are still making it into the city or if they're just living off stockpiles now.
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Apr 15, 2023 18:04
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Is it better in some ways to have some younger people in charge? It seems like a lot of nations have a gerontocracy problem.
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Apr 17, 2023 23:20
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War on the Rocks put out a good read on informal assistance to Ukraine: https://warontherocks.com/2023/04/more-than-a-hobby-informal-security-assistance-to-ukraine/ Some interesting tidbits that stood out to me: The good: quote:While some may argue that the aid provided by non-state actors — relative to over $113 billion in global aid provided to Ukraine — is too small to make an impact, we believe the aid has had a tangible effect. Highly motivated groups are providing equipment with a comparative advantage in areas where formalized state aid cannot. Several Ukrainian soldiers told us that “It’s more common for the average Ukrainian unit to have 100 percent of its drones sourced from these non-governmental organizations [Prytula Foundation, Come Back Alive, and Monsters Corporation], not our Ministry of Defense…and these drones already come ‘modified’ so they’re ready for combat use when they arrive.” The not so good: quote:A Ukrainian group, Aerorozvidka, has direct ties to the Ukrainian military. It has been operating since 2014 and created the R18 octocopter drone. Ukrainian troops use this drone to drop grenades on Russian forces. Drones are a major focus of funding drives. In July, citizens in both Poland and Lithuania raised over $5 million dollars in private donations to supply Ukraine with Bayraktar drones. The Polish campaign inspired the Turkish drone manufacturer to provide several for free and allocated the money raised to humanitarian aid organizations. At the same time, the crowdsourcing of Bayraktar drones, for example, creates a supply-side issue, pressuring the Ukrainian military to use them even though the money would be better spent on more critical demands on the front, like artillery and mortar rounds, according to several Ukrainian officers contacted. The "good" kind of classified material leak: quote:Some Ukrainian troops noted that many of their weapons and ammo do not come with guides or firing tables. NATO personnel, according to Ukrainian sources we interviewed, have privately responded to such needs and acquired this information through unofficial channels, providing it directly to frontline units. In another case, Ukrainian soldiers told us that Western military officers have set up Facetime calls to teach their units how to use weapons, such as a recently acquired rocket-propelled grenade that did not have instructions. A different Ukrainian unit encountered problems related to mounting adapters for aiming sights on Western machine guns. The oversight caused a several-week delay but was eventually overcome with help from personal networks between Western special operations units. Most Ukrainian troops appreciate these informal solutions, but the United States and Europe could do a better job of ensuring future war matériel deliveries actually make sense for the Ukrainian military. Interesting read for sure.
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Apr 18, 2023 09:34
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In other news, the leaks keep giving: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/17/russia-ukraine-egypt-weapons-leaked-documents/ Sounds like Egypt was another country being courted to produce ammo. quote:The first, dated Feb. 17, reports that Egypt took steps in late January and early February to secretly supply rockets to Russia, including setting a price and making plans for obtaining brass to make the rockets. In a conversation on Jan. 31, Minister of State for Military Production Mohamed Salah al-Din told Sisi that he advised Russian delegates that their agreed price of $1,100 per unit could rise to $1,500 due to a potential increase in brass prices. The Russians were ready to “buy anything,” he told Sisi. The Egyptian president also told Salah al-Din, according to the document, to request “specialized equipment” from Russia to improve the accuracy of the rockets or the quality of the Egyptian factories making them.
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Apr 18, 2023 09:48
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jaete posted:So I take it the Russian attackers lost? Why did they lose? Were there not enough Russians attacking - people always talk about "you should have 5 times more soldiers when attacking" or similar estimates? I haven't watched the video in question but it seems really hard to answer these questions from a 12 minute combat clip? The only reason we would know artillery didn't hit is that these troops were able to survive and we have no idea how accurate fire support is, the time lag, or even if this particular assault unit has any priority given the rationing going on. Also, unless a guy points out a Russian drone spotting them, I dunno how you can answer the second question though we know Russian doctrine docs floating around suggests that assault units should have drone support. Maybe some more capable analysts can figure something out or the clip is particularly illuminating, but it just seems weird to expect answers like that.
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Apr 20, 2023 16:55
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