(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Tigey posted:And beyond this, all Dictators say this kind of thing on a regular basis, promising that this is their last term, and they really will stand down at the end of it. Maybe I missed something in the tail end of the last thread. Did cinci say this new one was going to be the last Ukraine thread he'll moderate? drat the sixers,  ahead!https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1641892557591400456?s=20 Content: Patrushev seems to have gone off the deep end even more than usual. At this point, I'm wondering if Russia has some sort of concerted Inverse Madman Theory, calibrated to make Putin look like he's the sanest one left in the room.
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Apr 1, 2023 16:13
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big shtick energy posted:According to this article, russian planes have been dropping bombs on ukranian forces: https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/03/30/russians-started-dropping-guided-aviation-bombs-on-the-frontline-en-masse/ There's been RUMINT (Tom Cooper's blog) since at least a couple of weeks ago that Ukrainian high-altitude air defense has been pushed back and no longer covers Avdiivka, allowing the Russians to bomb it. I have no idea what his sources for that were, as I didn't see any real confirmation on English twitter.
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Apr 2, 2023 00:38
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https://twitter.com/DrRadchenko/status/1642768744974897158?t=FGIPGxD1IjeZFPSfF6KpUg&s=19 Some new insights into the Cuban Missile Crisis and Soviet decision making by two top-notch historians, based on recently declassified documents. They also draw numerous obvious comparisons to the present, which makes this pretty relevant for this thread.
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Apr 3, 2023 11:20
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SixFigureSandwich posted:https://www.foreignaffairs.com/cuba/missile-crisis-secret-history-soviet-union-russia-ukraine-lessons Fair enough. Radchenko is a worthwhile account to follow for those of us who still use twitter, that's why I linked him.
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Apr 3, 2023 15:08
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Minecraft, more like tradecraft Reality has a new winner
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Apr 7, 2023 20:35
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This New York Times article goes into some detail about the air defense situation, but it also includes screenshots of leaked documents, so it may not be safe for some. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/us/politics/leaked-documents-ukrainian-air-defense.html People like Kofman and Watling have been pointing out that the supply for AD is dire for months now, and thanks to the leaks, we now know how bad it really is. This may have a bigger impact than the shortage of artillery shells, because that also affects Russia. But they still have their air force, and if missiles run out, the situation on the frontlines may be getting much worse.
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Apr 10, 2023 08:48
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PederP posted:As an outsider what I find really frustrating is that it is very hard to figure out what the actual information landscape inside Russia looks like. I mean, we have plenty of unhinged people in my own country, and when international media cover Danish politics, what I see is not a very representative version of reality. I suspect the same goes for coverage of Russia (even if to a lesser extent as Russia is much more relevant in a global context and international media have a lot more available expertise and insight on Russia than on Denmark). So I am left wondering what pundits are we not hearing about? Who listens to the deranged politicians and pundits? How much influence do they have and what roles do they play as mouthpieces of various power structures and socio-political undercurrents? There's a lot of sensationalism going on in English language coverage, but as a first stop for a more informed coverage of political currents inside Russia, I would recommend Mark Galeotti's blog and podcast. He's a bit of a smug Brit, but he's usually decent at separating what's hot air and what's relevant. If you have the time to listen to his backlog, you'll have a lot of your questions answered eventually. If you want I could give you a list of journalists and academics whom I found to be noteworthy commentators over the last year. Edit: This is happening in a couple of weeks, if you have time. https://www.sciencespo.fr/fr/evenements/inside-russia-regime-stability-and-the-dynamics-of-public-opinion Hannibal Rex fucked around with this message at 17:06 on Apr 10, 2023 |
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Apr 10, 2023 16:59
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https://twitter.com/DrRadchenko/status/1646789708284870657?t=Mzvd876wYsxqVFASTLxhig&s=19 A short thread on China-Russia relations that links to three articles and a podcast. I've found Radchenko to be very much worth paying attention to, so I'm taking the opportunity to promote him some more.
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Apr 14, 2023 21:52
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Saint Celestine posted:Are there any good reading/books out yet about this? RUSI puts out some very detailed and readable if tentative analysis. This one is probably the best introduction: https://rusi.org/explore-our-resear...ruary-july-2022
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Apr 18, 2023 10:35
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/evan-gershkovich-in-court-appeal-against-wsj-reporters-detention-rejected-2xbszrxm9quote:Margarita Simonyan, the head of the Kremlin-funded RT television channel, has suggested swapping Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, for Gershkovich, Kara-Murza, and Paul Whelan, a former US marine who is serving 16 years in Russia on hotly disputed espionage charges. I never thought I would agree with Simonyan on anything, but if they want their asset back that badly, it sounds like a good deal.
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Apr 18, 2023 21:07
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https://twitter.com/k_sonin/status/1648376529955717120?s=20 It's always heartening to see signs of civil disobedience in Russia. https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1648406182539788288?s=20 From a longer thread, but the 'Immortal Regiment' coming back to bite Putin in the rear end would be an interesting development. https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1648206963237330947?s=20 Good news, or bad news? Parts of the Russian military demonstrate they're still capable of rational decision making. https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Der-Mann-der-die-Ukrainer-nach-Hause-holt-article24060732.html And a good article in German about the work of Ukraine's POW exchange negotiator. quote:In contrast, Ukraine guarantees Russian prisoners secrecy about the circumstances of their surrender and the possibility of not returning to Russia. And although human rights violations occur in the handling of prisoners on the Ukrainian side as well, the desire to return to Russia is not particularly strong among many.
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Apr 18, 2023 23:10
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Libluini posted:By my count, this makes 2 of these extremely expensive and very new systems in Ukrainian hands, and zero in German hands as the German Bundeswehr couldn't fully introduce the system themselves yet. Our government coldly calculates the Ukrainian forces need them more than us, and since it takes like 3 months for each system to be manufactured, our entire production currently goes to defend Ukraine instead of to the Bundeswehr. I think IRIS-T was mentioned in the leaks as one of the Western systems for which the provided missiles had already run out. It's good that they're being provided, but the question is how fast missile production can and will be ramped up. https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/moerklagt/afsloering-russiske-spionskibe-forbereder-mulig-sabotage-mod There's been an in-depth investigation into Russian seafloor warfare by media in the Nordic countries, and today a three-part documentary will premiere. AFAIK, there's no English subtitles yet, so if any goons want to watch it and provide a summary, I'd appreciate it.
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Apr 19, 2023 11:38
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BabyFur Denny posted:And none of those two million eyeballs was able to find secret documents swirling around on the internet for over a year. They're so proud of themselves, they don't even care. They're so fat and satisfied, they can't imagine that someone like me would ever get inside their house, walk their floors, spit in their food, leak their documents. When Andor aired, I thought that explanation was a little too simplistic and hand-wavy.Turns out, it was perfectly on point.
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Apr 22, 2023 13:19
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https://twitter.com/bmilakovsky/status/1650598822647570447?s=20 https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/russia-forced-mobilisation-donetsk-luhansk-ukraine/ This is a good article and attendant twitter thread by an American aid worker who used to live and work in government-controlled Donbas.
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Apr 24, 2023 23:12
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https://verstka.media/kak-putin-pridumal-voynu A Russian investigative journalist's account of Putin's decision to go to war, with background on 2014 too. A bit more context in the tweets below: https://twitter.com/DrRadchenko/status/1650967102793064449?s=20
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Apr 26, 2023 11:47
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https://twitter.com/Jack_Watling/status/1651952472611516417?s=20 New RUSI report, on Russia's targeting of nuclear plants.
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Apr 28, 2023 15:37
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Paladinus posted:Has the drone model already been identified? https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1653747610124009473?s=20 Bendett will be reliable to check for verification.
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May 3, 2023 14:10
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It's oddly mesmerizing to watch the people I follow sort themselves into the "It was Ukraine" and "It was Russia" camps.
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May 3, 2023 17:01
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Ynglaur posted:Correction mine. The biggest problem with this video is the fireball. Military explosives don't do that: gasoline and petrol-based explosives do. Gasoline is great for engines because it releases energy relatively slowly compared to, say, high explosives, but it's less energy-dense. https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1653762654656249862?s=20 https://twitter.com/broe_jake/status/1653804139036676096?s=20 Do these two explosions look significantly different to you? Hannibal Rex fucked around with this message at 18:27 on May 3, 2023 |
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May 3, 2023 18:25
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Moon Slayer posted:The whole thing is very weird so I'm guessing it's going to be one of those wartime events that we never actually get a satisfactory explanation for. quote:The emergence of unidentified unmanned aerial vehicles at energy facilities or on Kremlin’s territory can only indicate the guerilla activities of local resistance forces. As you know, drones can be bought at any military store... I'm perfectly satisfied with that explanation.
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May 5, 2023 00:59
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CSM posted:Ukraine has performed multiple strikes on Russian territory just in the past days (bombing fuel depots). It's also not clear whether Russia has the capability of executing large scale terror bombings of Ukraine, or at least not without a large cost (not bombing actual military targets). We'll have to see that happen first to take it into consideration. I'm talking about Podolyak's reference to this: https://www.theguardian.com/news/defence-and-security-blog/2014/mar/06/ukraine-gross-violation-russian-troops quote:Russian president Vladimir Putin, at a press conference this week, refused to confirm they are Russian regulars and suggested they were spontaneous groups who could have acquired the uniforms from army surplus stores.
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May 5, 2023 01:47
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EmployeeOfTheMonth posted:Im waiting for Shoigu and Gerasimov to have their own theatrical setpieces in the dance about ammunition. This looked absolutely ridiculous like a cut-scene in a bad videogame between level 5 and 6. I think the most straightforward explanation for this is that Prigozhin is now more worried of getting sledgehammered by his own underlings that of getting defenestrated by Putin. Or he may even have cleared it with above, and this is just theater to get ahead of a Wagner mutiny.
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May 5, 2023 11:37
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Morrow posted:If you clean out the civilians, you also clear put partisans and observers reporting to the UA. Yeah, it's that. Also, now you can booby-trap and mine every village to hell and back.
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May 5, 2023 18:38
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:This is weird question but what would occur in Western Militaries if a commander or leader did what Prigozhin did where his sharing videos of the dead and he isn't getting the support he needs? They'd start their career at Fox News earlier than intended.
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May 6, 2023 10:33
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https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia-war-beyond-ukraines-offensive If you haven't been following Kofman's podcasts closely, this article is a detailed summary of what he's been saying the last few months. As usual, he's more cautious than some of the louder commentators, and points out the looming shortcomings in Western strategy.
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May 10, 2023 18:38
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buglord posted:Which podcast? The only ones I’m following with regards to the war is War on The Rocks and In Moscows Shadows. Can always use another. WotR is the main one, but he also has a members only one on their site. Geopolitics Decanted also has high quality guests on Ukraine, both Kofman and others. This one has Justin Bronk and Dara Massicot on Ukrainian air defense: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aH...3NzBmNDMz?ep=14 Olga Oliker is always insightful, usually focused on conflict management and diplomacy: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aH...xMmMzMjIz?ep=14 Jack Watling of RUSI comments infrequently and spread across different podcasts, but worth looking out for. https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aH...5YzJlMjk5?ep=14
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May 10, 2023 19:42
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The '99 air war against Serbia gets memory holed. IIRC Serbia was completely outmatched, but still managed to keep its air defense a threat in being.
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May 16, 2023 22:10
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https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/russias-new-nuclear-normalquote:The legitimization of the war by the Russian Orthodox Church is an extension of the years of ecclesiastical support for the Kremlin’s foreign policy gambits and nuclear assertiveness. The patriarch’s wartime sermons have transformed him into something like a national spiritual commissar. Prior to the war, the Kremlin actively portrayed itself as a faith-driven actor to enhance its coercive bargaining. Now, in war, the patriarch’s messianic and apocalyptic rhetoric, occasionally in unison with nuclear threats from the Kremlin, apparently assists Moscow in sending signals that line up with the “madman theory”—persuading adversaries that it is crazy enough to go to nuclear extremes to achieve its aims. The Russian public is not the target audience for this messaging. But inadvertently, the religious-military rhetoric has made nuclear employment more conceivable in the public’s consciousness. Good article, gets straight at the crux of the effects Russia's permanent nuclear posturing has on its society.
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May 22, 2023 23:34
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Ynglaur posted:My take on drone boats being used to directly attack surface vessels by ramming them is that they don't offer anything a torpedo or missile doesn't already do, except that it does it worse and probably doesn't cost meaningfully less. It feels like we're still in the biplane stage of this technology. Right now, it's Ukraine cobbling together Mad Max maritime VBIEDs. As you said yourself, I can definitely imagine a cheap drone boat that carries a single conventional torpedo and launches it remotely.
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May 24, 2023 22:15
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fatherboxx posted:Uncommon to have an intelligence guy in a such public position, but Ukraine has been writing the new playbook for doing the media game, so maybe it is worth it. Its gonna be some time before it gets clear if his command over HUR got tangible results or if it is mostly smoke. He might be laying the groundwork for a political career, assuming he'll live that long. There's few other reasons I can think of for an intelligence head to seek the limelight. Riling up the Russians, maybe, and drawing attention away from other people doing clandestine work.
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May 27, 2023 11:16
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Ynglaur posted:RUSI's report indicated that Russia has made several adaptations to Ukrainian deep strike capabilities such as HIMARS. Everything from displacing further back (Division headquarters are typically 90+km from the front) to ground-based air defenses targeting the incoming missiles to GPS spoofing electronic warfare assets redicing accuracy to emplacing high-value assets in concrete buildings. All of those adaptations have their own costs, of course, but Russian command and control has been fairly solid since last fall. There's a recent deep dive discussion about this and also the Ukrainian side. The focus is one lessons for the Indo-Pacific area, and it took place on Hawaii, in case you're wondering about the shirts and stage dressing. https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1662119049612984320?s=20
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May 27, 2023 11:27
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https://youtu.be/9HGQqPwbsyo Kofman lecture about the course of the war from a couple of weeks ago. It's about 35 minutes, the rest is Q&A. Nothing fundamentally new if you've been following his podcasts, but a decent way to catch up.
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May 31, 2023 13:22
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If you're listening to podcasts about the war at all, don't miss out on this one. Based on the recent RUSI report about Russian adaptions, but it goes into a lot more detail. https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-how-is-russia-adapting-its-tactics-in-ukraine/
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May 31, 2023 22:29
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https://svakulenko.substack.com/p/is-power-of-siberia-2-a-white-elephant?sd=pfquote:There might be a temptation to compare the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 to the construction of the original Brotherhood and follow-up Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline of the 1960s – 1980s and claim that this is a new page in the glorious history of the Russian gas industry and gas exports. The problem is though, that in the 1980s the prospects of Russian gas sales to Europe looked endless, and as history has shown there was indeed a lot of scope for market expansion. However, the Russian-Chinese gas trade most likely has an expiry date and might be over by 2060 due to the energy transition, and the switch to renewable energy away from fossil fuels, and this outlook leaves little upside to a fresh long-term gas export project. In case anyone wants to keep tabs on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project. There's inevitably going to be triumphalist claims, and this article will help you put those in context.
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Jun 1, 2023 13:30
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https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1664705297997352974?s=20 Hey guys, we're going to send out the press gangs again in 2023, hope you don't mind. Oops, forget you ever saw that.
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Jun 2, 2023 20:41
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https://zeitschrift-osteuropa.de/hefte/2023/1-2/der-kachovka-stausee/englishquote:Unfortunately, there is reason to believe that Russia's occupation forces deliberately lowered the water level of the Kakhovka reservoir in the first months of 2023 in order to blow up the dam in the event of certain developments in the war. It is to be feared that this moment would have come when Russia would be forced to completely withdraw its troops from the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions. The floodwaters in the areas on the left bank of the Dnipro River, which may not have been completely cleared at the time of the blast, would be less devastating with the current water level than in the event of the dam being destroyed when the lake is at full level. However, the consequences for the people of southeastern Ukraine and the entire Ukrainian economy would be catastrophic. Three power plants, which accounted for 30 percent of Ukraine's electricity production before Russia's invasion, could no longer operate. The existing system of supplying drinking water to some 400,000 people in the Ukrainian coastal area of the Sea of Azov, including the cities of Melitopol' and Berdjan'sk, would be destroyed. In addition, irrigated agriculture, which has been established for decades, could no longer continue. This would destroy the livelihoods of 280,000 to 420,000 people in the agricultural areas of southeastern Ukraine. Crimea would also return to the water emergency of 2014-2022. Welp, let's just leave 400k people without drinking water.
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Jun 6, 2023 10:26
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https://www.bt.dk/udland/svensk-ekspert-stod-bag-worst-case-model-om-ukrainsk-daemning-det-ser-meget-vaerrequote:Back in October 2022, the Swedish civil engineer Henrik Ölander-Hjalmarsson handed over a model to UNICEF.
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Jun 6, 2023 10:54
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https://twitter.com/Janet04745625/status/1665893010825945090?t=L9np3SQtrbMAIU6u6jtzbA&s=19 This was the earliest video I saw about the dam, but I didn't repost it last night because it wasn't clear what was going on. Does someone versed in Russian telegram know if a) it's genuinely from last night and b) can translate what the guy says?
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Jun 6, 2023 12:23
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https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1665959437981429762?t=GXrL5wM9pdupHMR_Jeb3Gg&s=19 This is a good thread by a NPR science reporter about the deteriorating situation at the dam even before last night. Also, the story about windows being shattered X km away is bunk.
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Jun 6, 2023 13:01
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Chalks posted:As in, you're disputing the literal state of some windows or are you denying the explosion happened? Because there's a bunch of evidence of that https://twitter.com/EerikMatero/status/1666017134135193601?t=5u9mvE_P2m1BqO8TOa60lw&s=19 Based on that thread. Keep in mind, the sound of the dam breaking could sound like an explosion to people primed to expect getting shelled.
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Jun 6, 2023 13:22
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