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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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Maera Sior
Jan 5, 2012

cinci zoo sniper posted:

idgi, but hopefully Russia stops giving me reasons to keep one of these open.

It was a joke about Lukashenko's recent "Totally not going to stay in power by changing the constitution" soundbite + the new thread.

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Maera Sior
Jan 5, 2012

The Associated Press has something on it that's accessible.

quote:

The U. S. ambassador to South Africa accused the country Thursday of providing weapons to Russia via a cargo ship that docked secretly at a naval base near the city of Cape Town for three days in December. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said an investigation was underway.
I'm not up on SA politics, does anyone have any sense of how this is likely to play out?

Maera Sior
Jan 5, 2012

I'm deeply confused. Can someone who has a better handle on Russian discourse explain whether this is meaningful or just more posturing?

Edit: To clarify, I'm talking about the most recent video from Prigozhin.

Maera Sior
Jan 5, 2012

Chalks posted:

Nobody really knows what's going on behind these statements, but there is a lot of speculation


Something exciting is going on, that's for sure - but at the moment it's a whole lot of talk and not a lot else.

Thanks, I'll try to stick with the sources that are mostly doing translations. I was used to thinking of that sort of rhetoric as empty noise, but it looks like someone might actually want to start something this time. (Who and what they want to start TBD.)

Maera Sior
Jan 5, 2012

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/us/politics/russian-general-prigozhin-rebellion.html

Did I miss this earlier or is it actually new? NYT, citing anonymous sources, says that Prigozhin had some senior military officials on his side (no surprise) but specifically points to Surovikin.

Maera Sior
Jan 5, 2012

OddObserver posted:

FWIW, Prigozhin claimed they did set up artillery (he is quoted as such in e.g. https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/26/europe/prigozhin-speaks-moscow-march-intl/index.html), but I am not aware of any independent confirmation.

Also:
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1673867772026146817
... I don't think Putin read the New York Times, folks.

I had the absolute worst location to drop that, glad you popped it at the top of the page.

Edit: If anyone has problems reading it, incognito got me in just fine.

Maera Sior
Jan 5, 2012

Discendo Vox posted:

It always made sense that Prigozhin had some degree of backing or collaborators, and Surovikin is certainly one of the more plausible ones, so not too surprising.

The more that comes out, the more I think that both sides misjudged who would support them (for a number of potential reasons) and neither of them had contingency plans. Hence the comedy of backpedaling.

Maera Sior
Jan 5, 2012

Mr. Apollo posted:

It looks like Russia is apply camouflage to its naval vessels in the Black Sea in a response to naval drone attacks.

http://www.hisutton.com/Russian-Navy-Deceptive-Camouflage.html



I can't imagine this actually being very useful when there's such thing as non-visual satellite data, but I'm not a drone pilot.

Maera Sior
Jan 5, 2012

Chalks posted:

If it is satellite camouflage designed to gently caress with AI it would be pretty novel.

This assumes satellites only work in the visual range (they do not).

Maera Sior
Jan 5, 2012

Chalks posted:

It also assumes that this camo is effective in the visual spectrum and that Ukraine are even using AI to analyze these images. The fog of war is always going to mean this sort of adaptation is based on assumptions about the enemy.

That doesn't mean this isn't an interesting attempt at real world battlefield AI camo - unless you've got another theory for why they're doing this? It doesn't seem like it would be very effective vs humans, or that a drone hitting one warship instead of another due to pilot misidentification would matter much at all.

They seem to be stuck in a "Throw everything at the wall and see what sticks" position, plus someone can point to it and say they did something.

Maera Sior
Jan 5, 2012

But they have plenty of satellite/plane data to know what's out there, and no new ships are arriving.

Do we have any navy experts here?

Maera Sior
Jan 5, 2012

Ynglaur posted:

At least for ground forces, the value of camoflauge had been re-learned in this war. It's not possible to be invisible or anything like that : something always has a sensor good morning enough to see you. But you can skew the odds a little bit,, or require your enemy to use a more valuable asset woth better sensors, or put enough doubt into what they're seeing to cause them to target a lesser, but more certain target.

I'm thinking this might be about tempting your enemy to use a less powerful/less advanced weapon that can be (theoretically) countered by the more powerful ships.

Maera Sior
Jan 5, 2012

WarpedLichen posted:

I feel like that's kind of a different thing though. I worked with a product that correlated SAR imagery and AIS tracks, and even that could be hard to make sense of on bad days.

I would imagine if you mix in people who deliberately don't want to be found or are actively trying to mislead and you have more issues.

My father worked on the stuff that would completely blow past clouds and any attempt at camouflage. I wish he was around so I could ask about this. (Yes, their biggest client was the DoD, but it was occasionally used by NASA and the USDA. He worked on the theory side of things.)

Maera Sior
Jan 5, 2012

Bar Ran Dun posted:

They have many systems that feed in. The capability that has impressed me is that they can spot relatively small oil spots on the surface at sea well away from shore and then rewind everything to determine the vessel.

Start going to harbor safety meetings just about anywhere usually they are public and you will get see in detail the data they can collect.

Not sure if you can get access to this review paper, but this is the sort of thing they're doing: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11042-022-13235-x

Maera Sior
Jan 5, 2012

Oracle posted:

There's also the fact that there's a lot of Ukranians in the US, and a surprising number of people can trace ancestry back to Ukraine (especially in cities like Chicago). Combine that with the fact that the US also has a lot of people from Poland (the most outside of Poland, in fact!) and of Polish descent (Poland's right next door to Ukraine, has quite the uh.. history with Russia/USSR, and has a vested, intense interest in what happens to Ukraine as they strongly suspect Poland would be next should Ukraine fall) and there's a fairly substantial subset of the population with skin in the game, as it were.

If you broaden it to former Soviet/Imperial Russian territories, you're going to find even more people whose knee-jerk response is to tell Russia to gently caress off. I may not know where my ancestors specifically came from, but I know they were there and why they fled.

Maera Sior
Jan 5, 2012

Enjoy posted:

or Ukrainian concentration camps?

I read this as a rhetorical device in response to Jon's posts, not as a genuine claim or concern.

Maera Sior
Jan 5, 2012

I think this is a very good time to remind people to watch Perun's videos on defense economics if they haven't already, specifically the ones that cover what countries are actually spending money on.

Maera Sior
Jan 5, 2012

Mr. Apollo posted:

An article on issues surrounding Leopard 2 repairs.

- Lots of parts for the 2A4 model are no longer produced and the global pool of available parts is rapidly shrinking due to the war.
- The German companies want to retain control of the IP or license it and say the Polish companies performing the repairs are charging too much
- The Polish companies companies say they have to charge as much as they are because the parts are rare and expensive
- Canada intends to put "significant money" into the Polish repair facilities to help the situation and to encourage other allies to do the same

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukraine-leopard-tanks-spare-parts-1.6953968

quote:

Bumar Labedy SA claims the German firms' refusal to share their IP prevents it from eliminating the backlog by making the parts itself. Gressel said the German firms have, in turn, accused the Polish firm of overcharging allies for the repairs.
I didn't see anything else related to accusations of overcharging. Are they implying that the German companies are refusing to send more parts because the Polish companies are overcharging? That's bizarre.

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Maera Sior
Jan 5, 2012

Mr. Apollo posted:

I think it’s more of a general complaint. Reading between the lines, it looks like the Polish companies say they have to charge a lot because they don’t have access to the IP and can only buy the parts from Germany instead of making some of them locally.

I got that, but the article says "in turn" like it's supposed to be a rebuttal. Unless there's something that was pulled from the article, that's no rebuttal at all.

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