(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Realistically just keeping what semiconductor equipment is already working supplied and maintained is going to be tricky once cut off from international suppliers (which are mostly in the US, EU and Japan). Combined with the timescale for developing and then ramping new capacity (years in ideal scenarios), essentially all semiconductors they can't already make are going to have been smuggled in from other countries.
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Mar 31, 2023 21:27
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WarpedLichen posted:https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1642165686788038656?cxt=HHwWgICx9bq_ksotAAAA The risk of a pincer attack is that you are extended into the enemy rear, so if you don't close off the pincer and reduce the pocket you are yourself at risk of being pocketed. A frontal push can be stopped without being encircled. That said, take commentary from people with good relationships to the Ukrainians with a grain of salt. If the Russians are making a critical mistake he's not going to tell them.
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Apr 1, 2023 18:26
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Willo567 posted:I really don't get the point of making claims like this. Isn't Crimea heavily defended, is it an actual realistic time frame? Both sides spew tons of propaganda to encourage their troops and spook the enemy. It is not generally realistic, nor should you be taking it seriously. saratoga fucked around with this message at 03:24 on Apr 6, 2023 |
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Apr 6, 2023 02:05
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Charlz Guybon posted:How can he tell if the tanks are good? Even if the condition on the outside looks fine, that doesn't tell us anything about the internal condition. He can't, it's just a count of externally intact tanks. However, over a timeframe of years it's reasonable to think that even units in relatively poor condition could be refurbished or remanufactured. Probably better to think of that not as a count of present capabilities but an upper bound on the best case long term potential. In reality a lot of those parts will probably be cannibalized to repair other tanks. Conversely they probably have some tanks closer to the front being repaired or refurbished that weren't counted.
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Apr 10, 2023 14:38
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SixFigureSandwich posted:My man I have news for you about the US Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court Since there's obviously been a crime the FBI can simply ask a judge for a warrant and take whatever they need. Boring I know but they probably already have logs of everyone who accessed any of those files and are working backwards through the ISPs now.
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Apr 12, 2023 19:36
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Willo567 posted:How come it's expected that it won't be as big of a gain as Kherson or Kharkiv was despite Ukraine now having western tanks? Kharkiv was a surprise attack on an barely-defended part of the line that the Russians had not anticipated. There is really no possibility of something like that now that the lines are so much shorter and better fortified. There are no longer any such soft spots left to attack.
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Apr 13, 2023 02:39
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:christ, maybe i'm just ignorant but this really does seem like one of the bloodiest conflicts of the past decades. i know regional wars in africa and middle east have had huge loss of life, but usually over many years of conflict. this is getting into the iran iraq war numbers in a quarter of the time It wasn't even the deadliest war of 2022. That was in Ethiopia.
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May 1, 2023 22:53
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Chalks posted:It's such a weird attack that it's very difficult for anyone to tell at this point. The strategic impotence of it points in both directions. They blew up the flag on top of the symbol of Russian government authority shortly before the Victory Day parade. If they do the parade at all, it's going to be the handful of modern tanks they can still scape together rolling in front of a bomb damaged building. This is obviously meant to emasculate Putin and underscore how badly he has mismanaged the country's defense in front of the Russian elite.
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May 3, 2023 17:49
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Chalks posted:Is there anything about how effective this is? Well they've been doing it for months and the city is still holding out, so...
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May 6, 2023 01:38
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Kraftwerk posted:How would this work exactly? It's not like the Russians are going to sign a peace treaty. They're gonna keep lobbing missiles at Ukraine long after their armies have been thrown out thus making it an "active" but low intensity conflict that makes putting NATO troops in harm's way a trigger for WW3. The US/EU are sitting on something like a couple hundred billion in Russian assets and reserves that were frozen in overseas banks. There is no short term need for that money, but they're going to want it back eventually, and that isn't going to happen without a formal agreement to end the fighting.
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May 10, 2023 02:35
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OddObserver posted:That money will near certainly go towards reparations, though it's far from covering for all the damage Russia did. The threat that this could happen is why they'll eventually choose to negotiate. So far though, the Russians are nominally due most of it back eventually.
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May 10, 2023 03:06
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Henrik Zetterberg posted:Kind of un-nerving that Russia was able to locate and target the Patriot in the first place. It's a radar-based system so not exactly subtle.
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May 13, 2023 03:04
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292 days by my count. Fun fact, if it takes 11 days more to clear the remaining blocks, then Bakhmut will have tied Verdun, often said to be the longest continuously fought battle in history.
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May 20, 2023 20:21
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Dick Ripple posted:Recon in force or advance until contact is unfortunately a neccessity. I would assume this is the intent of whomever is ordering such assaults, whether the Russians are doing so according to their doctrine is another question. This. Occasionally you'll see ground footage as well as drone footage, and there is usually a lot more going on than the drone let's on. https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/13nch25/side_by_side_drone_and_infantry_povs_from_the/ If you just watch the drone footage there are a couple tanks that explode in an empty field seemingly unsupported. If you watch the GoPro from the trenches, there's continuous rifle fire, incoming shells, etc from the units supporting those tanks, who obviously don't stand out in the open field.
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May 22, 2023 13:53
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Chalks posted:Until Russia pushes them out. It is weird how long Russia is taking to deal with it, but I'm sure they will eventually. It's the opposite side of Ukraine from where they've been preparing for an offensive. It must be an absolute nightmare to get forces all the way around the perimeter of a warzone with zero warning or preparation. Probably that is the point.
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May 23, 2023 14:50
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Chalks posted:Yeah but Russia won't have all their reserves in one place. This isn't all that far from the kharkiv front, there must be reserves there they can use. This isn't the front line, but it's not on the other side of the country either. I'm sure in the event of an attack on the lines local reserves already have plans for what they're supposed to do, enough fuel to get to the expected breakthrough, etc. Probably the issue here is that there aren't plans for turning around and going back through Russia nor sufficient stocks of fuel and supplies with those units, so someone has to figure out what can move, how to get supplies to them and then how to route them to where they need to go. That would be hard for a well organized army full of trained professional soldiers, and that isn't what Russia is working with. Probably units are trickling in, some are delayed waiting for supplies, etc so it is going to take a while to form up into something that can attack coherently.
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May 23, 2023 16:45
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Ynglaur posted:Yeah, they're basically cruise torpedoes. Dumb question but its been known for over 100 years now that torpedoes work best underwater where they're harder to shoot at and the damage will be more catastrophic. Why do these travel and then explode on surface?
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May 25, 2023 19:23
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steinrokkan posted:Because they are radio controlled and it's effectively impossible to make a radio controlled submerged torpedo Maybe I'm mistaken but I thought these are actual US-made devices, not improvised like aerial drones? Surely a US defense contractor could figure out how to stick up an antenna out of the water. Or even better, stick up an antenna until you get close (or submerge only during the attack), retract it, and then home in via sonar without guidance.
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May 25, 2023 19:36
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steinrokkan posted:I think they are improvised? At least I'm pretty sure the naval drones that tried to infiltrate Sevastopol were, and these I assume are the same? quote:As part of its additional $800 million military aid package the US announced last week, the Department of Defense said it will be providing Ukraine with drone boats – better known as uncrewed surface vessels (USV) – for use against attacking Russian Navy craft in the Black Sea. I assumed these were those weapons, although it would make more sense if these are improvised given the limitations.
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May 25, 2023 19:44
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mutata posted:The country being genocided made them uncomfortable with the wrong words in their propaganda anti-genocide video. Apparently this war is not a safe space.
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May 28, 2023 19:11
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:maybe the intent is in part to shape the media narrative in some way? More political pressure on Putin to pull back forces to defend Russia's borders rather than let his generals redeploy them to southern Ukraine in preparation for Ukrainian offensives. See also the cross border raids, minor counterattack around Bakhmut.
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May 30, 2023 19:03
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Moon Slayer posted:It's a real good listen, especially for those of us who don't have the time or inclination to read full RUSI analysis reports. The thing that jumped out at me was the discussion on the current way tanks are being used. Obviously we all know now that the initial hot takes of "tanks are over" was garbage, but I wonder how design is going to evolve when the lessons of this conflict start being applied. What I mean is how "modern" tanks aren't really going to be used for fire-and-maneuver or breaching lines, but more for indirect fire and infantry support. I'll bet that the next generation of "MBT's" is going to look a lot more like a combo SPA/IFV than what it is now. How tanks are used is context dependant. If you're planning on using them in a static conflict to supplement artillery then there are a lot of lessons here. Probably though people are not very interested in that since supplementing artillery only makes sense if your artillery and air power are failing in their roles. It would be better to address the weaknesses in those systems directly. As for tanks, probably active defense systems start to look a lot more attractive since now everyone is going to be making their own javelins.
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Jun 1, 2023 14:19
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fatherboxx posted:Good article about volunteer units established by state-owned companies The way they're mixing in more and more barely trained or equipped troops along not just quiet areas but really active areas of the front makes me wonder how well the army as a whole will be able to function under attack. Seems like a lot of those guys are going to melt away when a couple tanks roll towards their trench, or if they don't, they're not going to have the equipment to do much about it anyway. That is going to put even more strain on the limited number of professional troops still available to contain and counterattack.
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Jun 2, 2023 19:15
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Xiahou Dun posted:O a nice big audio-summary seems like just the thing to catch me up on it. And bonus, no one has to scroll by someone explaining things in the middle of a news thread. Russians bled themselves white the last 6 months for stupid reasons while the Ukrainians amassed a lot of modern western weapons and trained significant numbers of troops on them. They're going to make gains, but the range of outcomes could be anything from a grinding fight that achieves limited localized objectives to complete route of Russian forces. Depends how well you think they can field all these new weapons and how badly mauled/disheartened the Russian army is.
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Jun 2, 2023 21:11
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StumblyWumbly posted:There have been a lot of unrealistic peace plans proposed, but have any involved Russia paying reparations? There have been threats to keep the several hundred billion in Russian assets the western powers froze if Russia continues it's war. These would essentially be reparations, although they're aimed more at bringing Russia to the table, so it's not clear how serious they are.
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Jun 3, 2023 16:15
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Deteriorata posted:I don't think they actually intend to hold much land for very long. Their purposes are to 1) show people that Putin actually can't protect them and 2) they don't have to put up with Putin if they don't want to. While discrediting the Russian government is probably a big motivation especially for the Russian fighters, probably the main goal is to force Russia to defend an even longer front, drawing reserves out of Ukraine and opening the way for liberation of Ukrainian lands.
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Jun 4, 2023 18:42
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Boris Galerkin posted:Has there been no news other than what BBC reported? Ukrainians are in blackout. They also apparently are suppressing Russian communications: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1665725383327580160 So there is a lot of panicky Russian stuff on telegram but it is hard to tell what, if anything, is accurate. Most people are saying attacks so far have been preliminary.
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Jun 5, 2023 16:37
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jaete posted:In NATO & Ukraine news: Nato members may send troops to Ukraine, warns former alliance chief Sending in what would essentially be peacekeepers would be a lesser alternative to NATO membership, not a shortcut to membership.
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Jun 7, 2023 23:16
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People on internet shocked to learn that Russian propaganda says Russia doing great.
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Jun 9, 2023 13:33
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Charliegrs posted:The lovely thing about Ukraine losing things like Leopards and Bradley's is I don't think they really have that many. Like Russia has been losing tanks left and right but they had thousands to start off with. I think Ukraine had like 100ish Leopards? And probably isn't going to be getting many more. So any losses are really going to hurt. If they take the position a lot of those will be towed back and refit with new tracks. So they're really only losses if Russia pushes them back or at least hold the position long enough to get demolition crews or sustained artillery fire onto them.
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Jun 9, 2023 20:23
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Nenonen posted:Well, they're losses for this offensive. We don't know how damaged they are but modern tanks just take more to repair than hosing off the blood and patch welding the hole. Maybe if it's just a thrown track, but anything more takes precious time to fix. Lot of the losses are mines which will blow off a track but probably aren't going to make a hole that needs patching. That's why you see all those videos of the Ukrainians dropping grenades into t72 tanks with broken tracks. The mine isn't strong enough to punch through the armor on even older tanks, it just rips up the track enough that the vehicle is immobile. Stuff hit with larger weapons is a different story.
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Jun 9, 2023 21:16
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Nenonen posted:That's the thing, though. You leave a tank laying around where drones can see it, it will get hammered by artillery. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1667188759522164737?cxt=HHwWgoC-jf_VhaMuAAAA Allegedly one such tank recovered and retracked.
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Jun 9, 2023 21:38
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Deltasquid posted:A question re: modern fortifications, I feel like a lot of footage coming out of this war shows trenches that resemble moreso deep ditches than anything resembling bunkers or more connected trench systems. Is there a reason for that other than “shoddily and hastily thrown together at the frontline”? If Ukrainian forces push through a line like this tweet suggests: One of the things that I have found surprising is that even in year two of the war, and after seeing artillery and drone strikes destroy countless positions its exceptionally rare to have trenches with even basic sheet metal roofing. Even dugouts seem tiny and infrequent. It hasn't been clear to me if the relatively primitive trenchworks are a reflection of the untrained and unprepared soldiers in them or if it's that the actual intensity of fighting relative to the length of the front is so low most positions don't need anything more.
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Jun 11, 2023 02:42
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Bar Ran Dun posted:That’s not what makes it government the “Air Force Research Laboratory” is what does that. That's not any less ridiculous. The Air Force, as part of the larger DOD, funds a huge amount of basic scientific and development because Congress has for various reasons chosen them to administer a large fraction of the federal research budget. For example, they run one of (or maybe the?) largest breast cancer research program in the world because Congress mandated it. It would be a mistake to apply your logic and try to conclude they're weaponizing breast cancer or whatever simply because it's within the air force. You need to look at the actual program doing the research and see what it's purpose is, not just the overall DoD.
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Jun 18, 2023 14:21
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Bar Ran Dun posted:You’re ignoring the forest. You can't just say 'it doesn't matter that I misunderstood the evidence for my argument because I still think I'm right. Go figure out for me how I can prove it to you'. Well you can, but expect to be ignored.
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Jun 18, 2023 20:18
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:us mic is so mind bogglingly large we can apparently lose mid-ten figures in the couch cushions Most of this stuff getting handed over is from old Cold War stockpiles, things in storage waiting to be scrapped, etc so valuing it is going to be really hard. For example how do you value the ~500 M113s the US sent, some of which date back to almost the Vietnam war? The price when they were made in the 70s or 80s? The price the army would probably get for them today (as scrap or collectors items)? The zero dollars they'd get if they donated them to police departments? Some arcane depreciation formula that only the federal government uses? This whole process must be keeping an army of accountants busy trying to figure out the lowest possible value they can give to a lot of this junk. saratoga fucked around with this message at 01:54 on Jun 21, 2023 |
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Jun 21, 2023 01:52
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Bel Shazar posted:My guess is $0 cost for the equipment and then whatever the shipping cost is goes against the president's spend authority, with a discount recorded for the cost savings from lack of ongoing storage fees. There is generally really strict rules about writing off the value of things (to keep people from writing things off and then keeping them for themselves), so for most of this stuff they probably cannot do that. Not sure about the military, but usually things have to be valued according to some process.
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Jun 21, 2023 02:08
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WarpedLichen posted:https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jun-21-22 I read that the other way around. They've been desperate to avoid a second wave of mobilization given how disruptive the first one was, so they've found "volunteers" instead. I wouldn't read too much into the various conflicting (and possibly exaggerated) numbers presented to justify that decision. WarpedLichen posted:At least, it seems very counter intuitive to me that Putin's position has been strengthened by the war. Why? The war has given him license to lock up all opposition, further centralize his power and rollback much of civil society. I doubt it has made him many new friends but it has obviously allowed him to tighten his grip on power.
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Jun 23, 2023 16:29
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Kraftwerk posted:That’s the one I’m referring to. I'd say the fact that the Russians are still trotting around those images means that not much has happened since beyond a lot of artillery dueling and some probing attacks. Realistically it could be some time before they choose to actually commit to a main attack. They're limited by available forces but this is no urgent need to get the campaign over with soon, so it could last for months.
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Jun 25, 2023 00:08
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| # ¿ May 21, 2024 02:18 |
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D-Pad posted:Surely this strengthens western resolve to continue backing Ukraine and maybe even increasing aid? You don't pull back when your rival is teetering on the brink right? Like even if the counteroffensive doesn't go as well as everybody hoped the internal state of Russia we were all just witnessed too means you've got to keep pushing? Media is already crediting the Ukrainian counteroffensive with destabilizing Putin's regime, so this looks like a big win in terms of foreign support. Even if the Russians somehow managed to stop the offensive dead after this, I think they'd still be able to call it enough of a win.
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Jun 25, 2023 18:32
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