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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

https://twitter.com/the_ins_ru/status/1642557572749172737

Explosion in St Petersburg in a restraunt owned by Prigozhin, near his his HQ, famous "war correspondent" and ex-bank robber Vladlen Tatarsky was killed there at his talk event

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fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Some reports are saying that the bomb was planted in a quite big soldier bust that was gifted to him, which is straight up something from a Hitman mission

WarpedLichen posted:

I don't really know anything about the pro-Russian bloggers, is this a Strelkov type figure who is critical of the Russian MOD or some hard-right guy? Analogous to the attack on Dugin?

He was from the Prigozhin crew, so yes, of the ones that are allowed to criticize MOD. Dugina was also on the same payroll - so just the same I'd guess this is also a friendly fire operation.

fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 17:46 on Apr 2, 2023

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

adebisi lives posted:

It's pretty easy, just ask most reporters for western mainstream press between 2003 and 2008.

I dont recall NYT reporters posing with skulls of people they claimed to kill in combat or shooting guns themselves in Iraq at all

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Dick Ripple posted:

I would agree and hope that goes without saying, and I hope Ukrainian leadership knows that killing Russian civilians is not going to help their cause in the eyes of the West. I doubt the guy had any real security detail, so taking him out without harming others should not have been a problem, but someone obviously wanted to send a message.

I believe that if Ukrainian agents were capable of doing things like this in Moscow and St. Petersburg, they would have gone after more important targets.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Svaha posted:

Not much fanfare? Some of the bloodiest battles of wwII happened there.
8 months and 30,000 casualties (for the German offensive)
1 month and 85,000 casualties to take it back for the Russians.
Not trivial for what amounts to a relatively small area.

At the WW2 Eastern Front scale that's basically a skirmish

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Storkrasch posted:

Can't they take Glenn Greenwald too, just for good measure?

Russian state media already have a token gay person with awful views

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1646539983832989697

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Moon Slayer posted:

So, uh, who's in charge of this thread now? Is ... is it me?

I'm still here until Russian state decides to punish me for bad posting and draft (or rather imprison) my rear end

fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 18:20 on Apr 20, 2023

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Huge explosion in Belgorod (thats Russia for those who dont follow closely), without fatalities

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1649149352189784105

Russian Ministry of Defense hastily published that it was an accidential discharge from a Su-34 that was on route to Ukraine

https://twitter.com/den_kazansky/status/1649156245239070720

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Please pour a shot glass of Rizhsky Balsam for cinci's wellbeing and dont delve into goondrama further in this thread thank you

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

===NO MOD DRAMA PAST THIS POINT FIND ANOTHER PLACE FOR IT====

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Small White Dragon posted:

Is HIV that prevalent in Russia, is this just them jailing a bunch of LGB folk, or what?

My sibling in christ, it is 2023, HIV is well past the gay disease stereotype.
But yes it is insanely bad, Russia has been leading Europe in new cases for a long time, with government trying its best to ignore it or state that its just more decadent west propaganda

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/12/08/russia-dismisses-data-showing-worlds-5th-highest-hiv-infection-rate-a79636

Since drug-related crimes offer a steady supply of convicts, high number of HIV affected in prison is linked mostly to it - bad needles etc

fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 00:53 on Apr 22, 2023

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

The Belgorod own goal bombing story continues - second, unexploded bomb was discovered, 17 nearby apartment buildings are evacuated (around 3000 people) according to the governor of region

https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1649726112400912384
https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1649727401159532544

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Icon Of Sin posted:

As a PMC, are they covered by any protections at all? Or would designating them as a terrorist organization change that at all?

Yes but if they are intentionally kept as deniable assets (i.e. when specific soldiers are not listed in records even as volunteers), they may not get the chance for those protections and disappear. Luckily for them, Wagner soldiers (of course, primarily not the convicts) are used in POW exchanges a lot, and I think Prigozhin is just doing dumb PR for internal audience.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

I'm a little confused here... Why is okay for Russia to literally raze entire Ukrainian cities but they can't do strikes in Russian territory?

Probably dont want the optics of US weapons (or NATO-trained personnel) used in an attack that strikes non-military targets by mistake

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Ynglaur posted:

Tucker Carlson is out from Fox News, which hopefully reduces Russia's information operations in the US by some measurable amount.

Good opportunity for Solovyov to hire him as a replacement to Stas AiKakProsto and his communist confederate sidekick. Does Tucker enjoy being paid in potato scraps?

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

The figure for civilian casualties on Russian soil from Ukrainian strikes so far that I've seen recently is about 30 people. With that Russian fighter plane that rammed an apartment building in Yeisk on its own resulting in 16 dead civilians even Russian media is unable to whip up a rally for defense argument - the broad terror attack to win with the Ukrainian population at home would change that.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Yes it is, just a layer over old drone footage

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Phosphine posted:

Also isn't it, uh, rasputitsa? Rasputina appears to be an American band.

And I think the Ukrainian word is bezdorizhzia?

Bezdorozhye is also a Russian word meaning the same - place or situation without roads

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013


Since it is RIA, i am believing it once it lands on Oryx and not a minute earlier

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

I am going to say that all of the above is базированный кринж (not кринжовая база) and we better not delve into loanword madness further

HonorableTB posted:

On topic, the counteroffensive is going well by all measures I've seen on Telegram. OPSEC is extremely tight but many of the usual information channels are insinuating success in the little that's been put out so far, all the hint-hint wink-wink type things. I imagine we're going to hear some pretty interesting things in the coming days. Everywhere that's official, semi-official, and down to "we know this channel is a confirmed surrogate for X group" is putting out the same uniform OPSEC priority messaging

Havent seen any Z-scum on TG raise the alarm about hits on the positions which is usually an evidence and they cant keep mouths shut

fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 22:56 on Apr 25, 2023

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Deteriorata posted:

They've proved to be generally accurate for a long time. It's a war, no one has precise numbers. They're as good an estimate as anybody else's and a consistent benchmark.

No, they haven't, they state a completely ridiculous number of KIA that devalues it as a whole. Better to ignore it and leave as a morale-raising tool for Ukrainian public.

fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 15:47 on Apr 28, 2023

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

plogo posted:

The leaked FSB numbers were ~110,000 so I imagine the real number is in between.

US estimates from the leaked documents are 40-50k KIA
BBC/Mediazona confirmed open source headcount is at 20k (absolute base level due to methodology)

Dont know what are the "leaked FSB documents", sounds sensationalistic.

fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 17:41 on Apr 28, 2023

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Nenonen posted:

Wagner has also been forced to recruit from locals in its African operations. I guess it's only a matter of time before we see them in eastern Ukraine.

I doubt it, it is too expensive to transport them and it would be even harder to command the untrained recruits with a language barrier added.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Willo567 posted:

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1653131587226050569
I'm assuming Arestovich isn't reliable due to only being an ex-advisor and has no information on the counter offensive plans?

Arestovich is a known (entertaining) bullshit artist and was one even when he was an official and the account you are quoting is usually even worse

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

WarpedLichen posted:

I'm not plugged into Russian news sources, but my understanding is that even there are claims about successes like ammo dumps or barracks that really don't get any time on Western channels due to lack of corroborating evidence.

I personally figured that stuff was quietly being hit and degraded but kept quiet for the most part. Maybe there's clear accounting of each missile strike and what got hit that I'm not aware of somewhere?

Russia doesnt have video/photo sources of its own for hit confirmation unless it is killcams from Lancets and has been flinging so much bullshit that any Russian MOD reports on 1488 killed nationalists from a single strike are ignored. OSINTers usually report hits from indenpendent confirmations.

fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 21:50 on May 2, 2023

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Umm holy poo poo

https://twitter.com/ian_matveev/status/1653725051974189063?t=1HHrag3djEgDmZ6PHMnipA&s=19

Government press service officially acknowledges there was a drone strike on Kremlin

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

If they actually cancel a 9th May parade in Moscow as a result thats going to be insanely embarrassing

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Another video

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1653734693257314304?t=wHOF8sZhtBu4Dq_cX_6mpQ&s=19

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Drone fuel cant melt flagpoles

KingColliwog posted:

I have trouble believing that Ukrainian drone could actually hit the kremlin of all places and it also does absolutely nothing for Ukraine so it feels like a false flag to me.

But it does - Putin is insanely paranoid and at the very least it is going to force even more AA and EW systems to be concentrated in Moscow instead of frontline

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

notwithoutmyanus posted:

It's not exactly what I envisioned as far as drone strikes go. I thought at first this video would reference some serious Ukraine situation but it could have even been some anti war Russian.

This was not an offshelf commercial drone refit into combat one, antiwar russians dont have such resources

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Willo567 posted:

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1653743906851266560
Seriously I think he needs to stop Tweeting and trying to suggest that they did it

making GBS threads in media while winking agressively is literally Gerashchenko's job.

So what, Putin is going to invade Ukraine? :v: or start striking apartment buildings?

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Last time that they tried hitting SBU's HQ in Kyiv they hit a glass bridge in a nearby park and failed to destroy it.

Lethal aid from China? I'd file this under Clancychat. You've already seen the extent of China support.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Jasper Tin Neck posted:

Given how the flight path (red) is nowhere near the presidential palace (blue) it seems highly implausible this was some kind of assassination attempt.


My hunch is the Kremlin guard troops missing a memo about some sort of surveillance flight.

The round building from the video is Presidential Administration

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kremlin_Senate

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Keisari posted:

I'm finding the theory that they once again bombed themselves most convincing. Russia has a long tradition of bombing themselves to produce a pretext for something, and even in this war it is them who have pulled of one crazy stunt after another.

If Ukraine had the capability to strike Kremlin, they would have picked some other target that had actual military value, instead of a loving flag.

What exact tradition? In this war the only false flag attacks were the ones immediately prior to the invasion

https://twitter.com/Mortis_Banned/status/1654032263204438016?t=UpeMwKHts26JUSDM-LAH-g&s=19

If you say 1999 apartment bombings, that was 20 years ago

By the way, the strikes got whopping 4 minutes of airtime in evening news without even footage being shown - that is very unlike a rousing false flag to whip the population.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

radmonger posted:

False flag -> flag negation ~> destroy the flag.

If a world where 3 Sims -> Sims 3 apparently happened, it makes as much sense as any other theory.

"False flag" is not an idiom in Russian or Ukrainian

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Ubik_Lives posted:

I guess I'm alone in this theory, but I assumed it was a warning against messing with the Victory Day parade in Moscow. If Ukraine was thinking of sending over a drone to glitter bomb Russian soldiers blue and yellow, they know that Russia will take this as an assassination attempt against Putin and go nuts. It seemed to me like a message to Ukraine to not embarrass them, without the embarrassment of having to ask that.

Sorry, it seems you need to shave with occams razor here, this is some extreme 5th dimensional chess

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1654396697462599682?t=IK44lHRQk5dgjbaEAjGl6w&s=19

Regardless of the will to actually to anything described, this is an embarassing clown show for Russia

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

This be a little off topic for the thread but I'm interested in what happens to Russia. Places like St. Petersburg are pretty cosmopolitan with a lot young-ish (25-45 years olds) who are quite educated, spent time overseas including a lot of international business relations. Ever since the war, all of their efforts have been completely destroyed. It's super sad and I don't how on earth they are going to recover. Ian Bremmer did a big discussion on it -

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1653862482283311105?s=20

People who had the resources and were engaged in international business relations you described have already left

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

https://twitter.com/vofchekpan/status/1654413658296840194?t=Gx9qiNU9qsIc2kExUmjKuw&s=19

Guy on twitter says that his brigade managed to shoot down the fearsome Kinzhal missile from a Patriot. File this under "guy on twitter says" of course, but if true, I expect Ukrainian MOD to make a big deal out of it soon.

Here are photos, I'll let experts verify

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1654420929206800384?t=STu2HUDAI5Bxy9QLy9v9cA&s=19

fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 10:54 on May 5, 2023

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fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Willo567 posted:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1654500316883058689
Is this a sign that Russia is going to be retreating, or is it too early to tell?

Yeah, last two times it was announced a "gesture of goodwill" followed

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