War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War

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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

ummel posted:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1651119060900274177

The technical final boss. Seriously though this thing looks ridiculous. Comments seem to think it would be used in a ground to ground situation. Can a single one of these even be used as AA?

maybe against a helicopter moving slowly?

it is kind of fascinating how much aa is being repurposed into ground to ground artillery by both sides. aa cannons as bespoke howitzers and s300s as rocket artillery

# ¿ Apr 26, 2023 18:42

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# ¿ May 17, 2024 18:45

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

photo from the afp of a soldier in the bakhmut area. the random thing that stood out to me is it seems like he's been issued an m16 (not a gun guy though, so ready to be corrected)

i know that small arms have been included in previous aid packages, but for some reason i kind of just assumed that ukraine had more than enough aks in storage to equip their army for years. this makes me curious if they're issuing western small arms because that's so much of the training is happening in europe, or if they're now heavily reliant on western supplies for another class of weapon

# ¿ Apr 28, 2023 01:13

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

Shes Not Impressed posted:

An update on casualties from White House National Security Council:
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1653095034739122178?s=20

Also seeing more buzz about counteroffensives on Twitter today, including some attacks in Bakhmut that pushed Russians back.
Still just localized skirmishes, I think.

Here's an article Dana Lewis penned:
https://danalewis.substack.com/p/ukraine-counter-offensive?utm_source=direct&r=dvjpc&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Tl;dr: We're still waiting and seeing, but Lewis thinks Ukraine won't try to get bogged down in the urban environments, but try to cut off Russians from resupply with a longer view of defeating Russia. Of course, the pressure is on to have success with all the new western equipment.

christ, maybe i'm just ignorant but this really does seem like one of the bloodiest conflicts of the past decades. i know regional wars in africa and middle east have had huge loss of life, but usually over many years of conflict. this is getting into the iran iraq war numbers in a quarter of the time

# ¿ May 1, 2023 19:19

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

recently i had been thinking what a bad sign for russia that after 2 months of concentrated sustained effort they still haven't taken the entirety of bakhmut. i think it's too early to say whether this was some kind of victory for ukraine when it's not clear what their losses look like, but this continues to point to a stalemate being russia's best possible outcome from the war as long as the west can keep adequate supplies flowing. if ukraine does indeed launch an offensive and it has any level of operational success, one would think russia will be forced to reevaluate its strategy of digging in and holding out for a favorable diplomatic conclusion to the war

# ¿ May 1, 2023 20:25

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

saratoga posted:

It wasn't even the deadliest war of 2022. That was in Ethiopia.

i should qualify, i meant bloodiest in terms of combatant casualties, not direct violence or total disruption of vital infrastructure for non-combatants

# ¿ May 1, 2023 23:01

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

that's a pretty big claim, giving up a city dozens of mile behind the current lines, the loss of which would cause the russian's southern front an existential crisis. even if they were a very reputable account it's a claim that should be taken with a giant amount of salt

# ¿ May 6, 2023 22:51

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

prigozhin continues to issue contradictory statements about wagner's position in bahkmut

quote:

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin on Tuesday questioned the Russian state�s ability to protect the country from a Ukrainian counteroffensive, amid an escalating rift between the paramilitary group and the Kremlin�s security establishment.

The Russian state is �unable to defend the country,� Prigozhin said in a video posted on Telegram, adding that Russian generals were trying to �deceive� Putin.

�Today one of the units of the defense ministry ran away from one of our flanks � exposing the front,� the head of Wagner said, arguing the event should be recognized as �treason against the motherland.�

in the last hour or so prigozhin put out a statement saying the promised ammunition resupply was slashed by 90% and wagner would be retreating except that it was made clear that leaving the battlefield would mean the entire unit would be guilty of treason. frankly the whole situation is such a public farce it almost feels like it must be some kind of psyop to confuse the planning for any potential counter offensive, it's hard to believe that the russian general staff could be this publicly dysfunctional

the first israeli manufactured short range radars are being fielded by ukraine

these were purchased by a lithuanian ngo, but export approval was granted by the israeli government. given that these are an obvious counter to iranian drones, it suggests to me that despite mostly keeping the conflict at arms length, israel is not too happy about russia funding and field testing an iranian long range weapons platform

the us has announced a new $1.2 billion military aid package

quote:

The US has announced a $1.2 billion aid package to Ukraine intended to �bolster its air defenses� and �sustain its artillery ammunition needs,� with Ukraine�s counteroffensive against Russian forces looming.

The package includes 155mm artillery rounds, additional air defense systems and munitions, and drone ammunition, as well as equipment to help �integrate Western air defense launchers, missiles, and radars� with Ukraine�s existing systems.

First reported by The Associated Press, the package will fall under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which means it will be contracted and purchased from manufacturers instead of pulled directly from Defense Department stocks in a drawdown. Instead of supplying Ukraine with the weapons it currently needs, USAI packages are intended to create a medium- and long-term supply for Ukraine.

long term funding of artillery and air defense ammunition matches the needs listed in the leak. it's been a while since i've seen a call from ukraine for more armor, i wonder if it's because the short term need has been met, or if they've decided they've gotten all they've wrung out all the available supply

# ¿ May 9, 2023 20:08

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

Djarum posted:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/10/asia/japan-foreign-minister-hayashi-nato-intl-hnk

So that just dropped. Japan opening a �NATO liaison office� is surely going to make both Russia and more importantly China very unhappy.

articles 5 and 6 of the us-japan security treaty arguably already gives japan quasi-nato status in the ways that really matter, but it does again highlight that if the overarching goal was to isolate america and move the eu and east asia towards a more regional and multipolar outlook, it has almost certainly failed

# ¿ May 10, 2023 06:46

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

OddObserver posted:

Some perspective may be in order: there is a non-trivial chance they will finish conquest of the city in a week or two.

not saying you're wrong since i haven't paid much attention to the block by block progress in the city, but the sense i've gotten from wider reports is that the russian effort has noticeably diminished in the last week or two. have they continued to make meaningful progress regardless? just glancing at the isw maps, seems like the lines have remained pretty stationary over the last week

# ¿ May 10, 2023 19:03

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

Willo567 posted:

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1661375158693634054
So is the threat to reach Moscow a bluff? How big are the two groups?

i'm afraid they're not actually able to take moscow, but the good new is that i have this here one-of-a-kind shiny rock which is guaranteed to give ukraine victory before christmas. now most people wouldn't be willing to part with such a valuable item, but since i am a generous man, i'm ready to contribute it to the war effort for a modest fee. but this is a limited time offer so you'll have to act fast!

# ¿ May 24, 2023 18:35

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

i can't speak to what positive or negative impacts it might have on the overall war effort, but surely it must have been personally satisfying to say "ah, this is a home grown uprising we had nothing to do with. oh, where did the partisans with nato gear and ukrainian markings come from? clearly just russians citizens returning from vacation"

# ¿ May 24, 2023 18:55

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

maybe the intent is in part to shape the media narrative in some way? though the coy response about ukraine not being involved mostly just leaves a vacuum of speculation, so at best shifting the topic from breathless coverage of the ever impending counter offensive

# ¿ May 30, 2023 18:40

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

Tomn posted:

It's also worth noting that I think that Ukrainian high command is made of human beings under a great deal of stress, strong emotions, not enough sleep and too much coffee. It might very well be the case that there wasn't a very coherent strategic concept behind the attacks other than "It'd be nice to strike back against those fuckers in the Kremlin." Not everything is part of some brilliant 5D masterplan that will inevitably win the war, sometimes people just do things and their reasoning for doing so don't always stand up to scrutiny after the fact. This isn't to say that the Ukrainians don't think through their actions or anything, but there is a reason why the old saying goes that victory in war belongs not to the side that makes no mistakes, but rather to the side that makes the fewest mistakes.

I don't think the raid is senseless, mind you - I feel like it's quite likely that part of the motivation is to try and divert AA defenses from the frontlines to Moscow. But I do think it's also quite possible that "Do you want to make Putin personally poo poo his pants when you set off a loud bang over Moscow y/n" is a pretty tempting motivation for a Ukrainian general, regardless of any military value involved.

yeah, good point. i mean moscow had something like 35 suicide drones over kyiv last night in a continuing aerial siege that even at its most effective didn't do much to slow the ukrainian war effort

# ¿ May 30, 2023 19:05

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

if it was ukraine, hard to believe they're planning on a follow-up amphibious assault. wasn't the road on the dam one of the only remaining connections across the river, is ukraine supposed to be planning on flipping the battle to recapture kherson only starting with worse logistics? seems more likely someone is trying to cover a flank

# ¿ Jun 6, 2023 03:36

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1666115669149077504

the eu seems ready to go all in on this being a deliberate act by russia

either way, good to hear humanitarian relief seems like it will be expedited, apparently the entire region around the dam is going to be having issues with their drinking water supply for the foreseeable future

# ¿ Jun 6, 2023 19:00

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

us ambassador to the un robert woods stated before an emergency security council meeting that the us does not have any specific evidence pointing to either ukraine or russia for the deliberate destruction of the dam, but believe that it's highly likely to have been russia based on who has what to gain and the negative impacts on the ukrainian people

# ¿ Jun 6, 2023 22:51

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

some guardian reporting on the dam destruction

quote:

As Ukrainians along the Dnipro struggled to survive after the dam collapse, Ukraine�s ministry of agrarian policy and food predicted an even greater disaster next year, with global implications, as a result of the loss of the Kakhovka reservoir, one of the largest in Europe, and its impact on some of Ukraine�s most fertile regions.

The ministry said the loss of water in the reservoir and the four major canals it feeds would mean an almost complete loss of irrigation systems in the Kherson region, three-quarters lost in Zaporizhzhia, and one-third lost in Dnipropetrovsk.

�The destruction of the Kakhovskaya [dam] will mean that the fields in the south of Ukraine may turn into deserts as early as next year,� the ministry said in a statement.

so tens of thousands displaced and added to the refugee count of the war, disrupted drinking water for hundreds of the thousands, and even more reduction of agricultural output for years to come. the war continues to find new lows of insanity and pointlessness

the worst immediate humanitarian impacts from the flooding seem to be on the left bank where the russian rescue effort seems to be almost non-existant. aerial footage out of oleshky shows many people trapped in their attics, locals in the area say that the russian army has set up checkpoints around the town which are hampering any sort of civilian rescue effort.

# ¿ Jun 8, 2023 06:49

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

an ammonia pipeline from russia to ukraine near kharkiv has been damaged

quote:

A pipeline used to transport ammonia fertilizer from Russia via Ukraine that may be central to the future of the Black Sea grain deal has been damaged, according to both Kyiv and Moscow, potentially complicating talks around the accord.

Russia's defence ministry said a "Ukrainian sabotage group" had blown up a section of the pipeline on Monday night near the village of Masyutivka in Kharkiv region. The village is on the frontline between Russian and Ukrainian troops.

"As a result of this terrorist act, there were civilian casualties. They have been provided with necessary medical assistance," the Russian ministry said in a statement.

"At present ammonia residues are being blown out of the damaged sections of the pipeline from Ukrainian territory. There are no casualties among Russian servicemen."

Oleh Sinehubov, the governor of Ukraine's Kharkiv region gave a different version of events. He said in a statement posted on Telegram that Russian troops had shelled the pipeline.

Six Russian shells had landed near a pumping station near Masyutivka at around 5:45 p.m. (1445 GMT) on Tuesday, nearly 24 hours after Moscow alleged Ukraine had blown up the same pipeline, he said.

Reuters could not independently verify the Russian and Ukrainian assertions.

as noted, russia has loudly been complaining that it has not been able to export as much ammonia fertilizer as the grain deal is supposed to guarantee. if either side felt like trying to scuttle the deal, continuing to keep this pipeline down would be a good start

# ¿ Jun 8, 2023 06:56

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

quote:

Dam flood water uprooting and dispersing mines, Red Cross warns
Mines uprooted and dispersed by flood waters surging downstream from the breached Kakhovka dam across swathes of southern Ukraine could pose a grave danger to civilians for decades to come, the Red Cross said.

�In the past we knew where the hazards were. Now we don�t know. All we know is that they are somewhere downstream,� said Erik Tollefsen, head of the Weapon Contamination Unit at the International Committee of the Red Cross.

�It is with a certain horror that we look at the news coming out,� Reuters reports Tollefsen said in an audio clip, adding that the second world war mines found underwater in Denmark in 2015 were still active.

Besides anti-personnel mines, both sides have used vast amounts of artillery shells and anti-tank mines. The exact number of mines in Ukraine is unclear, said Tollefsen. �We just know the numbers are massive,� said Tollefsen.

Tollefsen said the issue with mines was not necessarily the nominal number of mines but where they were laid � especially in a heavily agricultural country such as Ukraine.

i knew this was a a concern, but i had naively hoped that being submerged for several days would render uxo inert. apparently not

# ¿ Jun 8, 2023 19:18

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

quote:

The cooling pond at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine is in danger of collapse as a result of the destruction of the Kakhovka dam and the draining of its reservoir, according to a French nuclear safety organisation.

Without the reservoir on the other side to counteract it, the internal pressure of the water in the cooling pool could breach the dike around it, a report by the Paris-based Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) said.

Officials at the Ukrainian nuclear energy corporation, Energoatom, said that any collapse in the dike around the cooling pond would be partial even in a worst case scenario and there would still be sufficient water to keep reactor cores and spent fuel cool, but a loss of the cooling pool would dramatically increase safety concerns over the plant.

Since the collapse of the Kakhovka dam on Tuesday, for which Ukraine, the UN, EU and other world leaders are holding Russia responsible, its reservoir has been draining into the Dnipro river and the Black Sea beyond, and will soon drop below the water intakes used to pump water into an array of spray ponds used to cool the reactor cores.

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Mariano Grossi said:

It is vital that this cooling pond remains intact. Nothing must be done to potentially undermine its integrity.

Karine Herviou, the IRSN�s deputy director general for nuclear safety, said that because all six reactors at the Zaporizhzhia plant had been shut down some months ago as a result of fighting in the area, the plant�s cooling needs are limited and could be met by other means.

�If the dyke is destroyed as a result of the water pressure, there are other means to replenish the spray ponds, like pump trucks bringing water from the Dnipro or other water basin located nearby,� Herviou told the Guardian.

The president of Energoatom, Petro Kotin, said today that the current water supply at Zaporizhzhia is enough �to keep the nuclear power plant in a safe mode of operation� but he warned of the threat of Russian sabotage.

�The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is heavily mined - both the interior and the access roads to it,� he said. �We currently have no information about whether the Russians have mined the plant�s equipment. This will become known after the plant is liberated.�

continuing pressure on safe operation of the nuclear plant. the more introduced points of friction, the greater the chance of something going sideways

# ¿ Jun 8, 2023 19:40

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

Hannibal Rex posted:

https://twitter.com/gbrumfiel/status/1666884691234807817?s=20

Looks like that particular speculation can be put to rest.

i did note this caveat, but still seems pretty strong evidence that this was an intentional act

quote:

There is still uncertainty. The seismic arrays can't locate the blast to closer than within 20-30 kilometers (12-19 miles) of the dam. But Oye says explosions in this particular part of Ukraine are rarely seen, and so a blast due to something else would be an unusual coincidence.

# ¿ Jun 8, 2023 21:18

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

some stories from the day i found personally interesting

quote:

Sweden will allow Nato to base troops on its territory even before it formally joins the defence alliance, the prime minister and defence minister said on Friday.

�The government has decided that the Swedish armed forces may undertake preparations with Nato and Nato countries to enable future joint operations,� the prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, and the defence minister, P�l Jonson, said.

�The preparations may consist of temporary basing of foreign equipment and personnel on Swedish territory. The decision sends a clear signal to Russia and strengthens Sweden�s defence,� Reuters reports they said in an opinion piece in the daily Dagens Nyheter.

Sweden applied last year to join Nato as a result of Russia�s invasion of Ukraine. Objections from Turkey and Hungary have delayed the bid and Sweden now hopes to join by a Nato summit in Lithuania next month. Volodymyr Zelenskiy is expected to join the summit in person.

quote:

Ukraine�s gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 10.5% in the first quarter of the year compared with the same period a year ago, the economy ministry said on Friday.

In a statement, the ministry said the fall was less than it had initially expected, indicating the economy was adapting to events even after Russia�s invasion more quickly than expected.

Ukraine�s economy shrank by about one-third last year after the full-scale Russian invasion.

Yulia Svyrydenko, who serves as first deputy prime minister and economy minister, said:

The data indicate that the Ukrainian economy is adapting and recovering at a faster pace than was previously forecast.

She said the government continued to focus on stabilising the situation in the energy sector and helping solve logistics problems for Ukrainian exports, Reuters reports.

The ministry said it had initially expected GDP to fall by 14.1% in the first quarter of 2023.

the ukrainian government is putting an upbeat spin on it, but hard to see it as anything but another reminder of the compounding long term damage this war is causing with every passing day. no matter how the chips fall, i really hope there is a concerted push for redevelopment aid

quote:

A grainy black-and-white gunsight video Russia released this week to bolster a claim its military blew up some of Ukraine�s most fearsome tanks actually documented the destruction of a tractor, according to a visual analysis by the Associated Press.

The Russian ministry of defence posted a video Tuesday on the social media network Telegram with text saying it showed �footage of the destruction of foreign armored vehicles, including Leopard tanks�.

The video was shown extensively by Russian state-controlled broadcasters and news sites, which said it was recorded from the thermal imaging system of a KA-52 Alligator attack helicopter. Several black silhouettes of vehicles can be seen, before the helicopter launches a guided missile that strikes one, causing it to explode.

The visual analysis by the AP shows that the vehicles seen in the video appear to be large pieces of stationary farm machinery parked in a field, specifically a self-propelled sprayer and two combines used to harvest corn and wheat.

The vehicle struck by the Russian missile has four large wheels and sits high off the ground. Leopard 2 tanks are low slung and have treads, like a bulldozer.

anecdotes are in no way indicative of the situation on the ground, but they can be funny

quote:

The New York Times is reporting that a senior Biden administration official has said that US spy satellites detected an explosion at the Kakhovka dam just before it collapsed.

It writes:

The official said that satellites equipped with infrared sensors detected a heat signature consistent with a major explosion just before the dam collapsed.

American intelligence analysts suspect Russia was behind the dam�s destruction � but he added that US spy agencies still do not have any solid evidence about who was responsible.

The administration official did not rule out the possibility that prior damage to the dam or mounting water pressure might have contributed to the collapse.

Experts had cautioned earlier this week that the available evidence was very limited, but they said that a blast in an enclosed space, with all of its energy applied against the structure around it, would do the most damage. An external detonation by a bomb or missile would exert only a fraction of its force against the dam, and would require an explosive many times larger to achieve a similar effect.

more evidence accumulates that the destruction of the dam was intentional, and done by someone who controlled the interior spaces of the dam

quote:

The White House said on Friday that Russia appeared to be deepening its cooperation with Iran in �full-scale defence partnership� and had received hundreds of one-way attack drones that it is using to strike Ukraine.

Citing newly declassified information, the White House said the drones or uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) were built in Iran, shipped across the Caspian Sea and then used by Russian forces against Ukraine, Reuters reports.

The White House spokesperson John Kirby said in a statement:

Russia has been using Iranian UAVs in recent weeks to strike Kyiv and terrorise the Ukrainian population, and the Russia-Iran military partnership appears to be deepening.

We are also concerned that Russia is working with Iran to produce Iranian UAVs from inside Russia.

Kirby said the US had information that Russia was receiving materials from Iran required to build a drone manufacturing plant that could be fully operational early next year.

He added:

We are releasing satellite imagery of the planned location of this UAV manufacturing plant in Russia�s Alabuga special economic zone.

Russia has been offering Iran unprecedented defense cooperation, including on missiles, electronics, and air defense.

This is a full-scale defence partnership that is harmful to Ukraine, to Iran�s neighbors, and to the international community. We are continuing to use all the tools at our disposal to expose and disrupt these activities including by sharing this with the public and we are prepared to do more.

Kirby said the transfers of drones constituted a violation of UN rules and the US would seek to hold the two countries accountable, imposing sections if necessary.

i imagine israel's defense community aren't particularly happy with the thought of even more technology transfer between russia and iran

quote:

Hungary said on Friday it had received a group of Ukrainian prisoners of war from Russia, a release that Ukraine welcomed while expressing concern that it had not been informed.

The PoW were from the western part of Ukraine that borders Hungary, according to both the Russian Orthodox church, which said it had assisted in the release, and Hungarian deputy prime minister Zsolt Semjen.

A post on Semjen�s official Facebook page said:

This is my human and patriotic duty � We have brought back from Moscow 11 prisoners of war from Transcarpathia.

Ukraine has said it had not been informed about the prisoners� release. The foreign ministry said it had asked Hungary�s representative in Ukraine to grant immediate access to them.

this reads like some dubious hungarian ultra-nationalism. "transcarpathia"? if orban starts refering to ruthenia, i'm going to be very suspicious

# ¿ Jun 9, 2023 19:23

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

Nenonen posted:

Thanks for these, GoJM! I saw that Ka-52 video yesterday and it's definitely something. I'm sure if I was somehow an attack helicopter pilot/gunner in a hot conflict where I could be shot down any second, my brain too wouldn't work straight and I would fire missiles at anything that even remotely resembled a legit target so I could return home.

But someone had to watch and edit and publish those videos afterwards in a safe office environment, and didn't notice anything off...

yeah, combat aviators have had understandable problems determining if and what they destroyed since the inception of the role, but triumphantly publishing the guncam footage is i guess indicative of the "flood the field" mentality of modern russian propaganda

for me the funniest part is the ap fact checker having to come up with fancier language for "uh, that's a tractor"

# ¿ Jun 9, 2023 20:26

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

dumby posted:

y'all saying these are tractors?
https://t.me/Slavyangrad/49966

would it make you feel better if i said yes?

# ¿ Jun 9, 2023 23:04

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

does anyone have a link to a good explainer on local objectives on the southern front. obviously something like melitopol is the big operational objective, but i don't really have much of a sense of what ukraine might be trying to grind towards in their immediate front

# ¿ Jun 9, 2023 23:29

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

the talk of f-16s from western leaders is getting more and more frequent and less tentative. it seems to be a question of when and how many, not if. like the abrams, any deliveries would be too late to affect the current offensive, and there are questions about how much impact old f-16s will have on the overall situation

# ¿ Jun 10, 2023 02:49

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

with a rebel yell she QQd posted:

According to this the Ukrainian POWs from Transcarpathia that were brought to Hungary "with the help of the Russian orthodox church" are going to do a press conference where they will tell how they have been forcibly conscripted, were forced to fight in terrible conditions and the Hungarian government and the Russian orthodox church saved them and gave them back their freedom (from Ukraine).

The moment this info came out, the Deputy Prime Minister of Hungary started praising the Russian Orthodox church and saying this is their gesture of good will towards Hungary.

gently caress my country

thanks for the update, this seems like it's shaping up to be a wild episode. one gets the sense that orban wouldn't terribly mind if russia had just easily set the precedent that you can invade your neighbors over fever dream irredentists histories

# ¿ Jun 10, 2023 20:17

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

if true i guess we'll see how well the defense in depth has actually been constructed

# ¿ Jun 10, 2023 23:13

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

russian troops fired on an evacuation boat in kherson, killing 3 and wounding 23

quote:

Governor Oleksandr Prokudin earlier reported that the people were being evacuated from the Russian-occupied east bank back to the Ukrainian controlled side of the Dnipro River when the attack occurred.

reminds me of the earlier days when civilians were trapped in the russian sieges and red cross convoys kept being disrupted

# ¿ Jun 11, 2023 20:26

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

WarpedLichen posted:

Economist article on air defense in Kyiv which is a good read:
https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/06/13/how-kyiv-fended-off-a-russian-missile-blitz-in-may

You know, what won't they lie about?

the whole thing is an interesting read, but this part really caught my eye

quote:

Hesitant Western leaders explained their initial reluctance to supply Ukraine with powerful air-defence systems by citing the long training programmes they would require. The reality has been somewhat different. Vyacheslav trained on the Patriots in Oklahoma and Poland for three and a half months instead of the regular six. Denys Smazhny, a training co-ordinator for iris-t and nasams, suggests even that was too long. There was nothing exceptionally difficult in the largely automated Western systems, he contends. An iris-t system was �far less complicated� than the Buk system he used to operate: �It�s like switching from a calculator to a MacBook Pro. The Western batteries basically do the work for you.�

this gibes with a lot of the stuff i saw when the moskva was sunk, user friendliness seems to generally be a higher priority in western platforms

# ¿ Jun 14, 2023 23:13

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

i'm not paying too much attention to russia moving tactical nukes in to belarus, but this seems like a wild messaging gap between the two parties

quote:

The Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, says he won�t hesitate to use Russian tactical nuclear weapons if faced with an act of aggression.

Lukashenko�s comment contradicts earlier statements by the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, who has said that nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus would remain exclusively under the control of Moscow.

On Tuesday, Lukashenko said �everything is ready� for the Russian nuclear weapons� deployment, adding that �it could take just a few days for us to get what we had asked for and even a bit more�.

Asked later by a Russian state TV host whether Belarus had already received some of the weapons, Lukashenko responded: �Not all of them, little by little.�

He appeared to confirm that his government had taken possession of some weapons from Russia and added that they were three times more powerful than the atomic bombs dropped on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

God forbid I have to make a decision to use those weapons today, but there would be no hesitation if we face an aggression.

But in a later media appearance on Russian TV on Tuesday, he clarified he would consult with Putin before using any of the weapons.

Listen, if a war starts, do you think I will look around? I pick up the phone, and wherever he is, he picks it up. If he calls, I pick it up any time. It�s no problem at all to coordinate launching a strike.

Russian officials had no immediate comment on Lukashenko�s remarks.

� AP

your nukes, my nukes, what's the difference?

# ¿ Jun 15, 2023 01:17

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

2022 european defense spending tops post-cold war era

quote:

Defence spending in western and central Europe has surpassed that of the last year of the cold war, an annual report has found, as military expenditure across the world hit an all-time high of $2.24tn (�1.8tn) last year.

The outbreak of war in Ukraine has triggered the steepest increase in military expenditure in Europe in three decades, according to the Stockholm International Peace Institute (Sipri).

The thinktank reports that spending by central and western European states reached $345bn in 2022, a sum that in real terms surpasses that of 1989, the last year of the cold war. Their defence expenditure is 30% higher than a decade ago.

Germany was among the nations breaking with the norms of the recent past. The Zeitenwende or turning point that the country�s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, announced last year ushered in its biggest rearmament since the second world war.

Germany�s military budget was the seventh largest in the world last year behind the US, China, Russia, India, Saudi Arabia and the UK, and further huge increases in expenditure are planned.

calls to mind eisenhower's chance for peace speech, "Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed."

who knows how history will turn out, but boy if it doesn't seem like the early 21st century will go down as the era of missed opportunities

# ¿ Jun 15, 2023 01:28

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

the stance from anonymous western officials on the current state of the offensive matches the general tone of the thread. so either folks here are good at analysis, or we're huffing the same farts

quote:

Ukraine is taking significant casualties and making slow progress towards the Russian main line of defence, western officials have admitted in one of the west�s first assessments of the Ukrainian counteroffensive launched on 4 June.

The officials� sombre tone was clearly designed to lower expectations of a transformative breakthrough. However they nevertheless insisted the counteroffensive was �going in the right direction� and the losses were not unexpected.

They said the counteroffensive was still in its early days and involved a form of warfare not seen in decades as Ukraine forces are forced to build single lanes of armoured vehicles through mines heading to main Russian defences that in some cases may be still as far as 20km away.

�The vulnerability of the classic single lanes through the minefields make the Ukrainian armoury very vulnerable to attack,� the officials said. The officials denied Ukraine had lost as many as 120 armoured vehicles � a figure touted by Moscow.

One official said: �The Russian manoeuvre and defence approach is proving challenging for the Ukraine and costly to attacking forces hence the advance at the moment is slow�.

The officials suggested there is likely to be �grinding costly warfare likely for many months to come. This is incredibly difficult. They are going against a well-prepared line that the Russians have had months to prepare. Russia has generally put up a good defence from their well-prepared positions and falling back to tactical lines. Whilst they are inflicting casualties on the Russians they are not significant because the Russians are choosing the time to withdraw in a manner similar to the way the Ukrainians defended themselves against Russian vehicles.

�The idea that the Russians were just going to melt away and the Ukrainians were going to drive straight through their defensive line was in people�s wildest dreams.

�In this conflict the advantage has always been with the defender�.

The officials said it may not be clear for as long as three months whether the offensive could be classified as a success.

Most of the vehicles that have been damaged have been hit by mines. As the Ukrainians advance they are also more exposed to drone assaults.

The officials played down suggestions that this assault was likely to give Ukraine a tactical advantage as early as September, and so give it space to reopen talks with Vladimir Putin. �We are a long way away from Ukraine being in a position to reopen negotiations�, the officials said.

The slow progress is likely to place greater pressure on the west to signal to Putin that it is prepared for a long haul, and will not treat the counteroffensive as Ukraine�s one shot at reclaiming its territory. Ukraine has long feared support may decline in the west if the supply of western arms does not produce early tangible results.

Western officials admitted that western-supplied jets may not be available in the short term, even if training of Ukrainian pilots is now underway.

The officials also suggested Putin might have taken a truth serum before meeting military correspondents where he said Russia was suffering severe tank losses and suffering problems with its military industrial base.

Even though there was still a huge amount of confusion about exact Russian deployment, the officials said the vast majority of Russian forces are now committed to positions on the line partly due to the sheer size of the line that has to be defended. That gave Russia little room for further manoeuvre to deploy reinforcements if a point in the line became vulnerable.

By contrast Ukraine was holding back some of its heaviest armoury, including Challenger tanks.

# ¿ Jun 15, 2023 01:32

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

Willo567 posted:

Isn't Lukashenko full of poo poo most of the time?

i'm sure lukashenko isn't going to have his finger on the button, no. but i find it amusing that he straight up says he will

# ¿ Jun 15, 2023 05:24

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

quote:

Norway and Denmark have agreed to donate an additional 9,000 rounds of artillery to Ukraine.

Norway will send shells and Denmark fuses and propellant charges, the Norwegian government announced.

The Norwegian defence minister, Bj�rn Arild Gram, said:

Ukraine has an urgent need for artillery ammunition. We have therefore decided to join forces with Denmark for a new donation, so that Ukraine receives the ammunition as quickly as possible.

It is important that we continue to stand together in demonstrating our support of Ukraine. Norway will continue to support Ukraine against the Russian invasion forces as long as it is needed.

The acting Danish defence minister, Troels Lund Poulsen, said Denmark would additionally donate 1,500 complete artillery rounds and 500 shells.

every little bit helps, but if i remember correctly this is like half a days worth of ammunition when the ukrainians are trying to conserve ammo. on the same note:

quote:

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Japan is in talks to provide artillery shells to the US to bolster stocks for Ukraine�s counteroffensive against Russia.

To date, Japan has only provided non-lethal aid to Ukraine.

The report claims that Tokyo is considering supplying 155mm artillery shells �under a 2016 agreement that allows the Japan and the US to share ammunition as part of their longstanding security alliance.�

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin held talks earlier this month in Tokyo with Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada. After the meeting, Austin praised Japan for the nonlethal military support it has given Ukraine and said additional assistance would be welcome.

In March, the EU�s most senior diplomat warned that there would be �difficulties� if western countries failed to reach a deal to replenish Ukraine�s dwindling stocks of ammunition.

i only remember japan previously discussing supplying tnt for shell manufacturing, so this seems like an escalation on their part

also i missed this story over the weekend. i wonder how asset seizure works on an aircraft that doesn't have western technical support. seems hard to auction off a plane no one can service

quote:

Russia�s foreign ministry said on Thursday that it had summoned a Canadian diplomat in Moscow in protest over the confiscation of an Antonov plane in Toronto, and warned that Russian-Canadian relations were on the �verge of being severed�.

Canada on Saturday ordered the seizure of a Russian-registered Antonov-124 cargo plane at Toronto�s airport, its first such asset seizure aimed at putting pressure on Moscow over the Ukraine invasion, Reuters reports.

Russia told Brian Ebel, the deputy head of Canada�s embassy in Moscow, that it viewed the plane seizure as �cynical theft�, according to a statement from the foreign ministry.

In a statement, the Russian ministry said:

[Canada�s�] Russophobic policy will entail the most serious repercussions for Russian-Canadian relations, which are on the verge of being severed through the fault of the Trudeau administration.

The Canadian foreign ministry did not have an immediate comment.

Canada announced the aircraft seizure while the prime minister, Justin Trudeau, was in Kyiv on Saturday, where he announced $500m (�392m) in military aid for Ukraine.

# ¿ Jun 15, 2023 19:41

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

Nenonen posted:

Antonov is a Ukrainian company, they will probably just offer it to Ukraine.

of course it is, i completely forgot all the damage their infrastructure suffered in the opening days of the war

# ¿ Jun 15, 2023 19:50

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

a new development in what i find to be the utterly bizarre saga of the 11 pows released into hungarian custody

quote:

Kyiv repatriated three Ukrainian prisoners of war from Hungary after a group of POWs was transferred there from Russia without coordination with Kyiv, the foreign ministry said on Tuesday according to Reuters.

Hungary, which under Prime Minister Viktor Orban has forged strong political and economic ties with Moscow, said on June 9 that Budapest had received a group of 11 Ukrainian prisoners of war from Russia.

�The Embassy of Ukraine in Budapest managed to bring back three Ukrainian prisoners of war from Hungary,� Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesperson Oleg Nikolenko wrote on his Facebook page.

Nikolenko said they were already back on Ukrainian soil and were receiving the support they needed.

He said Ukrainian diplomats and other relevant Ukrainian authorities were working to try to bring back the remaining prisoners of war.

so at least some of the prisoners were willing to be repatriated. really not clear to me what the point of this stunt is

# ¿ Jun 20, 2023 18:48

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

us mic is so mind bogglingly large we can apparently lose mid-ten figures in the couch cushions

quote:

The Pentagon announced Tuesday that the accounting error revealed last month was significantly more than previously stated and aid provided to Ukraine was overvalued by $6.2 billion rather than $3 billion.

The accounting error includes fiscal years 2022 and 2023 and occurred because �in a significant number of cases,� when the US transferred weaponry, military officials counted the value of replacing the weapon instead of the value of the actual weapon, deputy Pentagon press secretary Sabrina Singh explained at a news briefing.

That process drove up the cost of each new aid package � because new weaponry costs more than old weaponry � and resulted in the false assumption that more of the funding had been used.

�In a significant number of cases, services used replacement costs rather than net book value, thereby overestimating the value of the equipment drawn down from US stocks and provided to Ukraine,� Singh said.

The final calculation of the accounting error is far higher than the Pentagon previously estimated in May, when it first revealed the miscalculation as $3 billion.

�We have confirmed that for FY23, the final calculation is $3.6 billion, and for FY22 it is $2.6 billion, for a combined total of $6.2 billion,� Singh said. �These valuation errors in no way limit or restricted the size of any of our PDAs or impacted the provision of support to Ukraine,� she added.

The extra $6.2 billion is likely to mitigate the need for Congress to pass an additional assistance package before the end of the fiscal year in September.

what do you know, right as congress really seems set to deadlock for the near future. complete shot in the dark, but my suspicion is that military procurement administrators and movie studio accountants could have a lively conversation with each other

# ¿ Jun 20, 2023 23:00

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

SirFozzie posted:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...76be19be2&ei=18

So, apparently the new thing in Russian Warfare isn't tanks OR drones, it's Tanks AND Drones! (as in remote piloted tank)

I really gotta wonder what depths the Russian tactical folks are facing in the counter offensive. What does it take to get to "take an old tank, refit it to be piloted remotely, fill it with explosives and then send it rolling at the opposition, hoping it gets through the mindfield or even someone with a RPG to blow up?"

ah, so they did learn something from the syrian civil war

# ¿ Jun 21, 2023 00:10

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# ¿ May 17, 2024 18:45

GhostofJohnMuir: Aug 14, 2014; anime is not good

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

I know it's not news on the big scale but on a lighter note!- my wife's best friend's brother who lost his leg fighting for Ukraine is up to being able to sprint on a new prosthetic. Hell yeah. Not that long ago docs didn't know if he could ever even walk again.

i guess if one good thing came out of the iraq war it was spurring the development of some astounding prosthetic limbs. glad to hear a bit of good news

# ¿ Jun 21, 2023 21:14

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > War in Ukraine CE: The Golf War

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