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Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Herstory Begins Now posted:

shrapnel/fragments/any unexploded parts (eg motors, control surfaces, etc.) are usually more than enough to identify what hit somewhere.

SDBs have a fairly distinctive "switchblade" style wings. JDAM-ER have mildly similar ones. I think it's an easy mistake to make.

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Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Kraftwerk posted:

Is there any news about Ukraine switching their service rifles to NATO 5.56.mm variants or are they still using Soviet/Russian 5.45mm and these "millions of rounds" are being procured through some other means?

Ukraine is using a mix of all 4 of 7.62x39, 7.62x51, 5.45x39, 5.56x45. Must be fun for people working supply.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

aphid_licker posted:

Is 7.62x39 really still used? 54R I can see in old MGs but the OG AK-47 hasn't been in use for a looking time afaik

There were a lot in inventory. The Soviets only adopted the 5.45 in '74, and the process of switching everything over was still ongoing when the union fell apart. All the frontline units were supposed to use 5.45, but a lot of the second-line etc units were to be equipped with older guns. The AKMs that were moved to these units were largely replacing ww2-surplus smgs.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Gravitas Shortfall posted:

War in Ukraine: I have no reason to be under investigation

imo the best so far. Just cryptic enough.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Generally speaking, if the crew chamber is ever exposed to heat capable of igniting fuel or ammo then everyone inside is dead anyway. Therefore you mine as well put all your eggs in that basket to reduce the hitbox of the basket.

The ammo is in a fuel tank to reduce the risk of it going off. Diesel fuel can douse flames, even ones that could ignite propellant.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Ogmius815 posted:

What is this insanity?

You won't be very wrong if you think of them as the equivalents of SovCits.

DarklyDreaming posted:

*Loud bong hit*

Ok so Nazi Germany never formally dissolved (Because all the higher ups died and the head of the Navy oversaw the surrender to the allies) which means that it still exists on paper and is the more legitimate government of Germany because reasons, this man is claiming to represent the government of Real Germany, not Fake Germany that is currently in charge

And the funny part is that there is an entirely separate set of nutcases who think that the government of the German Empire, that is, pre-ww1 Germany, never properly dissolved and that they are the legitimate heirs of that government.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

HonorableTB posted:

On topic, the counteroffensive is going well by all measures I've seen on Telegram. OPSEC is extremely tight but many of the usual information channels are insinuating success in the little that's been put out so far, all the hint-hint wink-wink type things. I imagine we're going to hear some pretty interesting things in the coming days. Everywhere that's official, semi-official, and down to "we know this channel is a confirmed surrogate for X group" is putting out the same uniform OPSEC priority messaging

I doubt it has actually started. I think what's going on right now is preparatory, with similar diversionary attacks as before the Kharkiv offensive. That is, the actual hammer blow will land somewhere else and Ukraine is currently mostly trying to tie down Russian forces and attract reinforcements in the areas they are not targeting. Vague "offensive is going well" public statements serve that purpose.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

OAquinas posted:

Starting to get anxious about this much-telegraphed counteroffensive. UAF still holding onto the suburbs of Bakhmut?

You're probably going to have to remain anxious for at least a week more. Conditions are very muddy.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Nenonen posted:

Prigozhin said couple of days ago that the Ukrainian offensive will start on Tuesday or alternatively it might be delayed until the Victory Day on May 9th for symbolism. I guess we'll see in a week's time if he's yet again full of BS.

Depends on where it starts, but it's still kinda muddy. About a week from now sounds about right unless there is sudden torrential rain.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

RandomPauI posted:

They're anti-aircraft missiles that can take out missiles too

PAC-3 is really the other way around. It was designed to be much more of an anti-ballistic missile system, but also with ability to target planes.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

FMguru posted:

The original Patriot was an anti-aircraft missile. It was something of a pleasant surprise when it was shown to be capable of intercepting ballistic missiles during Gulf War I.

Correct, but the PAC-3 upgrade was specifically about turning the system into a dedicated anti-ballistic missile defense system. It uses new interceptors, which are based on the ones designed for the purpose from SDI.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

spankmeister posted:

The North Atlantic and Baltic and Black Sea Treaty Organization

Clearly it should be North (Atlantic, Baltic, Black Sea, Pacific) Treaty Organization. It's not like there's much going on in Southern Black Sea or Southern Pacific.

Small White Dragon posted:

I thought being in NATO preventing you from joining other alliances? No?

If you join other alliances and end up in a war because of them, you can't call other NATO members for help. This means that small NATO members are very heavily incentivized not to join other alliances, but if the big swinging dick of worldwide military spending wants to have a few other engagements as a treat, there's really nothing stopping them.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Der Kyhe posted:

There has been talks on if the Nordics should have their own defensive alliance but I think there is no reason for such anymore when Sweden joins NATO. If Sweden doesn't join in any near future thanks to Turkey and Hungary, that might be back on the planning board.

Such talk was always completely braindead. There is no world where Norway and Denmark give up the protection of NATO in exchange for being tied to Sweden and Finland.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Cpt_Obvious posted:

That probably depends on how many missiles are being sent. If it's 20, Russia probably isn't going to change anything. If it's 2000, that's a serious threat they need to consider.

UK has a stock of ~700-1000 of them. Can't give away 2000, and probably not giving 500 either.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Rad Russian posted:

The best Russia can do is another large missile attack in a couple of weeks to a month from now, based on their cadence of slow missile production or having to dig up old stock from some frozen bunkers in Siberia.

They can always pull more missiles from strategic force stocks. Like they probably did for that strike.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Ynglaur posted:

From another couple Twitter threads, getting good, clean airfields for the F-16s is going to be a challenge. Everyone knows this, but it is a big deal. (tl;dr Russian aircraft are designed to take off from runways with more debris.)

It's not just debris, it's also the quality of the landing strip. F-16 was heavily optimized to be the best in the air, and mass in the landing gear doesn't help you with that goal. It's also the reason for this funny comparison:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRgF4XjcVww

Most of the planes the Ukrainian pilots are currently flying can land more like the F-18 in that video. They will have to change a lot about how they do things to be able to safely operate the F-16. Runways will need to be longer, cleaner, and in better shape.

In peacetime, this would not be a problem, but when you are constantly operating off random straight bits of road, it can present somewhat of an issue.

Tuna-Fish fucked around with this message at 15:17 on May 22, 2023

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Meow Tse-tung posted:

I hate most of my neighbors tbh and would push for them to take the one whose dog keeps making GBS threads on my lawn as a warning to the others

Not even a little bit joking, precisely this happens a lot every time someone is rounding up undesirables. It's the reason there were so many innocents in US torture prisons in GWOT. It's the reason the purges in USSR spiraled so far out of control. The worst part is that the point someone starts collecting lists, people understand that it's a race to get the people you hate on the list before they do it to you.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Antigravitas posted:

It should perhaps be noted why the soviet system was the way it was.


What you said, but also that when the Red Army that won the war was built, they could field a limited amount of well-trained and experienced officers but almost nothing could be expected from the largely untrained and often only barely literate junior officers. This lead to a system where the higher levels worked their rear end off to micromanage everything, and the job of the junior officers was strictly to implement the commands of their superiors.

This really wasn't a bad way to do it given the constraints they were working under after the first two armies they raised and most their officers got killed by the Nazis. But they could have easily fixed all their structural issues after the war ended, they didn't, instead they just ossified the system as it was.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Nenonen posted:

:thunk:

They are not going to be giving Gripens from Swedish air force's stock to Ukraine, though. But Gripen is a much more affordable fighter to produce than F-35, so it makes you wonder...

The Gripens on offer are probably the ones leased to the Czech Airforce.

I doubt any newly built fighters will have an impact on this war. Or at least I hope so.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Mederlock posted:

Hold on a second.. have they managed to fabricobble together some kind of way to use Warsaw pact radars in their jets with the AIM-7? I can't think of any GBAD systems that use Sparrow a la the AIM-120 in the NASAMS, unless they've managed to make the Sparrow work with the Buk launchers the way they did with RIM-7 Sea sparrow

Sparrow uses the same seeker as sea sparrow, right?

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Cpt_Obvious posted:

Someone let me know if I'm getting over my skis here, but I think maybe Russia had nothing to do with those videos.
Agreed on that.

During the US presidential election, in addition to the troll farms funded by the Russians and various American politicians, there were plenty of weird youtube channels pushing very weird conspiracy theory bullshit that fit no-one's message.

The reason was simply that views on youtube are ad impressions which are money, and a bunch of people from poorer countries figured out that if you make conspiracy theory bullshit about how the democrats are going to harvest your internal organs, they get views and therefore get paid.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

CSM posted:

NATO pilots flying NATO jets to attack Russia would be an obvious declaration of war by NATO.

Your opinion would mean starting World War 3.

The counterpoint is that it has happened in the past and didn't cause WW3. The Soviet Union did precisely that in both Vietnam and Korea. Are the rules different now?

(I'm not actually advocating for this, I just think that while it would be an obvious massive escalation, it would not be a direct declaration of war.)

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

WarpedLichen posted:

Yeah, it's weird that the losses were on the Tokmak axis which is also where Ukraine has stated to be making gains.

So either cope on the Ukrainian side or not as much as a setback as advertised.

This is literally one company worth of hardware. I would expect Ukraine to lose at least 10 times this to force the line, and quite possibly more. You take casualties when you attack fortified positions.

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

does anyone have a link to a good explainer on local objectives on the southern front. obviously something like melitopol is the big operational objective, but i don't really have much of a sense of what ukraine might be trying to grind towards in their immediate front

Look at the map of railroads in Ukraine. Taking Tokmak cuts the east-west overland connection in the south.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Tiny Timbs posted:

Sounds like they aren’t very good!

They were not lost to mines, but to the helicopter shooting atgms.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

jaete posted:

Hmm, is there a source for this? Not sure if I saw anything reliable about these details, might have just missed it though


There was a video of a Ka-52 firing on them, I can't find it right now, but it's probably on /r/combatfootage .

jaete posted:

Which ATGMs would the Russian helicopters be using?

LMUR.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

TK-42-1 posted:

F-117 code name was Have Blue. Most of their secret project names are some germane bullshit like that.

Not quite. Have Blue was the codename of the two sub-scale demonstration aircraft that were built before the Nighthawk contract was started. The codename of the F-117 itself was "Senior Trend".

The best name of the program, however was the nickname the engineers gave to the wind tunnel and RCS test model that was built before any aircraft. They called it "Hopeless Diamond", as a pun referring to it's shape, the Hope Diamond, and how they thought it looked really unaerodynamic.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

lilljonas posted:

... peer-to-peer conflict ...

This is a stupid nitpick, but it's peer conflict. Peer to peer conflict is presumably something related to internet piracy.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

TheDeadlyShoe posted:

watching the video you can also see how easily things can go wrong. A single ATGM strike on a vehicle in the middle of the column means that anything forward of that vehicle can no longer retreat and anything behind it can no longer advance without going through the minefield.


The procedure for that is "the vehicle behind the immobilized one rams into it and pushes it forwards". This is a thing that actually works and has been tested. Although it makes steering difficult, but hopefully if the vehicle in front starts to drift out of the cleared path, it will detonate the mines instead of the vehicle pushing it.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Google Jeb Bush posted:

i can't imagine this was his most survivable option, surely it'd be better to grab some of the wagner treasury and run to some country nobody cares about

Doesn't work. There are countries that would snub the west in favor of Russia, and there are countries that would snub Russia in favor of the West, but there's nowhere that will snub both, just to protect a random powerless war criminal.

If Russia wants him dead and Ukraine, Netherlands and USA don't stop wanting him captured, this is his only way of staying free.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Dog Friday posted:

So we don't want Wagner to win and we don't like Putin either... What's the best outcome from all this?

Do you know the joke that Russian history is a long, long series of "... and then it got worse"?

This is one of those.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Comstar posted:

Marshal from there from where? All the Russian forces are in Ukraine. He has some strategic bombers and navy, which are of little use.

There are literally three hundred thousand Rosgvardiya not currently in Ukraine.

... However, they are mostly riot cops with military ranks, not actual soldiers. Their combat value against actual soldiers are questionable at best. So far, in the places where they were ordered to stop Wagner advance they seem to have mostly stood by and let them through, or, according to Wagner claims, been quickly dispatched.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Pakled posted:

Did those Russian helicopters getting shot down by Wagner last night not actually happen, or are they just not going to face any consequences for that?

It happened, and they are not going to be facing any consequences. The fighterbomber telegram channel (that has deep ties to VKS) is quite salty about it.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Nephthys posted:

I'm curious whether Shoigu survives being ousted. Doesn't he have his own PMC as well?

Having your own PMC means jack poo poo if you cannot inspire personal loyalty. When Prigozhin did his glory ride, at least several thousands of his underlings followed him, despite the proper authorities promising them amnesty if they'd stop. This would absolutely not happen with Shoigu's "PMC".

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

Russia has a lot of tanks. They’ll probably get T-55s or something.

Lol, the Rosgvardiya is above the MoD on the picking order, not below. They will appropriate a few hundred of the best tanks the military has, and the military will make do with T-62:s.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Ynglaur posted:

I maintain my conclusion from early/mid-2022 that the future is autocannons. I actually we should be looking at smaller, low-power, short-ranged radars to fit on existing IFVs, if such a thing is possible. (I am not a radar expert.)
I am not a radar expert either, but I have to note that the rate of advancement in commercial mmWave radars has been insane in the past few years. You can now get kilometers of range on literally a single chip, with ability to not just pick up targets but to clearly view their surface detail down to centimeter level, at a cost of a few dollars and less power use than an incandescent lamp. We went from "usable AA radar is large enough it needs it's own specialist vehicle, costs enough that it's the largest line item for that vehicle, and requires the vehicles engine to be revving to be on" to "lol we could ship an equivalent radar on everyone's personal weapon for less cost than an iphone per shooter if there was need" so fast that there hasn't been time to actually field anything in between. This development has been fueled by the self-driving craze, and might be the single most impactful thing that came out of it.

Everything, absolutely everything will mount anti-drone radars in the future.

Ynglaur posted:

If goons are interested, I have an effort-post in mind discussing lessons from the War in Ukraine for the US Bradley replacement program.

I'm interested.

Note that a lot of those lessons had already been learned before this war. There's a reason the Griffin III prototype in the expo were it was unveiled had it's 50mm gun pointed up at a 85° angle, and why the feed system on the CTAS40 cannon was designed to be angle-independent. The people who make these decisions have known for more than a decade that shooting autocannons at the sky will be important in the future.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Grape posted:

They are never ever joining so long as Cyprus is in the EU lol, and before you ask the Erdogan admin has nonstop played hyper nationalist hardball with the crisis there, so this is some sort of gesture more than an actual attempt at anything.

Full membership is pretty much out of the question. But there are intermediate steps that might be very desirable to Erdogan. His economy is cratering and his domestic currency is being rapidly replaced by the euro and the dollar in daily use. Some kind of free trade deal, similar to the one Ukraine got in 2014, would go a long way to stabilizing the economy.

Telsa Cola posted:

Also, I'd wager that, at least in some cases, the improvements in material technology and production since Vietnam has made detecting UXO more difficult with increased usage of non-metal parts and such.

DPICM at least is very easy to detect, because it has a big honking metal part that acts as the frag jacket and shaped charge casing, designed to be easy to pick up on a metal detector.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Nenonen posted:

Biden can't approve F-16 sales alone, it needs the congress' approval who have been opposed. WSJ has paywall and Twitter is poo poo so I'm not sure what

I believe that Biden is capable of obstructing the deal at his leisure, though, and the congress rarely opposes for-profit sales of military hardware, thanks to the jobs it brings.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Huggybear posted:

What KO'd the vehicles in question? Interesting that the Russians did not have the wherewithal to recover them first
I am guessing it was mines and artillery
The russians posted a video of an attack helicopter taking out at least some of them with ATGMs.


Ynglaur posted:


:blastu: Second, firepower. The original XM30 requirements asked for a 30mm autocannon, with an option to later upgrade to a 50mm. Both GDLS and Rheinmetall are proposing 50mm out of the gate, likely both using the XM913. I actually think 50mm versus 30mm matters more for anti-infantry and anti-drone than anti-armor. I don't think Russia today has anything that can sustain 25mm depleted uranium APFSDS, much less 30mm, though perhaps a modern T-80 or T-90 could from the front. Maybe. 50mm? Almost certainly not. But 50mm lets you put a much larger explosive in HE rounds, which gives you a larger burst radius, which makes it easier to shoot over a trench, into a building, or against a small drone that's zipping around.

It's important to note that the gun isn't meaningfully better at penetrating armor than the 35mm gun it was derived from, because it's not proportionally scaled. It's just the same gun, with a wider tube and ammo necked up to full case width. On the plus side, the ammo takes no additional room over what the 35mm ammo would need, on the minus side, it doesn't fit any additional propellant so won't shoot darts any harder. (Maybe a little, because of more surface on the sabot, but that's probably marginal.)

The purpose is to fit more HE, more fragmentation, and fancy fuzes into the shell, not more armor penetration.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Ynglaur posted:

Oh, interesting! I had assumed it was more about more explosive versus heavier penetrators, but wasn't certain.

From this video:



Training ammo, but shape matches the real thing. 50mm sabot, 50mm HE, 35mm HE.

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Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Tuna-Fish posted:

Training ammo, but shape matches the real thing. 50mm sabot, 50mm HE, 35mm HE.

Selfquote to add: I can't find the other presentation, but some high-up army guy explained the rationale somewhere, and beyond AA, they want ability to clear obstacles. By his telling, in Iraq they were perfectly happy with Bradley's ability to poke holes in things, but if someone piled up more than 10 bricks on a road, a Bradley had to either expend a tow, have someone dismount to clear it, or call up help from above because the 25mm HE was just anemic at moving earth. Therefore, 50mm with rounds that carry a very nice big HE charge.

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