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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Boris Galerkin posted:

I was wondering how you could say the title on the times article is fine because i presumed the title in the linked article is automatically taken from the actual article. I guess the actual articles title is

“How Ukraine's Dam Collapse Could Have 'Generational' Consequences”

And not the one shown in the preview in the tweet.

Paladinus posted:

On most news websites articles often have several headlines. E.g., one to display on the website, one to surface on Apple News, one to show when sharing, etc., because they serve different functions and entice people to click in different contexts. Sometimes different people assign different headlines. Maybe someone's put the clickbaity one in the wrong field. Or they've already changed the one on the website, but didn't change the one for sharing.

The original title really was "How Ukraine's Dam Collapse Could Become the Country's 'Chernobyl":
https://web.archive.org/web/20230612023510/https://time.com/6286309/ukraine-dam-collapse-ecological-catastrophe/?linkId=219362770

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mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Nenonen posted:

Not really, this does nothing to satisfy Turkey's demands. Like the article states, the supreme court gave the permission for extradition and foreign minister didn't use veto power to stop it. But Turkey doesn't want courts to be in charge, they want the government to just send to Turkey anyone Erdogan demands.

Have you heard of the price of a pound of flesh in Turkey though? As of January, beef prices were up 400% compared to six years ago. Two months later, at the end of February, it had risen still by 50%. Turkey is very hungary for flesh.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Qtotonibudinibudet posted:

unrelated to most everything important but, russian government websites have been mostly blackholing US-origin traffic for a while now, right? this isn't some weird nonsense that only affects me? kremlin.ru (though en.kremlin.ru is fine), rzd.ru, minjust.gov.ru, etc. have all been dropping all attempts to connect when ive tried to check stuff recently, and iirc that's been the case for a while. largely irrelevant since it's possible, but rather annoying to circumvent. offhand it appears to be wider in that DigitalOcean's Bangalore datacenter was seeing the same when i spun something up there to see if it was just US origins

i can't recall reading about it anywhere, and was curious if someone had seen reporting on it. i'd be interested in seeing reporting on exactly what networks are getting blocked and probing to try and black box analysis of how from someone with the ability to conduct detailed probes from a lot of sources

failing that, old niche content about computer network shenanigans that's presumably relevant again in the newly-occupied territories that i should rewatch; it was a good talk back in 2018
Works for me at the moment. Have you tried connecting with a VPN out of Russia? Maybe they are down occasionally for everyone.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

putin made another speech today that reiterates his ethnic ideology based rationale for the war. a summary from isw

a muddled mess of fake historicity invented out of mid-air by a revanchist intelligence agent to justify why he has to re-create the colonial empire of his youth. if russia is trying to lay the groundwork for a minsk 3 style frozen conflict some time next year, putin's rhetoric certainly isn't in alignment

yes, i would not call it gory, but seeing the grief, and fear, and confusion from everyone on camera, it's viscerally upsetting. at least for me

it's on the official frontline channel, and still playable for me, not sure what's up

Here is the full translated text
Address by the President of the Russian Federation

en.kremlin.ru posted:

Vladimir Putin addressed, via videoconference, the plenary session of the World Russian People’s Council.

Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia, as well as representatives of the Russian Orthodox Church and other centralised religious organisations of Russia, government bodies, public associations, prominent academic and cultural figures took part in the event.

***

President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Your Holiness, friends,

I would like to welcome all the participants in the World Russian People’s Council.

The Council was established in 1993. We remember that time as a very difficult turning point for the country. The Council managed to unite around a common set of goals representatives of the Russian Orthodox Church and other religious organisations, political parties and movements, cultural workers, scholars and scientists, entrepreneurs and people of different beliefs, views and ethnicities who were nonetheless united in one important respect, in their firmly rooted patriotism.

First of all, I want to thank you for your support and contribution to strengthening the Russian state, civil peace and accord, and consolidating society, and for the help you always offer to your compatriots and everybody who is part of the big Russian world.

I know that many representatives of the World Russian People’s Council are currently in Donbass and Novorossiya as volunteers and members of military units, protecting our brothers and sisters, millions of people in the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics, the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, alongside their brothers-in-arms. I sincerely value the help that the World Russian People’s Council provides to the front and the families of our fallen heroes. They fought for us and for our Motherland. They will rest in peace and remain in our memory for eternity. Let us observe a moment of silence.

(A moment of silence.)

Friends, our fight for sovereignty and justice is, without exaggeration, one of national liberation, because we are upholding the security and well-being of our people, and our supreme historical right to be Russia – a strong independent power, a civilisation state. It is our country, it is the Russian world that has blocked the way of those who aspired to world domination and exceptionalism, as it has happened many times in history.

We are now fighting not just for Russia's freedom but for the freedom of the whole world. We can frankly say that the dictatorship of one hegemon is becoming decrepit. We see it, and everyone sees it now. It is getting out of control and is simply dangerous for others. This is now clear to the global majority. But again, it is our country that is now at the forefront of building a fairer world order. And I would like to stress this: without a sovereign and strong Russia, no lasting and stable international system is possible.

We know the threat we are opposing. Russophobia and other forms of racism and neo-Nazism have almost become the official ideology of Western ruling elites. They are directed not only against ethnic Russians, but against all groups living in Russia: Tatars, Chechens, Avars, Tuvinians, Bashkirs, Buryats, Yakuts, Ossetians, Jews, Ingush, Mari and Altai. There are many of us, I might not be able to name every group now, but again, the threat is directed against all the peoples of Russia.

The West has no need for such a large and multi-ethnic country as Russia as a matter of principle. Our diversity and unity of cultures, traditions, languages, and ethnicities simply do not fit into the logic of Western racists and colonisers, into their cruel plans for total depersonalisation, separation, suppression, and exploitation. That is why they have started their old rant again: they say that Russia is a “prison of nations” and that Russians are a “nation of slaves.” We have heard this many times throughout the centuries. Now we have also heard that Russia apparently needs to be “decolonised.” But what do they really want? They want to dismember and plunder Russia. If they cannot do it by force, they sow discord.

I would like to emphasise that we view any outside interference or provocations to incite ethnic or religious conflict as acts of aggression against our country, and an attempt to once again wield terrorism and extremism as a weapon against us, and we will respond accordingly.

We have a large and diverse country. This diversity of cultures, traditions and customs creates greater strength, a tremendous competitive advantage and potential. We must continuously strengthen it, treasure this diverse accord, which is our common asset. I would like all the regional governors to focus on this, and I count on the authority of the pastors in our traditional religions and the responsibility of all political forces and public organisations.

I believe we all remember, and must remember, the lessons of the 1917 revolution, the subsequent Civil War, and the disintegration of the USSR in 1991. It may seem like many years have passed since then, but people of all ethnicities living today, even those born in the 21st century are still paying now, decades later, for the miscalculations made at that time – indulgences in separatist illusions, the weakness of the central authority, and a policy of artificial, forced division in this large Russian nation, a triune of Russians, Belarusians and Ukrainians. The bloody conflicts that emerged after the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union not only continue to smoulder but sometimes flare up with renewed energy. These wounds will not be healed for a long time.

We will never forget these mistakes and should not repeat them. I would like to emphasise once again – any attempt to sow ethnic or religious discord, to split our society is betrayal, a crime against all of Russia. We will never allow anyone to divide Russia – the only country we have. Our prayers are for this, our homeland, and they are expressed in different languages.

I would like to recall for this audience the words of St Gregory of Nazianzus: “Honouring your mother is a sacred thing. But everyone has their own mother, whereas the Motherland is our common mother.”

Your Holiness, colleagues. The theme of this Council session is “The Present and Future of the Russian World.” The Russian world embraces all generations of our predecessors and our descendants that will live after us. The Russian world means Ancient Rus, the Tsardom of Muscovy, the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, and modern Russia that is reclaiming, consolidating, and augmenting its sovereignty as a global power. The Russian World unites all those who feel a spiritual affinity with our Motherland, who consider themselves Russian speakers, and carriers of Russian history and culture regardless of their ethnicity or religion.

But I would like to emphasise that the Russian world and Russia itself do not and cannot exist without Russians as an ethnicity, without the Russian people. This statement does not contain any claim to superiority, exclusivity or chosenness. This is simply a fact just like our Constitution’s clear definition of the status of the Russian language as the language of a state-forming nation.

Being Russian is more than a nationality. By the way, this has always been the case throughout our country’s history. Among other things, it includes cultural, spiritual, and historical identity. Being Russian is, above all, a responsibility. To reiterate, it is about the enormous responsibility to safeguard Russia, and this is what true patriotism is all about. As a Russian, I am here to say that only a united, strong, and sovereign Russia can guarantee the future and independent development of the Russian people and all other peoples who have lived within the borders of our country for centuries and are united by a common historical destiny.

What does sovereignty mean for our state, for each family, and for each person? What is its value and true essence? Primarily, it is freedom. Freedom for Russia and our people and, therefore, for each one of us, because in our tradition, a person cannot feel free unless his loved ones, his children and his Fatherland are free. Our soldiers and officers, men and women of our country, are defending this genuine freedom.

A free nation that understands its responsibility before current and future generations is the only source of power, sovereign power, which is called upon to serve all people, rather than someone’s private, corporate, class, or even foreign interests.

A truly free person is a creator. We will support everyone's aspiration to be useful to the country, society, and people. This is what sovereign development in the national interests is made of.

We are faced with the daunting task of developing vast areas from the Pacific to the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea. Our economy, industry, agriculture, innovative industries, creative industries, and national businesses must increase their capacity multiple times over.

I am now reaching out to entrepreneurs who I know are many in this audience. I would like to thank you, friends, for your coordinated efforts. We have thwarted the unprecedented economic aggression of the West by uniting the efforts of the state and business. Its sanctions Blitzkrieg has failed.

Russia will step up support for sovereign national entrepreneurship. We have fundamentally new tools being developed for that right now. Invest in Russia, create new jobs, expand production, and participate in personnel training. If you do that, the national economy will grow, creating more success and opportunities for your companies. By focusing on strengthening sovereignty, national businesses are growing stronger and more sovereign themselves as they shed dependence on the components of the current world order.

The sovereign development of the country, its economy, business, the social sector should bring well-being to all people, all Russian families, and, thus, be fair. This is not about a primitive one-size-fits-all approach. Justice means primarily decent living conditions, modern facilities for culture, healthcare and sports in all regions of the country. This means a qualified and well-paid job and high public prestige for workers, engineers, teachers, doctors, artists, cultural figures, entrepreneurs, every responsible specialist and master. Justice means equal, broad opportunities for study, for a start in life and self-fulfilment for youth.

The West is now pursuing a “cancel culture” policy, but this is, in fact, a renunciation of humanitarian education. As a result, both culture and education are becoming primitive. Many traditional subjects are simply being thrown out of Western academic programmes and replaced by some gender or other similar sciences – pseudo sciences, of course. In the meantime, we need a real breakthrough in cultural life. And we have a lot to learn in this respect from our predecessors that set the tone for the entire world in both traditional and, by the way, avant-garde art. I am convinced that the country’s sovereignty and strengthening its role in the world are impossible without a flourishing, distinctive culture in all of its manifestations.

And, of course, we should take all the best achievements made by the domestic and global systems of traditional education. Importantly, our schools and universities must be modern and open to all advanced ideas.

We need an integral holistic approach to education with family, education, national culture, children’s, youth, sports and military-patriotic organisations, large-scale mentoring movements; and let me add, the wise word of our spiritual clergy harmoniously supplement each other. The latter is simply essential.

Yes, the Church is separate from the state and the Patriarch [Kirill] has told me more than once that despite this fact we have developed unique relations between the Church and the state. I would like to note in this context that the Church cannot be separated from society or from people. I fully agree with this. And this is why I would like to emphasise again the importance of the participation of representatives of all traditional Russian religions in the education and upbringing of our youth, and of course, in the consolidation of spiritual, moral, and family values. The involvement of the clergy from all traditional religions is an enduring value.

Your Holiness, friends,

You know that the Executive Order declaring next year – 2024 – the Year of the Family in Russia has already been signed. And I would like to say that this decision is indeed based on the position of the absolute majority of our society. I am sure the World Russian People’s Council unanimously supports it as well.

Here is what I would like to say and make clear. We will not overcome the daunting demographic challenges facing us solely with money, social benefits, allowances, privileges, or dedicated programmes. True, the amount of the budget’s demographic spending is extremely important, but that is not all there is to it. A person’s points of reference in life matter more. Love, trust, and a solid moral foundation are what the family and the birth of a child are built on. We must never forget this.

Thankfully, many of our ethnic groups have preserved the tradition of having strong multigenerational families with four, five, or even more children. Let us remember that Russian families, many of our grandmothers and great-grandmothers had seven, eight, or even more children.

Let us preserve and revive these excellent traditions. Large families must become the norm, a way of life for all Russia’s peoples. The family is not just the foundation of the state and society, it is a spiritual phenomenon, a source of morality.

All levels of government, our economic, social and infrastructure policies, education and awareness-raising, and healthcare should be engaged without exception in the work of supporting families, mothers and children. All public organisations and our traditional religions should focus on strengthening families as well. Preserving and increasing the population of Russia is our goal for the coming decades and even generations ahead. This is the future of the Russian world, the millennium-old, eternal Russia.

Your Holiness, friends, we have many ambitious goals before us, and fulfilling them requires a truly concerted effort, which we are ready for. We have become stronger. Our historical regions have returned to Russia. Society is rejecting everything superficial and turning to true and genuine values.

Pyotr Stolypin emphasised that law based on national power takes precedence. Together, we have shown such national strength and national will, the determination to uphold our fundamental interests, the fundamental interests of the people of Russia, to be guided not by someone else's borrowed views, but by our own sovereign worldviews, our understanding of how the family and the entire country should live, and to build Russia for ourselves and our children.

I would like to thank you again for your support and patriotism and, of course, to congratulate you on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the World Russian People's Council.

I would like to address special words of thanks to its head, Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia.

I am aware of your tireless work, Your Holiness, to bring about the spiritual revival of Russia and of the importance and influence of your position. I want to emphasise this. Under your leadership, the Russian Orthodox Church, clergy, and laity do much to implement social, charitable, and volunteer projects. I am also aware of the support provided to our servicemen and their families and how eagerly our soldiers and officers on the frontlines seek out the Patriarch's words.

I am pleased today, at the World Russian People's Council, to congratulate you on being awarded the 2023 Presidential Prize for your contribution to strengthening the unity of the Russian nation. You have my deepest respect. I wish the Council every success in its work.

Thank you.

To be continued.

Shoutout to cancel culture.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Qtotonibudinibudet posted:

sorta. the point is that it specifically isn't working from my US ISP or VPS (or the India VPS i tried because why not) at the same time other regions work fine, which is what's interesting. they do appear to be blocking at least some US origin traffic, but apparently nobody cares

actually routing to them is okay, insofar as TCP traceroute ends up in the Rostelecom network fine (rzd.ru is within the Rostelecom network, so once traffic gets there there should be no issue with internet-level routing fuckery)

code:
$ sudo traceroute -T -p443 rzd.ru
traceroute to rzd.ru (212.164.138.129), 30 hops max, 60 byte packets (12389   | 212.164.138.129  | 212.164.128.0/19    | RU | ripencc  | 1998-12-15 | ROSTELECOM-AS, RU)
 1  _gateway (192.168.7.1)  4.126 ms  4.067 ms  4.053 ms
... local ISP
 6  xe-2-2-0.mpr4.sfo7.us.above.net (64.125.69.65)  4.927 ms  1.930 ms  2.901 ms
... Masked
... A bunch of Cogent intermediate endpoints
19  be12488.ccr42.ams03.atlas.cogentco.com (130.117.51.42)  147.866 ms * be12194.ccr41.ams03.atlas.cogentco.com (154.54.56.94)  146.387 ms
... Masked
24  * 185.140.151.249 (185.140.151.249)  209.734 ms  182.436 ms
25  185.140.151.255 (185.140.151.255)  186.472 ms * * (12389   | 185.140.151.255  | 185.140.148.0/22    | RU | ripencc  | 2016-02-26 | ROSTELECOM-AS, RU)
... Masked

> tcpdump shows endless SYNs only
actual HTTP(S) requests never get a response either. SYNs go out, nothing comes back.

the VPN i use is unfortunately bad for reconnaissance because it does some fucky poo poo with its network. i can successfully get HTTP responses when connected to their Kazakhstan location, but traceroute handling on the VPN provider is bizarre--they maybe do a TCP proxy and hide the egress path on their end, so my end magically sees a single hop only. HTTP success does indicate that it's not blocked despite the inability to see the path.

code:
$ sudo traceroute -T -p443 rzd.ru
traceroute to rzd.ru (212.164.138.121), 30 hops max, 60 byte packets
 1  tc-138-121.tc.rt-solar.ru (212.164.138.121)  141.257 ms  141.281 ms *

12:24:25.951897 tun0  Out IP VPN.40615 > 212.164.138.127.443: Flags [S], seq 3152241802, win 5240, options [mss 1310,sackOK,TS val 4217956773 ecr 0,nop,wscale 2], length 0
12:24:26.130487 tun0  In  IP 212.164.138.127.443 > vpn.40615: Flags [S.], seq 2810111569, ack 3152241803, win 64900, options [mss 1310,sackOK,TS val 774490879 ecr 4217956773,nop,wscale 8], length 0
12:24:26.130531 tun0  Out IP VPN.40615 > 212.164.138.127.443: Flags [R], seq 3152241803, win 0, length 0

That is interesting. I don't know what's going on but there is a blog post here saying AWS and DO IPs are often blocked (presumably others too): https://idiallo.com/blog/website-dont-work-in-russia

The blog links to this website also: https://isitblockedinrussia.com

Thank you for the nerdy response.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

nm

mawarannahr fucked around with this message at 18:51 on Dec 5, 2023

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Pook Good Mook posted:

Ya that's why I put them in quotes. I have to guess that you can get "loan" assistance from different pots of money that are easier to disburse for whatever reason. I doubt Ukraine is obligated to pay them back, or if they are, it will be over decades at minimal interest the same way the WW1 loans to Britain were paid.

I edited the post cause I realized it's not really the place for sarcasm here. To clarify, I am frustrated that the war was at the same time lauded as a "cheap" way for the US to drain away the money and other resources of an adversary but the plan was to have the Ukrainian people pay for it whatever the outcome, by further stepping on the gas of privatization and liberalization, removal of workers rights that was deemed a requirement for western support. The house (capitalism) wins no matter what.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Rahu posted:

Is there any credible evidence that Ukraine is responsible for this? Credit card readers are a pretty popular target for hacking campaigns even in a non-war context.

This is the group that claims responsibility. IDK if they are credible.
https://twitter.com/ITArmyUKR/status/1741423756831019063?s=20

Source attributing this to them:
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1741482471315624423?s=20

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Qtotonibudinibudet posted:

for nicky 2 there's at least the whole thing where the orthodox faithful are like "ah so noble he was martyred when he and his family were brutally and callously murdered by the evil godless communists", so i can "get" it from that angle even if i think it's stupid but... if that's your thing why would you put him opposite noted godless communist stalin

like idk, combine stalin with buff manly man and noted authoritarian rear end in a top hat alexander III or something

Stalin was the one brought the church back, actually🙏


mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

Guys mostly born in the 70s and 80s being the majority paints that recruiting shortage in a real light, especially if these are the frontline soldiers who’d make up the majority of pows.

For reference the average age of US troops in Iraq was 33, but due to the natural age skew, over 70% killed were in their 20s. The olds were mostly in senior positions or support roles in safe regions, not kicking in doors or manning dangerous outposts.
This is an interesting point. So no one else has to replicate the effort, I calculated the median birth year and it is 1984.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Ynglaur posted:

Tucker Carlson is a loving traitor. He's acting as a foreign agent, is clearly doing so, and should be loving indicted for it.

The biggest harm of arresting a journalist would probably be to the US itself, which has already dropped three points last year in the World Press Freedom Index.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019


Hybrid, according to the Carnegie Endowment: Putin’s War Has Moved Russia From Authoritarianism to Hybrid Totalitarianism

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Discendo Vox posted:

Your personal feelings are factually false.
What do you mean? It's definitely been referred to as a proxy war, and the Ukrainians have specifically been identified as proxy forces of the U.S. by a few officials who have the weight of experience to speak on the matter. If this is their claim, would you say that being a proxy force implies being a proxy?

Opinion | Why Russian Sanctions Won’t Stop Putin

www.nytimes.com - Wed, 06 Apr 2022 posted:

## A former head of NATO’s armed forces, Gen. Philip Breedlove, makes the case for what will stop the war instead.

Breedlove: …In war, there’s a lot of things you want to do. And in planning war, there’s a lot of things you want to do. The list is — there’s a list. But a couple of those things are, one, deter your enemy and not allow yourself to be deterred. Two is seize the initiative, and don’t let the enemy take the initiative away from you. We are zero for two in that respect.

Coaston: But we’re not at war with Russia. Is it worth saying that?

Breedlove: I think we are in a proxy war with Russia. We are using the Ukrainians as our proxy forces.

Coaston: Can a proxy war stay a proxy war?

Breedlove: I assume that that’s our current plan. So I think the answer is yes. Now, if the atrocities continue to be unveiled, at what point do the conditions change? The NAC, the North Atlantic Council, and NATO had an emergency meeting this morning. My guess is that was all about what we saw in Irpin and Bucha. And somebody’s got to be held responsible for that. You asked me a question, can this go on? I think it can, if the nations continue to choose to allow Russia to do as it wills on the battlefield without consequence. I guess it can go on.

See also Leon Panetta -

quote:

We are engaged in a conflict here. It’s a proxy war with Russia, whether we say so or not.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPWu7cPPVv0

It seems like there's a fair amount of discussion as to what terms apply, and that the lack of an agreed-on definition may be part of the problem:
An intellectual battle rages: Is the U.S. in a proxy war with Russia?

quote:

“Unfortunately for those who like their strategic concepts to be as precise as the best modern weaponry, ‘proxy wars’ lacks an agreed meaning and is used in different ways,” Lawrence Freedman, professor emeritus of war studies at King’s College London, wrote in a January essay published in Britain’s New Statesman.

“The basic idea is that you get someone else to do your fighting for you,” wrote Freedman, who argued that the concept did not apply to Ukraine.

But Hal Brands, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, has said that is precisely what the United States and its allies are doing in Ukraine. “Russia is the target of one of the most ruthlessly effective proxy wars in modern history,” he wrote in an opinion column for Bloomberg shortly after the war began.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Moon Slayer posted:

Punchbowl has two articles on the Munich conference. Bolding and a couple additional paragraph breaks mine:

Do you mind posting links?

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

I've never heard of Punchbowl but VOA reports it and several other outfits are backed by Alibaba. Interesting.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

MikeC posted:

In what way
I didn't know this was happening, and I was surprised Punchbowl, which I have first heard of today, is notable enough to warrant a mention in VoA in a story about foreign influence in US media. VoA implies it's a significant national security risk. I also did not know that VoA would seriously investigate media outfits in the US and contact them directly to ask for explanations. I would have assumed it's contrary to their mission in some way.

(I had to do some searching around before op dropped the link to figure out what they were talking about and only found backstory and not the actual content.)

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Kalit posted:

Kind of ironic, considering you stated it's an impossible "war" (i.e. attempted genocide) for Ukraine to "win" (i.e. survive) early on:

And yet....

Could you clarify your argument, like, state it in different words? Having a hard time interpreting it in the context of the thread.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Kalit posted:

I thought it was obvious, but I'll try to explain it even more. Cpt_Obvious seemed to be complaining about people who stated Russia would not be able to sustain a long term war. Which, so far due to other countries not going on the offensive directly against Russia, they have.

However, at the start of this invasion to try to destroy Ukraine, Cpt_Obvious seemed to think that Ukraine would be easily taken over by Russia. Hence, why I called it ironic.

That makes a little more sense, I guess. Thanks :)

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

OddObserver posted:

Reports that another Russian A-50 AWACS got shot down... this time apparently over Russia.

Major egg on the face of breakingdefense.com's Reuben Johnson if true
After historic shoot-down, why Russia will struggle to replace its A-50 AEW&C plane

breakingdefense.com - Wed, 31 Jan 2024 posted:

As for when another A-50 could find itself a target of Ukrainian aggression, it could be a while. In its mid-January release, British intelligence noted that another an A-50 had apparently replaced the one taken out on Jan. 14, “but this time over land within Russian territory … .”

“This activity is highly likely indicative of a reduced risk appetite for the airframes and an attempt to preserve remaining A-50 MAINSTAY at a loss to its overall effectiveness over Ukraine,” the Brits said.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

steinrokkan posted:

Very concerning that Ukraine allegedly loses track of 75% of all aid. I wonder where the stolen 80% of aid ends up. Doesn't it concern you that 90% of what we give to Ukraine is given straight to Al Qaeda?

Did you read the same post that I read? It says weapons shipments, not all aid, and it says rates up to 70%, not 75, 80, or 90%. Here:

quote:

"Sure our weapons shipments go missing and unaccounted for at rates up to 70% but whats the big deal???"

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Raenir Salazar posted:

I'm not exactly sure how 70% of all weapon shipments doesn't at least probably mean some approximately large chunk of all aid; unless that 70% is just amazon delivery of individual clips of bullets? In any case is there a source for this? And for the implication that this overwhelmingly ends up in the hands of terrorists? The post made two very clearly connected claims. Both need to be addressed.

I have no idea and I did not make those claims, but I don't think the response was on the mark.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Raenir Salazar posted:

I'm a little flummuxed here, your response is to suggest an argument you actually had no idea was true or not?

The response took to the OP's claim regarding weapons shipments and but responded as if the claim applied to all aid. I have no opinion on the claim itself, but I think the response was to a claim that was not made.

steinrokkan posted:

The point of the response was that op's argument was silly, with made up numbers and absurd accusations designed to sow fear, if not by op, then by the propaganda outlet they got that information from. You can replace the individual fabricated claims with increasingly outlandish accusations and insinuations to ratchet up the anti Ukrainian sentiment in a process of long term rhetorical manipulation, and that seems to be exactly what is going on.

Ah. For my sake, please say what you mean next time.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Deteriorata posted:

Hamas is run by Iran, which is supplying Russia - so Ukraine's sympathies would be pretty clear.
Iran does not run Hamas, to my knowledge. Did something change?

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Deteriorata posted:

Russia is well aware that NATO can respond with much more force than they could escalate to. It's all chest-thumping and saber-rattling.

Russia can't handle the cast-offs and obsolete stuff NATO is providing to Ukraine. NATO coming directly with their A-game would not go well for them.

NATO's A-game might not be up to it anymore -- the recent performance of some of its key members in Operation Prosperity Guardian, the lack of unity over such matters, internal conflict among members, and the ongoing fiasco of Israel's campaign (which is supported by US intelligence) do not inspire confidence. As for Russia, they are handling it so far.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Orthanc6 posted:

Hungary's president ratified Sweden for NATO, so it's just left for the US to rubber stamp everything now that all NATO governments have ratified right?

Welcome to the club Sweden:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-president-signs-swedens-nato-membership-ratification-2024-03-05/

It's a shame. I wish it had not happened. As if it wasn't enough they sold out the Kurds, they were also glad to lift their arms embargo against Turkey. I do not think this was a good path for Sweden to pursue. Good luck to them.

Sweden’s arms exports to Turkey in 2023 totaled $386,000

www.turkishminute.com - Mon, 04 Mar 2024 posted:

Data from the Swedish Inspectorate for Strategic Products (ISP) have shown that the country’s arms exports to Turkey totaled 4 million Kronor ($386,000) in 2023, Agence France-Presse reported.

In 2019 Stockholm introduced restrictions on arms sales to Ankara in response to Turkey’s military operations against Kurdish groups in Syria.

The embargo was lifted in late 2022 following negotiations between the two countries during Sweden’s NATO accession process, which was eventually approved last month by Turkey after months of negations.

The amount of arms exports to Turkey from Sweden has led to unease among some advocacy groups in the country.

“The resumption of arms exports to Turkey clearly shows that Sweden places greater importance to NATO membership than to respecting human rights, democracy and international law,” said the peace and disarmament NGO Svenska Freds in a statement.

“The arms industry wants to present itself as a contributor to freedom and democracy, but Swedish arms companies also export (their products) to undemocratic regimes, countries that violate human rights and international law,” the NGO added.

People in these countries “pay a high price” for flourishing arms industry, it said.

Sweden and Finland pursued a policy of military non-alignment during the Cold War era between the Soviet Union and the West.

But Russian war on Ukraine, launched in February 2022, upturned geopolitical calculations and forced the two to seek the nuclear protection afforded by the world’s most powerful defense bloc, NATO.

According to the ISP, Sweden’s arms exports rose 18 percent in 2023 to reach 1.6 billion euros as Russia’s war on Ukraine drove a search for weaponry.

Most of the exports went to European Union countries and 39 countries that Sweden cooperates with, ISP said in its statement.

Sweden has a growing defense industry, with Saab making the Gripen fighter jet, the Global Eye surveillance aircraft and anti-tank weapons.

“The degradation of the security situation and the continuing rearmament in the world means that the Swedish defense industry can expect many orders for a long time,” said ISP Director General Carl Johan Wieslander in a statement.

He said Sweden’s military equipment is attracting great interest, particularly in Ukraine.

The top 10 destinations for Swedish arms exports are the United States, Brazil, Pakistan, the United Kingdom, Germany, India, Norway, France and the Czech Republic.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Rust Martialis posted:

You spelled it wrongly in any case, it's 'Türkiye'.

Or, since the spelling change was apparently yet another one of Erdogan's brilliant ideas, you can just spell it Turkey to annoy his fanboys.
Yeah, I do not call it Türkiye in English, it feels ridiculous. It's been Turkey forever. It would be similarly groanworthy if everyone had to start using Deutschland, Hanguk, and Hellas for cheap domestic political tricks in those countries.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

steinrokkan posted:

I just add (currently not associated with the bird by request of President Erdogan) whenever I mention Turkey, in order to respect the wishes of the Turkish people (currently not associated with the bird by request of President Erdogan)
Derails getting a little out of hand but I will add I was a little taken aback by this pin that just arrived in a selection of 100+ random pins my partner ordered online


Hieronymous Alloy posted:

It's the 21st century why isn't there a :turkey: emoji (with pilgrim hat)

See above

e: on a more serious politics-style note... I think it's absolutely fine if a country wants to use a different name because of a colonial legacy or some other kind of oppression. unless you count the allied occupation years around WW1, Turkey (or the majority of the people who live there today and identify as Turks, at least) doesn't have that. OTOH if Armenians want me to call their country something else, clearly that would be the right move.

mawarannahr fucked around with this message at 18:41 on Mar 6, 2024

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

SaTaMaS posted:

For some reason gunpowder has to cure for six months, which eats up a lot of time when creating new shell factories. Europe will be able to ramp up production at the end of the year as a result of the new capacity to the point of enabling a new Ukrainian offensive. However Ukraine is in a very vulnerable position until then since Russia already had their shell factories ready to go.

This article was posted a week ago
Europe battles powder shortage to supply shells for Ukraine

www.france24.com - Sat, 02 Mar 2024 posted:

Paris (AFP) – Hard-to-find gunpowder is hindering Europe's scramble to provide hundreds of thousands of shells for Ukraine's defensive effort against Russian invaders, with solutions only starting to emerge.

"We have all become aware of the need to face up to the scarcity of some components, especially gunpowders," French President Emmanuel Macron said Monday after a gathering of Kyiv's allies in Paris.

"Powder is really what's lacking today," he added.


EU internal market commissioner Thierry Breton told reporters in Paris Friday that the bloc also faced challenges finding the raw materials for gunpowder.

"To make powder, you need a specific kind of cotton, which mostly comes from China," he said.

Nitrocellulose, also known as guncotton, is a key ingredient in gunpowder manufacture.

"Would you know it, deliveries of this cotton from China stopped as if by chance a few months ago," Breton added.


Breton said that "Nordic countries have found a substitute for the Chinese cotton... innovation is at work, precisely to meet the need for powder, because... we have problems today with powder capacity".

Companies producing the substitute ingredients for powder would be among those selected for grants under the EU's Act In Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP) to be announced next week, Breton said.


Have these companies been announced? What is the substitute?

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

steinrokkan posted:

They are still making nitrocellulose from actual cotton as they did in 19th century? That seems almost quaint
You'd think they would have massively funded substitutes beforehand to avoid depending on adversarial nations!

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Blue Footed Booby posted:

I love this forum.

Third option - she has started to believe the Russian claims about the Nazis and thinks it's cool

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

LifeSunDeath posted:

let's check in on how those russian elections are going:
https://packaged-media.redd.it/6sor...10c251d3512#t=0
just like all the previous elections

I think it's pretty cool you can vote online and polls are open over 3 days. Even the latter is better than many us states.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

spankmeister posted:

What do you think is happening right now in Russia? Elections? How delusional are you, really?

Why are you responding to me and not the poster who actually used the word "elections?" If you read my post, you will see I am talking about the polling process. I didn't think my post was that long. I think you are looking for this post:

LifeSunDeath posted:

let's check in on how those russian elections are going:
https://packaged-media.redd.it/6sor...10c251d3512#t=0
just like all the previous elections

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

RAND posted an article about their their contributors' view on the role of elections in Russia that may be of some interest here
We Already Know Who the Winner Will Be. What Else Does the Russian Election Tell Us?

www.rand.org posted:


The outcome is a foregone conclusion. So why bother?

An election in Putin's Russia is not a contest. It is an affirmation of Putin's authority—a display of power, a choreographed spectacle like changing the guard in London. Putin will be reelected not because he is necessarily the voters' preferred choice over other candidates, but because he has demonstrated his authority by eliminating any serious opposition to his leadership, demonstrating that he is in total command.

An election in Putin's Russia is not a contest. It is an affirmation of Putin's authority,

The pageant and speeches tell the Russian people how to align themselves with what Putin believes, what he has decided and—the big difference with elections here—not what they can expect from him, but rather what he expects of them. The Soviet Union had a command economy. Putin's Russia has command thought.

With the war in Ukraine now having turned the corner into its third year, the election is a vehicle for several messages:

Putin remains in charge. Despite challenges to his leadership—like the bizarre march on Moscow by the late Yevgeny Prigozhin or any inspiration from the recently eliminated Alexei Navalny—Putin is very much in charge.

The war in Ukraine will continue. That became apparent in the staging of Putin's official announcement that he would run. It took place following a ceremony where he awarded the highest medal for heroism to Russia's soldiers who fought in Ukraine. After the awards, as Putin chatted with the recipients, the former commander of the pro-Russian Sparta Battalion in Russian-occupied Donetsk, in well-prepared remarks spontaneously asked Putin to run.

“It is thanks to your actions and your decision that we have obtained our freedom,” he said. “We want to take part in the election of [the] president of the Russian Federation, and you are our president. There is so much work ahead of us…We would like to do this under your leadership.”

Putin is confident that Russia will win. Putin's February 29 State of the Nation address carries a confident tone that things have turned the corner in Ukraine and that Russia now has the strategic advantage. Looking at recent reports of Russia's horrendous casualties, its losses of advanced aircraft, and the number of its warships sunk by the Ukrainians, that assessment might seem delusional, but Putin's path to victory has always relied on divisions and discouragement in the Western alliance. Putin is convinced Russia will win because the West will wobble.

Looking at countries where elections with real consequences are scheduled—the United States for one—Putin's assessment seems perhaps not so far-fetched. The allies are divided domestically and squabbling with each other. The outcome of the U.S. election could very much affect the defense of Ukraine and the future of NATO.



Putin's vision is more grandiose—a global culture war. Putin's portrayal of a global war is not about Russian tanks rolling through Eastern Europe, let alone nukes. According to Putin's vision, Russia is defending not only itself but traditional conservative values against the imperialist pretensions of a satanic and decadent West—a contest in which Russia can count on allies in the Global South and many in the West itself.

Part of this is a reassertion of Cold War alliances. It also reflects the economic realignment that has occurred since Russia invaded Ukraine and the imposition of numerous economic sanctions. But most of it derives from Putin's interpretation of Russian history, which reaches back long before the 1917 Russian revolution. It appears throughout his public messages.

Without formally institutionalizing the role of religion, Putin has melded his mystical vision of Russia's past with the cultural views of Russia's Orthodox Christianity as the unifying ideology. Russia is defending not only Russian territory but Russia's critical cultural sovereignty.

b]A global ideological war with no geographic limits or timetable is Putin's comfort zone[/b]. His life and future were shattered in 1989 with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union. In Putin's mind, it was the 20th century's “greatest geopolitical catastrophe.” It was, said Putin, the demise of “historic Russia.” Russians lost respect and territory. The country was impoverished. Putin, the KGB colonel, was forced to moonlight as a taxi driver.

Which brings us back to the point of the election: It confirms that Russia is Putin. Putin is Russia. A total Russian effort is required. Dissent will not be tolerated. Slacking off is sabotage. Disloyalty to Putin is treason. This is the roadmap for the future distilled in his fifth run for the presidency.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Raenir Salazar posted:

I think there's some confusion here regarding this post Mawarannahr, can you clarify if you're being sarcastic, or if these are on paper benefits of the Russian system you like even if the rest of the system is largely a sham, or something else?
I like the system as it is described on the Kremlin's website. I would like it if three-day physical polling and online voting, in addition to vote by mail, were implemented everywhere, from Alabama to Zonguldak. If someone proposed a ballot measure to do so, I would vote for it if I were eligible.

Vladimir Putin voted in the Russian presidential election

en.kremlin.ru posted:

Vladimir Putin voted in the Russian presidential election.

The presidential election in the Russian Federation is being held March 15 through 17. For the first time, the polling stations are open for three days including remote online voting, which is available in almost a third of the regions.

I was genuinely surprised to read this on the Kremlin's website. I assumed it would be a single day as that's what I'm more familiar with. Personally I hold Putin in about the same esteem I hold Erdogan.

mawarannahr fucked around with this message at 21:08 on Mar 16, 2024

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

How is the Estonian experiment in online voting going? I haven't heard that much since articles when it was being introduced.

e: apparently it worked well a year ago
How did Estonia carry out the world's first mostly online national elections - e-Estonia

e-estonia.com - Tue, 07 Mar 2023 posted:

### For the first time in history has a majority of votes in a national parliamentary election been cast online rather than on paper. Estonia elected its parliament in the first week of March, and 51% cast their vote online. Estonia has offered secure i-voting since 2005, and the number of citizens taking advantage of internet voting has gradually increased.

### How did I vote

It’s another Monday morning in the office, except the 27th of February is not like any other – it’s the first day of the parliamentary elections in Estonia. I am hosting a delegation very soon at the e-Estonia Briefing Centre, wanting to hear about digital wonders taking place in Estonia.

But it’s the elections! I must vote. Before the guests arrive, I open the laptop and enter valimised.ee to download the voting application. I insert the ID card into the reader, verifying my voting and district eligibility. As I click next, the list of candidates becomes visible. I select my preferred candidate and proceed to confirm. For that, my selection is once more displayed. Upon clicking “vote, ” a window requiring my Pin-2 code pops up, meaning I will seal my vote with a digital signature, a process an average Estonian has performed thousands of times.

It took me around a minute to make my voice heard about whom I want to see govern Estonia for the next four years. It took less time than writing down this explanation.

### It’s convenient and safe

I-voting has been available in Estonia since 2005 and relies heavily on strong voter authentication via eID. Since then, five elections of local governments, five parliamentary and three European Parliament elections have occurred. I-voting might provoke mixed feelings about safety and integrity. But one thing is for sure – if there were any doubt our elections might be compromised, i-voting would not be available like it has been for 18 years.

The best part is that you don’t have to trust the process blindly. Here’s how to verify it.

The National Electoral Committee is an independent institution responsible for holding free, general, uniform, and direct voting (offline and online) where every voter has only one vote, and that vote remains secret. The Electoral Committee does not cater to any political power’s needs but rather broadens the participatory democracy for the voters.

I-voting offers an incredible level of transparency and integrity which experts and enthusiasts consistently monitor in real-time, the voting application source code is made publicly available, and several in-depth audits have been carried out on the system’s functioning. Moreover, within 30 minutes after casting a vote, each i-voter can verify with the help of a smart device if their i-vote reached the electronic ballot box correctly. An additional verification mechanism you will never get after dropping your ballot paper into the security box at the polling station.

Misuse of i-voting is also a larger myth than you might imagine. The elderly are the eligible but vulnerable voters group, who, under external pressure, might give their PIN codes and ID cards to the caring staff, for example, in elderly homes. However, hypothetically possible scenario, none of these allegations has been proven despite this matter being the subject of an investigation by the police, the managers of the election, and the Chancellor of Justice.

Also, you can change your i-vote countless times. Not to be confused with casting a limitless amount of votes – changing your one designated vote throughout the i-voting period, in which the vote cast the latest will be counted. Oh! And your right to ballot paper vote still remains! After the end of the i-voting period (in the 2023 Parliamentary elections from February 27th to March 4th), you can still show up at the polling station on election day and make your choice written on paper. In this case, the electronic vote will be deleted.

### Check, and then double-check

In 2021 several amendments regarding voting were passed, including enabling the person who has i-voted to change (or affirm) their vote on voting day in the polling station. Hence, i-votes cannot be counted before the polling stations are closed. Once that happens, i-votes are compared to paper votes, double votes are removed (the ballot paper vote remains), and i-votes are anonymised, meaning personal data is extracted. To ensure the secrecy of each vote, the order of anonymised votes is shuffled and re-crypted.

Shortly put – the safety protocol to treat i-votes is deliberately making sure no one can track whom you voted for. Not only is your vote safe, but no one knows it came from you.

Although i-votes are digital, the results are not revealed automatically. The Electoral Committee’s various members holding distributed decrypting keys initiate the i-vote counting process, where digital votes are mathematically verified and the count certificate issued.

In human language, just like paper votes need to be taken out of their respective sealed envelopes and counted by hand, the digital vote is extracted from its digital envelope and run through a counting algorithm; there is no need to calculate every digital vote manually. The first confirmation of i-votes was made public approximately three hours after closing the polling station. The double-confirmation will take roughly the same time, making Estonia’s voting system among the fastest from closing the elections until the publication of results.

The principle of uniformity means that every voter’s vote must have the same weight. In 2005, the Supreme Court found that, in i-voting, despite repeated voting, a voter cannot affect the election results to a greater degree than the voters who use other manners of voting. A vote cast by electronic means is counted as one vote, and in terms of election results, it does not have more influence than a vote cast by a voter using another manner of voting.

### The world’s first mostly digital elections

Election participation is not mandatory by the Constitution of Estonia. Every citizen has the right but isn’t obliged to vote. The introduction of i-voting has not previously had a significant impact on voter turnout. The greatest impact on voter turnout has been in voting in foreign states.

In the 2023 Parliamentary elections, the highest voter turnout was registered, amounting to 63,7% of the eligible population.

For the first time in history, more i-votes (51%) were cast than paper votes (49%), amounting to record 313k digital votes registered (The National Election Committee will confirm the Exact percentage of votes).

The record voter turnout surprises Estonians due to the methodology change for calculating turnout from Riigikogu elections. Previously, in addition to the citizens permanently living in Estonia, the turnout reflected only those citizens permanently residing abroad who actually voted. Thanks to the electronic voter’s list, regardless of their permanent residency, all voters will be included in the calculation of voter turnout, expecting the turnout figure likely to fall.

Despite changes in calculation, Estonians are used to electronic services and see them as a natural part of their lives. I-voting is no exception. Although i-voting being available since 2005 already, the argument behind the logic is not any separate e-service, but rather a wholesome ecosystem where people trust the strong electronic identity forming a part of their everyday consumer’s path of public and private services. I-voting to become the majority participatory channel of elections in Estonia reflects a maturing digital state where people change processes to fit their lifestyle better without compromising the values and principles of a democratic, transparent society.

And, of course, you’re curious about who won. Estonians voted for Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Reform Party) to remain in power, with 37 seats in parliament secured for the Reform Party. And another undisputable win for Estonian democracy is a record-high number of female representatives. A total of 30 women were elected to Riigikogu, two more than in the previous elections!

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Weyd posted:

I can share my experience without having to link wikipedia or xkcd memes - it was a 5 minute affair as I downloaded an app off the government website, I identified myself using my smartphone and picked my candidate for the parliament among the candidates in my registered district, then I finished my breakfast. Once your vote has been cast, you can re-cast it until the voting deadline and verify it using the same means.

Funnily enough it is usually the older, conservative and pro-russian demographic that tend to be against the e-voting since it has become the preferred way by the younger generation.

That sounds pretty neat, thanks for sharing your experience. Kudos to Estonia for pulling it off cause k think there have been Russian cyberattacks on their systems for a pretty long and consistent basis.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Nitrox posted:

Tiktok and Facebook demand full access to your phone when you install the app, it's not a stretch to think that they're going to get access to your voting information.
Fortunately you don't have to give it to them. I think it's harder for them to get much data off your phone even if you give full access (on iOS at least).

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

Barrel Cactaur posted:

https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/home-and-community/safety-topics/deaths-by-transportation-mode/
https://www.nhtsa.gov/book/countermeasures-that-work/pedestrian-safety

You are safer on an airline than walking between your car and the terminal. Mostly because it minimizes your exposure to impaired/inattentive drivers or your ability to operate the vehicle while impared.

Has this been updated to account for the risk of acquiring COVID in the TSA line / on board / in terminal and both the acute and long term effects that can impose? Walking from car to terminal, the risk of catching a virus is much lower.

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

spankmeister posted:

No I was responding to you, so you can leave out the snark. It certainly looked like you were praising the fully rigged Russian election process over the (admittedly very flawed) US election process. Making a distinction between election and polling process is useless semantics.

That's not what I was doing, so please be calm.

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mawarannahr
May 21, 2019


What is this and how does it relate to the war in Ukraine?

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