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Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
Goddamit cinci, I fell for that for a minute.

I think making some fun of Russia's scraping of the tank barrel is fine, but I feel betrayed by cinci. You're supposed to be bereft of humour, dammit.

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Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
The big cruise missiles for this purpose in NATO inventories (see KEPD 350) are launched by aircraft. Ukraine does not have the launch platforms for them.

The problem with ground-launched cruise missiles is that they have to expend a lot of energy to get into the air, while aircraft can fly to a release point and the missile doesn't have to get up to speed.

So to enable Ukraine to strike deep, it would first have to receive aircraft, and then modern missiles compatible with those aircraft. Beyond the technical problems it seems there is scarce political will to ship those aircraft.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Thread name contest is open until Latvian midnight, themed for this farce.

I can't come up with something witty, just literal "wow_mao" and "Minecraft Map Discord Channel" is funny enough for me. How do you even top that?

The Internet is intensely stupid.

e: leaking classified documents, IN A MINECRAFT CHANNEL

Antigravitas fucked around with this message at 18:08 on Apr 7, 2023

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
Independent media has effectively ceased to exist in Russia, so the question of why certain voices are around and why certain viewpoints are being expressed inevitably turns to Kremlinology.

Dojd has been producing episodes tracking Russian propaganda: https://www.youtube.com/@Fake_News/videos

Some of those episodes were produced for Arte: https://www.arte.tv/de/videos/RC-022858/fake-news/

But only in German. :v:

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
It's TYOOL 2023 and it certainly feels from my work that it hasn't really set in just how incredibly far-reaching Sysadmin-Level access is and how much responsibility and power lies in that role. And because management typically doesn't care about computer stuff it becomes a huge liability with basically no supervision.

It's a miracle that this doesn't happen more often.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
Note the subdued response to the weapons release when it happened. Everyone involved was quite quick to make it go away.

Had that missile hit, the response would have been a skirmish, but again, everyone involved is interested in not escalating. There would have been rows over it, but mostly diplomatic skuffles and perhaps more support to Ukraine, but that's about it.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
My Eve Online trading operation had better opsec than this person who was leaking documents.

:negative:

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
FWIW, as a sysadmin you typically have methods to execute arbitrary code on client machines, which you need to have as part of your job. None of your encryption weeaboo matters if everything can be taken post-decryption. If the org is big and has processes in place even admins can be siloed a bit. While I have full access to absolutely everything, I deliberately have no credentials to backups. Those are entirely separate teams.

But, what you need for such a scheme is a) a bunch more people so you can separate their areas of access and b) you need some people with a good chunk of experience running the core, not 21 year old kids, and finally c) an organisation that cares about IT processes and whatnot.

Most orgs fail at c)

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
Improved interconnections are already planned: https://transport.ec.europa.eu/news...t-2022-07-27_en

However, you don't build comprehensive rail infrastructure over night, and rail cannot match the throughput of ships. Ukraine need access to world markets right now.

Integration of Ukraine into the single market is going to lead to some conflicts in the future. It produces a ton of grain, but EU producers are already producing plenty as well. Agricultural policy is a huge area of conflict within the EU, so… that's going to get spicier in the future.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
Calling it a coalition between far left and far right is a bit weird, considering that the Wagenknecht wing is firmly to the right of the party. I remember a recent press conference where the party leadership was openly contemptuous of her. That conflict long predates the war, too.

Zarenknecht became more popular with the Nazi party after she brought up right wing culture war topics several times, i.e. when she started spouting AfD talking points. You don't need to a grand conspiracy there, they like her because she says what they say, and they like Russia because they are fascists who hold the same values.


e: RIF in Frieden, cinci; they hated you because you told the truth.

Antigravitas fucked around with this message at 17:12 on Apr 21, 2023

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
Niemeyer is the head of the government in exile.



(Note that date)

I had assumed that Wagenknecht was strictly No Contact with him, but it would be very on brand for her to still associate with him.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

Popete posted:

Sorry about continuing this derail but I'm curios why this guy thinks he would be the head of said government? Although I did read his German wiki page translated to English and he has been convicted of fraud a bunch of times so I'm pretty sure I already know the answer.

There are several competing Kaisers (because neither the Nazis nor the Federal Republic are legitimate).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reichsb%C3%BCrger_movement

There are handbooks for public servants on how to deal with them:



(this is a real book, and the real cover)


And to bring this back to Russia: These people are generally against the current government, they typically hold far-right ideology, and they are quite receptive to basically any right wing conspiracy theory under the sun: ZOG, Germany being occupied by the USA, not having to pay taxes, Soros being evil, that the DE part of your IBAN actually stands for DELAWARE, held hostage by the Greens and so on and so forth. "Russia fights the New World Order" is just a small tidbit that slotted neatly into their Weltbild.

And I should be clear here, most of their ideas are home grown or pushed by US demagogues, Russia just positioned itself as a right-wing protector of "Judeo-Christian Values" and whatnot.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
There are some satellite images of the gigantic explosion a few days back: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/incredible-destruction-at-ukrainian-rocket-storage-site-that-detonated-from-russian-strike

It seems they were storing giant piles of explodium there, though obviously nobody is going to say how much of that was materiel used in the current war…

But still, yikes.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
That's how this kind of regime is frequently set up, though. It's not about being efficient, good at achieving goals, or anything but keeping the guy at the top in power.

Having multiple infighting (para)military organisations keeping each other in check is a classic dictator move.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
Perun has another video out, by the way:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIYC_WUSw4c

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

Charliegrs posted:

So is Ukraine going to jury rig those storm shadow missiles to their Migs and Sukhois like they did with the HARM missiles?

Who knows, but probably? This kind of missile is typically programmed on the ground anyway, so you don't have to do extensive integration work.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
True for a lot of equipment.

In the very beginning there were tons of videos of armoured vehicles getting struck from the side by some rocket without a shooter visible. Turns out Ukraine got a ton of PARM mines. Also Matadors in Mariupol; BONUS and SMART were just billed as "artillery ammunition".

It's hard to hide large hardware, but a lot of mystery ammunition mysteriously appeared in Ukraine.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

Vaginaface posted:

How do the quantity and quality of Ukraine's various military equipment compare to other NATO countries at this point?

Both kinda "eh". Lots of people in uniform, as you'd expect, but the equipment consists of lots of hand-me-downs from donor countries plus soviet-era hardware that makes up the bulk of their materiel. All the fancy poo poo they got is in short supply.

The comparison to other NATO countries is a bit difficult. NATO countries tend to be somewhat specialised and have been more focused on GWoT than peer conflicts, but they have hoarded all the fancy gear that, as Ukraine has also shown, has a really pronounced effect. It's a bit of a T55 to Leopard 2A7V comparison.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
Switzerland has a highly educated workforce with high labour costs. A lot of Swiss industry is therefore producing the kind of fancy hardware that has a high enough price tag to still be profitable. Consequently Swiss stuff is in a lot of European armies.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
Hungary has full and unwavering Polish support, and as long as that is the case it won't even think about leaving the EU.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
It should perhaps be noted why the soviet system was the way it was.

Push logistics and warfare as a science with formulas where you put in numbers and get a deterministic battle plan works well on a battlefield where communication is severely lacking. In the case of WW2 they had field telephones and very limited radio, and communication in the field involved runners.

The assumption the old Soviet army was built around is this: On the future battlefield most of your radios would be slag shortly after the war goes hot.

And massed artillery is an evergreen if you can't have air dominance.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
I don't see Ukrainians settling for less than having iron clad protection against getting raped and murdered in a genocide. Russia's intent is very clear from both words and actions. Russia also doesn't follow agreements, breaking them as soon as it's convenient. So the only settlement that is possible is one enforced by military means.



Storkrasch posted:

How would those protect in an LNR/DNR scenario where Russia supports ostensibly local insurgents?

My only solution would be making sure Ukraine has a plausible defense on its own, basically what Zelensky talked about when he said Ukraine has to turn into another Israel.

The only reason it worked then was because the Ukrainian military was in shambles. It was a serious wake up call that led to extensive reforms of the Ukrainian military so it wouldn't happen again.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
What, KEPD 350s?

I'm sure Taurus would love to restart production on them, and you can probably bolt them to a plane and program them on the ground if you are feeling adventurous.

But they are fairly limited in number (150 units operational) because bundeswehr.txt with no replacement in sight, so…

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
New Perun

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVNjqX5HQGQ

Suspiciously insistent that he is a normal person with normal hobbies.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
Is this person relevant outside of the realm of people who get all their information from Twitter?

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
The reward structure of platforms like Youtube and Twitter puts evolutionary pressure on content. Youtube rewards generative garbage like Elsagate, garish weirdo thumbnails that appeal to unsupervised children, and conspiracy poo poo like flat earth. It also somehow manages to surface good content once in a while.
Twitter consistently rewards the most credulous engagement chasers, but reality is usually boring and complicated and that doesn't fit into a one-sentence tweet (and Twitter's userbase doesn't have the attention span or intellectual ability to comprehend more than a paragraph anyway).

If you look around Youtube for Ukraine war commentary, you get some freak accidents like Perun, but the majority is an absolute waste land of what can only be called audiovisual slurry.


It's something to keep in mind when you browse the big tech platforms. The reward structure they set up will be exploited to serve as much low-effort spam as possible, and the reward structure determines the type of spam you will encounter. There isn't necessarily a conspiracy of disinformation. Profit motive and reward structure is all that's required.


Speaking of paragraphs.
https://www.ft.com/content/1cf8b9ed-6320-47c2-b87c-5508e9a7255f

quote:

Brussels is working on a four-year financing plan for Ukraine worth tens of billions of euros as it seeks to put its support for the war-torn country on a more stable and predictable footing.

The European Commission’s new approach follows criticism by allies last year for the EU’s haphazard and unpredictable financial support for Kyiv, where public finances are under immense strain because of the war. The commission has started to work on a proposal that will help cover the country’s needs not only next year but into 2027, according to EU diplomats and officials.

Backers of the plan, which still needs to be fleshed out, say it would provide Kyiv with more visibility and certainty in its finances. It is also aimed at encouraging other allies, such as the US and UK, to provide similar long-term pledges.

The US had pledged more than $26bn in economic support as of February, while the UK committed to spend £2.5bn, with even larger amounts of military assistance, according to the Kiel Institute.

If it wins the assent of all the member states, which is unlikely to be easy, the money could be used for Ukraine’s general budgetary support, extending the EU’s current macro-financial assistance package worth €18bn this year. But EU funds could also be deployed to help Ukraine pay for high-priority immediate rebuilding needs, estimated at $14bn this year alone.

The financing plan, which could entail fresh debt issuance by the commission, comes amid a review of the EU’s multiannual budget, which runs from 2021 to 2027 and has been heavily depleted by the war and associated refugee influx, as well as high inflation.

The commission proposals are still being drafted, but they could be ready as soon as this month, potentially ahead of a Ukraine recovery conference planned in London on June 21-22.

Officials hope that by coming forward with longer-term financing the EU might encourage the US to offer its own multiyear assistance. That is of particular concern given the increasing uncertainty of the political environment in Washington, as the election approaches next year and parts of the Republican party become restive over the scale of US assistance to Ukraine.

The figures involved have yet to be finalised by the commission, which declined to comment. The financial package would be linked to continuing reform requirements, as well as controls to ensure the money is well-spent.

Getting EU member states to unanimously sign off on the financing will be challenging particularly since Hungary has already held up previous rounds of funding for Ukraine as part of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s tactics in seeking to unlock billions of euros of frozen EU money for his own country.

“Ukraine’s needs are stark and they need more reassurance,” said one official briefed on the proposal. “It’s going to be a big fight [with the member states] but there’s still a lot of desire to help Ukraine.”

In March the IMF said it was providing a $15.6bn extended funding facility to Ukraine that will last 48 months, as part of the renewed effort to put Kyiv’s finances on a more secure footing. Ukraine has indicated that its financing needs next year could be as large as in 2023.

Why do foreign papers call the IfW the "Kiel Institute", by the way? Kiel has a few dozen institutes, the Institut of World Economy being just one of them…

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
Sounds presumptuous to me, but it certainly fits with my perception of the IfW. When I think "institute from Kiel", I typically think of the Geomar.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
When people talk about infantry screens for tanks, they typically mean infantry that is hundreds of meters away from the tank in question. The modern battlefield is sparse and displaced.

You don't want infantry anywhere close to a tank anyway because it's a gigantic piece of metal that may move extremely unpredictably, has extremely poor visibility, and can't hear you.

Also, if a tank takes a hit and survives, the crew is unlikely to know where that shot came from. So they're going to gtfo first, because there's a follow-up shot coming in a few seconds.

Btw., tandem warheads are typically much heavier. The PG-7V (HEAT) is lighter and easier to hit things with than the PG-7VR (tandem) that is almost twice as heavy. RPG-7 are absolutely everywhere, so it makes sense to have some ERA.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

Boris Galerkin posted:

Has there been no news other than what BBC reported?

I'm sure there is plenty of news of the same credibility of the BBC, but if you are looking for anything substantial you'll be waiting for a while. Neither side is going to be forthcoming with (truthful, comprehensive) information.

Just embrance not knowing and wait for dust to settle.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
Well, watch something while waiting for the dust to settle.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWKGYnO0Jf4

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
Doing magnet fishing is extremely inadvisable in Germany (if not illegal), same as going around with a metal detector.

Mines are built to sit in the mud, they will happily stay active during floods.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
I wouldn't put much stock into the jabbering of random soldiers. The confused reaction from the Russian side is the most convincing evidence in my mind that blowing the dam wasn't planned.
It was definitely mined well beforehand, so all it could've taken is some part of the Russian army panicking and convincing themselves that the 3000 green Leopard 2 of Scholz are about to roll across the dam and annihilate their positions.

We've already seen that the Russian army seems almost purposefully structured to produce a lack of cohesion, insane infighting, lack of accountability, and general fuckness where one part of the army will let civilians berate them without reacting and another part will go on a months long rape and murder spree.

It's just another entry on Russia's my_war_crimes.txt, probably caused by the structure of how Russia is run.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
The Puma (IFV) is actually good, actually. Just remember that the seat heating isn't automatic before complaining to the manufacturer. It's a switch, just flip it.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
I get all my best info from the Mar a Lago Discord (In the WoT channel).

Seriously though, sit back and wait. Anything that comes out is heavily curated and intentionally released. It will take a long time for an accurate picture to form. Everything until then is reading tea leaves.

I do think it's good to have heavily tempered expectations though. As mentioned all the time, attacking into prepared positions is hard and costly.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

us mic is so mind bogglingly large we can apparently lose mid-ten figures in the couch cushions

what do you know, right as congress really seems set to deadlock for the near future. complete shot in the dark, but my suspicion is that military procurement administrators and movie studio accountants could have a lively conversation with each other

The US was not alone in not using book value. It's why the IfW aid tracker had some major asterisks everyone seemed to gloss over when comparing numbers.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
The driver in a tank has dogshit visibility and sits on an engine that is quite powerful. Not a great combination.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
It all seems like theatre to me tbh., though it's certainly a little unhinged. Too much pathos.

But who the gently caress knows, I'm no Kremlinologist. Maybe wagner gets purged and its gold mines and whatnot taken over.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

Chalks posted:

I disagree, the Kremlin have clearly freaked out and initiated a bunch of emergency plans - all of which look like a massive overreaction in the face of zero actual armed rebellion. They've got roadblocks around Moscow and military vehicles on the streets in response to one guy sending out a bunch of voice messages. It's kinda embarrassing if literally nothing happens, I can't imagine this is orchestrated.

Sure, but the vibes I was getting before going to bed were "wow, this feels like Turkey's coup". The one that had some very dubious timing and let Erdogan conveniently purge thousands of people from civil society under a pretext.

At this stage it seems to have gotten a little too big for that, but I maintain that the players involved should turn the Drama Dial down a bit. It's currently at 12.

Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:

LochNessMonster posted:

Would this total chaos be a good moment for a Ukrainian push or would it be better to wait and keep seeing how things unfold?

We'd need to know what the actual battlefield looks like right now to answer this, and we don't.

Adding some chaos on top of chaos is usually a good idea though. Adding pressure on a system under stress is good if you want it to break.

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Antigravitas
Dec 8, 2019

Die Rettung fuer die Landwirte:
Call me paranoid, but I wouldn't want to step into an airplane in this situation.

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