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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a__ks1GgJRU&t=1510s

Loading a shell in a T-62. The problems here are obvious, as well as the turret rotating but not the rack of shells bolted to the floor. And seeing how the turret must rotate back to the forward position to eject the casing it takes a lot of skill to reload the gun in combat conditions without losing an arm.

But as they also state it's a powerful gun that can mess up anything but the most modern tanks.

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CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler
I think this was one person located close by, the equipment needed for it is easily available and from the footage it was basically a flying pipe bomb.
This person may have done this to spur the Russian state into 'taking the gloves off' or to make Putin look weak or be somewhat mad like Mathias Rust or the guy who killed the former Japanese PM.

The two drones arriving quite a long time apart could point to it being carried out by a single person or at least a group incapable of launching two at once.

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler

Some Centurions to go with the rest of the 1950's era stuff?

Most of the equipment of the SA armed forces is pretty unique and would be easily identifiable by a drone. It's hard to imagine anything being kept secret once used on the battlefield.

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler
The Bradleys and Challengers are already messing with the Russians by not appearing on the battlefield. Any attack without them will be seen as a minor effort which could not possibly a threat.

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler

Popete posted:

Care to explain why you think that is pro-Russian propaganda instead of just throwing a wall of text at the thread.

The war is very difficult for Ukraine, they were thrown into this and it's taken a huge toll on the country and yes likely resulted in more extreme measures to defend itself for it's very survival. We shouldn't paint a false picture of Ukraine as a flawless and perfect hero that hasn't had to face difficult choices and put a heavy toll on it's population.

The last paragraph is incredibly dumb and designed to make Ukraine look bad. If a powerful enemy invaded the US and had a realistic chance of winning there is no chance the US Army would maintain its current deployment restrictions.
Using the words "every American conflict since the Second World War" should make you delete the line if you look at the nature of these conflicts compared to a literal war of survival as a nation with no nukes to fall back on. It's Amnesty International all over again where people who genuinely believe the best outcome is for Ukraine to just stop fighting.

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler

mllaneza posted:

Here's a nice breakdown on how the US Army trains to do breaching operations. You do not achieve a useful level of proficiency in months. The Western equipped brigades that aren't on the front line? They're working on exactly this, and they're expecting to take huge casualties doing it when the time comes. Have all the best weapons won't help.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ

What will help get through Russian lines in the short term is what they're doing. Economy of force operations to roll up to the main defense lines as cheaply as possible, disrupting logistics and command as much as possible, and keeping the pressure on every Russian formation to create the possibility of getting a force into and through Russian lines somewhere. Oh, and counterbattery, counterbattery, counterbattery.

That's a nice, clear desert to practice a breach on. Now do it over muddy grounds with just a few roads, no air support, no swarm of Apaches and a lot of the enemy artillery still operational due to not having air support.

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler

20 thousands shells. That's a few hours of Russian fire at its most intensive.
Shame about those 1+ million cluster munitions destroyed by the European NATO countries.

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/26/drones-ai-ukraine-war-innovation/

quote:

LVIV, Ukraine — In an open test field in rural Ukraine, a drone equipped with a bomb lost connection with its human operator after coming under attack by electronic jamming equipment — but instead of crashing to the ground, the drone accelerated toward its target and destroyed it.

The drone avoided the fate of thousands of other uncrewed aircraft in this war by relying on new artificial intelligence software that accounts for the electronic interference now commonly deployed by Russia, stabilizing the drone and keeping it locked on a preselected target. AI capabilities help the drone complete its mission even if its target moves, representing a significant upgrade from existing drones that track specific coordinates.

This was bound to happen, civilian drones have some characteristics from being civilian in use. They have problems with connection when low to the ground far away as you're not supposed to be doing that and when connection is lost they either return or land.
In FPV attack mode you want the drone to continue on and fly into to the boxy (or boaty) thing in the middle of the camera field of view. Skynet comparisons are inevitable, weapons seeking their target autonomously already exist like the Javelin but this will be quite more impactful. It's just software that controls the drone that makes it into an autonomous weapon.

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler

SamuraiFoochs posted:

So entirely hypothetically, if Ukraine made some gains in Crimea, how big of a deal would that be? Like, if these reports are legit, how much does this matter if at all?

These guys land, launch some fpv drones on expensive targets and leave It's not about taking land.

CeeJee fucked around with this message at 12:14 on Aug 24, 2023

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler

Rust Martialis posted:

As a non-American, it's always seemed to me that Americans fetishize the PTO battles, like 'Bloody Tarawa' but when you compare it to ETO campaigns they were massively one-sided cakewalks over-hyped into these legendary epics.

Casualy rates were much higher in the PTO, the single division to fight on Tarawa lost a thousand dead and twice that injured. That's twice the D-Day losses by size of the force involved.
The whole theater was also on the whole a lot less pleasant to be in regarding nature, infrastucture and the expected treatment in case of capture.

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler
There is a logic to projecting an image of an unstoppable and inexhaustible force to bait the other side into surrendering or fleeing. And looking at how recent Western political developments go, it still is making some waves.

And there is a fascist idea of inherent superiority over the inferior others* like South African apartheid era Army officers going '30 days to Cairo' as if the entire continent of Africa does not add up to a fraction of their power.

(*these others are somehow also an existential threat to them)

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler

A big flaming stink posted:

Dude they have been launching offensive actions towards avdiivka for weeks at this point

Russia has been trying to take Avdiivka since 2014.

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler
Did the EU ministers of defense not know of this 6 month delay when they announced 1 million shells would be sent in 2023?

In that post it's mentioned 'local politics' is preventing new factories from being built and 'a solution is not yet in sight' which seems a much bigger issue then a 6 month delay after 20 months of war.

https://cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/p4013coll8/id/3332/
The US was somehow able to massively scale up ammo production 70 years ago in far less then six months. In February 1942 production was already 700 thousand 105 and 155mm shells in addition to thousands of 16/14 inch shells and millions of smaller caliber rounds. I'd be interested to see if this six months is needed for powder to be explosive at all or a regulatory requirement to reach the needed level of stability for it to be allowed to be used in production.

One thing also not mentioned is how banks and large investors like pension funds will not invest in any arms manufacturing as part of their charter.

CeeJee fucked around with this message at 08:17 on Jan 2, 2024

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler

haddedam posted:

There is an uncharacteristically great thread on /k/ which shows statistics of current russian tank losses and talks about how russia really doesn't produce any tank hulls, they rather ake old poorly mothballed tanks and refurbish them.

This also seems to apply to NATO where every 'new' Leopard 2A7/8 taken into service is in fact an upgrade on an existing 30 year old tank.

There are a lot of contradictory sources online on the production of entirely new Leopard 2 hulls. Some claim Krauss-Maffei is aleady building them, others that only a factory in Greece is capable of building new hulls. New production and upgrades are used interchangably.

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler

Cocoa Ninja posted:

Very interesting, thanks for posting.

Any idea why they think Taurus might take out the bridge when storm shadow couldn’t? Wikipedia says bomb size of the two is similar, so maybe it’s in reference to getting through defenses better, which you noted?

The Taurus has a way cooler name for its warhead.

MEPHISTO (multi-effect penetrator highly sophisticated and target optimised) versus Storm Shadow's BROACH ( Bomb Royal Ordnance Augmented Charge)

It may also be more effective but until used that's hard to say. In any case, hitting the bridge to take it out will require a lot of missiles to be fired in one attack, more than Ukraine can currently do with its Su-24s.

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler

Mr. Apollo posted:

I always hear "every war has always ended in a negotiated settlement". Is this true of WW2 also? I was always under the impression that it was the Allies presenting their terms for unconditional surrender to Germany and Japan and telling them that if they didn't accept, the war would continue until there was no one left to agree to an unconditional surrender.

If you try to look for actual cases of a negotiated settlement where one side does significant concessions in exchange for a lasting peace (what is suggested Ukraine should do) it's hard to find any. The Vietnam War had negotations and an officially signed Paris Accord but the war ended with the North achieving total military victory over the South. No negotiations were done in the Falklands War except on the surrender of Argentinian forces in Port Stanley. All of the wars Russia was involved in after the end of the Soviet Union have ended either with Russia taking what it wanted by force (Chechnya) or taking part of it and freezing the conflict to be resumed later regardless of any agreements made.

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRyCsv7CcnI

This is a Russian CIWS being used on a (probably abandoned) Somali pirate boat and it's not really looking that effective against a stationary target from a stationary ship. The radar CIWS was designed to work with against incoming missiles does not see such targets and while there is some manual control you're firing from a moving ship at a small moving target. Unless there is some sophisticated stabilizing installed and visual aids to identify the incoming drones it's just Ivan with 1970's controls trying to hit a small target that is poorly lit.

Having your own FPV drones with thermal imaging would be the way to go here or helicopters, but both would need a lot of warning time. Maybe some remote firing station mounted high in the crow's nest?

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler

fatherboxx posted:

India is a hypothesis I've seen, as it ticks the "has a stockpile that nobody touched during this conflict" and "wants to be kept unnamed because has trade with Russia".

Are they now scrubbing all the markings off the shells and is that why it's taking so long?

Markings on ammo and weapons seen on videos, parts or captured items have exposed 'secret' arms deliveries so many times already.

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler

GABA ghoul posted:

There is indeed a certain indifference to the NS sabotage in the German population (outside of the right-wing/tankie bubble). By the time it blew up there was an overwhelming public sentiment that gas imports from Russia needed to hit zero in 2023 and Russia had already shut down deliveries over the pipelines for some time. From that perspective, someone blew up a worthless & unwanted piece of metal junk in foreign waters. The monetary damage was literally 0.

Both Russia and Germany weirdly are OK with NS being gone I think.

Putin wants any way back from his forever war policy cut off and Germany does not want to get fooled again into being dependent on Russia in case someone trows Putin out a window and pretends to be good friends now.

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler
Isn't the gas to Austria going through pipelines in Ukraine, for which Gazprom still pays Ukraine every month for transit?

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler

Kchama posted:

The big issue I see with turtle tanks is that while they might be a bit too sturdy for small drone weaponry, they probably aren't too sturdy for the kind of weapons a small drone would be able to trivially call in on it. That is what happened to original the turtle tank I believe, it was later found destroyed.

The story there is that Russians filmed the turtle tank in a shed 'look at our turtle tank' and someone got enough info from that footage to HIMARS the shed.

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler

GABA ghoul posted:

Even the individual guarantees in the first draft are an absolutely ridiculous idea. Not a single nation in that list would have ever, under any circumstances accepted such an obligation. It basically means going to full scale war with Russia to defend Ukraine.

No democratic country could sell this to their electorate and China has no plausible way to defend Ukraine from across the world, even if they were willing to do it.

This is from Samuel Charap who has been pushing negitiations over arms for a long time like his "The West's Weapons Won't Make Any Difference To Ukraine" article from just before the war.

March 2022 Ukraine was also in a much weaker position and willing to accept a bad deal over being conquered which was still seen as a possibility.

edit: comparing NATO Article 5 to any agreement here is also nonsense, the consequences of that not being followed are the end of the alliance while not responding to a Ukraine security guarantee has no consequences except for Ukraine. Stating it's even better because of the text is incredibly misleading.

CeeJee fucked around with this message at 09:43 on Apr 23, 2024

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler
Bringing up the terrible situation on the front is ironic, that situation would be far better if enough people had joined the army for proper rotation of units.

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CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler

Fish of hemp posted:

Ukraine loses because European middle class don't want to give up anything.

And all effective weapons (land mines, drones, cluster munitions, dumb shells) are considered immoral. Like the cluster bomb treaty that literally says a country has to let iself be conquered and genocided rather than use cluster munitions which may 'never under any circumstances' be used.
When the EU wants to order shells they cannot order them from anyone who makes cluster munitions like the biggest shell producer in South Korea.

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