(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Russia's previous efforts to develop modern semi-conductor manufacturing have ranged from failure to total failure with no working chips produced, despite massive investment. It's hard to be optimistic about their current effort, doubly so as they've been blocked from acquiring the Dutch lithography equipment it was going to be build around. Russia is throwing a lot of resources at it but modern chips are not something that you can just unilaterally spend your way into producing. Largely they've not had too much problem importing chips via intermediaries and that's not even something you can totally stop past a certain point, though that's also not a solution to getting the most modern chips in quantities that you can build industries or weapon systems around. Realistically their best bet for modern chips going forward likely is just hoping that China can produce them. as an aside, iirc Mikron is making chips with ~2005 tech. Angsterm was even further back before they went insolvent. MCST is doing 28nm ca 2010. Russia's chip manufacturing sector has failed repeatedly to get post 2010 manufacturing processes online.
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Mar 31, 2023 22:10
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| # ¿ May 17, 2024 18:50 |
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cinci zoo sniper posted:There have been disjoint rumours, e.g., from Meltipol' area, but I haven't personally seen solid visual evidence of it. To be honest, I'm not even sure if there's a good way to discern a GLSDB strike visually, unless it, you know, fails to detonate and we get the money shot. shrapnel/fragments/any unexploded parts (eg motors, control surfaces, etc.) are usually more than enough to identify what hit somewhere. occasionally you get a really good camera getting footage of something on the way in, too. so far no evidence of glsdbs (despite Russia claiming to have already shot one down). several things have blown up recently deep behind russian lines, but that's been attributed to https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-is-using-guided-rockets-with-more-range-than-himars-launched-ones
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Apr 1, 2023 14:09
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yeah it's that
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Apr 4, 2023 00:20
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..
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Apr 6, 2023 09:03
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there are people with clearances posting everywhere. a ton of people have clearances.
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Apr 7, 2023 11:16
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they're minors aka idiots
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Apr 13, 2023 06:16
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It would just get deconflicted and a billion apologies would happen.
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Apr 13, 2023 20:04
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Just because the response isn't instant nuclear war or even instant war or other escalatory reactions doesn't in any way mean there's no response. Deconfliction is effective because neither side wants a war, but it doesn't just erase stuff like it never happened. There's always a response. Countries just have a multitude of ways to respond that is not open warfare. Also you'd probably be surprised just how much can go unresponded to for the sake of deconfliction. Good example of this was when Iran fired 15 ballistic missiles at a US base in Iraq after the Suleiman killing. If the interest is to not have a war then it's not going to blow up into a war.
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Apr 14, 2023 01:08
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It certainly aligns with a bunch of the russian voenkors complaining about how spetsnaz recon/infiltration units were getting used as assault forces both to little effect and at huge cost, particularly back around the time of the Kharkiv offensive.
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Apr 14, 2023 15:46
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Mederlock posted:Just a super quick aside, wanted to say that I appreciate the adjustments you've made to the moderation of this new thread since it went up, after all the discussion in the last one. The conversation has flowed well and is still reined in when it stops being productive and/or interesting and the rare probes have been judicious and fair. Thanks for your efforts here, we appreciate it seconding this
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Apr 15, 2023 05:14
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big shtick energy posted:Does "Precision aerial munitions" mean JDAMs? Have those been mentioned before? yeah they've been getting at least some amount of JDAMs since iirc january. in any event, no that's not new, unless it's referring to something else
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Apr 20, 2023 01:05
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Ynglaur posted:Ukraine has a strong junior officer corps, but its not an NCO corps in the way Western armies work. Michael Koffman, Mark Hertling, Ryan Evans, and others have commented on this. Ukraine's implementation of mission command at the tactical level is different than Western militaries, but it still works well. The above people also point out that there's been non-trivial attrition among NATO trained officers and Ukraine falls back on reserve officers, many of whom are very much of a different era.
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Apr 20, 2023 22:44
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if there was an offensive underway there would be evidence of an offensive underway
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Apr 25, 2023 03:06
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he doesn't seem gungho about shooting anything that shoots back
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Apr 27, 2023 10:08
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That averages out to like 650/day. Does track with Russia having manpower issues again despite all the people they mobilized.
Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 19:17 on May 1, 2023 |
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May 1, 2023 19:15
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Icon Of Sin posted:Jesus loving Christ, 650 dead per day would be an entire battalion rendered combat ineffective (if not destroyed outright). 4 days of that would render an entire US brigade combat team ineffective for combat ops, with 3 infantry battalions and a cav squadron (cavalry’s equivalent to a battalion). casualties, not dead. though yeah the math is basically the same for casualties and indeed that's why Russia's offensive rapidly stalled out and why they're trying a new wave of volunscription and russian nationalists are yelling about how much combat power russia pissed away for basically nothing. what a colossal loving waste of human life Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 21:15 on May 1, 2023 |
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May 1, 2023 21:13
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I get why people think it's likely a false flag and I don't think that's wrong to think, but also this is exactly, literally the kind of thing Bydanov has been fantasizing about doing for 6 months. Doubly so now as Ukraine has been trying to signal that Russia needs to shift manpower to defend it's rear. imo Russian mod having a line on this from the start isn't really indicative of much because of course they're going to. you can message/suppress/ignore stuff that happens in a border region just fine, but if a drone hits the kremlin every Russian is going to hear about that in the next 24 hours. Still, I share in the suspicion at just how ready to go with the 'the last time Moscow was attacked was in 1942' stuff they were. On the other hand, Russian nationalists have been yelling lately that Russia needs to defend its rear areas or they will be used at will to launch attacks, which does seem quite a conspicuously timed warning in retrospect in conclusion: who the gently caress knows Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 19:07 on May 3, 2023 |
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May 3, 2023 18:33
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there's at least 3 pantsir systems in the immediate vicinity
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May 3, 2023 22:25
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Comstar posted:Personally, I'm really impressed whoever it was, hit the centre of the target on the flag itself. remarkable guidance in an area where gps is heavily jammed 24/7
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May 3, 2023 23:23
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Drones have a ton of uses outside of front-lines stuff. The optics and sensor packs on modern drones are really ridiculous.
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May 5, 2023 00:21
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Charlz Guybon posted:There's no way that Prigozhin decided that on his own he'd been threatening it for at least a couple of weeks now and the reaction had mostly been that it would be an act of mutiny, essentially. idk though, beyond the obvious thing that Prigozhin is taking aim at Gerasimov and Shoigu, who knows what exactly to make of the last 72 hours
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May 5, 2023 10:03
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Lum_ posted:Before this year, they were more of a classic PMC with forces overall far better trained and equipped than the average Russian brigade. They've spent the past year bloating up with convicts and volunteers from various sources and their on-the-job training program has been "charge the front, and if you don't die, do it again tomorrow", so they are much closer to what you'd consider a paramilitary militia now, albeit still with a core of warcrimey merc goons. neither side pretended it didn't happen and indeed it happened specifically because Russian commanders, when contacted by American leadership via deconfliction lines said 'not our guys, do whatever.' so 'whatever' ended up being 4 hours of strikes by basically every weapon system that could get within range in time.
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May 6, 2023 00:51
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what? it was reported on as it happened. the significant point is that there were no member of the Russian military involved because Wagner is not the Russian military. no one was being coy about that, it's a practical legal distinction because there's no diplomatic complexity to killing non-flagged mercenaries who are presently attacking you. Wagner at that time also existed as much more of a separate force from Russian MoD and it wasn't until the war in Ukraine that they were more or less fully enmeshed within the Russian MoD structure. reporting https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-casualtie-idUSKCN1FZ2DZ dod statement https://www.defense.gov/News/Transc...ian-via-teleco/ there's stuff from even closer to the date, but the details of what had happened were not in any significant dispute basically from the moment it happened. here's the middle east thread talking about it basically as the news broke https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3839774&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=70#post481079925 note the date: https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/961617576848740352 Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 01:26 on May 6, 2023 |
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May 6, 2023 01:12
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WarpedLichen posted:I've always figured that the anti tank weapons currently in use are effective against the tanks in service, are not in short supply, and are used against tanks and IFVs alike. So it's unclear if there's a specific need for a more heavily armored IFV to cover some gap or if this is just a creation of convenience (not enough IFVs and you have tank hulls but not enough tank ammo?). short supply is relative, but there's a big emphasis on both sides at all levels of not using more tool for a task than is required because you do really want to have the fancy stuff for the situations where it is needed. tends to also be a big awareness of 'are we firing 150k missile at a 25k piece of equipment.' that's just militaries in general though
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May 9, 2023 02:18
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Djarum posted:Optics, especially modern optics, make it much, much easier to acquire and hit a target accurately. With a Red Dot for example after it is zeroed in basically where you point that dot at you hit. You couple that with magnification and you greatly increase your effective range. So you are taking valuable seconds away with using one compared to using iron sights and increasing accuracy. even the difference between iron sights and something basic like a red dot is incredible. you wouldn't think it would be a big difference but, and forgive the extremely american example, a literal child can pick up an AR with a red dot and be hitting cans from 30 meters without any training. it's incredible how much each step up of optics does for making guns easier to use and more effective. e: already answered by more knowledgeable people Kraftwerk posted:What makes optics so special compared to iron sights. Most of the time you can’t actually see what you’re shooting at, right? Like the dramatic short range videos we see of people mag dumping into Russians at the trenches or the defense vids where you see 2-3 guys shot at close range are supposed to be the exception rather than the rule. Most of the time I think you’re shooting in the general direction and by the time you find the bodies nobody actually knows who killed them. nah that thing is a big deal if it works anywhere close to as good as it appears to and they can make enough of them to have them widespread among people in combat roles. it's not just that it lets people be effective at long range, it's intended to basically let people who have no training in long range shooting consistently and even easily hit shots that otherwise they'd need some significantly specialized training. There's also knock-on effects where doubling infantry range on paper roughly halves the amount of people required to cover a given line of contact. Hell, you can not halve the number of people in an area except now twice as many fighting positions can mutually support, los depending. More range also gives more freedom wrt where people set up positions and ultimately changes how they can fight. As long as wars are still being fought on foot, having a significant range advantage is a big deal and indeed you see that prioritized at every scale. Oversimplifying a bit, but if one group can hit effectively from 700m and the other group has nothing reliably effective past 400-500m, then the former group can set up an ambush at ranges where they can't be effectively counter-engaged except by heavier weapons or air/artillery. it's basically a firing computer like you'd find in a tank or an AFV except scaled way the hell down so it can fit on an individual rifle. It's a pretty wild capability to add to individual soldiers, though it also isn't for every situation.
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May 9, 2023 08:38
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cr0y posted:I know absolutely nothing but from what I've learned from you guys over the past year or so the US/EU stationing NATO bodies and assets in Ukraine as a trip wire defense seems really unlikely and would be seen from Russia as a giant escalation. You should look up how close the closest US bases and NATO in general already are to Russia. That's already the status quo
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May 10, 2023 04:56
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Owling Howl posted:Is Switzerland particularly well stocked in ammunition or ammunition production lines? yes actually
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May 13, 2023 18:02
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Ynglaur posted:He has a far smaller army, and can ill-afford to redeploy troops from Ukraine. Who holds the Belarusian army's loyalty? probably much more about the Belarusian security apparatus than the army specifically. As long as that remains intact succession is probably a lot more straightforward than people are acting like it will be. i'd also ofc defer to the Belarusians in here. anglo world in general knows basically nothing about what goes on in Belarus
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May 16, 2023 00:57
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Paladinus posted:There are videos circulating on social media that Russia claims are direct hits (including one destroyed Patriot), and Ukraine says are intercepted missiles exploding close to the ground. worth noting that none of the videos I've seen actually show anything remotely identifiable as what is being claimed and the claims themselves afaict are more from rando accounts on social media than anyone reliable who knows maybe clear footage will come out, but currently seems pretty wildly unfounded
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May 16, 2023 14:14
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no way it's a billion dollar loss unless they totaled the entire system, which seems unlikely. in any event, every missile sent at it is a missile not sent into a Ukrainian barracks or training ground or command post or staging area or armor repair depot or civilian building, so even if it's costly it's soaking up a lot of limited russian resources.
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May 16, 2023 19:02
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Bremen posted:Now I'm imagining geolocated google ads. Some Russian guy starts browsing Reddit and up pops a "In Debt? Need Vodka Money? We have the job for you! Visit www .cashforstatesecrets. gov today!" current reality on all sides is not that far off of this
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May 18, 2023 06:37
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Mother nature remains undefeated
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May 19, 2023 20:45
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situation wrt holding and supplying what was left of bakhmut had been incredibly tenuous, to put it lightly.
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May 20, 2023 12:56
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fatherboxx posted:https://www.iswresearch.org/2023/04/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment_11.html?m=1 isw daily briefs that they put up on twitter are written up by like some intern who just puts down whatever poo poo they saw on twitter Atreiden posted:interesting analyse from Girkin, not just about the capture of Bakhmut, but Russia's force strength in generel. As usual he is not positive, especially about Russia's ammunition situation, verstka did an investigative piece a week or two back where they talked to people working in russian munition factories and common themes were 1) staffing shortages were bad enough that they couldn't actually fill a third shift 2) pay was poo poo so motivation was low 3) because of 2, they struggled to hire/retain people. 4) sometimes they weren't getting paid at all. none of the struggles are really that that surprising: it's hard and expensive to hugely scale up production of anything Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 21:56 on May 21, 2023 |
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May 21, 2023 21:50
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I think people/internet commentariat as a whole gets a very distorted view of how useful and effective tanks are from the tiny like .0001% of a tank's existence that they actually see in footage of it shortly before it blows up. Ukrainians have been clear for nearly a decade now that tanks are a huge pain in the rear end to deal with and even moderately outdated ones are extremely dangerous to go anywhere near, even with modern AT weapons. Hell, it's notable that even of the ones that you can see documented blowing up, the majority of them are blowing up to 1) unexpected threats (eg Ukraine had a ton of success recently managing to get mines behind Russian tanks and then causing them to retreat into mine fields) 2) getting used for assaults with no protection or cover or defilade or 3) getting hit by cutting edge precision munitions or 4) ambushed by atgms while on the move and otherwise unaware. I'd suggest there's a few other categories (eg AT-mines, strikes on barns tanks are being stored in, etc.) that are by nature not conveniently filmed from several angles. The one thing you see very little of is tanks getting destroyed while being used either from good defensive positions or from the front during assaults. On a related note, there's ample evidence of IFVs and AFVs getting destroyed by all manner of threats, but with tanks the range of threats that appear effective is much smaller and generally is not coming from head on. I need to read that RUSI piece. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 23:41 on May 22, 2023 |
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May 22, 2023 23:17
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There's unambiguously a shortage of training and equipment, that's the whole reason that Ukraine has been pleading with the world for training and equipment since day 1 and why so many countries are moving heaven and earth to make the maximum amount of resources available. Nor is western provided training on par with the kind of training that non-war-time recruits in a good army get where they spend often the better part of a year in training before ending up in their final units. It's not bad but there're hard limits to what can be accomplished in a couple of months. The dudes in that article are what Ukrainians are referring to when they say that every delay costs lives.
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May 23, 2023 06:51
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WarpedLichen posted:The Nazis are out of Ukraine, I would call denazification a rousing success. pretty smart to just export the russian nazis back to russia, imo
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May 23, 2023 21:24
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Ynglaur posted:Bolding mine. They are not ashamed; they are bragging. It's a completely different mindset. That is what Ukraine is fighting against. Eh there's still a lot of stuff Russia does that it never admits, eg targeting hospitals.
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May 25, 2023 06:23
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fatherboxx posted:I think George HW Bush was fairly public when he was in charge of CIA, but probably not to the point of dropping Operation Condor jokes. More recently, Pompeo was pretty vocal, too.
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May 28, 2023 10:11
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| # ¿ May 17, 2024 18:50 |
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where do you even find that poo poo
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May 30, 2023 11:24
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