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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"
More people would've fallen for it without the "Shoigu plushie."

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BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Mooseontheloose posted:

Also, it feels like Putin wants to maintain the big bad Russian Army/special forces and wants to find a victory for them to say, SEE FEAR US.

Russia's future military flex will simply be reminding everyone they have nukes every time someone does something they don't like.

You know, like they already are.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Anyone who knows the answer isn't telling so the logical thing to do is assume they do.

Honestly, only one of them has to work. The rest could be duds and it'd still likely cause a generational level of damage nationwide, especially if it's a port city and/or industrial nexus that gets hit.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Staluigi posted:

As a resident expert in anything I once read a post about ever, I strongly conclude that most Russian nukes are nonfunctional at present because you have to update the ... um, money gas. The money gas, that's in nukes, which the experts say you have to replace every so often. The money gas is expensive to replace and maintain, and russia likes to divert money from things like money gas and put it in yachts while reporting the money was spent on the money gas, so nobody in russia actually knows how many nukes actually has nonexpired gas except some guys you can't reach because they're in a yacht or they fell out a window

The issue isn't whether Russia can produce Tritium...sorry, "money gas," they certainly can. Russia is/was one of the chief supplier of rare radioactive isotopes before they decided to shoot themselves in the dick.

The issue is whether they still have the personnel to properly service and "top off" said "money gas." Again, Russia doesn't need 4500 warheads to end the Western world as we know it. They could likely accomplish that with ~400, or as little as one ICBM's worth of warheads for every "enemy" capital would be enough to change the world for the worst for the rest of *our* lifespans, at the very least.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

I'm under the impression that even if it results in a partial stalemate Putin can spin it as partially successful to the Russian Public and the rest of the nationalists. A full retreat back to 2014 borders would be a clear defeat.

I can't see him resorting to WMDs like Nuclear Weapons. He's supposed to liberate Ukraine, not destroy it. And every Country including China has made it clear that WMDs are not acceptable.

It's far more likely that Russia resumes limited underground nuclear testing as a form of saber rattling rather than just suddenly deciding to delete something from the map.

They have some new(er) warhead designs to test, and they don't have the same supercomputer availability to do it "cleanly."

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"
Yeah, I don't know why the focus is on F-16s when giving them legacy Hornets would probably be way better.

Of course, all the -18C/Ds have a whole heap of hours on the airframes.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

To be fair... posted:

Ukraine will win this war and when they do, they will drop the ra ra holy war poo poo because they won’t have to tap into such primal feelings just to stay alive. They will do mundane crap like complaining that their democracy is boring and I look forward to that day.

Even after this war, there are going to be those in Eastern Ukraine who are still going to pine for the days when the Soviet Union kept the coal mines and steel mills open.

While I laud your optimism, I can't help but think that the immediate post-war years for Ukraine are going to be horrifically marred by the fact that while we're more than happy to give them weapons to fight Russia, when it comes to giving them money to rebuild their country, we're going to leave them hanging.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Ra Ra Rasputin posted:

Hypothetical, Wagner kept marching on Moscow and Prigozhin kicks his feet up on Putin's desk in the kremlin, what then?

He gets overthrown in a week or less by someone more competent, ruthless, and connected.

A true Russian Civil War is going to be peak :stonklol:.

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BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Zwabu posted:

Likewise while the victory of the Union in the U.S. Civil War might seem obvious in retrospect based on population and industrial and economic might, there may well have been scenarios where the Confederacy might have strung together enough victories to oust Lincoln and exceed the collective will of the North to preserve the Union.

To relate this topic to the thread writ large, there were also scenarios where the Confederacy might have secured materiel support particularly from the British and in the long term, recognition of sovereignty by the Crown. Extremely unlikely, but there was a chance, however remote.

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