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Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X

rex rabidorum vires posted:

Soooooo I started this post earlier on my phone....and it started to get a little out of hand so here's the 2nd crack at it. This is going in the Loser's thread because 1. A huge reason the Penguins will end up here are because of this players play (amongst others) and 2. Another of these idiot teams might be on the one that gives this player a big contract. Boy I hope it isn't my team and yikes if it is yours. With that out of the way lets talk.....Tristan Jarry.

Since the injury and subsequent return Tristan Jarry has been, well, bad. Not exceptionally bad like Spencer Martin or Cam Talbot, but in the next group of 'bad' goaltenders like Martin Jones and Jack Campbell. To quantify this a little bit at 5v5 from his return on January 20th Jarry has posted a .897 sv%, good for 50th of the 70 goalies (300 minutes minimum) and a -5.44 GSAA and -.43 GSAA per 60. On a per 60 basis he's 52nd of 70. Moving to all strength's and Jarry drops to .892 sv% with -5.39 GSAA and -.34 GSAA per 60. His efforts place him at 49th of 74. Whats more Jarry is facing 2.88 expected goals against per 60 in all situations (33rd of 74) and 2.45 xGA per 60 at 5v5 which is 16th best in the league. For comparison Carolina's goalies face the least xGA per 60 with 2.02 and 2.11.

'Well Rex haven't the Pens been giving up tons of goals and playing from behind a lot and well game state does funny things to goalies doesn't it?' you ask. That is a good question and that's where phone posting started this got out of hand. Lets dive in! At 5v5 with 150 minutes of ice time and the game tied Tristan Jarry drops in at 43rd of 59 goalies (against since January 20th return) posting a .902 and -.33 GSAA per 60. xGA per 60 is 20th in this data set. Looking at all strengths and things get even worse! When the game is tied in all situations Tristan Jarry is putting up a diabolical .884 sv% That places him in 52nd position of 63 goalies. His GSAA ranks in at 51st of 63 with -.66 GSAA/60. xGA over this period is 2.8 xGA/60 which ranks 32nd. Adjusting to 'within 1' game state and .895 (50th of 79) and -.23 GSAA/60 (49 of 79) while facing a NHL 15th placed 2.63 xGA/60 in all situations. At 5v5 Jarry's .911 places him in 42nd place of 76. GSAA of -.03 is the same ranking. His xGA/60 is a top 10 in the NHL (9th) of 2.3 xGA/60.

What is impressive is that when the Pens are leading he is even worse. With any lead Jarry is posting a .898 sv% at 5v5 (38 of 54) and -.55 GSAA (39 of 54)....only 2.55 xGA (17 of 54). All strength sees a slight improvement to 35th of 59 and a questionable .901. GSAA drops in with -.16 and the same 35th place of 59 other goalies. When trailing it's the same story. Lower/middle of the pack. xGA against though is 15th and 16th of roughly 60 other goalies. When up 1...well I had to adjust the time. Since his return Jarry has only been 'up 1' for 116 minutes of ice time. That might be because he's posting an .879 sv% and -1.04 GSAA per 60 which places him in 38 of 44 at 5v5. All strengths somehow gets worse! .866 sv% good for 45 of 52. GSAA is -1.2 which is also 44th of 52. xGA all situation is 2.97 (18 of 52) and 2.35 xGA/60 at 5v5 (9th of 44).

And now for something weird. Which if you've made it this far thank you and congrats. When down 1 goal Tristan Jarry is the 5th best goaltender at 5v5 with a .951 sv%. The 1.18 GSAA/60 is good for 6th best. Funnier still the xGA/60 is 4th best in the NHL. These same numbers repeat themselves at all strengths. .944 sv% and +1.27 GSAA/60 good for 5th and 7th out of 50 some odd goalies. The 2.05 xGA/60 ranks 6th.


So what's the tl'dr Rex? Well it is that Tristan Jarry has been absolutely awful and bottom 3rd goaltender in the league since his return on January 20th. I've already looked at too much spreadsheets and forget what his early season stuff was, but I want to say up and down with mostly positive results. Unfortunately he either is still broken and playing through it/'the team' is pressuring and using modern medicine (toradol injections) to try and get some kind of performances. What is clear though is that since his return Jarry has been downright awful and while he has had some ups in his career I would not want to be the team that sinks years and medium to big dollars into him.

Yeah that's why he's going to end up back with the Pens on like 3 years/$4M per. They have no goalie and can't afford a real one, if he's amenable to re-signing they don't have much choice. I mean if Jarry isn't the Pens goalie next year then it's going to be someone like Jonathan Quick or Cam Talbot. Or maybe both if they finally realize Casey DeSmith is a lifelong ECHL'er living the dream.

e: rex can you do me a favor and the next time you make a huge Rex Effortpost™ don't make it post #39 on the page, tia.

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The Dirty Burger
Aug 24, 2007

1st team all star
+
2nd degree manslaughter
=
3rd world clothing line

Mind_Taker posted:

https://twitter.com/CraigSMorgan/status/1643706663894130695?s=20

It would be so NHL for the Coyotes to win the draft lottery

I too, have had enough of Phoenix’s Bullying Bureaucrats

big black turnout
Jan 13, 2009



Fallen Rib
Bullying Bureaucrats would be a good team name

Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006

How Doers get more done
Fun Shoe

rex rabidorum vires posted:

So what's the tl'dr Rex? Well it is that Tristan Jarry has been absolutely awful and bottom 3rd goaltender in the league since his return on January 20th. I've already looked at too much spreadsheets and forget what his early season stuff was, but I want to say up and down with mostly positive results. Unfortunately he either is still broken and playing through it/'the team' is pressuring and using modern medicine (toradol injections) to try and get some kind of performances. What is clear though is that since his return Jarry has been downright awful and while he has had some ups in his career I would not want to be the team that sinks years and medium to big dollars into him.

The Pens expected goals against on the season is actually a few goals above their actual goals against (256 expected, 253 actual). Real issue is they can't finish. 287 expected goals for, but they've only actually scored 248.

Anyways this doesn't discount your point. Jarry has been bad since coming back from injury. But overall on the season the finishing/bad luck has been what has killed them the most.

They have an expected goal differential of 31 and an actual goal differential of minus 5

The Dirty Burger
Aug 24, 2007

1st team all star
+
2nd degree manslaughter
=
3rd world clothing line
This “hazardous, un-lined Tempe landfill?” Arizona Taxpayers should pay to build a sports and entertainment district on it and we’re suing for billions

The Dirty Burger fucked around with this message at 01:37 on Apr 6, 2023

th3t00t
Aug 14, 2007

GOOD CLEAN FOOTBALL

bub spank posted:

I feel like this about the Sens too. They made it competitive until the last few weeks of the season, and did so without their #1 centre for the entire year, and without their #1 goalie for long stretches of the season, including for the entirety of this current slump that wrecked their playoff hopes. They've got their core locked up for the next few years, that core only got better as the year went on, and there's no more obvious boat anchors on D like Zaitsev. Tkachuk and Stutzle both look like legitimate first liners, with Stutzle on pace for ~95 points and 40 goals, and Tkachuk over PPG. Next season's depth chart looks like this:

I think that in any other division, that lineup is either in the playoffs or comfortably in the wild card race. I think that in the Atlantic (and the East in general), it'll genuinely be a tossup, because there's 4 legitimately good teams in Boston/Tampa/Toronto/Florida, and then another team (Buffalo) in the exact same spot as Ottawa, trying to break in.

Skinner Tage Tuch
Peterka Cozens Quinn
Mittlestadt Krebs Olofsson
Greenway C4 RW4

Expiring Forward contracts:

Okposo - I want him to retire so the Sabres don't think of bringing him back
Girgs - Would be happy to re-sign him. Shot suppression grinder 4th line type.
Jost - Fine as a 13/14th forward
Hinestroza - We can do better as a 13th/14th forward

Would like to see the Sabres move Olofsson in the offseason.

Samuelsson + Dahlin
Power + RD2
Bryson/Stillman + Boosh/Jokiharju

Haula, Tatar, Garnet Hathaway.

Ryan Graves, Connor Clifton, Gudas, Mayfield. We need complimentary players for Power.

Sign a good veteran goalie for next 1-2 seasons, Varlomov, Anderson. Throw a $4.2m aav offer sheet at Swayman to force Boston to lose him or spend cap they don't have. If Swayman signs it, it only costs a 2nd rounder.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN

Ginette Reno posted:

The Pens expected goals against on the season is actually a few goals above their actual goals against (256 expected, 253 actual). Real issue is they can't finish. 287 expected goals for, but they've only actually scored 248.

Anyways this doesn't discount your point. Jarry has been bad since coming back from injury. But overall on the season the finishing/bad luck has been what has killed them the most.

They have an expected goal differential of 31 and an actual goal differential of minus 5

For sure. Lack of finish has been horrific this year. Which is why I was hoping the Pens would get JVR in....a middle 6 winger with some finish. Instead they got a cut rate 'creator/passer' type in Granlund to play with a line that has zero finish. Tbh Heinen has been super disappointing this year, but I think he was hugely a product of E Rod being awesome last year and uh lol lets not re-trod that ground :(

The Dirty Burger
Aug 24, 2007

1st team all star
+
2nd degree manslaughter
=
3rd world clothing line

th3t00t posted:

Skinner Tage Tuch
Peterka Cozens Quinn
Mittlestadt Krebs Olofsson
Greenway C4 RW4

Expiring Forward contracts:

Okposo - I want him to retire so the Sabres don't think of bringing him back
Girgs - Would be happy to re-sign him. Shot suppression grinder 4th line type.
Jost - Fine as a 13/14th forward
Hinestroza - We can do better as a 13th/14th forward

Would like to see the Sabres move Olofsson in the offseason.

Samuelsson + Dahlin
Power + RD2
Bryson/Stillman + Boosh/Jokiharju

Haula, Tatar, Garnet Hathaway.

Ryan Graves, Connor Clifton, Gudas, Mayfield. We need complimentary players for Power.

Sign a good veteran goalie for next 1-2 seasons, Varlomov, Anderson. Throw a $4.2m aav offer sheet at Swayman to force Boston to lose him or spend cap they don't have. If Swayman signs it, it only costs a 2nd rounder.

It’s funny how many teams are missing that steady top-4 RD and would pay a ton of assets to address it, but last summer John Marino got traded for fuckin Ty Smith lol

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

The Dirty Burger posted:

It’s funny how many teams are missing that steady top-4 RD and would pay a ton of assets to address it, but last summer John Marino got traded for fuckin Ty Smith lol

The Canucks balked at moving Brock Boeser for him. Christ that would've been the trade of the decade in retrospect.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN

The Dirty Burger posted:

It’s funny how many teams are missing that steady top-4 RD and would pay a ton of assets to address it, but last summer John Marino got traded for fuckin Ty Smith lol

I hate Ron Hextall so loving much. Matt Dumba is best available to fill that role on UFA market IMO. Then you're at like Klingberg (yikes) or Severson's wild ride.

The Dirty Burger
Aug 24, 2007

1st team all star
+
2nd degree manslaughter
=
3rd world clothing line

rex rabidorum vires posted:

I hate Ron Hextall so loving much. Matt Dumba is best available to fill that role on UFA market IMO. Then you're at like Klingberg (yikes) or Severson's wild ride.

Klingberg and his agent are absolute jabronis for turning down that rumored Dallas extension. Whole league knows I’m horrible defensively and won’t sign me to a huge deal? Let me “bet on myself” and sign a 1-year Prove It deal with the worst defensive team in the league

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X

rex rabidorum vires posted:

I hate Ron Hextall so loving much. Matt Dumba is best available to fill that role on UFA market IMO. Then you're at like Klingberg (yikes) or Severson's wild ride.

That would be perfect, a guy almost 30 and in steep decline and visibly slower than he was 2 years ago and will require a 5+ year contract. Fax it baby.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

The Dirty Burger posted:

Klingberg and his agent are absolute jabronis for turning down that rumored Dallas extension. Whole league knows I’m horrible defensively and won’t sign me to a huge deal? Let me “bet on myself” and sign a 1-year Prove It deal with the worst defensive team in the league

Klingberg fired his agent for that call. Probably cost him $40m.

CDX
Dec 3, 2004

Cheap, but not as cheap as your girlfriend.
Of course Gurianov is not wearing a pride jersey tonight for warmups and therefore is not taking said warmups, and of course Montreal is still going to play him even though Farrell is sitting.

Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006

How Doers get more done
Fun Shoe

rex rabidorum vires posted:

For sure. Lack of finish has been horrific this year. Which is why I was hoping the Pens would get JVR in....a middle 6 winger with some finish. Instead they got a cut rate 'creator/passer' type in Granlund to play with a line that has zero finish. Tbh Heinen has been super disappointing this year, but I think he was hugely a product of E Rod being awesome last year and uh lol lets not re-trod that ground :(

I think even keeping McGinn, Blueger, and Kapanen would have been preferable to what they ended up doing.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
The Pens' PK collapsing after replacing Blueger with Granlund was the most predictable thing since sunrise to everyone on Earth except Sullivan and Hextall.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Eric the Mauve posted:

The Pens' PK collapsing after replacing Blueger with Granlund was the most predictable thing since sunrise to everyone on Earth except Sullivan and Hextall.

JT Miller has been on a heater since the Pens didn't move two first round picks for him. 21pts in 15 games in March all playing centre. He looks back to his usual self.

Ginette Reno
Nov 18, 2006

How Doers get more done
Fun Shoe

ThinkTank posted:

JT Miller has been on a heater since the Pens didn't move two first round picks for him. 21pts in 15 games in March all playing centre. He looks back to his usual self.

I wouldn't put it past the Pens to revisit that in the summer. That said, no idea what FSG thinks of the Pens' work this season. I don't know if missing the playoffs or getting bounced early will actually bring change.

AntiDepressor
Jun 3, 2011

CDX posted:

Of course Gurianov is not wearing a pride jersey tonight for warmups and therefore is not taking said warmups, and of course Montreal is still going to play him even though Farrell is sitting.

It’s real dumb. Just play Farrell or any other on the list of warm bodies that were called up and bam nobody has to make a bullshit statement. If the team was really concerned that it was a danger to his family they would sit him. Not like it matters at this point of the season and Gurianov probably won’t even be on the team next year.

Aphrodite
Jun 27, 2006

Montreal’s not a good place to be homophobic.

The Dirty Burger
Aug 24, 2007

1st team all star
+
2nd degree manslaughter
=
3rd world clothing line
Cam Talbot giving so little of a poo poo down the stretch that he’s healthy scratched tonight lol. The balls of this guy asking for $5mil+

trilljester
Dec 7, 2004

The People's Tight End.
Erik Karlsson has 98 points for now. 100 should be achieved by the end of the season.

Cartoon Man
Jan 31, 2004


Oh no the Caps lost again, how utterly dreadful.

Cartoon Man
Jan 31, 2004




:munch:

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Luke Hughes come to Butthead

SilvergunSuperman
Aug 7, 2010

fawning deference posted:

Luke Hughes come to Butthead

Man I'm jealous of that team

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN

Ginette Reno posted:

I wouldn't put it past the Pens to revisit that in the summer. That said, no idea what FSG thinks of the Pens' work this season. I don't know if missing the playoffs or getting bounced early will actually bring change.

I'm hoping they put some dude and their analytics department in charge....but there is and isn't some wiggle room in the roster.

Eric the Mauve posted:

The Pens' PK collapsing after replacing Blueger with Granlund was the most predictable thing since sunrise to everyone on Earth except Sullivan and Hextall.

Oh oh oh we did! Going from Marino/Zar/Blueger and whoever to now Rutta/Carter/Granlund/Dumo rules.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X

rex rabidorum vires posted:

I'm hoping they put some dude and their analytics department in charge....

lol that is not going to happen. They will put someone handpicked by Sullivan nominally in charge, but in practice doing whatever Sullivan tells him to. Sully is in charge now.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN KASPERI KAPANEN
Well considering Sullivan was asking for Chychrun that's fine.

Good Soldier Svejk
Jul 5, 2010

If they're not going to fire him he should be in charge of the roster.
He may have vet blindness but he still knows who (externally) to target and it ain't Kulikov or Granlund

The Dirty Burger
Aug 24, 2007

1st team all star
+
2nd degree manslaughter
=
3rd world clothing line
Letting the coach responsible for five straight first round exits run your front office as well seems like a good idea, lets give Sully a chanc

It’s like promoting Sheldon Keefe to GM

Good Soldier Svejk
Jul 5, 2010

It'll either work or be incredibly funny
I see no downsides

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X

The Dirty Burger posted:

Letting the coach responsible for five straight first round exits run your front office as well seems like a good idea, lets give Sully a chanc

It’s like promoting Sheldon Keefe to GM

Probably going to be six straight in a few weeks.

It's got to be pretty rare for a coach to lose 6 straight playoff series and keep his job, much less get promoted. Back-to-back Cups buys you a looooooot of runway.

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
https://twitter.com/CJTDevil/status/1644332292729364480

hope for tiny goalies everywhere, may he and Wolf open the door back up

Aphrodite
Jun 27, 2006

Stopping an extra .9 of a goal every single game is loving dumb.

I remember when I hated Ullmark. I probably will again. But for now...

The Dirty Burger
Aug 24, 2007

1st team all star
+
2nd degree manslaughter
=
3rd world clothing line

T-Bone posted:

https://twitter.com/CJTDevil/status/1644332292729364480

hope for tiny goalies everywhere, may he and Wolf open the door back up

It’s not fair that some franchises search for a starting goalie for decades, meanwhile Nashville transitions seamlessly from Vokoun -> Rinne -> Saros

If they ever learn how to draft a scoring forward Nashville could be dangerous. Last time they tried was Tolvanen, and lol

Good Soldier Svejk
Jul 5, 2010

Tomasino seems like he has a chance to turn into something.

T-Bone
Sep 14, 2004

jakes did this?
Sucks that his prime is probably going to get Cory Schneidered/John Gibsoned, given Nashville's trajectory.

The Dirty Burger posted:

It’s not fair that some franchises search for a starting goalie for decades, meanwhile Nashville transitions seamlessly from Vokoun -> Rinne -> Saros

If they ever learn how to draft a scoring forward Nashville could be dangerous. Last time they tried was Tolvanen, and lol

Askarov is a top 3 goalie prospect in the league too lol

T-Bone fucked around with this message at 16:41 on Apr 7, 2023

Mike_V
Jul 31, 2004

3/18/2023: Day of the Dorks
The dumbass Blues picked up 2 more points, all but ensuring they're going to end up in the worst possible situation at the end of the season.

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ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Mike_V posted:

The dumbass Blues picked up 2 more points, all but ensuring they're going to end up in the worst possible situation at the end of the season.

Washington are tanking like absolute champs right now.

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