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Zack Werenski is the only positive xG defenseman on their entire team. So I'd probably start at Gudbranson and uh go from there. Anyways I'm just going to peak the digs. Maybe grab a couch and put my feet up on the coffee table for a bit.
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Apr 5, 2023 02:49
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Soooooo I started this post earlier on my phone....and it started to get a little out of hand so here's the 2nd crack at it. This is going in the Loser's thread because 1. A huge reason the Penguins will end up here are because of this players play (amongst others) and 2. Another of these idiot teams might be on the one that gives this player a big contract. Boy I hope it isn't my team and yikes if it is yours. With that out of the way lets talk.....Tristan Jarry. Since the injury and subsequent return Tristan Jarry has been, well, bad. Not exceptionally bad like Spencer Martin or Cam Talbot, but in the next group of 'bad' goaltenders like Martin Jones and Jack Campbell. To quantify this a little bit at 5v5 from his return on January 20th Jarry has posted a .897 sv%, good for 50th of the 70 goalies (300 minutes minimum) and a -5.44 GSAA and -.43 GSAA per 60. On a per 60 basis he's 52nd of 70. Moving to all strength's and Jarry drops to .892 sv% with -5.39 GSAA and -.34 GSAA per 60. His efforts place him at 49th of 74. Whats more Jarry is facing 2.88 expected goals against per 60 in all situations (33rd of 74) and 2.45 xGA per 60 at 5v5 which is 16th best in the league. For comparison Carolina's goalies face the least xGA per 60 with 2.02 and 2.11. 'Well Rex haven't the Pens been giving up tons of goals and playing from behind a lot and well game state does funny things to goalies doesn't it?' you ask. That is a good question and that's where phone posting started this got out of hand. Lets dive in! At 5v5 with 150 minutes of ice time and the game tied Tristan Jarry drops in at 43rd of 59 goalies (against since January 20th return) posting a .902 and -.33 GSAA per 60. xGA per 60 is 20th in this data set. Looking at all strengths and things get even worse! When the game is tied in all situations Tristan Jarry is putting up a diabolical .884 sv% That places him in 52nd position of 63 goalies. His GSAA ranks in at 51st of 63 with -.66 GSAA/60. xGA over this period is 2.8 xGA/60 which ranks 32nd. Adjusting to 'within 1' game state and .895 (50th of 79) and -.23 GSAA/60 (49 of 79) while facing a NHL 15th placed 2.63 xGA/60 in all situations. At 5v5 Jarry's .911 places him in 42nd place of 76. GSAA of -.03 is the same ranking. His xGA/60 is a top 10 in the NHL (9th) of 2.3 xGA/60. What is impressive is that when the Pens are leading he is even worse. With any lead Jarry is posting a .898 sv% at 5v5 (38 of 54) and -.55 GSAA (39 of 54)....only 2.55 xGA (17 of 54). All strength sees a slight improvement to 35th of 59 and a questionable .901. GSAA drops in with -.16 and the same 35th place of 59 other goalies. When trailing it's the same story. Lower/middle of the pack. xGA against though is 15th and 16th of roughly 60 other goalies. When up 1...well I had to adjust the time. Since his return Jarry has only been 'up 1' for 116 minutes of ice time. That might be because he's posting an .879 sv% and -1.04 GSAA per 60 which places him in 38 of 44 at 5v5. All strengths somehow gets worse! .866 sv% good for 45 of 52. GSAA is -1.2 which is also 44th of 52. xGA all situation is 2.97 (18 of 52) and 2.35 xGA/60 at 5v5 (9th of 44). And now for something weird. Which if you've made it this far thank you and congrats. When down 1 goal Tristan Jarry is the 5th best goaltender at 5v5 with a .951 sv%. The 1.18 GSAA/60 is good for 6th best. Funnier still the xGA/60 is 4th best in the NHL. These same numbers repeat themselves at all strengths. .944 sv% and +1.27 GSAA/60 good for 5th and 7th out of 50 some odd goalies. The 2.05 xGA/60 ranks 6th. So what's the tl'dr Rex? Well it is that Tristan Jarry has been absolutely awful and bottom 3rd goaltender in the league since his return on January 20th. I've already looked at too much spreadsheets and forget what his early season stuff was, but I want to say up and down with mostly positive results. Unfortunately he either is still broken and playing through it/'the team' is pressuring and using modern medicine (toradol injections) to try and get some kind of performances. What is clear though is that since his return Jarry has been downright awful and while he has had some ups in his career I would not want to be the team that sinks years and medium to big dollars into him.
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Apr 5, 2023 23:49
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Ginette Reno posted:The Pens expected goals against on the season is actually a few goals above their actual goals against (256 expected, 253 actual). Real issue is they can't finish. 287 expected goals for, but they've only actually scored 248. For sure. Lack of finish has been horrific this year. Which is why I was hoping the Pens would get JVR in....a middle 6 winger with some finish. Instead they got a cut rate 'creator/passer' type in Granlund to play with a line that has zero finish. Tbh Heinen has been super disappointing this year, but I think he was hugely a product of E Rod being awesome last year and uh lol lets not re-trod that ground 
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Apr 6, 2023 13:51
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The Dirty Burger posted:It’s funny how many teams are missing that steady top-4 RD and would pay a ton of assets to address it, but last summer John Marino got traded for fuckin Ty Smith lol I hate Ron Hextall so loving much. Matt Dumba is best available to fill that role on UFA market IMO. Then you're at like Klingberg (yikes) or Severson's wild ride.
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Apr 6, 2023 15:55
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Ginette Reno posted:I wouldn't put it past the Pens to revisit that in the summer. That said, no idea what FSG thinks of the Pens' work this season. I don't know if missing the playoffs or getting bounced early will actually bring change. I'm hoping they put some dude and their analytics department in charge....but there is and isn't some wiggle room in the roster. Eric the Mauve posted:The Pens' PK collapsing after replacing Blueger with Granlund was the most predictable thing since sunrise to everyone on Earth except Sullivan and Hextall. Oh oh oh we did! Going from Marino/Zar/Blueger and whoever to now Rutta/Carter/Granlund/Dumo rules.
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Apr 7, 2023 13:59
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Well considering Sullivan was asking for Chychrun that's fine.
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Apr 7, 2023 15:21
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BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:I am also nervous about the Red Wings, especially considering how much Pittsburgh doesn't want to win. I do not want this team finishing better than 11th. Oh no the Pens want to win. They are trying extremely hard to do so. They just suck.
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Apr 7, 2023 18:11
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If Philly wanted rid they would retain and trade. Which would be the smart thing to do anyways.
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Apr 11, 2023 01:51
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Jarry - 3 against on 2.3 expected .880 sv% for the night. The 50th 'best' goalie in the NHL his return from injury. Dumo a -2. Rutta - 1. Kulikov -1. His Pens career is now 1 point, -1, and 12 minutes of ice time a night. Great upgrade on the back end. Carter gets bailed out of his -1 by Heinen. Granlund a non-entity. Please fire everyone thanks. Edit: Carter remains a 36% goals for on the season at 5v5. I would like to never see him in a Pens sweater again. 24 goals for and 41 against...at 5v5. Lets not talk about him on the PK. Dumo plays 17:04 at 5v5 every game. 52 goals for and 70 against. 42% split. Worse PK'er on the team this year. I wish to never see him in a Pens sweater ever again. Ron cleared cap to sign Jan Rutta. 46% goals for. I would prefer not to see him in a Pens sweater ever again. rex rabidorum vires fucked around with this message at 03:19 on Apr 12, 2023 |
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Apr 12, 2023 03:14
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Jamwad Hilder posted:It's been fascinating to watch the Penguins fanbase descend to Canucks Fan levels of pessimism over their first No Playoffs season (maybe! They're not even eliminated yet!) at the end of an era in which they got to watch one of the greatest players of all time win them three championships. I'm not pessimistic I'm exceptionally irritated at the horrific job in filling out the rest of the roster and 'improving' the team Ron Hextall has done. HE'S MADE ME MISS MIKE MATHESON!
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Apr 12, 2023 13:43
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Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:I just meant that he has never hired the worst coach in NHL history. Mike Johnston definitely is worse than both gents you named.
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Apr 12, 2023 17:21
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Rest in piss Ron. Get fired yesterday. From topping the metro to out of the playoffs. Sid and Geno still held up their bit. Great job jaggoff.
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Apr 13, 2023 02:35
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Smith likely gets to 'win' the LD2 spot. The PK will be dire.
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Apr 13, 2023 02:50
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Hextall was probably hired, a long with Burke, to provide vague stability after whatever happened between ownership and GM JR (covering up sexual assault in WBS and who knows what else) occurred extremely abruptly in the early/mid-season. This is prior to FSG involvement as well, and from what I recall, the other names and options bandied about were even less appealing than Burkextall and again taking the ownership relationship being exceedingly poor getting a decision through the powers that be could have also impacted the hiring. I very much hope Ron is fired and takes Burke with him. My lasting impression of Hextall is that he is a coward that is so overwhelmingly conservative he cripples him self and his team. Making a ballsy or gutsy move paralyses him. He over-values his draft picks, under values the players he has, and does not grasp the modern game nor his coach.
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Apr 13, 2023 16:58
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Ginette Reno posted:https://twitter.com/MarkMaddenX/status/1646541950168727557?s=20 Sure whatever lets go.
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Apr 13, 2023 18:31
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Good Soldier Svejk posted:https://twitter.com/NHL_Watcher/status/1646549559466655751?s=20 Going to polish that turd of a resume and source from Nat-Stat, whatever knock off Twitter comments section, and here let's go.
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Apr 13, 2023 23:23
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Eric the Mauve posted:Means nothing if Burke doesn't go as well FSG is rumored to be cleaning the whole front office. Apparently they aren't very impressed with their work. Shocking. Sullivan is an easy fix. Smart GM doesn't give him lovely vets. Problem solved. Add it to the huge pile as to why Hextall is a giant coward and doesn't have the balls to actually stamp authority on the team.
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Apr 14, 2023 02:15
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Eric the Mauve posted:FSG are very impressed with Sullivan and will probably let him pick the new front office, though. Lol they absolutely won't. The Pens are loving small peanuts compared to Liverpool or Sox. Edit: Idk about the Sox but 'Pool is run exceedingly well run, current poor season excluded. Edit 2: didn't watch the game. Too busy with dumb hobby poo poo. But lol the 5v5 goal against came from the right point. 2 of the 3 goals against are considered 'low danger'. Huge lol. Imagine getting outplayed by Mike Hutchinson in goal. I really hope FSG can find some shooting talent....and unfuck the pylons playing d. Kulikov earns a 5v5 - tonight. Great trade Ron. You're G R E A T. Get fired. Petry on the ice for 2 against all situations. Another home run. Edit 3: Selling the farm for Chycrun would be the correct decision if you're going to pretend the team can compete. There is 0 LD1on the roster. Pettersson is a LD2. He should not be playing top pairing minutes. PoJ was ok, but he's maybe 3rd pairing ceiling. If that. Ty Smith is also *maybe* 2nd pairing at best. Hooray. Oh Granlund also a - tonight. rex rabidorum vires fucked around with this message at 03:05 on Apr 14, 2023 |
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Apr 14, 2023 02:58
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The Dirty Burger posted:https://twitter.com/freeagentwally/status/1646656285956292608?s=46&t=2hVb1vPytx9OUpdE0UPz6Q I dunno I thought Dorion had a very good off-season and year. He added a legit all situation top paring defenseman. He off-loaded Murray and his salary. The cap management is....something but he has Stutzle tied up and depending on what happens with Debrincat it's ok. They were, somewhat, in the mix and only 5 points back from the Pens/maybe Buffalo. Ottawa also had the, delightful, combination of awful finishing and poor goaltending. Improve either and they are in mix....improve both and look out.
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Apr 14, 2023 04:35
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Hand Knit posted:How long was Hextall GM? I feel like it was only a very short time but the plague distorted all sense of time so I'm ready to hear it was five years. Hired on February 9th, 2021. So he lasted about 26 months. Best possible outcome thus far. Pleased to see FSG cleaning house so quickly. Edit: now fire Reirden too please. rex rabidorum vires fucked around with this message at 16:31 on Apr 14, 2023 |
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Apr 14, 2023 16:29
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Good Soldier Svejk posted:I probably don't even hate Petry if they keep him on another year, it's not like they're hard up for cap space. Petry is horrific value for his cap space and getting anything for him would be a net benefit.
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Apr 14, 2023 17:35
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Wrong. If I'm feeling up to it I'll take a swing at looking at where the offense went. But my current thought is Jeff Petry. Jeff Petry is the highest paid Penguins defenseman. PoJ ranks 13th amongst NHL defensemen in cost per point and leads the Pens in that category. Letang, Rudwedel, MP, and even Dumo rank higher than Jeff Petry in their 'value'. He's a huge pile of wasted cap space.
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Apr 14, 2023 17:47
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Burkextall was fired. They aren't keeping Dumo.
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Apr 14, 2023 18:08
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Which coaching decisions? I have my issues with his unwillingness to shuffle wingers around at all, but his defensive pairings were optimized about as good as you were going to get out of the players at his disposal. Also Jeff Carter. But as I've reiterated a number of times part of a GMs job is to take the lovely players away from the coach.
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Apr 14, 2023 18:23
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shyduck posted:https://twitter.com/TonyAndrock/status/1646896233036824578?t=0ZbDyptvCnsjSyhyMQ25ag&s=19 Was that source Ron Hextall 'cause if it wasn't dear lord
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Apr 14, 2023 18:43
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Congrats on your new coach Toronto! and if not them.... Congrats on your new coach Vancouver in checks watch 9 months. Ginette Reno posted:Debrincat would be cool but I'm not sure adding another small, non gritty, winger is what the Pens need. Then again he is a pure finisher and outside of Guentzel this team consistently underperforms on expected goals so maybe he would be a fit. Guentzel massively under performed and was quite poor this year vs last. Rust even more so. At 5v5 production/60 goes - Sid, Geno, Zucker, Kapanen, Jake and Bake, Heinen, Rakell, DoC, then Rust. loving way to go Granlund coming in with a sterling .99 pt/60 less than every forward with more than 30 minutes of ice time. More importantly, though, is the Penguins need to dumpster they old and slow as gently caress defense in Rutta, Petry, and god willing Dumoulin for literally anyone that can actually skate and play as a 5 man unit and not this 2 and 3 and 3 and 2 bullshit because everyone is too loving slow to actually cover for each other. I'm also going to be honest and I would straight up trade Guentzel for Debrincat and throw a pick in. The Pens need to get younger and they need to add players with term and cost control. They have very very very few bargaining chips to do so and it is going to be exceptionally difficult to unfuck the disaster Ron managed to put together in 12 months.
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Apr 14, 2023 22:50
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Ginette Reno posted:I'd rather have Guentzel and Debrincat if we're actually trying to win. Guentzel for Debrincat is a bit of a lateral move other than getting younger. You get younger and a RFA player that you can cost control vs Guentzel who is going to be 29 next year and has 1 year left. He's a depreciating asset that should be cashed in on now why there is value before you end up in the Rust situation and overpay to keep a player because there wasn't the foresight to be more efficient and effective with the cap management.
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Apr 15, 2023 02:11
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I'd look at someone like Troy Terry. Way iffier fancies but viewing Guentzel as a rental to then flip at the deadline is also beneficial to Anaheim as well. Edit: Guentzel is viewed as a product of Sid. He also has a giant pile of ENGs which eeehhhhh Edit 2: that's mostly a this year thing. Over his career Jake has 18 ENGs. This season along he had 7 ENGs making up 19.5% of his total goal output ENGs. Questionable. It should also be noted that the Pens blew more leads and multigoal leads than any other team this season 
rex rabidorum vires fucked around with this message at 02:41 on Apr 15, 2023 |
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Apr 15, 2023 02:33
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He may be able to drive offense on his own. Who knows. We've never seen him away from Sid unless Crosby was out of the lineup. I completely agree with the sentiment that Sullivan did very very little to help his own cause. Every game was the same forward core with no changes. GCR was not nearly as productive as other options. Zucker was incredibly productive this year. Barely got a sniff with Sid. There were clear issues with how scoring was distributed all year, but especially with the balance of offense and defense....which Jake Guentzel is a huge liability on the defensive side. Which, imo, is why Sullivan wanted Rust stapled to that line, but if you're having to neuter your offense to cover the defensive deficiency maybe....move someone else there for a better balance? The lack of even trying to experiment with different line combos is a concerning trend with Sullivan. The D pairings shaking out as they did isn't surprising. Dumoulin with anyone not named Letang was an even more gargantuan disaster than he was with Letang....and a huge part of Letang's production drop off was that Dumo became so utterly ineffective at exiting his own zone.
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Apr 15, 2023 04:38
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Good Soldier Svejk posted:It can't be overstated how bad he is now. Like I feel bad for whoever signs him because his body his broken and the two defensive plays he has left are "get pinned to the boards and give up the puck" and "get pressured to shoot the puck up the boards to a player on the opposing team, giving them an in-flight scoring chance" Don't forget the sprawl out on the ice extremely ineffectively and be bypassed then scored on!
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Apr 15, 2023 18:17
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Yes all Buffalo needs is to replicate their 11% all situation shooting on the back of Victor Olofson's career best 17.5% or Skinner's 2nd all time best 14.5 or Tuch's 16.5....a career best by 5%. Dylan Cozen's 14.5 also impressive top 100 shooter in the league impressive. There is a lot to like but the shooting luck from Buffalo this year is also bonkers.
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Apr 16, 2023 00:50
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The Dirty Burger posted:https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/32-thoughts-why-brad-treliving-and-the-flames-agreed-to-part-ways/ This would go against what FSG has already said sooooooo is this coming straight from Stan?
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Apr 18, 2023 00:22
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Because every Flyers broadcast is about highlighting Risto's size and intangibles along with grit and 'wow great play by Risto there using that long reach to break up play!'. And unlike Tony D he isn't as noticably dogshit out of position while being still being incapable at decent defense.
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Apr 19, 2023 15:59
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It was 2 years.
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Apr 20, 2023 14:14
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Don't tell the Dutch that.
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Apr 23, 2023 19:14
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The Jets should definitely retool and they require Jeff Petry.
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Apr 28, 2023 14:10
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Sounds like they need a barn fighter kinda personality and I know just the guy...
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Apr 28, 2023 15:47
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Ginette Reno posted:Filip Hallander signed a 5 year deal in Sweden for some reason. I don't get that. He was one of the Pens top forward prospects (not that that is saying much) and I feel like he would have had a legit shot to make the team next year. None of the Pens 'prospects' aren't actually any good which is why WBS missed the playoffs for the first time in forever and another huge failing of Hextall was not recognizing that and using them to improve the team before anyone else also had that conclusion. It's also another reason why I was, mostly, ambivalent to the Pens trading their first(s) for improving the team now because the cupboard isn't just bare isn't just bare but it's wet and crumbled OSB that's been left outside for years. That said doing something like a 1st plus Sundqivst for RYAN REAVES is awful stupid poo poo as well.
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Apr 29, 2023 00:08
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Ginette Reno posted:https://twitter.com/DannyShireyPGH/status/1652329070720319488?s=20 It's also less than he was making before. Doesn't really move anything, but he looked fine when he was up. Edit: ^^^ Horvat's offense evaporating the moment he landed in the Island is too predictable to be funny. Especially with his powerplay production halving. rex rabidorum vires fucked around with this message at 22:12 on Apr 29, 2023 |
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Apr 29, 2023 22:09
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| # ¿ May 22, 2024 14:01 |
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Simplex posted:Would you believe that Lars Eller, Denis Malgin, Matt Nieto, and Jack Johnson combined for 0 points this postseason? E Rod had 5 in 7 though I temper that a bit with the fact he was playing 20 minutes a night... which is about 3 to 5 more than you would ever want.
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May 1, 2023 15:20
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