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Declan MacManus
Sep 1, 2011

damn i'm really in this bitch

nba stop punching people for two hours challenge (impossible)

Eastern Conference Standings

pre:
1. Milwaukee Bucks (58-24)

2. Boston Celtics (57-25)

3. Philadelphia 76ers (54-28)

4. Cleveland Cavaliers (51-31)

5. New York Knicks (47-35)

6. Brooklyn Nets (45-37)

7. Miami Heat (44-38)

8. Atlanta Hawks (41-41)

9. Toronto Raptors (41-41)

10. Chicago Bulls (40-42)
Western Conference Standings

pre:
1. Denver Nuggets (53-29)

2. Memphis Grizzlies (51-31)

3. Sacramento Kings (48-34)

4. Phoenix Suns (45-37)

5. Los Angeles Clippers (44-38)

6. Golden State Warriors (44-38)

7. Los Angeles Lakers (43-39)

8. Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40)

9. New Orleans Pelicans (42-40)

10. Oklahoma City Thunder (40-42)

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The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf
Lakers will win their 1st round matchup against the Grizz

Edward Mass
Sep 14, 2011

𝅘𝅥𝅮 I wanna go home with the armadillo
Good country music from Amarillo and Abilene
Friendliest people and the prettiest women you've ever seen
𝅘𝅥𝅮
I guess I'll root for Sacramento.

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012
It's been a long 2 years fellas

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


da








bulls

Kilometers Davis
Jul 9, 2007

They begin again

Go Magic

Kilometers Davis
Jul 9, 2007

They begin again

Doing a little test run for next year thanks for reading

Christe Eleison
Feb 1, 2010

lakers please don’t embarrass yourselves

Algund Eenboom
May 4, 2014

It's over! It's over! New jersey is a city of champions once again

temple
Jul 29, 2006

I have actual skeletons in my closet

Bismack Billabongo posted:



I don’t particularly have any beef with the mavs fans here but I am loving this image from my fellow pissy suns fans.

Bismack Billabongo
Oct 9, 2012

Wet
Bless you sweet OP. Kevin durant is undefeated in games he plays as a Sun

ex post facho
Oct 25, 2007
let's go nuggets

yea ok
Jul 27, 2006

https://twitter.com/Kgformvp211/status/1645235542169210880

fart simpson
Jul 2, 2005

DEATH TO AMERICA
:xickos:

Christe Eleison posted:

lakers please don’t embarrass yourselves

i disagree.

fart simpson
Jul 2, 2005

DEATH TO AMERICA
:xickos:

this is the year the celtics return to the finals

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
NBA Playoff Prediction Game!
https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4029458&pagenumber=1#lastpost

Check it out! Win a prize for a charity. Show off how well you know the NBA and try not to fall for my clever trap questions.:slick:

You have until tipoff Tuesday to get play-in predictions in, but the play-in round is kinda chump points so you can also start in the first round and be fine.

karmicknight
Aug 21, 2011
Cavs

temple
Jul 29, 2006

I have actual skeletons in my closet
Boston will defeat the Sacramento Kings and hang banner 18!
https://twitter.com/Banner18Boogie/status/1531112377965547521

Coaaab
Aug 6, 2006

Wish I was there...

Zogo posted:

Bucks/76ers would be the most typical winner. With a miracle the Warriors could replicate the 1995 Rockets.

Nuggets have a terrible defense. Celtics/Grizzlies are good regular season teams but don't have an MVP caliber guy. Kings would be young to win the title.

The big question of the east is Robert Williams III who is putting up strong numbers but has missed a ton of time. If he played the whole season healthy the Celtics would be the clear title favorites. Giannis needs to avoid the FT line (his FT% looks weaker than ever as league average FT% is higher than ever) and stop taking so many 3P shots. IF Harden/Embiid both show up big they have to be a favorite.

The big question of the west is that the 1-13 seeds have an SRS standard deviation that's under two. That's ridiculously close. I haven't checked but that's got to be one of the lowest ever. So there's more reason than ever to be skeptical about seeding. It's too early to tell if this is a blip or will become a long-term trend.
zogo, for each playoff team, what is the closest comparison to finals teams of years' past?

Zogo
Jul 29, 2003

Charlz Guybon posted:

How is Tatum not an MVP calibur guy?

30.1 points a game, 8.8 rebounds, 4.6 assists and plays good defense.

The way I worded that one post wasn't completely clear. Tatum is an MVP caliber guy for the regular season but is lower ranked in WS/48. Almost always the death knell for finals success.

Coaaab posted:

zogo, for each playoff team, what is the closest comparison to finals teams of years' past?

There are a many ways to approach this question. One way to quickly categorize many teams would be to realize that 5 through 8 seeds rarely go to the finals:

-1981 Rockets
-1995 Rockets
-1999 Knicks
-2020 Heat

And 1999/2020 were shortened seasons.

In many respects the 1-4 seeds will be most similar to recent teams because of the style of play and teams having fewer wins. This year no team will reach sixty wins. The last time that happened in a full season was 2001. And the NBA was much different back then.

Zogo
Jul 29, 2003

kalensc posted:

Wouldn't a healthy Robert Williams III still see the Celtics run into the "don't gave an MVP caliber guy" hurdle?

Not critiquing so much as wondering what the threshold is for you to elevate a team beyond needing a true MVP-level star (Pistons 04 must fall in this bucket yea?).

I do think that a 100% healthy RW III is MVP-level. He played 75% of the season last year and had 10 WS. If he played a full season that'd put him ~13.5 WS which would've trailed only Jokic.

Billups in 2004 was overlooked in the midst of Malone and Payton joining the Lakers. He was a top ten WS guy that year.

JackBandit posted:

Zogo do you believe in ws/48 this season? It has some weird results like Kevon looney being number 6 along with a bunch of other mediocre (in relative terms) bigs. Also Jimmy butler has a historically high number. I took a look because I was surprised Tatum didn’t count as an MVP level candidate in your numbers, but he’s number 22 just under onyeku okongwu.

I’m not familiar with the way it’s calculated, it just seems the order is less close to the eye test than usual this year.

Yeah, if you go back to previous seasons there are many rankings like that. So I wouldn't use it to strictly rank players e.g. I don't think Zubac was a top five player in 2020 (or Brian Cardinal a top five guy in 2004). But it's almost impossible for a team to win the title without a highly ranked WS/48 guy. It's just one piece of the puzzle.

If lower ranked WS/48 guys start leading teams to titles then the stat will become deprecated for this purpose.

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
Jaden McDaniels gets to do zero rehab on company time. worst possible time to injure yourself on purpose

Redeye Flight
Mar 26, 2010

God, I'm so tired. What the hell did I post last night?
Once again the Minnesota Timberwolves are, well, here. Can they become more than here? It's going to require getting past a whole fuckload of buzzsaws. Stay tuned.

fart simpson
Jul 2, 2005

DEATH TO AMERICA
:xickos:

Zogo posted:

I do think that a 100% healthy RW III is MVP-level. He played 75% of the season last year and had 10 WS. If he played a full season that'd put him ~13.5 WS which would've trailed only Jokic.

Billups in 2004 was overlooked in the midst of Malone and Payton joining the Lakers. He was a top ten WS guy that year.

Yeah, if you go back to previous seasons there are many rankings like that. So I wouldn't use it to strictly rank players e.g. I don't think Zubac was a top five player in 2020 (or Brian Cardinal a top five guy in 2004). But it's almost impossible for a team to win the title without a highly ranked WS/48 guy. It's just one piece of the puzzle.

If lower ranked WS/48 guys start leading teams to titles then the stat will become deprecated for this purpose.

lol this is why i dont care about advanced stats

Chairchucker
Nov 14, 2006

to ride eternal, shiny and chrome

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2022




Go Cavs, and to a lesser degree go Wolves and go Suns

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
VORP looks like a much more reasonable stat

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2023_advanced.html

Jack's Flow
Jun 6, 2003

Life, friends, is boring
Feeling slightly more positive about GoldenState‘s playoff chances now that Payton and Wiggins are back.

Go, basketball!

TDepressionEarl
Oct 28, 2010


I'm trying to win the World Cup
but I'm dummy thicc
and the clap of my ass cheeks
keeps playing Argentina onside


somebody said warriors i say warriors

klay and donte are looking real clean entering april

Chris James 2
Aug 9, 2012


As always when my team is out of the running in a sport, I will root for the funniest option to happen. On the rare chance that doesn't happen, I will root for the cruelest option

If we get one more day over the next month like whatever the gently caress the Timberwolves called yesterday, it's an extreme success regardless of the champ result

verbal enema
May 23, 2009

onlymarfans.com

funmanguy
Apr 20, 2006

What time is it?
I've always been a big mavs fan but a combo of the 2006 finals and Cuban existing slowly drove me away. I got back into it last year just in time to see the mavs do work after the allstar break. Between the Kyrie trade and Cuban still existing, I am ready to stop caring about specific teams and just root for players.

In Training
Jun 28, 2008

Let's go Nets.

Hand Knit
Oct 24, 2005

Beer Loses more than a game Sunday ...
We lost our Captain, our Teammate, our Friend Kelly Calabro...
Rest in Peace my friend you will be greatly missed..
I see both the Hawks and Raptors are perfectly positioned to continue on at .500.

GoutPatrol
Oct 17, 2009

*Stupid Babby*

Zogo posted:

I don't think Zubac was a top five player in 2020 (or Brian Cardinal a top five guy in 2004).

Nah pretty sure they were

fart simpson
Jul 2, 2005

DEATH TO AMERICA
:xickos:

i like timelord as much as the next celtics fan, but come on, hes not an mvp level player

Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!
From the old thread:

bornbytheriver posted:

Jaden McDaniels is one of my favourite players. It does not surprise me one bit that the drama Minnesota Timberwolves has been immersed in for the past few seasons manifested itself in a super gifted player being unable to contain his emotions. This team is like a ticking bomb, and I sometimes wonder what's going to happen when Ant loses it.
Worth recalling that Jaden was a highly touted player Givony had as a possible #1 overall entering his freshman year before Jaden led the Pac-12 in technical fouls (highlight: slapping the back of an opponent's head at the line before he took a freethrow) and the resulting narrative dropped him all the way down to be available for the Wolves at 28.

Redeye Flight posted:

Once again the Minnesota Timberwolves are, well, here. Can they become more than here? It's going to require getting past a whole fuckload of buzzsaws. Stay tuned.
I wasn't expecting to be proven right so quickly:

Paracaidas posted:

The Wolves have very nearly rid themselves of the curse of the Mark Madsen Three Point Attempts. Just a few more years...
This franchise will, eventually, purge themselves of the resulting bad vibes. Perhaps the 20th anniversary?

Chronicles
Oct 24, 2013

At summer league I bet on the wolves to win it all. Sorry for cursing the season.

Dexo
Aug 15, 2009

A city that was to live by night after the wilderness had passed. A city that was to forge out of steel and blood-red neon its own peculiar wilderness.
Advanced Stats in the NBA are good. But they obviously need to be taken in the context of what the player's role is, and what the stat is telling you.

If someone is a high WS/48 person, it doesn't mean much on it's face other than when they are on the floor they are doing whatever they are doing at a high level and it's leading to team success.

So for someone like Looney, that means when he's on the Floor the Offense that Golden State Runs is very very good, and he is also a good defensive player within that team concept. That's all it's telling you.

It means that Looney is probably a much better player than people think of him at his specific role on that team as him being on the court is such a positive for the Warriors.

It isn't particularly useful for comparative purposes to other players in the league.


I think it's kinda born out that Robert Woods when healthy is an insane boon to how the Celtics want to play and fills the core weakness of theirs defensively whenever he's on the court. So Robert Woods being a high WS/48 is not particularly shocking.

Stagger_Lee
Mar 25, 2009
Tatum is on the low end for a best player on a championship team but I think he crosses that bar, and the Celtics have an unbelievable number of positive players around him. I think they can do it! But I hope Giannis stuffs the ball down their throats instead and Marcus Smart cries forever.

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Coaaab
Aug 6, 2006

Wish I was there...

Jack's Flow posted:

Feeling slightly more positive about GoldenState‘s playoff chances now that Payton and Wiggins are back.

Go, basketball!
I predict GSW/SAC will have at least one person catching a ban here


besides the obvious

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