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Which team had the draft class with the most dawg in ‘em?
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May 2, 2023 01:15
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Ornery and Hornery posted:Which team had the draft class with the most dawg in ‘em? The Eagles selected 2 Dawgs to go with the 3 Dawgs they selected last year. That’s a lot of Dawg.
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May 2, 2023 01:17
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I often wonder how much of these trends that people pick up on draft classes after the fact are an actual intended strategy by the team and how many are just coincidences we see from comparing seven dudes with each other.
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May 2, 2023 01:46
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Ornery and Hornery posted:Which team had the draft class with the most dawg in ‘em? It's all about Frogs this year
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May 2, 2023 02:20
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probably tampa. they fell off toward the end though so maybe some body stoled it.
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May 2, 2023 02:22
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Eagles went all dawg, didn’t they?
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May 2, 2023 02:27
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Doltos posted:I'm cheering so hard for their draft class this year due to the million of idiot draftniks all over the internet giving them F grades. gently caress I hate that Gen Z got into the draft so much Lol why are you mad at Gen z, this is always how the draft has been where if you don't take a player the draft people have mocked to you then you failed.
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May 2, 2023 03:05
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nvm but old guys started that stuff for sure
Cavauro fucked around with this message at 03:12 on May 2, 2023 |
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May 2, 2023 03:10
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Cavauro posted:probably tampa. they fell off toward the end though so maybe some body stoled it. Naw it’s all Bucs https://youtu.be/SADN2OMkmsw
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May 2, 2023 03:26
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really queer Christmas posted:Lol why are you mad at Gen z, this is always how the draft has been where if you don't take a player the draft people have mocked to you then you failed. Dumb draftniks my age and up don't know how to make top 10 worst draft pick youtubes or tiktoks.
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May 2, 2023 04:40
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Draft needery is 100% Gen X and millennial from my personal experience. Hardly anyone I know who's younger than me gets super into it And my dad's generation just reads like the local newspaper for CBS the following Monday.
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May 2, 2023 13:20
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really queer Christmas posted:Lol why are you mad at Gen z, this is always how the draft has been where if you don't take a player the draft people have mocked to you then you failed. I think it's more Gen X/Millenials, but there's definitely a lot more 'You didn't follow the draft algorithm so even if your selections turn out to be hall of famers your draft was a failure' sentiment floating around than there used to be'. Like, people anymore just have a hard time accepting that the draft is a total crapshoot, and all that matters is that you beat the odds and walk away with good players.
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May 2, 2023 14:49
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Black Lighter posted:I think it's more Gen X/Millenials, but there's definitely a lot more 'You didn't follow the draft algorithm so even if your selections turn out to be hall of famers your draft was a failure' sentiment floating around than there used to be'. Like, people anymore just have a hard time accepting that the draft is a total crapshoot, and all that matters is that you beat the odds and walk away with good players. you mean like this https://twitter.com/jacklich10/status/1652693079369867273
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May 2, 2023 14:55
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:you mean like this
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May 2, 2023 14:57
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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:What the everloving poo poo is this supposed to be actually saying? It's saying he has never known the loving touch of grass
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May 2, 2023 14:59
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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:What the everloving poo poo is this supposed to be actually saying? Chiefs get steals, Patriots take huge reaches.
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May 2, 2023 15:00
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It’s the same people that make talking about fantasy so insufferable. “You drafted CMC over Jonathan Taylor?????? Don’t you know CMC ALWAYS gets hurt, all outcomes are already known and obvious, football is a very predictable game. You imbecile, you loving moron.” *last season happens* “Hmm well nevertheless. Just because you got a good result doesn’t mean it was a good process!!!”
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May 2, 2023 15:41
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Black Lighter posted:I think it's more Gen X/Millenials, but there's definitely a lot more 'You didn't follow the draft algorithm so even if your selections turn out to be hall of famers your draft was a failure' sentiment floating around than there used to be'. Like, people anymore just have a hard time accepting that the draft is a total crapshoot, and all that matters is that you beat the odds and walk away with good players. The draft is mainly a crapshoot but not completely a crapshoot. That’s the point. You should apply appropriate strategies to eke out advantages that, in aggregate, will help the franchise win more over the long term.
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May 2, 2023 15:45
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My point is blaming the young is dumb when the true problem are the analytics needs infesting everything because this sport needs to cater to gamblers. This post is brought to you by draftkings, enter code zoomers for 10% off your first bet on the 2024 draft.
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May 2, 2023 17:01
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Analytics are incredibly useful when they can identify differentiators and predict success. I'm not certain any of the draft athleticism analytics are any more useful than, say, 40 time in actually predicting success, and graphing that out seems to be useful only to the people making the graphs.
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May 2, 2023 17:12
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Individual humans are hard to evaluate but positional value is easier to evaluate. So yeah it’s dumb to take rbs high and it’s dumb to take ILBs high. Interior OL are undervalued. Strategies abound. Love 2 draft.
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May 2, 2023 17:16
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Ornery and Hornery posted:Individual humans are hard to evaluate but positional value is easier to evaluate. So yeah it’s dumb to take rbs high and it’s dumb to take ILBs high. Interior OL are undervalued. Strategies abound. If everyone is targeting the same positions early then the best strategy is probably to take really good players at less valued positions rather than over drafting a guy just because he plays a “valuable” position. You can’t really evaluate positional value as distinct from the actual player picked to play the position. A great middle linebacker is more valuable than a middling cornerback. YOLOsubmarine fucked around with this message at 17:47 on May 2, 2023 |
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May 2, 2023 17:25
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Yeah it’s all on sliding scales and weighing probabilities of outcomes. Obviously it’s better to draft LB Luke Kuechly (real, good) in the first than to draft WR Bobby Hill (cartoon, crack shot)
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May 2, 2023 17:33
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it's easy to laugh about that take but John Schneider seems to have taken "draft good players" to be a genuine revelation 
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May 2, 2023 17:38
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YOLOsubmarine posted:If everyone is targeting the same positions early then the best strategy is probably to take really good players at less valued positions rather than over drafting a guy just because he plays a “valuable” position. You can’t really evaluate positional value as distinct from the actual player picked to pay the position. A great middle linebacker is more valuable than a middling cornerback. Yes this is literally moneyball.txt. Obviously you can take it too far but there are inefficiencies to be exploited when everyone is losing their minds over getting something no matter the cost.
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May 2, 2023 17:44
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:you mean like this I love charts that prove they are worthless as soon as you look at them.
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May 2, 2023 17:45
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A huge part of what people think a good draft class is comes down to how close the team's actual board is to the consensus board. Certain teams (Ravens) almost seem to draft off that drat thing and so they have a reputation for being great drafters regardless of how good the class looks two or three years down the road. Draft coverage this close to the actual draft is entertainment not informational. I can't speak for anybody else but the reason I follow the draft so intently is because it's football themed entertainment, not because I expect to be more educated as a result.
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May 2, 2023 17:48
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YOLOsubmarine posted:If everyone is targeting the same positions early then the best strategy is probably to take really good players at less valued positions rather than over drafting a guy just because he plays a “valuable” position. You can’t really evaluate positional value as distinct from the actual player picked to play the position. A great middle linebacker is more valuable than a middling cornerback. Yeah but a great cornerback is more valuable than a great middle linebacker. You need to get what are almost statistical outliers from positions like RB or ILB to dwarf the value of even just a really good starting CB or WR or OT (or QB).
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May 2, 2023 17:53
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There is some value in the draft capital vs. consensus discussion, but the way he is presenting them for previous drafts is silly with no point of reference for actual NFL success. I made something like that last year to let people knee-jerk, offseason fret over how much their team deviated from Daltos' ratings, but it was definitely made to be enjoyed for about one day before it lost all relevance. That dude posting "here's how much people deviated from the consensus for their picks in 2020" is absolutely meaningless in a vacuum without any indicator of how much success each team actually had in those drafts now with the benefit of hindsight. How to quantify that is a whole other can of worms. e: I guess looking at 5 years of each team's actual pick position vs. consensus is some indicator of which teams are more likely to deviate, but even then it's five snapshots of 32 data points which makes no effort to highlight trends. Blowjob Overtime fucked around with this message at 18:00 on May 2, 2023 |
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May 2, 2023 17:57
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The Cleveland Browns are going to be considered geniuses or idiots depending exclusively on how many sandwiches Dawand Jones eats during his rookie deal. The draft is neither an art nor a science.
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May 2, 2023 17:59
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fsif posted:Yeah but a great cornerback is more valuable than a great middle linebacker. You need to get what are almost statistical outliers from positions like RB or ILB to dwarf the value of even just a really good starting CB or WR or OT (or QB). I’m not really sure this is true. A single great CB is easy enough to scheme around if the rest of the defense isn’t solid. Same with a great EDGE. It’s pretty easy for offenses to exploit weak spots in a defense and the short middle ends up being a weak spot for a lot of teams because the guys they have playing there can’t diagnose or cover. Take the Seahawks, they’ve actually had a fair amount of success finding good corners in later rounds but their defense gets destroyed in the run because their linebackers loving suck and either can’t get to the play or run themselves out of it.
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May 2, 2023 18:06
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Eifert Posting posted:The Cleveland Browns are going to be considered geniuses or idiots depending exclusively on how many sandwiches Dawand Jones eats during his rookie deal. Do we even possess the math necessary to calculate that number of sandwiches?
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May 2, 2023 18:06
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Bird in a Blender posted:I love charts that prove they are worthless as soon as you look at them. It's pretty funny because for all the value the Pats shat away with the Cole Strange pick... their class as rookies is at least equal to what the Chiefs got so far? YOLOsubmarine posted:Take the Seahawks, they’ve actually had a fair amount of success finding good corners in later rounds but their defense gets destroyed in the run because their linebackers loving suck and either can’t get to the play or run themselves out of it. At least by DVOA, it looks more like the Seahawks pass D has been middling since the Boom died, and their run D is just random. Maybe they're just truly godawful against slot receivers / TE's / RB's though. Defensive ranks by DVOA: 22 - 17th P, 25th R 21 - 26th P, 8th R 20 - 20th P, 7th R 19- 16th P, 23rd R 18 - 16th P, 16th R 17 -14th P, 16th R
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May 2, 2023 18:16
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Nervous posted:Do we even possess the math necessary to calculate that number of sandwiches? The entire purpose of the ham sandwich theorem
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May 2, 2023 18:29
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Kalli posted:It's pretty funny because for all the value the Pats shat away with the Cole Strange pick... their class as rookies is at least equal to what the Chiefs got so far? Seahawks fans can jump in here as well but their issue with pass defense since the LoB years seems to be that their safeties have kind of sucked in the passing game and they also can’t rush the passer worth a poo poo so they have to do things like sign Jamal Adams to blitz a lot. Corners are usually okay to good, at least the top two, but that doesn’t help when the offense can just shift the stress point to other places. Tariq Woolen was really good this year but it didn’t matter because a) the guys around him in the secondary were less good and b) they couldn’t stop the run at all. Wagner was a huge huge part of what made those LoB defenses work, along with Earl Thomas. Two positions that are currently devalued.
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May 2, 2023 18:30
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YOLOsubmarine posted:I’m not really sure this is true. A single great CB is easy enough to scheme around if the rest of the defense isn’t solid. Same with a great EDGE. It’s pretty easy for offenses to exploit weak spots in a defense and the short middle ends up being a weak spot for a lot of teams because the guys they have playing there can’t diagnose or cover. Defense as a whole is a weak link system. So while I appreciate the thrust of your argument, the specifics don’t carry out. I do think you touched on one of the most important confounding variables of draft analysis though - some coaches loving suck and some are awesome. Basically any qb who goes to Reid is going to look as good as they can be. Certain OL coaches can mold any clay. Pete is decent at building up corners to their potential. So a problem with retrospective draft analysis is that the surrounding environment plays a huge factor. Like are we going to say that a prospect who struggled with a Matt Patricia team would have struggled everywhere? That’s one of the most fun parts about all this discussion imo, so much nurture vs nature 
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May 2, 2023 18:31
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YOLOsubmarine posted:Wagner was a huge huge part of what made those LoB defenses work, along with Earl Thomas. Two positions that are currently devalued. Free safeties are criminally undervalued at the moment. Also there’s been two problems with the Seahawks defense in recent years: 1) they’ve had meh coordinators with schemes that shift every frequently 2) The front office has sucked at getting talent. At any given time over the last ~7 years there’s never been more than like 4 solid defensive starters on the team at any given time. For the later 2010s the defense was at least buoyed a bit by having a HoF Bobby Wagner. Positional relative value doesn’t really matter when most of the defensive players suck regardless of position.
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May 2, 2023 18:36
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Kalli posted:It's pretty funny because for all the value the Pats shat away with the Cole Strange pick... their class as rookies is at least equal to what the Chiefs got so far? How has Strange looked? Is he bad? Do the pats have a decent OL coach since Scar retired?
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May 2, 2023 18:37
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Undervalue linebackers then wonder why the run defense is so bad
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May 2, 2023 18:39
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Metapod posted:Undervalue linebackers then wonder why the run defense is so bad please dont call me out
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May 2, 2023 18:41
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