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abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


quick question:

the setup: keeper league w/ an auction draft. i'm likely keeping tyreek at $28 and christian watson at $15 already.

was offered $19 metcalf for my $29 etienne.

based on everything i know, and all the rankings i can find, and all the nffc results, this appears to be a no-brainer accept for me. like, metcalf goes a round or three earlier than etienne in almost every league from what i can tell, so even if they were priced the same, i should do this. then you throw in that metcalf's cheaper...and it seems like a massive must accept.

what am i missing?

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abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


thanks--accepted.

yea, it's a really weird league. first off, budget's $225, so each dollar has more value. and second, rosters are...odd.

1qb
2rb
3wr
1te
3flex
1superflex

sooooo, yea. always good to have as many top end dudes given how thin rosters can get. last season was my first in the league, and some weeks, it was difficult to find guys who would see at least some snaps.

that $10 should help, no doubt.

abelwingnut fucked around with this message at 18:08 on Jul 26, 2023

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


oh yea, now that i think about it, any preference on keeping $15 london or $15 christian watson? watson seems like the better play to me, but throwing this out there for dissents.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


yes, it is a .25ppr league.

i learned last year that wide receivers are easily the most valuable players in this league. if only i had drafted a halfway decent second qb i'd have been fine. thought i'd be able to find a decent one during the season, but that's didn't pan out. garoppolo going down did me in.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


does it do auction values too?

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


Drunk Nerds posted:

Yes, but it can't do auction values better than just asking in here. I haven't yet figured out how to algorithm the 30 mocks I've done into a static sheet. Maybe I never will.

Just post your settings itt and I'll give 3 max possible ways the market can move and how to recognize and optimize for each of them

cool--thanks.

1qb. 2rb. 3wr, 1te, 3fx, 1superfx, 2def

.25ppr, 4pt passing td, $210 budget.

everything else is pretty standard.

abelwingnut fucked around with this message at 05:49 on Aug 9, 2023

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


Drunk Nerds posted:

How many teams in the league?

12.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


what's the difference between a completion and a reception?

also, thanks!

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


would forgo engram and just wait for kincaid, laporta, hurst, or a few others.

unless you’re getting kelce, andrews, hockenson, or waller, just wait and grab a high upside guy late.

abelwingnut fucked around with this message at 12:26 on Aug 16, 2023

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


Matt Zerella posted:

I would not group Waller in with those guys.

why's that? when healthy, waller's been great. and now with the giants, he's about the only veteran, trustable, nfl-proven receiving threat they have outside of barkley. yes, i'm high on hiatt, but he's still a rookie. also, jones seems like the exact kind of qb who is a tight end away from finding a next level. he's not a deep guy at all. plus, tons of reports out of camp about how in sync jones and waller are. that could just be buzz.

i don't know, the situation seems near-perfect for waller. i'd certainly take him over, like, pitts, where there's a complete lack of track record, an even more questionable qb, and more receiving threats to contend with.

AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:

Engram is a high upside guy, though. He was TE 5 in my TE Prem league. Dougpie P loves his TEs and he will likely have a better year this year with the Urban Meyer stink not ruining the first half of their season.

yea, he does have some upside, but it's limited imo given the number of other receiving threats. he has to contend with ridley, kirk, zay, etienne, and bigsby. there's a lot there for lawrence to throw to. would rather get someone later who has more upside, i suppose.

abelwingnut fucked around with this message at 13:31 on Aug 16, 2023

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


desmond ridder targeted drake london, an incredibly talented receiver, once.

think that tells you all you need to know about the falcons.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


ranbo das posted:

I think Najee would be fine if he didn't have a bottom-2 QB under center. Like seriously if Zach Wilson didn't exist he would be the worst QB in the league, there is zero passing threat.

pickett wasn't even the worst qb who played tonight. would safely say he's bottom 10 at this point, though. maybe bottom 5.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


anyone doing bestballs or anything beyond home leagues?

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


The Big Jesus posted:

I’m in hella underdog best balls. Not much kyren or puka but I was drafting the poo poo out of Ford all summer.

nice. i only managed to get 23 in under my belt, but my best is currently sitting 54th out of 574k or whatever.

obviously going to change a lot, and still like 10 of my teams are in 1st or 2nd in their respective groups. this tournament is nuts, but man, i really love not having to manage a team each week!

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


spears is the probably best rb that's not a starter. if henry ever gets hurt...he's going to be a monster.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


i'd easily drop zay jones out of that crew. potential knee injury, competing for targets against ridley, engram, kirk, etienne, and bigsby, was never all that great.

oh, and speaking of jacksonville, buy lawrence and ridley if you can. lawrence had a bad game, yes, but it's still one game. that team should come together soon and when they do it's going to be loud.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


i would not bid much on harris, but he should be owned for a least another week or two. warren does look a lot better, though.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


a rule of thumb of mine: you should prioritize playing time/targets/security with your starting rb at this point in the season, and outside of a very obvious handcuff to one of your injury-prone starters, you should prioritize talent on your rb bench.

take spears over all of those mediocre backups. the dalvin cooks and herberts of the world aren't going to potentially win you weeks later on, especially in the playoffs weeks. they're just going to get you 5pt or whatever when you need max upside. load up on spears and hope he plays a bigger role and unleashes all hell in like week 16.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


also, wouldn't be too worried about hunt. the browns literally already chose ford over him, so...that should tell you everything. hunt'll spell ford and get like 5 carries/game for now.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


take me you ANIMAL posted:

Ugh, same guy that got Puka last week just picked up Ford this week. I gotta stop tinkering with kickers and TE so I can climb the wire.

and here is the reason you draft a top te, a good def, and a decent kicker. you want these positions to be as set-it-and-forget-it as possible, otherwise they'll slowly nibble you down on waivers/faab and prevent you from bidding on the positions that turn over and matter.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


Floofy posted:

Who’s the best bet for ROS, Ford or K. Williams?

williams. he'll catch more balls than ford, the rams' coaches love him, and he just showed you he can put up big numbers against arguably the best run defense in the league. plus, if kupp comes back, that'll free up even more space for him.

ford looked good and explosive, but i just don't like the team context nearly as much, and i don't think ford will see the passes williams does.

that said, i think there's an argument for ford. the browns love running more than the rams and they have a better o-line, at least last season.

but i definitely am taking williams in this debate.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


aj dillon is just bad. i would rather roster, and do roster, emanuel wilson, who looked very, very good in preseason. easy to see wilson overtaking dillon in the next couple of weeks. might even be able to trade dillon for spears or a good backup, which you should do 1000 times out of 1000.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


DeepDickPizza posted:

Or just wait until waivers clear and grab someone out of FA. 90% of the time, you're going to get who you want or an equivalent replacement since all of those positions are weekly coinflips after the top tier.

sure, you can do that. but i would argue i'm not getting who i want 100% of the time with this method, because the guys i actually want were drafted. the waiver fodder is just that. you're literally trying to pick the best option out of only bad options. i hate that.

at those positions, i'd still just rather take the more proven, more reliable ones in the draft. the points advantage matters on top of the faab saved. streaming def and te is a total nightmare, no matter how you slice it, and i'd rather just have waller/hockenson and phi/sf doing their thing than dealing with it on a weekly basis.

and to be clear, i'm not advocating drafting kelce in the first or andrews in the second or sf in the 10th or whatever. i would not do that at all. i'm just saying draft a top 5 te in the first 6 or so rounds, a top def a round or two before their adp, and maybe tucker a round or two before his adp. these won't kill you at those points in the draft.

roster construction's fun.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


Fast Luck posted:

Kickers are so so so replaceable. It's super rare to me that it's worth riding with a kicker through a bye for example. Most defenses it's the same deal, outside of the top few in a given year they're pretty much interchangeable and it's totally fine to me to cycle them through on free agency.

yea, kickers are generally whatever. i just like having tucker because he has seemed immune to the ebbs and flows of baltimore's offense. there's comfort in that.

and like you said with def, 'outside of the top few'. point is, i want one of those top few, so i do what i can to get it, which usually only requires drafting one a round early. not that big of a deal where they go imo.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


uhh, i would take brian robinson off your hands!

seriously, how on earth is he a sell high candidate?

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


Gobias Ind. posted:

I mean, he almost certainly just had his best game of the year

i mean, maybe, yea. but he still seems like a very, very good running back who has almost no competition playing for a team with a medicore qb who throws him the ball a decent amount. also, let's remember, washington's coaches love him. they wanted him starting over gibson last year, even though he was recovering from a gunshot.

i don't know, i see a decently explosive guy who'll get tons of touches. sure, he might not eclipse last week's game, but he still seems like a great option to get above average stats across the board. doesn't seem crazy to think he's a top 10 rb. i'm not selling that.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


RCarr posted:

Who the hell is spending waiver priority or FAAB on a kicker or defense?

If you’re streaming just pick someone up off free agency.

for defense? i've seen it plenty. just saw jacksonville and kc go for $2 each in a $100 faab league. nffc is about the same percentage this time of year, but can get very aggressive in the playoff weeks naturally.

kicker, less so, but it does happen when you have a juggernaut offense against a cardinals defense or something. definitely less pronounced here than with def.

got to remember, a good defensive showing can net you massive points and sometimes win you a week.

abelwingnut fucked around with this message at 18:19 on Sep 20, 2023

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


i'm stingy with it because let's say you spend $1 each week on a def in a $100 fab league. that's potentially $17 total, $14 for the regular season.

i'd rather draft a def who's expected to be top 3 a round early and put that, let's say $15, into a potential gamechanger at a skill position. and tbh, i'm probably going to spend more than $15, especially if i need a late push. there are always going to be some super juicy matchups where you want to go $2 or $3.

i don't know, would just rather not deal with the headache and save the money and waiver position.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


should absolutely stash kamara.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


there's also the fact cam akers just isn't very good and is now behind an even worse o-line.

just avoid mn's running game at this point.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


MakaVillian posted:

Thursday and Friday practices are the ones that matter. Unless he's limited or out for those 2 don't worry too much

you should worry even less given he's a long-term veteran as well. they take breaks all the time.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


it is usually a very bad sign when there's 'no timetable for their return'. i can't imagine he's back for at least a few weeks.

relatedly, i've got dotson where i can. he looked great in preseason, got a decent amount of use in his limited snaps last week, and kelley is just sort of alright. worth the gamble if you have room.

\/ what other backup qb are currently on waivers?

abelwingnut fucked around with this message at 16:31 on Sep 21, 2023

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


Freezer posted:

Rest of season would you rather have Pierce or Najee?

jesus, that's awful. if you have to keep one, pierce. he has way less competition behind him and should have more playing time security, which maybe allows him to trip into a few td here and there. on the other side, warren looks like he could take over for harris very, very soon.

but...yea, that's bleak.

abelwingnut fucked around with this message at 19:54 on Sep 21, 2023

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


:psyduck:

i can't imagine dropping fields in the first 8 or so weeks barring injury. you made the bed you believed in, and you have to lie in it and see what happens. the talent is there, the plan/team isn't. chill out and give them at least a month to come around.

remember, fields wasn't good until like week 6 last season. plus, he hasn't been that bad this season, at least fantasy-wise. you're not losing weeks because of him.

sure, pick up a backup if you like. but straight dropping him is just...impulsive and irrational.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


why in the wide world of sports would you do that?

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


Floofy posted:

Is Fields a buy low candidate? The fields owner in our league just lost Chubb and I’m thinking of offering Ford to him to try and help my Carr/QB2 situation

a billion percent. him, daniel jones, but especially trevor lawrence.

it's only been two weeks. kinks are still being ironed out between players and coaches, and all three of these guys have shown the ability to accrue massive points.

patience, folks!

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


joe mixon isn't all that great, so no.

i'd be trying to get gibbs or etienne around that range. i also wouldn't be offering metcalf if i could help it.

i'd try moving london for someone a tier lower who's been underperforming. cook for london sounds good to me?

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


yea, i meant james cook.

and joe mixon's last season was heavily skewed by that one game where he scored like 5td. i'm not going to cherrypick it out, but he was pretty blah outside of that.

i mean:



i would say if cook's off the table...could you maybe get brian robinson? maybe someone's looking to sell high on him? i love the guy and think he's going to keep producing. i would maybe try something there.

and if i had to deal metcalf, yea, definitely gibbs or etienne.

abelwingnut fucked around with this message at 18:28 on Sep 23, 2023

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


Kilometers Davis posted:

What are y’all fellow Trevor Lawrence havers thinking? I love the dude. I think he’ll settle in and have a great season. It hasn’t been amazing but I’m not ready to jump ship yet. I did temporarily grab Russ off waivers this weekend even though I never roster a backup QB so that’s something.

i'm trying to buy him everywhere. he's not going to be cheaper than this and he has the setup to be a top 3 qb. problem is, the managers who have him love him as well.

i wouldn't say he's polarizing, but it's one of those situations where if you like him, you LOVE him and are sticking through it. tough to trade for unfortunately.

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abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


Sweeper posted:

If Justin Jefferson is hurt my season (and the Vikings) is toast lol

he did walk off, so...let's hope.

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