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Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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gently caress yeah! New thread!

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Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Silly Burrito posted:

I think it's because I just need to scratch the itch, but I've contemplated starting up a dynasty league in place of my best ball one. I don't think I will (because I'm already in one dynasty league and the other players like the set it and forget it aspect of best ball), but it's tickling the back of my brain.

The one thing I think I'd like to experience is a heavy trash talking league. All of my current leagues are fun, and there is some light hearted ball busting here and there, but for the most part, everyone is chill. That's a good thing, don't get me wrong. I'm not looking for drama, but I guess a little more back and forth interaction would also be fun.

I've had an idea for the last couple of years of creating a SF TEP IDP dynasty league. Unfortunately, I don't think I'll get a chance to do it this year, but I'm hoping to set it up next year. It'll be formatted so that defensive players have equal value to offensive players. It will be the last dynasty league I do because I'm already in too many lol.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Silly Burrito posted:

God bless you if you get it up and going. I tried an IDP league one year and having to keep up with the defensive players and the scoring was just too much for me. Team Defense is enough of a crapshoot by itself, much less breaking it down.

I loved IDP when we had the league. It definitely requires a hardcore love of fantasy football

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:

That Nick Chubb bad data aside, what picks would you guys ask for him in PPR dynasty? I want him off my team because I'm trying to tank so considering his usage last year and his age I think I'd be ok with like.... a third this year and a second next year.

I'm also debating what pick to ask for if I send a guy Cooper Kupp for Marquise Brown.

I would like to think that Stefanski was just trying to go for volume passing to get Watson to knock the rust off this past year since they were expecting to have a weird season anyway. But the Stefanski thing is too on-point.

Dynasty, Kupp and Chubb need to be for a minimum first. First plus a young player is where I move.

He really is, but he is also way more athletic than Lance was on tape against much better competition. He's still the QB3 for me in dynasty, but I get why guys wanna just shoot for upside.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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RCarr posted:

Kupp had arguably the best season EVER by a WR two years ago, and has been amazing for years and years. He should get nothing short of an absolute haul if you trade him.

He's also 30, which limits the return you'll get unless he starts going off.


Drunk Nerds posted:

I actually might kind of care about dynasty now. As I said in the other thread, yesterday I was on the clock in a SF league and Stroud was available. Going back and forth with all the interested owners to engineer the best trade back possible (I traded 1.05 & 2.05 for 1.09 and DJM because all I wanted was a WR and the top 4 were still on the board). That awakened something in me.

I'm going to check this team Poque is talking about, now.

Edit: Holy cow, I need to win now. Or do I need to trade Cook and Henry to a team that needs to win now for some building pieces? Or has that window past?

Am I doing dynasty thoughts right?

I love how I said I'd need a week, so we did a slow draft. The minute I was on the clock, three different people were like "hey man, not sure if you noticed, but you're on the clock" :v:

I SAID I WAS TAKING A WEEK! You fuckers are lucky I got done with my top 15 grades early!

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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SouthShoreSamurai posted:

Absolutely nobody knew.

Except Steve Smith, I suppose.

Pepperidge Farm knew

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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kiimo posted:

Was listening to PFF and apparently they think the 40 times for WR and DB were messed up. Said the splits and 10s and 20s didn't line up with the 40 times and they went so far as to call it "mathematically impossible".

Also they suspect something was going on with the laser. I know Doltos mentioned that as well.

So I looked up my team's WR pick and I recommend you do the same if you have one.






The 40 sticks out like a sore thumb. For some guys like Hyatt or Addison who were dinged in the draft for slower than expected 40 times uhhhh that may be bullshit.

Draft accordingly.

Truth be told, I judge speed on tape. I weigh it against how fast they look compared to what they score.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Ayudo posted:

Are 40 times/RAS even that meaningful at the WR position? The three best WR1 seasons we've seen were from Cooper Kupp and Antonio Brown who's RAS scores are 5 and 3.85 respectively. Even Jerry Rice supposedly ran a 4.6 40.

Sure you have guys like Justin Jefferson, Julio Jones, and Calvin Johnson who measure off the charts, but there are a ton of top WR finishes from guys that did not measure well.

I don't think so. These guys aren't even running in pads, so we don't know that it translates. It is why I look at how a guy looks on tape and then ask myself if his RAS score checks out with that. If it doesn't, I trust what my eyes see.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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RCarr posted:

How are people feeling about Mixon?

Someone offered me a first round pick for him. He’s $34 out of a $250 salary cap in my ppr dynasty league.

If I'm not in a championship window, I probably smash that. Everyone is looking at the windows for that RB class declining. I'd rather sell an RB a bit early than late.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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RCarr posted:

I’m the reigning champ and easily one of the best 3 teams in the league. I still do have Jacobs, Sanders, Stevenson, Penny, and Allgeier though… (And we only HAVE to start 2 rb’s. 2RB/2WR/3FLEX

Mixon is my most expensive player though, and I’d hate to miss my chance to get good value out of him.

How's the rest of your roster look?

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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I think I make the trade. While you can compete this year, with Kyler being out, you are one Tua concussion away from having your season seriously hamstrung. I'd be starting a soft reload with that roster. I'm trading Mixon and even considering shopping McLaurin to see if I can get some assets for this year and next year to put myself in a stronger position for next year.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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MakaVillian posted:

In my 0.5 PPR (TE premium) superflex dynasty league was offered the following

Give:
Miles Sanders
2025 3rd round pick

Get:
Isiah Pacheco
MVS

Now I have little to no interest in MVS but i'm thinking of countering with asking him for Pacheco and Gerald Everett, as my only TE right now is Cole Kmet. I'm obviously giving up the best asset in Sanders but i'm not going to be competing for the next year at least so getting a little younger with an RB who's on a better offence (and who can catch maybe?) seems interesting. Worth noting I currently roster Mahomes and McKinnon so I'd have a lot of Chiefs stock.

Thanks for everyone's help all the time even though I don't contribute as much as I should.

If you're not competing, target future draft capital.

EDIT: To clarify, even Pacheco has limited value to you. Yes, he's a second year back, but by the time you are competing for a championship, he'll be a 4th or 5th year back and the odds of him being one of your top three backs is negligible. He'll be depth on your championship team. Draft picks are where you will get young talent that can break out or leverage into elite players.

Sataere fucked around with this message at 21:47 on May 9, 2023

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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MakaVillian posted:

Ended up not being able to agree on draft picks for Sanders as I was looking for 2 early-mid 2nds (rookie draft) and a youngish player. Not even sure that's enough for Sanders though?

I would be looking for a second this year and next.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Cat Hassler posted:

Never draft Chiefs other than Mahomes and Kelce in redraft

I was surprised in my dynasty drafts that nobody was reaching for Rashee Rice the way they did for Skyy Moore last year. It was very disappointing.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Jingleheimer posted:

I ended up being on the other end of someone tearing their team down for Caleb. I traded 2 2024 1sts, 2 2024 2nds, 1 2025 1st, and 4.03 this year and got back CMC, Davante Adams, and Mark Andrews. And he was kind enough to let me keep 1.03 where I took Bryce Young. I probably only have the second best team after the trade but I can make a good run for it.

That is a solid trade for both teams. You definitely are in your window now

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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In a 1QB league, Dak is fine. He'll be a low end QB1, but you got Bryce in the wings to hopefully upgrade down the line. With those skill positions, it should not matter.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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SF that roster is a lot scarier. You'll need a lot to go right with your quarterbacks

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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MakaVillian posted:

Ended up trading Sanders for my 2024 2nd (which should be early) and Jaylin Hyatt (who I wanted instead of a 2025 2nd).

Edit: Jingleheimer, that is a bonafied blockbuster!

You mean his 2024 second right?

And Hyatt is my favorite receiver in this class. Didn't have my highest grade, just was the most loving fun.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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kiimo posted:

I bought in a little bit with Hyatt with you and Doltos constantly talking him up but the draft gives me doubts and the fact that he ended up on the Giants in the third round means I will be letting someone else take that gamble.

Here is my argument for Hyatt. Sorry for the lovely ad placement, we are still cleaning things up in the offseason and it should look cleaner in a month.

https://footballabsurdity.com/2023/05/09/new-york-giants-2023-fantasy-football-rookie-roundup/

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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kiimo posted:

Your writeup on Rice doesn't mention that he played the season on a broken toe that sapped his speed. Before the broken toe here are his stats




Maryland had a first round and second round DB on their team. He roasted them.

Jesus, how did I miss that. Thanks for pointing that out. I'll be updating that tonight.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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It's round four. Just get your guy and gently caress ADP. Unless there is a fifth round, then I think about it a bit more, but not much.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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kiimo posted:

Your writeup on Rice doesn't mention that he played the season on a broken toe that sapped his speed. Before the broken toe here are his stats




Maryland had a first round and second round DB on their team. He roasted them.

Did a bit of digging. Was hard to find footage of him in 2021. The speed difference was noticeable, even though it was a small sample size. Thanks for pointing this out.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:

This is why I was fishing for feedback to get an idea of what the market was. I also forgot to mention that if I was offering 2.11 I would also have additional later and/or future picks on the table.

Never make the first offer. If he's put him on the block, ask him what he's looking for. The person who sets the first asking price is setting a bad for the negotiations. He might value Henry a lot less than you do, so don't raise your own price.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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kiimo posted:

The guy that took Hendon Hooker in the third round of our dynasty rookie draft realized he had too many QBs and dropped him.


What is a reasonable amount of my $1000 FAB that I should bid on him. I'm feeling 300 but may be overestimating his worth.

dude threw 80 touchdowns in college even if he's older than dirt and coming off an ACL. Detroit has so many weapons.

Why just cut him? You could get a draft pick. I'd 100% have paid a future third for him.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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kiimo posted:

We have a 6 QB position limit, it was an offline draft and he was autodrafting but texted asking for Hooker if he was available. I said okay but then after the draft said you need to drop a QB so I can do the draft manually. After he dropped Hooker I texted him that we could call this a miscommunication but he felt like he intentionally did it and couldn't in good conscious go back on it, which I respect. He chose to drop Hooker over Stetson Bennett who he also drafted.


Still lol someone is about to bid half their season FAB on him, it's wild.

I respect this.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Yeah, I'm grabbing as many shares of Lamar this year as I can. I suspect his price only goes up.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Pain of Mind posted:

Who has more potential as a bottom tier keeper that will likely be dropped before the season starts (we can keep more people now than what is allowed for real):
These would all be at their projected ADP from some fantasy site, but with keepers it tends to give them a little value:

Akers - was ok end of season, I don't know what other RB the Rams have
Michael Carter - Hall handcuff, not sure if Hall will start the season
Eagles D - should be late, actually a potential starter if for some reason another keeper falls through

Leaning Carter just in the chance Hall misses more time than anticipated. Akers probably has more value but will be a higher draft pick.

I lean Akers, even though I have little trust in him. He finished the season strong and has no real competition. McVay likes to run the football.

I like Carter, but I don't think the opportunity is there even if Hall misses part of the season. Izzy Abanikanda was drafted and is probably going to split carries until Hall comes back and when he does come back, there will be a lot of mouths to feed.

Eagles D I have zero interest in just because defensive values historically change significantly year to year.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Pain of Mind posted:

Their round will be based on this years ADP (in August). Carter's ADP is currently undrafted vs a 6th rounder for Akers going by FantasyPros early ADP list. I like Akers better in a bubble, but I am not sure how much value he will have at that round. Unless you had him on your roster you probably missed him looking decent weeks 13-18 last year, so I can picture him dropping quite a bit during the draft. My likely keeper is going to be Breece Hall, so another part of the reason I am leaning Carter is that I will only keep either Akers or Carter if I do not keep Hall, and if I am not keeping Hall it means something is wrong and Carter has more room to start. I am not super concerned about a 5th round rookie eating into his time too much as a potential 16th rounder.

Thanks for the responses, I think it acted as a thinking prompt to give myself a little bit more conviction for the player I drop in August instead of June.


You gotta mention that the compensation for keeping them is tied to current ADP in the original post! That has a huge impact in my decision making. I just keep the guy who costs me the least.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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DeepDickPizza posted:

They did, to be fair. Although my eyes also glazed over the wording at first glance.

They absolutely did and it turns out I'm illiterate!

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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If you knew how many online slapfights I've been getting in over Hyatt. I don't understand how he fell to the third round.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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I can't pull the trigger even knowing it is 3 games. His ADP just doesn't feel worth it.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Pain of Mind posted:

Who would have thought a WR2 to move up a few draft spots would be such a contentious trade. Seemed innocuous and it might implode the league lol. It did go through 5-4 though.

Didn't you say the guy complaining is not even in the league anymore? What the hell is going on here?

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Docjowles posted:

yeah I want some deets :allears:

Some people are so loving weird about fantasy. Last year an old high school buddy spun up a new league that was mostly friends who grew up together and filled in with misc brothers in law and college roommates etc. Buy in was maybe $100? Total bullshit home league, who cares. Toward the deadline a trade went through that very likely favored one side but was still totally reasonable. One guy from the extended family side of the league had a nuclear meltdown over it, sending extremely rude reply-all emails and group texts nonstop to the guy he felt "lost" the trade for being a moron and undermining the integrity of the league. I actually thought he was doing a bit for a while until he made it very clear he really was that mad. He had never met the man he was going to war with, who was best friends with like 80% of the league, so uh yeah trade tantrum guy isn't in the league anymore lol. I assume he still feels like he was in the right and we're a bunch of assholes.

I obsess way too much about fantasy and I don't know what could possibly make me burn bridges with longtime friends and family over an unremarkable goddam fantasy trade. Maybe if the buyin was many thousands of dollars but I also wouldn't get myself into that spot in the first place.

Sometimes you get a moment like this where a person melts down for half a season and when the season ends, it turns out he was incredibly wrong about his rant and the guy he berated for being an idiot wins the league. Those moments are why I still play fantasy football.

In my old work league, I had to almost fight the commish to approve a trade because everyone thought I was being ripped off and I had to point out that I was ripping the other guy off and he said it's still not fair and I yelled NONE OF US KNOWS WHAT WE'RE DOING!

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Even outside the crazy guy, this poo poo feels like why I've quit other leagues. It is also why the leagues I do run I make it clear from the beginning that I alone have veto power on trades and I only veto for collusion. I'd also kick people from a league if they thought it was okay to berate people. Mainly, it is this.

Drunk Nerds posted:

You are trying to logic with crazy, got it.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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EconDad posted:

Solution: no votes on trades. Instant trades. Once I was in a league that did that (SA dynasty) I’ve managed to now only be in leagues that do that. I’d never go back to waiting two days and waiting for weird rationale for group vetoes. Trades are … agreements between the parties trading. Unless it’s obvious collusion or some weird poo poo going on (often hard to show/prove anyway), all trades shouldn’t be group decisions, based on hurt feelings or whatever.

It has never made sense to me that someone decided that people who have a rooting interest in everyone around them failing should have a say in how their opponents run their team. When you actually think about it, it is the dumbest idea ever.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Whoreson Welles posted:

It’s less having a say in how the idiot is running their team and more about not wanting the guy who already has CMC, Chase, and Hurts to somehow convince the idiot to do a bad trade.

Every year we have a guy who gets fleeced and a vocal minority makes a huge stink about it and the end result is always “Well if you accuse him of being that bad at trading then why didn’t you fleece him?”

Nah, I have been in leagues where everyone just vetoes regardless. That is just dumb.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Whoreson Welles posted:

As commish of my league I try to make this argument constantly, but my leaguemates bring up a good point. At what point is it considered “insanely bad”? That’s what makes the push for ditching vetoing tough in most leagues because they kind of have a point. Like yeah CMC for Skyy Moore is horrid, but idk man maybe one of the owners is kiimo.

I’m also just playing devil’s advocate because I try to see reason from the rest of my league, but we’ve also only had one veto in 12 years and the trade voted to pass anyway so it’s not as big of a problem for us. In leagues where there are constant bullshit vetos I could definitely see a better argument for eliminating them.

As commish, if I think a trade is terrible I make both sides justify how the trade makes their team better. Because if you can't justify it, it is collusion.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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I disagree with Higgins over Fields in SF. I get the value you are getting with Higgins, but two top five quarterbacks puts you way ahead of the curve.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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Judgy Fucker posted:

Hey it's me, the fantasy football noob again. Apparently our draft is an auction draft, where everyone has $200, and in a randomized order we each in turn nominate a player to be auctioned. The league commish says it's typical for 1st picks to go for roughly $60, then a drop off from there.

Anyone have any experience with this? Any tips, particularly related to who to nominate and when? I've been trying to reason it out in my head but I keep going in circles and second-guessing myself.

Like, if there's a player I really want, is it wise for me to nominate, wait for someone else? Neither? Does it even matter?

If you go to the Football Absurdity YouTube page, DrunkNerds and I have some auction videos where we break it down and talk strategy.

The name of the game in auction is getting as much of your opponents money out of the pot as possible. I find the $60 players tend to be top five picks. Rest of the first round will be $50. Second round is in the $40-$50 range. Third will be $25-35.

Find the top guys that you hate and nominate them early. I fade ACL guys, so I have been nominating Breece Hall a lot early just to get $30 to $35 out of one of my opponents stacks early. That is how I treat every nomination.

The more money you have relative to your opponents in the middle stages of the draft, the more control you have in getting the best mid tier guys you can.

The thing is that every auction room is different because everyone has a different approach. Some people will spend 75-80% of their budget on 3 top players. Some people like to get two guys they really like for half their budget and fill out the rest of their roster casually. Sone people only want deals. And there's usually one guy who won't spend any money and ends up with a bunch of overpriced 5th and 6th rounders.

Best thing you can do is do some Yahoo mock drafts with live people in that room and see how people draft.

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Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


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RCarr posted:

I like to nominate QB’s early in auction drafts. Sometimes people end up spending way too much for the top ones, especially early.

I hate nominating quarterbacks early in drafts. It never gets as much out of the pot as a running back or wide receiver and you are hurting your chances at getting a great price on an elite talent. The longer a draft goes without a QB being nominated, the better your chance at getting an elite guy at a discount.

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