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Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



looks like this didn't get posted in the lottery thread but here's the video of the actual lottery

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hI8jEtnd4_0

i think the reason they don't do it live beyond it being more easily riggable somehow is because they draw the first pick first and they want to reveal the first pick last for TV

Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 02:40 on May 23, 2023

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WhyteRyce
Dec 30, 2001

They should televise the real drawing in churches and rec centers like a game of bingo

Crazy Ted
Jul 29, 2003

WhyteRyce posted:

They should televise the real drawing in churches and rec centers like a game of bingo
Or maybe the lottery should just be a game of bingo.

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


The draft lottery should be a test of skill among executives, let's say the top pick goes to whoever can answer the most trivia questions about just off the top of my head here the 1992 Lithuanian Olympic team.

morestuff
Aug 2, 2008

You can't stop what's coming
Miller has mono and dropped 13 pounds, and apparently everyone in the league thinks he's a lock at No. 2:

https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/status/1660997867748884481?s=20

Hashtag Banterzone
Dec 8, 2005


Lifetime Winner of the willkill4food Honorary Bad Posting Award in PWM

morestuff posted:

Miller has mono and dropped 13 pounds, and apparently everyone in the league thinks he's a lock at No. 2:

https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/status/1660997867748884481?s=20

If Miller is going to Charlotte then Portland is 110% trading the 3rd pick. Scoot does nothing for this Blazers squad.

TV Zombie
Sep 6, 2011

Burying all the trauma from past nights
Burying my anger in the past

I really hope Dame gets good help in Portland.

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
Amazing comp from a guy on reddit

Amen/Ausar: Homeschooled & unconditionally loved Ben Simmons

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.

Dejan Bimble posted:

Amazing comp from a guy on reddit

Amen/Ausar: Homeschooled & unconditionally loved Ben Simmons

I love it.

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop
Another comp I enjoyed for Scoot: UCLA Baron Davis, pre injury
I see him as a combo of Ant, Cp3, and Bobby Portis in terms of playing with anger and aggression

I love how aggresive scoot is. I love his touch, his handle is great, best ball handler in 10 drafts, he makes shots near the basket from all angles and speeds with any type of contest.
He's in another world as a prospect than miller, getting that he's only 6'2 and all that, skill wise he's worlds above him. and athletically Scoot can soar like Steve Francis. That soar where he's headed toward the basket and suddenly his body is just flying in an arc to the hoop.
He's got that ability to absorb contact like it's not there, like if you try to make scoot get a foul from a charge, Lebron style he will euro around you, and if you go for hard steven adams contact at the rim, he just doesn't flinch and the ball goes in. If Charlotte doesn't take scoot they're sunk. He would fit seamlessly with Lamelo.

I think this year's Toronto Raptors team is the best argument for Scoot. You want a real pg who can really handle the ball and really make shots so your versatile 6'9 wings can do their thing.

Kibner
Oct 21, 2008

Acguy Supremacy
I can absolutely vouch for how bad am offense can look without an abundance of ball handlers that are threats to score from their dribble.

Mean Baby
May 28, 2005

As a Blazer fan and a reader of RealGM forums in the early 2000s, here is my :effort: post on the Blazers. TL;DR #3 or Lillard are getting traded. Regardless, moving up to #3 is going to dramatically change the franchise.

Some background on the Blazers:
    • They started strong this year. They beat the likely champion Nuggets 135-110 a few games into the season. Nurk did a number on Jokic who finished the game with just 9 points. Given how the West shook out this year, it is a shame the Blazers roster fell apart shortly after.
    • Injuries were an issue, particularly at the 5, but it is also apparent that Lillard / Simons backcourt is not going to work. One of them is moving on this summer.
    • Sharpe is a hit. In the last 10 games of the season where they let him loose, he averaged 24 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 turnovers, and 0.4 blocks on 46% shooting with 38% from 3. He was a primary ball handler and isn’t turning 20 until next week. It is unlikely the Blazers trade him unless it is for Embiid. That trade is not going to materialize.
    • There are some long-term pieces which could make end-of-rotation players on decent contracts: Winslow, Little, Eubanks, Keon Johnson, and Watford. Winslow is a very impressive glue guy and Little is a decent 3-and-D bench guy on a cheap contract, but both struggle with injury. Johnson as a 4th scoring combo guard,
    and Eubanks as a 3rd energy giving big man could work. Watford can serve as an 11th man who fills in for Winslow. You'd still like to get a stronger backup big, wing defender, and point guard to fill out the bench depending on the specific scenario.
    • Nurk needs a change of scenery. The Blazers are awful in drop coverage and that is all you can realistically do with Lillard / Nurk. The Blazers need a more versatile / agile center who can give more flexibility with defensive coverages. He doesn't need to be a scoring threat.
    • Jerami Grant is a great fit, if he doesn’t re-sign the Blazers might as well blow it up. By all accounts it is a formality he’ll re-sign.

Lillard’s Sidekick
The archetype here is a player who has or can be the second-best player on a championship team. The trade partner has decided to go in a different direction. This gives Lillard a true #2 to make a run at a championship for the next 3-4 years. They need to be plus defender at least.

Trade: Simons & 3rd pick for an All-NBA player.

Candidates: Jaylen Brown, Mikal Bridges, Pascal Siakam, Anthony Davis, Paul George.

Siakam is most likely. The Raptors have a logjam at that position, both Miller and Scoot would appeal to them, and Simons solves an immediate need at guard. Bridges is the ideal player here. By all accounts, Nets aren’t interested in trading him. It could be a smokescreen on their part. Brown, Davis, and George are all interesting, but unlikely. The 23rd pick and multiple seconds could be added as sweeteners to get the deal over the line. If by chance Embiid becomes available, you throw the kitchen sink at him (Sharpe, multiple future firsts, etc.)

Starting Lineup: Lillard, Sharpe, Siakam, Grant, Nurkic

The O.G. RealGM Trade(s)
The Blazers have been targeting another Raptor, O.G. Anunoby for a while. However, the #3 and Simons is an overpay. But, what about the 11, 23 and Simons? Both the Jazz & Magic have multiple first round picks and might be willing to consolidate their assets to go for either Scoot or Miller. A potential framework (I’d be curious what Magic / Raptor fans think of this):

Trade: 3 & Nurkic for 6, 11, and Carter Jr.
Trade: 11, 23, & Simons for O.G.

As a Blazer, you’d like to hold onto the 6th, but ultimately if you swap 11 and 23 for 6 and a couple seconds, you live with it. Either way, you solve the major hole in the lineup while also looking for player(s) who can contribute as soon as possible. I’m not sure if there is another player like O.G. who might be available. Carter Jr. feels like a better fit on both ends of the floor than Nurk.

Starting Lineup: Lillard, Sharpe, O.G., Grant, Carter Jr.

The Lillard Trade
If Scoot is available and the above options don’t materialize, then it might be time to move on. Lillard said he has no interest in playing with rookies, but the Blazers can’t be held hostage. Is there a trade partner who has the assets, can still be a contender after the trade, and can match salary? Probably not.

The most likely trade partners again appear to be Utah, Orlando, Boston, & Toronto. The Celtics might decide to move on from Brown, but Brown would have to commit to re-signing with Portland. Toronto would have to give up a lot of future draft capital and Scottie Barnes, but Siakam and O.G. are the perfect fit for Lillard. Orlando has the best package for the Blazers in my opinion.

Trade: Isaac, Wagner, Harris, Carter, 6, 11, 1 future pick, 1 swap for Lillard.

The Blazers immediately gain 3 assets to rebuild quickly. Orlando can pair Lillard with Banchero and swing for a free agent to compete in the East. A 3rd team might need to be involved to make the trade work from a salary perspective. I’m not a lawyer. I have no idea what the starting line-up would be, but Sharpe, Scoot, and Wagner would be on it. That team would be a lot of fun.

Use the pick
This is exceedingly unlikely in my opinion. It makes more sense if Miller is available. The trade market for Miller is likely weaker than Scoot's, making a trade less likely. Miller fills the 3 and D need and could be packaged in a trade at the deadline. Lillard would need to be convinced for this to happen. It is very risky.

Maybe you can package Simons and Nurk for Myles Tuner or someone of that ilk. I think the Blazers would probably want a couple of picks the Pacers have this year as a sweetener.

Starting Lineup: Lillard, Sharpe, Miller, Grant, Turner

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
Great writeup, thank you for that.

My first impression of that trade to Orlando for Dame is it's basically sending him from one youth heavy org to another but after that trade it would be mostly vets apart from Paolo.

Dejan Bimble
Mar 24, 2008

we're all black friends
Plaster Town Cop

Mean Baby posted:

As a Blazer fan and a reader of RealGM forums in the early 2000s, here is my :effort: post on the Blazers. TL;DR #3 or Lillard are getting traded. Regardless, moving up to #3 is going to dramatically change the franchise.

• Sharpe is a hit. In the last 10 games of the season where they let him loose, he averaged 24 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 turnovers, and 0.4 blocks on 46% shooting with 38% from 3. He was a primary ball handler and isn’t turning 20 until next week. It is unlikely the Blazers trade him unless it is for Embiid. That trade is not going to materialize.
r

Sharpe is going to be a top sg in the league. I was crying for the pistons to pick him rather than Ivey. still disappointed about it

Mean Baby
May 28, 2005

Rick posted:

Great writeup, thank you for that.

My first impression of that trade to Orlando for Dame is it's basically sending him from one youth heavy org to another but after that trade it would be mostly vets apart from Paolo.

Yeah, even if the Blazers wanted to trade Dame, there isn't a trade that makes sense for all three parties involved. I could see OKC or Utah offering up a ridiculous number of picks and a couple of prospects (Kessler, Williams, Giddey, etc.), but those orgs appear to want to rebuild forever.

Dejan Bimble posted:

Sharpe is going to be a top sg in the league. I was crying for the pistons to pick him rather than Ivey. still disappointed about it

Ivey seems like a decent consolation prize. This season's draft looks like it is a hit despite it being a "weak draft".

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012

Mean Baby posted:

Yeah, even if the Blazers wanted to trade Dame, there isn't a trade that makes sense for all three parties involved. I could see OKC or Utah offering up a ridiculous number of picks and a couple of prospects (Kessler, Williams, Giddey, etc.), but those orgs appear to want to rebuild forever.

Okc 2 year rebuild (went 1-1 in the playin this year)
Utah literally just started their rebuild

Dame isn't a worth anything substantial anymore (old, injury prone, plays no defense)

Mean Baby
May 28, 2005

Metapod posted:

Dame isn't a worth anything substantial anymore (old, injury prone, plays no defense)

Dame was 3rd in scoring, 8th in PER, 10th in Win Shares, 10th VORP this season and played more games than Kevin Durant. Teams don't hunt a mismatch on Dame like they do Curry. Dame is worth a lot.

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012

Mean Baby posted:

Dame was 3rd in scoring, 8th in PER, 10th in Win Shares, 10th VORP this season and played more games than Kevin Durant. Teams don't hunt a mismatch on Dame like they do Curry. Dame is worth a lot.

Hes a 33 year old small guard who hasn't played more than 60 games in 2 years, has never done anything offball or on defense, and has an enormous cap hit. On top of that there's a new cba that everyone is very confused about how it will impact trading picks going forward. KD and Curry are way better players than Dame so not sure what they have to do with anything

Mean Baby
May 28, 2005

Metapod posted:

Hes a 33 year old small guard who hasn't played more than 60 games in 2 years, has never done anything offball or on defense, and has an enormous cap hit. On top of that there's a new cba that everyone is very confused about how it will impact trading picks going forward. KD and Curry are way better players than Dame so not sure what they have to do with anything

Odd, because in every advanced metric measuring overall contribution as well as games played, Dame outperformed both Durant & Curry.

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012
Kevin Durant played 48 games this year and won 34 which is more than Portland did all year. Feel like someone who really does contribute more than KD would win that battle

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Metapod posted:

Hes a 33 year old small guard who hasn't played more than 60 games in 2 years, has never done anything offball or on defense, and has an enormous cap hit. On top of that there's a new cba that everyone is very confused about how it will impact trading picks going forward. KD and Curry are way better players than Dame so not sure what they have to do with anything

New CBA didn't impact anything on trading picks that are less than 7 years out and starts 2024-25. That wouldn't impact anything on the next trade market.

Lockback fucked around with this message at 14:04 on May 24, 2023

Hashtag Banterzone
Dec 8, 2005


Lifetime Winner of the willkill4food Honorary Bad Posting Award in PWM
Metapod is like one of those Japanese soldiers on a remote island still fighting the good fight 20 years later.

Someone DM Russ and ask him to confirm that the war is over.

I'm skeptical of the Blazers being able to land a star wing, but there's always a chance.

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012

Lockback posted:

New CBA didn't impact anything on trading picks that are less than 7 years out and starts 2024-25. That wouldn't impact anything on the next trade market.

It will absolutely still impact how picks are traded for 2023-24. How much are teams willing to trade assets that will effect what they'll be able to do in the next cba? Especially when you're trading for some like Dame who will be paid 50 million and likely put you in the 2nd apron

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Metapod posted:

It will absolutely still impact how picks are traded for 2023-24. How much are teams willing to trade assets that will effect what they'll be able to do in the next cba? Especially when you're trading for some like Dame who will be paid 50 million and likely put you in the 2nd apron

The only picks that could potentially be impacted would literally be in the 2030s. If you're concerned about Dame's salary he will literally be retired by the time any frozen picks would happen. No one can trade a 2033 pick anyway, so I am not sure what impact you think would happen this year?

Metapod
Mar 18, 2012

Lockback posted:

The only picks that could potentially be impacted would literally be in the 2030s. If you're concerned about Dame's salary he will literally be retired by the time any frozen picks would happen. No one can trade a 2033 pick anyway, so I am not sure what impact you think would happen this year?

If you make a trade you are effectively saying we are going all in on trying to win a finals. The impact I think this will have is teams won't do these massive pick exchanges for awhile because it effectively ruins your ability to improve your team. Now would they still do this for a guy like kd who makes your team an instant contender yes probably but we aren't talking about that tier of player.

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



https://twitter.com/TheTyJager/status/1661418280123260928?s=20

Zach Collins, Dougie McBuckets, and like 10 second round picks for #3 who says no????

Papercut
Aug 24, 2005

The quickest substitution in the history of the NBA

Shear Modulus posted:

https://twitter.com/TheTyJager/status/1661418280123260928?s=20

Zach Collins, Dougie McBuckets, and like 10 second round picks for #3 who says no????

You cannot foist Zach Collins on us again

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Papercut posted:

You cannot foist Zach Collins on us again

Does Portland Leg flare back up again if they get traded back?

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
drat this is not a deep year for PGs. So they're trying to get Anthony Black maybe?

Blind Pineapple
Oct 27, 2010

For The Perfect Fruit 'n' Kaman

1 part gin
1 part pomegranate syrup
Fill with pineapple juice
Serve over crushed ice

College Slice
It's the right idea for the Spurs to understand they aren't in "win now" mode even with Wemby and trying to develop him with Scoot or Amen, but I don't know what assets they have to move the other top 4 teams off their picks. Poeltl and McBuckets don't move the needle for anyone and I'm not sure the Spurs are quite ready to commit to moving Keldon or Vassell and accepting a lesser NBA-level player in return.

morestuff
Aug 2, 2008

You can't stop what's coming

Blind Pineapple posted:

It's the right idea for the Spurs to understand they aren't in "win now" mode even with Wemby and trying to develop him with Scoot or Amen, but I don't know what assets they have to move the other top 4 teams off their picks. Poeltl and McBuckets don't move the needle for anyone and I'm not sure the Spurs are quite ready to commit to moving Keldon or Vassell and accepting a lesser NBA-level player in return.

It just says they want another first, it doesn't have to be a top five pick

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Wonder what Josh Primo is up to these days

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



The spurs are probably trying to talk teams into giving them a pick in exchange for absorbing salary but the only team that really needs to dump salary is probably dallas

Calidus
Oct 31, 2011

Stand back I'm going to try science!
Spurs have 4 extra picks over next few years they have protections on most of them but still.

abuse culture.
Sep 8, 2004

Blind Pineapple posted:

It's the right idea for the Spurs to understand they aren't in "win now" mode even with Wemby and trying to develop him with Scoot or Amen, but I don't know what assets they have to move the other top 4 teams off their picks. Poeltl and McBuckets don't move the needle for anyone and I'm not sure the Spurs are quite ready to commit to moving Keldon or Vassell and accepting a lesser NBA-level player in return.

Jakob Poeltl plays for the Raptors

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



abuse culture. posted:

Jakob Poeltl plays for the Raptors

He's a UFA

feller
Jul 5, 2006



Still gonna be pretty hard for the spurs to trade him

Blind Pineapple
Oct 27, 2010

For The Perfect Fruit 'n' Kaman

1 part gin
1 part pomegranate syrup
Fill with pineapple juice
Serve over crushed ice

College Slice
I totally forgot about that midseason trade. I guess they have even fewer pieces to trade for a good pick, and I don't see the point of trading for mid to late first if the goal is to find a future PG in this draft.

Kibner
Oct 21, 2008

Acguy Supremacy

Blind Pineapple posted:

I totally forgot about that midseason trade. I guess they have even fewer pieces to trade for a good pick, and I don't see the point of trading for mid to late first if the goal is to find a future PG in this draft.

I was reading it as two separate goals. Get another first and acquire some kind of replacement level PG just to ensure the young guys don't struggle too much.

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Mean Baby
May 28, 2005

Wouldn’t VanVleet work!

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