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Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling
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Ultra Carp


After seven long years of waiting, we are once again witnesses to one of the most entertaining and depressing spectacles in American politics: a (potentially) competitive Republican Primary. All across the country, men and women with spectacularly lovely opinions are looking in the mirror and saying to themselves “Yes, I could be President!” But only one will win the primary, and for the rest, their hopes, dreams, and those six long and grueling months of pretending to like Iowans will all come to naught. This thread is dedicated towards following their trials and tribulations, but mostly laughing at how most of these morons think they actually have a chance in hell of winning anything, much less the White House.

Let's meet the hopefuls, starting with those polling in double digits who might actually have a chance:

Donald Trump

Polling Average: 53.7%*
Age: 76
Credentials: Former President of the United States, Real Estate magnate, huckster

Back and shitter than ever, Trump is the current frontrunner, by far, of the Republican primary. In spite of the growing frustration of what's left of the Republican establishment, the terrible performances of his chosen candidates in 2022, and the looming possibility he might be watching the election results from inside a jail cell, Trump still remains a dominant figure in Republican politics. He is the man to beat, but retains the advantage that everyone else is afraid to take a swing—lest they alienate Trump's legion of followers, most of whom are more loyal to Trump personally than to the Republican party. What may be more likely is that Trump is finally brought down by the mountain of indictments against him. But he's managed to dodge consequences his entire life, and there's no guarantee that's going to stop now.

But hey, maybe we'll get lucky, his age will finally catch up with him, and the bastard will simply drop dead. Which would certainly benefit our next candidate!

Ron DeSantis

Polling Average: 21.3%
Age: 44
Credentials: Governor of Florida, Former Member of the US House of Representatives from Florida, Lt. Commander US Navy (Ret)

Long before he announced, everyone knew DeSantis was running. For those disillusioned with Trump, he was the great Republican hope: The man who'd won a crushing reelection victory in a swing state, who'd carefully cultivated a tough image of fighting libs and Getting Things Done (TM), the mythical competent fascist who could accomplish all kinds of awful things with the power that Trump had so foolishly squandered.

And then his campaign actually began, and it turned out the “competent” part may have been overstated. Despite entering the year with strong support and polling well against the disgraced ex-president, DeSantis has managed to squander most of his advantages thanks to a string of exceptionally poor decisions and overall bad strategy, and is currently a distant second behind Trump. There's always a chance he may come back, and stands a strong chance of becoming the frontrunner if Trump is taken out of the race. But unless something major changes, DeSantis' campaign is clearly going to fail.

Polling in whole numbers:

Mike Pence

Polling Average: 5.4%
Age: 64
Credentials: Former Vice President of the United States, Former Governor of Indiana, Former Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Indiana, Rush Limbaugh knockoff.

Despite a not-insignificant of the Republican Primary electorate having called for him to be hanged a little over two years ago, Mike Pence has decided to throw his own hat in the ring. Though hated by the Trump die-hards for failing to help Trump's coup, Pence allegedly thinks that his old-style conservative rhetoric and hardcore evangelicalism will win him votes in Iowa. Good luck with that, Mike.

Nikki Haley

Polling Average: 4.5%
Age: 51
Credentials: Former US Ambassador to the United Nations, Former Governor of South Carolina, Former Member of the South Carolina House of Representatives

Though one of the earliest candidates to file, Haley hasn't made much headway so far, and has done little to set herself apart from her fellow “Not-Trump” candidates. Though spectacularly unlikely to come out on top, expect to see her as a top VP candidate once the primary has concluded.

Vivek Ramaswamy

Polling Average: 3.4%
Age: 37
Credentials: $630 million net worth, Biotech CEO, got Don Lemon fired

This cycle's version of the candidate with too much money and not enough sense. Vivek has spent the last few years crying about how woke everything is as a cable news guest, and has since decided to springboard that experience into a longshot campaign. His campaign platform is a delightfully insane document, filled with policies like “raise the voting age to 25” and “Make all federal employees retire after 8 years,” along with less funny proposals like banning gender-affirming care for minors and supporting a 6 week abortion ban.

Tim Scott

Polling Average: 2.2%
Age: 57
Credentials: United States Senator from South Carolina, Former Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from South Carolina, Former Member of the South Carolina House of Representatives, Former Member of the Charleston County Council

Scott's decision to run threw many political analysts for a loop. An unremarkable Republican Senator in terms of policy and rhetoric, Scott currently holds a safe role in the Republican Senate leadership and didn't seem the type to embark upon a long-shot Presidential run. Some (me) have speculated he's angling to raise his profile to be picked as Trump's VP nominee.

Asa Hutchinson

Age: 57
Credentials: Former Governor of Arkansas, Former Under Secretary of Homeland Security for Border and Transportation Security, Former Administrator of the Drug Enforcement Administration, Former Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Arkansas, Former Chair of the Arkansas Republican Party, Former United States Attorney

To give Hutchinson the proper respect he deserves, I will describe his campaign using the number of characters corresponding to the percentage that he's currently polling at, as of the time of time I write this:

F

Other declared or about to declare candidates to be added once 538 bothers to include them in its polling averages:

Chris Christie
Larry Elder
Doug Burgum

Still deciding how much they like Iowans:

John Bolton
Will Hurd
Rick Perry
Kristi Noem
Glenn Youngkin

Declined to get involved in this shitshow:

Greg Abbott
Marsha Blackburn
Tucker Carlson
Liz Cheney
Tom Cotton
Dan Crenshaw,
Ted Cruz
Joni Ernst
Josh Hawley
Larry Hogan
Brian Kemp
Adam Kinzinger,
Dan Patrick
Rand Paul
Mike Pompeo
Mitt Romney
Marco Rubio
Paul Ryan
Rick Scott
Chris Sununu
Donald Trump Jr
Ivanka Trump
Scott Walker


*Polling averages taken from 538, current as of June 6th, 2023

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Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling
1-800-GAMBLER


Ultra Carp
MAJOR DATES:

Thu, Aug 10, 2023 – Sun, Aug 20, 2023: Iowa State Fair, along with the Iowa Straw Poll

Wednesday, August 23rd: First Republican Primary Debate

Monday, October 16th, 2023: Nevada caucus filing deadline

Monday, January 8th: Iowa Caucus.

Other dates to be added when I get around to it.

Acebuckeye13 fucked around with this message at 06:40 on Jun 7, 2023

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
Scott is all the more perplexing because he has a really solid power structure in South Carolina, having built a machine that combines transactional paleoconservative business interests and the backing of the state megachurches, particularly Seacoast, which has major outlets and financial holdings in every major city in the state. Scott has tempered his position by taking a moderate (for Republican red state standards) position on police reform, which isn't going to help him at the national level. He's not a very charismatic speaker, but he's good at conventional politics, which has made his entry all the stranger- he's horribly bobbled abortion policy questions, despite their being an obvious sticking point for him.

One possibility is that Scott is being encouraged by the least chuddy, most money-focused elements of the evangelical christianity industry.

edit: since it's relevant to this candidate, here's a slightly revised post about the business model of Seacoast and its scale of influence that I made a few years back:

quote:

The below is the result of some googling I did in 2018 when someone asked me to try to identify who was backing confederate apologist groups in SC.

Seacoast is a megachurch located in South Carolina. It's popular across all income levels and races, but principally caters to the comfortably wealthy and white. It forms a major locus of public, political and social thought among Charleston voters, particularly politically influential exurbs. Republican Senator Tim Scott is a prominent member of the church. It is fundamentalist and very conservative, but they don't burn crosses - they inspire brand loyalty. (This whole vein of research was a dead end, btw- there was no sign that the church was associated with the revanchist group I was looking at).

Here's a picture of their original "campus". It seats about 1,300, but they're expanding it to seat 2,400 soon- and they have a a dozen other campuses of the same and larger sizes around every major city in the state, as well as a massive telechurch program.



For scale, that footprint is about 2000 feet long, according to google maps. There's a main street to the immediate north, and a weird side entrance in the west, going...somewhere, from the parking area. What is that? Well...



All of the yellow areas are areas I know are currently owned or under negotiation for purchase by Seacoast.

That street leading out of their parking lot? It goes directly to a shopping center, with an immediately joining apartment complex behind it to the South. The shopping center is owned by Seacoast, managed through an entity called "American Asset Corporation". The apartment complex (which has only exits going past the church and shopping center) is also owned by Seacoast.

On the north side of the main road, there is a more disjointed area of commercial offices, law firms, and fast food joints. A Chik-fil-a just moved in (of course). Seacoast owns all of that property too, aside from some small detached dwellings owned by African American families. These families have lived in the area since before Seacoast existed, and are now hoping to sell their properties to the church for enough to greatly improve their situation. Seacoast is beginning to close the properties in this northern section; they are consolidating them into a new shopping center.

You may have noticed a yellow line going out of the map to the northwest. What is that? Well...



That triangle in yellow is a residential development connected to all the neighboring properties by a narrow road, called "Seacoast Parkway". You might be wondering why it's called that. Seacoast used to own it, and were going to build a 6,000 capacity megachurch there, along with their own planned community with residential and commercial development. The local government blocked it (the whole thing has one narrow road in or out, which, well, it's an area that sees frequent, massive flooding- you do the math). Seacoast sold the real estate to another developer instead, who still built a neighborhood there. (there's another property at the northwest corner there I'm excluding for the moment).

You may have noticed the massive industrial looking-thing in the Southwest. Well...no, that's the port of Charleston. I don't think Seacoast owns that. But...



I believe Seacoast currently or previously has had controlling interests in all of the areas in blue. This includes most commercial properties serving the port. It also includes the residential properties, where I believe the church used to own the property, and now maintain control through an agreement with the developer that controls the HOA. This includes the residential areas in the northwest corner, which are, still, cut off from the rest of the area by floodplains and is connected by a single, two lane road that goes under the highway, in a flood zone, then loops through the rest of the office and commercial properties to connect to an escape route. It may also include the private schools and community center that are attached to the central north neighborhood, which is wealthy and has a heavy Seacoast attendee population.

I don't have public news coverage of these forms of control or purchase like I do the things in yellow, but it would explain the rate and form of land development in the area...over the course of at least 30 years, as part of a planned development and investment approach that would have occurred at the same time that Seacoast was formed. Seacoast has another, similar campus set up near the other major port in the Charleston area. This is probably not a coincidence. Seacoast attendees wake up in houses built on property sold to them by Seacoast, in neighborhoods indirectly controlled by a Seacoast property, go to Seacoast services in cars sold to them by other Seacoast members, and afterwards they eat at a Chik-fil-a that leases a footprint from Seacoast and shop in retail stores that are also leasing from a Seacoast holding. This is the sort of business plan that the genuinely sophisticated megachurches develop before they even incorporate their first holding company.

All of this is to say that retail should always be understood partially in terms of real estate ownership, because that scale of institutional investment and control will gladly set up retail as a part of a much, much longer-term scheme. Seacoast and its owners are enthusiastic amateurs compared to actual, dedicated real estate developers.

Less consolidation has occurred than I expected in the years since I wrote that post, probably due to covid. Nonetheless, commercial development has continued and Seacoast now has a separate office complex there to run its network. With all this said, Seacoast is a politically powerful entity in South Carolina. It gives Scott no real leverage nationally.

Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 04:04 on Jun 7, 2023

DarklyDreaming
Apr 4, 2009

Fun scary

Discendo Vox posted:

Less consolidation has occurred than I expected in the years since I wrote that post, probably due to covid. Nonetheless, commercial development has continued and Seacoast now has a separate office complex there to run its network. With all this said, Seacoast is a politically powerful entity in South Carolina. It gives Scott no real leverage nationally.

Hopeless candidates run all the time to raise their profile on a national level, especially under the GOP where spectacle is everything. It's a good way to get appointed Secretary of Something or Other by the winner

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.

DarklyDreaming posted:

Hopeless candidates run all the time to raise their profile on a national level, especially under the GOP where spectacle is everything. It's a good way to get appointed Secretary of Something or Other by the winner

Scott isn't someone who's ever pursued that, and he decided that his current term would be his last one back in 2019. He's got no specific background or positioning for any particular cabinet position, either- and he's unlikely to get anything under Trump, who he's very publicly clashed with.

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling
1-800-GAMBLER


Ultra Carp
e: Quote is not edit!

For an actual post: Scott is definitely a weird candidate to be running for President. Obviously, we've all heard the phrase "Every Senator looks in the mirror and sees a future President," but Scott's never shown that kind of ambition — hell, he didn't even run for his own Senate seat in the first place, he was appointed by Nikki Haley back in 2010. His campaign also hasn't shown any kind of unique edge to it, it's all pretty bog-standard Republican policies wrapped in a veil of "respectable" conservatism. It's a very weird campaign for these times.

Acebuckeye13 fucked around with this message at 06:45 on Jun 7, 2023

pencilhands
Aug 20, 2022

Hell yes I’m so ready for this

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
Another fun fact about Scott: he's never married or publicly dated and is thus as a part of his expressed Christian beliefs, avowedly celibate. Somehow (probably because he pisses off far fewer people in SC politics) I've never heard the sort of rumormongering around him that constantly swarms around Lindsey Graham, the other SC senator. I have to imagine that if Scott starts showing any promise, his personal life's going to go under a microscope in that regard.

pencilhands
Aug 20, 2022

Serious question here. Why when famous men live such a lifestyle is the assumption always that they’re gay, rather than bad with women?

Bel Shazar
Sep 14, 2012

pencilhands posted:

Serious question here. Why when famous men live such a lifestyle is the assumption always that they’re gay, rather than bad with women?

Because no matter how bad you are, if you''re famous and/or powerful somebody is going to gently caress you.

Sax Mortar
Aug 24, 2004

pencilhands posted:

Serious question here. Why when famous men live such a lifestyle is the assumption always that they’re gay, rather than bad with women?

I think because it can be easier to believe that someone is gay and trying to hide it (especially if they've got that R next to their name) than capable enough to become a senator without ever managing even a short term relationship.


I mean another possibility is that the person falls somewhere else in the sexuality world, maybe just asexual and having no interest in a love life at all. There should be no problem with any of those, but politics gonna be stupid (because people are stupid) about it.

drawkcab si eman ym
Jan 2, 2006

fwiw, a newsnation/decisiondeskHQ 1,000 rv poll showed Pence (15%) Scott (13%), and Haley (12%) as the most popular choices to be Trump's 2024 running mate.
(https://www.newsnationnow.com/polls/newsnation-poll-economy-schools/)

538 has a 32.5 point national average disadvantage for DeSantis (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/), and interestingly I think this is because your average rural non-college white Trump voter wants a candidate who agrees with their views rather than a candidate who is more electable.

Ironically, this was the case in 2016 and Trump ended up winning in one of the biggest political upsets in history.
(https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republican-primary-electability/)

Timmy Age 6
Jul 23, 2011

Lobster says "mrow?"

Ramrod XTreme
Mike Pence's campaign logo looks like something for a brand of frozen peas.

Sax Mortar
Aug 24, 2004

Timmy Age 6 posted:

Mike Pence's campaign logo looks like something for a brand of frozen peas.


Mike Pence Mayo, because aioli is too foreign spicy.

Old Surly
Dec 8, 2004

and all of your troubles are solved and gone

Timmy Age 6 posted:

Mike Pence's campaign logo looks like something for a brand of frozen peas.


Big soft serve custard vibes

Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo
I mean, I assume that vibe is what Pence supporters are wanting

Also, is he really trying or is this a pilgrimage on his knees to getting his old job back?

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Old Surly posted:

Big soft serve custard vibes

my man selling necco wafers next to an organ grinder

BiggerBoat
Sep 26, 2007

Don't you tell me my business again.
I like that you started this thread, Acebuckeye13, and it will be fun to watch these morons try to out patriot each other.

But the fact that there are so many GOP candidates (already), IMO, basically hands the nom to Trump. Whether he's indicted or not. There's not going to be much suspense here is what I'm saying. It's like a Rocky movie at this point.

Aggressive Nap
Jun 9, 2023

Timmy Age 6 posted:

Mike Pence's campaign logo looks like something for a brand of frozen peas.


Looks like a petroleum corporation to me

samcarsten
Sep 13, 2022

by vyelkin

Timmy Age 6 posted:

Mike Pence's campaign logo looks like something for a brand of frozen peas.


it's like i can feel 1988

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

I hope we get a debate between Trump and Christie and it's just 30 minutes of fat jokes.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

trump can tailor his set to the audience with the aplomb of a grizzled standup comic

Caros
May 14, 2008

Cpt_Obvious posted:

I hope we get a debate between Trump and Christie and it's just 30 minutes of fat jokes.

I'm mostly stoked for Christie to just go full bloodsports on someone again like he did to Rubio in 2015.

It didn't help his campaign at all, but watching him just strangle Rubio's presidential dreams to death on stage is perhaps my fondest memory of that whole poo poo show.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqshYG4qvT4

Caros fucked around with this message at 01:12 on Jun 11, 2023

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

Caros posted:

I'm mostly stoked for Christie to just go full bloodsports on someone again like he did to Rubio in 2015.

It didn't help his campaign at all, but watching him just strangle Rubio's presidential dreams to death on stage is perhaps my fondest memory of that whole poo poo show.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqshYG4qvT4

Rubio isn’t even running now, right?

Caros
May 14, 2008

lilljonas posted:

Rubio isn’t even running now, right?

Let's dispense with this idea that Marco Rubio knows if he is running for president. He knows exactly what he is doing.

Rubio had one (1) cycle where he could credibly run for president, and Fat Reek torpedo'd it in glorious fashion.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Reek Reek, it rhymes with (rear end) cheek.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1667938913086853121?s=20

Bellmaker
Oct 18, 2008

Chapter DOOF




Makes sense, that 27% not considering DeSantis has consistently been Trump’s floor.

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

It will be a wonderful freakshow. I am surprised anyone would try to have a go when Trump is running.

Pants Donkey
Nov 13, 2011

Budzilla posted:

It will be a wonderful freakshow. I am surprised anyone would try to have a go when Trump is running.
well, I’d first keep in mind that a lot of no-hopers are running more for a VP pick than anything.

Second, if Trump has to drop out, then this primary could get wild. I mean, it could also be the more boring path of everyone falling behind DeSantis, but it’s hard to say. But Trump has a lot of factors that could kneecap him: there’s the obvious indictments that keep piling up, there’s his age, and remember back in November his groupies were showing signs of wavering loyalty thanks to him being obnoxious about DeSantis and NFTs.

I mean, in 2015 a lot of people had Trump pegged as a doomed primary candidate. Lots of unexpected poo poo happens during an election.

skeleton warrior
Nov 12, 2016


On top of all that Pants Donkey said, I wouldn't be surprised if several of the people running are actually setting up for 2028, in a climate where Trump is more likely to be dead and/or disgraced and the Democrats are either running Harris or someone new to the national stage. They'll run for a bit, do everything they can to be non-confrontational with Trump (because they'll want his supporters behind him in four years), and 'gracefully withdraw' after achieving the high of a second or third place result in a few states to prove they have appeal to future bankrollers. The GOP has been pretty supportive of also-rans later getting the nom (McCain from 2000 into 2008; Romney from 2008 into 2012).

This is one of the places where DeSantis is hosed, because he's the annointed "not Trump", and so he's both in a confrontational role, and the expectations around him are much higher. Tim Scott can gently caress around, withdraw before New Hampshire, and still look viable for 2028. If DeSantis doesn't win at least a few states through Super Tuesday, he won't look viable in 2028 at all, and DeSantis is not on a trajectory to win any states.

Edit: Honestly, now that I think about it, DeSantis' clearly doomed candidacy might be pulling more people into the race than would happen otherwise, because no one else has to risk being the "major contender" and actually run a viable campaign

skeleton warrior fucked around with this message at 16:01 on Jun 13, 2023

BiggerBoat
Sep 26, 2007

Don't you tell me my business again.
In "Candidates With No Shot" news, here's a recap of Chris Christie's town hall if anyone cares

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/12/politics/chris-christie-cnn-town-hall-takeaways/index.html

H'e not Trump, but he agrees with Trump. He is cool with abortion laws but thinks they should be up to the states and who knows? And he won't say if Trump is worse than Biden but he himself is good and should be president, basically.

Kind of hosed up when he's the most reaspnable Reupblican right now but, well.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Imo Christie has the best chance at challenging trump cuz he has an actual personality and could be considered "likeable" by some.

Which is to say, he has a .0001% chance as opposed to pudding fingers desantis flat 0%.

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.
Bourgeois entertainment and all that, but also a solid burn

https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2023/jun/12/denee-benton-ron-desantis-klan-grand-wizard-tony-awards-broadway

quote:

Prominent Broadway actor Denée Benton likened Florida’s rightwing governor Ron DeSantis to a Ku Klux Klan grand wizard at Sunday night’s Tony awards ceremony, drawing applause and roars of approval from the audience.

Benton, known for her stage roles in Hamilton as well as Natasha, Pierre and the Great Comet of 1812, took aim at the Republican presidential hopeful and his policies attacking minority groups as she announced an award for theatrical excellence for a Florida high school teacher from the town of Plantation.

She said: “While I am certain that the current grand wizard, I’m sorry, excuse me, governor of my home state will be changing the name of this following town immediately, we were honored to present this award to the truly incredible and life-changing Jason Zembuch-Young, enhancing the lives of students at South Plantation high school in Plantation, Florida.”

Vivian Darkbloom
Jul 14, 2004


Discendo Vox posted:

Another fun fact about Scott: he's never married or publicly dated and is thus as a part of his expressed Christian beliefs, avowedly celibate. Somehow (probably because he pisses off far fewer people in SC politics) I've never heard the sort of rumormongering around him that constantly swarms around Lindsey Graham, the other SC senator. I have to imagine that if Scott starts showing any promise, his personal life's going to go under a microscope in that regard.

https://twitter.com/bterris/status/1660620180890742790

I think he's said elsewhere he's not a virgin? Boy he does not like talking about it

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!
The millions of Americans who have been asking "Will Francis Suarez enter the presidential race?" can finally breathe a sigh of relief:

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1669094421416034304

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Gonna go ahead and say the Disney thing doesn't seem to be working out too well for Ron

https://twitter.com/NavigatorSurvey/status/1669359093860175877

Yawgmoft
Nov 15, 2004
Usually things work out better for the weasel when they chase a mouse.

Fighting Trousers
May 17, 2011

Does this excite you, girl?
What? No favorability bump for DeSantis after snagging the coveted Kevin Stitt endorsement?

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James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!
The support he lost from the combined Suarez and Burgum announcements canceled it out :shrug:

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