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i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Old Surly posted:

Big soft serve custard vibes

my man selling necco wafers next to an organ grinder

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i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

trump can tailor his set to the audience with the aplomb of a grizzled standup comic

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1667938913086853121?s=20

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

statistical analysis was not invalidated by the 2016 presidential election

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

drat that's crazy

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

my first thought is that he doesn't care about votes right now but does care about donations. possible he needs a sugar daddy to carry him through iowa and this could nab one

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

he's not thinking along those lines at all lol

besides being mortal enemies and a personality clash, a trump/desantis ticket would forfeit electoral votes from florida

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

i think desantis hit a 45% chance of winning on predictit

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

is there a recent poll with GOP primary voters on push for ceasefire vs escalate the war?

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

I think Christie is my favourite GOP candidate.

Don’t get me wrong the floor is somewhere around the pits of Tartarus, but like, he’s said some halfway decent things about addiction and being “pro-life” post birth, and as a native son of Texas I will always appreciate his kamikaze strike on Ted Cruz in 16

that was marco rubio, senator from florida

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

nixon was veep during suez, did he disagree with eisenhower at the time?

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Nixon winning in 1960 would have been a pretty huge change.

- Nixon would be Pres during the Cuban missile crisis.
- No JFK starting civil rights and Johnson finishing it up/Democrats losing the south forever.
- No JFK/LBJ means no Great Society/Medicare/Medicaid.

Seems like every 20 years the U.S. has a Presidential election that seems really unimportant, but ends up being a dramatically huge moment.

FDR broke everyone's brain and ended up getting a constitutional amendment passed by running for a 3rd term in 1940.

Kennedy over Nixon in 1960.

Nobody predicted what a massive change the Reagan revolution would end up being in 1980.

2000 was supposed to be a boring inconsequential election that instead lead to the Iraq War, Bush tax cuts, a conservative Supreme court majority, and Medicare Part D.

lmfao gently caress off with the numerology. fdr's 1940 win was not even his own career's most consequential election

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Rappaport posted:

if there are studies out there that discuss election cycles and even 20-year-intervals, I'm sure this thread would love to read them!

the real conspiracy theory is that reagan broke the curse of the once-every-twenty-years presidential assassination by surviving his

edit i guess the 1920 and 1940 slots just died in office

i say swears online fucked around with this message at 14:47 on Aug 11, 2023

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

before i googled that name my first thought was "oh he must have been involved with menachem begin"

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

hawley and cotton saw the writing on the wall and sat this one out

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

L. Ron DeSantis posted:

Over/under on Christie dropping out if Trump isn't at the next debate? He was barely able to say anything without his foil and when he did he got booed.

I'd be happy to take your money but Christie held his own and will be at the next debate barring streetball injury

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

How many people ever heard Lincoln speak vs seeing photos and hearing about him suplexing dudes because he was giant though?

this was a significant plot point in an old pinky and the brain

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

the real treasures are those $300 ipads from Jeb's superPAC that only played The Story Of Jeb that were handed out in NH in late 2015

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

they have too much respect for him to live a lie

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

OctaMurk posted:

trump is gonna say, "ramasmarmy or whatever" and then vivek will turn to dust

they're not enemies yet. vivek is running as the pro-trump candidate in trump's absense, and, if convicted, vivek would in theory have placed himself in the position of being the party's choice in lieu of jailed trump. it's an insane strategy, but so are the other candidates'

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

good thing that the first primary debate to election night is only one-third of our entire lives each cycle

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

AlternateNu posted:

Plus, out of the four one-term presidents since WW2, three have been Republicans. The only thing the GOP has over the dems as far as generic election calculus, is they're better at winning the EC w/o the popular vote.

and one of those three was never elected to veep or the presidency in the first place, with a shorter term, so probably couldn't bring to bear the full incumbency advantage

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

AtomikKrab posted:

With it seeming like Vivek is pulling ahead of any of the Non-Trump primary Candidates



it's possible he already hit his ceiling

quote:

does he have a good shot if for whatever reason Trump ends up not being the nominee?

his strategy is to be the trump candidate if/when trump goes to jail and the gop yanks the nomination away. it's not going to work because one he's pissing off the party brass and two the base are fundamentalist psychos

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

mods please change thread title to mike pence humiliation station

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1721136469903913000

nine point lead in Nevada lol

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

better get unskewin', gonna be a long cycle

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Space Fish posted:

Which party will the narrative say was ruined by third-party spoilers? Greens hurting libs in 2016, Libertarians hurting cons in 2020... failure demands a scapegoat.

the good brother doctor is going to catch a lot of heat if he's not too lazy to campaign

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

it's across two cycles but indiana 2008 -> 2012 -> 2016 was a big one

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

that "various student stuff" has directly lowered my standard of living more than any other president in my lifetime

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

the supreme court said he couldn't use covid money to forgive it or something but he never tried to use the full power of the executive, which has been a remarkably robust legal theory the last few decades

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

Is the GOP still doing winner take all for delegates

it's more of a mishmash than previous cycles I think, I remember in the past more states had delegates by congressional district. wiki says:

quote:

There will be an estimated total of 2,467 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention. In contests until March 15, delegates must be awarded on a proportional basis, either by percentage of statewide vote or share of congressional districts won. Some states have established thresholds between 4 and 20% for proportionality to kick in, under which a candidate receives no delegates. A vast majority, 41 contests totaling 1,920 delegates, operate this way using methods that are hybrid between proportionality and majority-take-all. New York for example has a 20% threshold for proportionality but if a candidate wins a majority, they take all delegates.

and ballotpedia has the specifics

https://ballotpedia.org/Republican_delegate_rules,_2024

NH will have a 10% threshold, for instance

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i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

I bet several hundred dollars against him the first time I heard his voice last spring

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