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DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Papercut posted:

Like half the QBs taken top-10 in the last decade have been busts so it seems like not just a Kyle problem

Fairly sure this has always been true. Most players aren’t good, even the ones that seem really good out of college. QBs are the highest visibility position so it just gets noticed more. Partly a function of the fact that if you get a good one you stick with them as long as possible, but how many decision makers/executives have more than 1 good QB pick on their resume?

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DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


I liked lance so I’m sad the went to the cowboys and i have to hate him now. Buts it’s true: he’s a jerk and a bust

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Steve Young is a very smart man.

He was always the greatest Niners QB and he didn’t cross the picket line like that turd Montana

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


trilljester posted:

It's because of his injury history. That's what all the hot takes were when he got traded.

i would actually like to see a lot less cmc and lot more elijah mitchell, especially when we go up 27-7 early in the third.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Seahawks have a fairly easy schedule the next 5 games: a collapsing Cininnati team, Arizona who are feisty but under talented, Cleveland who are a one side of the ball team, Baltimore is very good, Commanders are the kind of team that beats every bad team and loses to every good team. They might go into the rams rematch with 7 or 8 wins but then it gets loving ROUGH for the next 5, Rams Niners Cowboys Niners Eagles, oof.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Waltzing Along posted:

As an Niners fan I have to say I hate Dallas, Green Bay, Seattle, Baltimore and Kansas City.

that's the list. i don't feel anything about other teams

i suppose i'm slightly fond of the chargers and bengals

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


MakaVillian posted:

I honestly have no hate in my heart for either Baltimore or KC

The loss of a ring must be inscribed in the book of grudges

Papercut posted:

All Niners fans must feel something about the Saints

Eh. I don’t ever remember playing them in the playoffs back in the 80s/90s when they were good, let alone losing. Every team I have hate for actively stopped a likely Niners’ championship. By this logic I should also hate the Rams but don’t and I can’t say why exactly

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Mustached Demon posted:

My irrational sports grudge is the Saints caused the Niners to lose to the Giants in like 2010 or whatever. That was during their bounty scandal so my theory was the Niners were too beat up to endure 4 quarters vs Playoff Eli.

On that one I should theoretically be mad the Giants, but the loss was so flukey (Kyle Williams :/ ) and Eli beating Brady again was too funny

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Grozz Nuy posted:

the real villain of the 2011 NFCCG is Ed Hochuli, Bradshaw clearly fumbled and that forward progress call was horseshit

the game should never have left regulation and then the second Kyle Williams punt never happens

The Seattle NFCG was also on the refs for loving up a fumble call

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Leperflesh posted:

I was busy so I only got to see the niners game which I recorded and that was not a fun game to watch. Especially hate injuries to key players.

It looked to me like maybe brock purdy had literally never handled a wet football. His accuracy was way down, and there was a lot of poor ball handling.

Also gently caress the refs. CJ totally fumbled that ball that was not a forward pass, they were ticky tacky with pass interference until they weren't, they were kinda trash in both directions until they literally decided the outcome of the game with bad calls on the last few plays. Just a real embarrassing showing for that squad.

the niners have $40m in unused cap space this year so while your analysis is interesting from a broader perspective, there's just no excuse for letting Gould go. Maybe you worry about saving less than $3m a year if you're hard up against the cap.

I believe they’re planning to carry that over to next year, so it does have team building implications not just owner money

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


I’m in Pittsburgh and not Cleveland, but if it was anything like the rain we had here it was extremely volatile and slick. Lots of changes in direction and intensity. I imagine that’s even worse than a steady rain for things like kicking and throwing

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


seiferguy posted:

Part of me wonders if teams have figured out Brock Purdy considered he's laid two stinkers in a row. Could be a sophomore slump. Who knows!

He was 21/30 and had maybe 4 bad throws all night. two of them just happened to get intercepted.

Shindragon posted:

Woke up and still salty as poo poo. Wilks has to go. Twice he had this defense get burned and he only gets lucky when 49ers get turnovers otherwise the other team scores. Whether its an fg or TD.

Waltzing Along posted:

I don't think the 49ers can win a super bowl with Wilks. He's bad. The defense is playing worse than their talent would indicate. That's on the defensive coordinator. And just looking at some of the poo poo he calls makes it pretty obvious he is wrong for the job. The end of half TD was 100% on his stupidity. And that was pretty much the game, right there. Beyond that, he is constantly playing soft coverage on 3rd downs and making it way too easy to convert.

He's gotta go. Shanahan has some glaring weaknesses that are only compounded when the defense can't bail out his mistakes.

have you guys ever tried lithium

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Apart from the two interceptions, which were arguably not so much a lack of skill as his having to force plays downfield he wouldn't under better circumstances, Purdy wasn't the problem last night. The problem was that the defense had zero ability to stop the Vikings offense until the fourth quarter.

I mean even that isn’t quite fair. In the first half they forced one turnover and gave up a td on an extremely flukey play that was almost another interception. If Addison loses that wrestling match or the db just goes for the tackle, then they’d have given up only 1 td, and even as it is they mostly held the Vikings to field goals. I think the biggest issue overall was that CMC played like rear end for most of the game. 15 rushes and he only managed 45 yards and a lost fumble. The Niners failed to establish the run and were punished accordingly

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


seiferguy posted:

Shanahan seems to have an issue when star players are hurt (either they're out or on the field & dealing with something nagging), he cannot adjust to work without it. Like Purdy is clearly not 100%, and without Deebo he's just all over the place.

When everyone is good, he's on fire, but it is the NFL and you gotta adjust better for injuries.

i mean he made the nfccg last year with their third string qb

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Peachfart posted:

Your right, we should dump Pete for the better coaches on the market like

Belichick and to lesser extent Reid have broken everyone's brain as to what constitutes a successful coach

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


trilljester posted:

Nobody cares, but my fantasy team would be very happy if one Tyler Lockett would catch many passes and touchdowns against the Washington Football Team on Sunday.

Also, just checking in with my Faithful Goons, how do we feel about this Sunday? Will the real Niners show up again, or are we going to get the fraud team we've seen the past few weeks?

Williams apparently isn’t likely to play, but it’s been long enough for Purdy’s brain to congeal. So they’ll probably look good until he takes a big hit and loses 40 points of IQ. The question is how much damage they do before that happens

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Chris James 2 posted:

Pretty much

If you're going to move on, it's always better to do it too early instead of too late. If you think you'll suck for a decade without him, while you've underperformed the last year or two (this would be three in a row) with him, underperforming another three years with him doesn't get rid of that "suck for a decade without him" option, it just adds three more wasted years onto it

This is unbelievably bad logic. It’s not like there’s an actual timer and you just get a good coach and roster automatically after x years of penance. The point is there just are not all that many good coaches so if you have one and ditch him to try and get a “great” one you will likely fail and go a long time before you get another good one. In fact you may never

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


OGS-Remix posted:

It's better to be lucky than good. And they're good on their own so if they're also lucky, I dunno how anyone can beat them.

You can say they got lucky KC's receivers can't catch and that the Bills RB ran the wrong route at the end but that sort of luck is exactly how teams win the Superbowl.

luck is not repeatable, it is uh...luck. it is good to be lucky but that is not an indication you will continue to be lucky in the future

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


DancingMachine posted:

I think somehow the Seahawks pull out an improbable win here while still exhibiting all the flaws we know make them a pretend-good team.

i swear i was going to say this before the game too, but dallas is also pretend good

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


MakaVillian posted:

While I love shithousing teams, I'm hoping this doesn't come back to bite them in a possible playoff match. This would absolutely be bulletin board material for the Eagles

Comrade, please I beg of you to chill out

Beating the ever loving poo poo out of the other best team in the conference is not a thing to worry about

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


shirts and skins posted:

hell yeah, that was less bad than I expected without Geno

one more brutal loss upcoming with the Philly visit, then we can start wrapping this season up

honestly if you played like you did today you might win against philly. they are not in world beating shape right now

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Coldforge posted:

Future 49ers legend Tyler Lockett :hmmyes:

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Ornery and Hornery posted:

And to your point, it is true that Pete has only missed the playoffs twice in his tenure. As I noted earlier, Pete also only has career winning records with Russel Wilson. Pre Wilson he had a below 500 W/L and post Wilson he has a below 500 W/L. Much of his making the playoff is due to having an elite QB and relatively weak competition. And Pete’s only won 2 playoff games since the end of the LOB era. That’s since 2015!

hey how many playoff games has sean payton won since 2015 out of curiosity

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


YOLOsubmarine posted:

The top three MVP favorites all have the same record so it sounds like the typical MVP standard is in fact what they’re using right now, they just don’t think Brock is the best of the bunch.

I would probably vote for Lamar atm on the worst supporting cast criterion but no one ever does the kind of analysis you’re talking about before picking mvp, they go with some stats and gut every time

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


I don’t think he’s better than Mahomes, the best qb of all time or second at worst, but I think he has been much more productivethis year. If you take mvp very literally it would of course just go to Mahomes until he is washed, would have gone to Lebron 15 years in a row, etc

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Ornery and Hornery posted:

If Philly had won then there was a world where Seattle ended up with a losing record and a pick near 10. This would have put the team within trade distance of QB3 and maybe gotten Pete fired.

Now we’re likely to end up 9-8, pick in the high teens, and Pete gets another couple years.

RIP

the overwhelming odds are that qb3, whoever they are, sucks rear end and so does your next coach. you're pining for trey lance and arthur smith

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


feller posted:

Both Giants team come to mind, and not just because they're blue

2012 Ravens were a 4 seed 10-6 team who went on an all time offensive heater despite being a mediocre offensive team before and after. Rams and the Bengals were both 4 seeds who were viewed as pretty flawed at best.


Ornery and Hornery posted:

The conceit behind your post is that franchise qbs just grow on trees and can be plucked like ripe fruit in the later rounds.

Or.

That a young brilliant offensive minded coach can get elite offensive production with a serviceable QB.

it's neither. the point is that there are never more than 15 or so decent QBs and rarely more than 6-7 who are actively good enough to improve your record, and maybe even fewer positive coaches. You probably won't get one of either in a decade of trying.

Papercut posted:

It's still funny that the most lauded QB draft since Luck yielded TLaw, who looks pretty good but not franchise-defining, and then Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, and Mac Jones. They were all supposed to be basically can't-miss prospects lol.

Yeah, topping out with a dude who looks like the median quarterback is rough

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Benne posted:

Bitching about draft position after every win is a loving miserable way to be a fan. Sorry you couldn't enjoy last night.

Yeah I would never root for my team to lose, just huge Asset Brain. Don't get me wrong on years where the Magic or Niners are obviously terrible I don't take the losses so hard, but if you're tearing your hair out over draft position and getting upset your team played well, that fucken sucks.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Carillon posted:

How many successful teams tanked and then recovered to either win it all or at least go far in the playoffs? I feel like tanking in the NFL is tough because the reason why you are losing is often why you don't want that brain trust picking out your future talent either! Alsohow much of a players success seems to come from the coach and the scheme fittign with their talents. I wonder how many players are truly so good that they could succeed even under Rhule or something like that. Seems even more rare.

It’s pretty rare. Niners and Bengals are the only recent conference champs who bottomed out to get there. Before that maybe all the way back to the Panthers?

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Ornery and Hornery posted:

Could you speak more to this? I get, from context, the joke. But I don’t watch F1 so I’d love to learn more.

Is it basically just that the order they start the race in is the order the race finishes in?

https://www.quora.com/Why-is-there-hardly-any-passing-in-modern-Formula-1 I was curious too and looked it up, this guy gives the best answer I found

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Waltzing Along posted:

I mean...we shut down their vaunted running game pretty well. Save for the one Lamar run, they didn't do anything. If not for the 3 tips that found hands, it's a very different game. I wonder what the numbers are on tips. I know more find their way to the defense than to the offense, but I'm betting it is still fewer than 50% that don't hit the ground. Probably less than 33%

Whoever was on Deebo did a good job shutting him down, though. That was the one thing that did impress me tonight.

Deebo had some bad drops too. Those drops plus the first three interceptions ended drives that were marching and you just can’t overcome that many mistakes/that much bad luck

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Waltzing Along posted:

There are 17 games in the season. And over the 17 games Purdy was the best QB in the league. The statistics back this up, both traditional and analytical. My point was that until the one actual bad game against Baltimore, he was the MVP favorite. The recency bias in the NFL is kind of insane now. It wasn't this bad 10 years ago. But now it's week to week.

The recency bias has absolutely always been this bad. Go back and read literally any past thread in this forum and you’ll see dramatic, insane overreactions to week by week variance every year. The coaching carousel thread is basically “histrionic overreactions to recent games: the thread” and always has been

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


YOLOsubmarine posted:

I’m just suggesting that actually watching games, not in any deep or analytical fashion, but just sitting down and watching the games and enjoying the play instead of getting consumed with EPA and QBR and success rate and a bunch of other things is a very good way to understand how Lamar is the runaway favorite.

Is this like a wisdom of crowds thing? Are you appealing to the eye test of the average nfl viewer? Because uh…I find that unpersuasive

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Papercut posted:

It was 1st or 2nd down, he could've just thrown it away, it was an insanely stupid decision, major choke play

loves ints were both very much on him even if there was some bad luck on the first one too it was a very poor throw. both QBs showed their inexperience with the situation and the weather in that game badly. Jones and the depressingly good Packers line kept them in it, and McCaffrey and some very opportune defense won it for the Niners. I suspect the two of them will have more impressive duels in the future

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Chris James 2 posted:

There's the score. :fork:

i'm kind of glad i wasn't here for the doomposting in the first half lol

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Coldforge posted:

These are their UFAs this coming offseason:


They're probably all going to walk, except maybe one or two of the cheaper ones.

Jauan's the only RFA outside of backup guard, Ben Bartch.

They can probably squeeze in Jauan and extend Aiyuk with some creative cap work, if they want to. Hufanga will be returning from injury, so he may not even want to extend his contract until he has a healthy return season to use as leverage.

2025 is when things become an issue:



(Oliver is almost certainly gone after this season, and Armstead and Ward are probably going elsewhere when those contracts expire)

This is all just normal stuff though. Take any team's roster for 2 different years 3 years apart and it will be majority new players. Even 2 years out most teams are majority new players.

https://overthecap.com/roster-turnover-in-the-nfl

There's a reason so few teams are good, or bad, for very long.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Papercut posted:

lol this video has a great example of why Trey Lance is not the QB anymore, perfectly clean pocket and a wide open man for a TD and he misses the throw so badly

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwt28H8TiZE&t=419s

I was amused that his fifth point was that Purdy will have to take chances to run, because the place had just been showing where O’Connel threw a fade to a guy under a blanket there was a window I could have run for 5-10 yards that he just ignores.

DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


MakaVillian posted:

Yeah wanting Shanahan to be fired is absolutely insane and stupid. I'm not always a fan of his playcalling but the 49ers are highly unlikely to find someone better.

Run the ball more in the 3rd quarter, yes even against 8 man fronts (or call some screens) would help. But it was sloppy or unlucky plays that did the 49ers in: CMC fumble, Greenlaw injury and the muffed punt were too much.

honestly just the punt not hitting that dude's ankle and the Niners probably win in regulation. Football is rough

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DeimosRising
Oct 17, 2005

¡Hola SEA!


Ornery and Hornery posted:

The take from some niners fans that Shanahan is a bad play caller and that the Niners should have run it more in the third quarter (into extremely stacked boxes)… Wowie zowie.

Shanahan did a great job. The game was lost on defense and special teams.

Coldforge is right, if the niners get a better DC and some improvements to the OL, they are going to be a in a good spot for 2024. Assuming Trent Williams is healthy and powerful for another year.

as far as i can tell that stuff is mostly not coming from niners fans, but people who were casually rooting against the chiefs and want to have a little fun riling up actual fans. at least here

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