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pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


FrozenVent posted:

How are they getting SRBM into Gaza? I thought Israël had the place tightly locked down.

I’m not doubting it, just curious about the mechanics of it from a professional viewpoint.

boring answer:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/11/middleeast/hamas-weaponry-gaza-israel-palestine-unrest-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

quote:

“Hamas’ tunnel infrastructure is still massive despite Israel and Egypt regularly degrading it,” said Bilal Saab, senior fellow and director of the Defense and Security Program at the Middle East Institute (MEI) in Washington.

“Hamas has received arms from Iran smuggled into the (Gaza) Strip via tunnels. This often included longer-range systems,” said Daniel Byman, a senior fellow with the Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

“Iran has also been shipping Hamas its more advanced … ballistic missiles via sea, in components for construction in Gaza,” said Charles Lister, senior fellow at the MEI.

Cage fight answer:

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pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Kazinsal posted:

Even if covert supply by sea is the more realistic option, I'm just imagining the size and design of tunnel needed to fit a whole rear end SRBM through it.

maybe easier than you might imagine. googling one popular iranian type (not saying this is in use in gaza):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fateh-110

diameter of 0.60m, length of 9m. so pretty thin, but almost as long as two Ford F150's. hope your tunnel doesn't have many tight turns. more likely it'd be disassembled for smuggling however it came in

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


TheWeedNumber posted:

It’s never gonna happen but a third party needs to handle Gaza. No fly zone over Gaza. Run COIN on the ground to separate Hamas from the population. Splash any IAF that shows up or smoke any IDF that enters the zone and wants to test. Otherwise I feel like the poo poo won’t stop.

Fun thought experiment, never gonna happen tho.

yeah, let's pull on this thread, here's an idea:

The USA enacts a plan to accelerate the peace process by converting Jerusalem into a Vatican-like independent city-state to be administered by a tribunal of Jewish, Muslim, Roman Catholic, and Eastern Orthodox religious leaders, and secured by an independent contingent of the Swiss Guards. As a nod to Israel, the U.S. Army supplies the IDF with more sophisticated equipment and agrees to construct a training base in the Negev Desert run by the U.S. Army's tank warfare specialists and the revived 10th Cavalry Regiment. The plan will work if we have regular meetings with officials in both Israel and Saudi Arabia.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


brave dudes taking an unarmed, empty, civilian ship

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Radical 90s Wizard posted:

This is a stupid loving thing to say dude

I presume he was referring to this:
https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/hamas.asp

quote:

The Slogan of the Islamic Resistance Movement:

Article Eight:
Allah is its target, the Prophet is its model, the Koran its constitution: Jihad is its path and death for the sake of Allah is the loftiest of its wishes.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


the whole discussion reminds me of that line from Patton:

quote:

No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making some other poor dumb bastard die for his country.

which, if dug into, appears to be a variant of a common saying from multiple 20th century western militaries:
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2015/04/24/war/

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Cugel the Clever posted:

I'm gonna need a whole lot more evidence before I buy the "IDF attack helicopter responsible for a majority of the civilian deaths at the festival" thing. Regurgitating poorly-sourced, extraordinary claims is detrimental to the ultimate goal of justice for the Palestinian people. If you think there's a there there, either dig for strong evidence or wait until someone else unearths some.

but someone had a picture of closely parked cars that were clearly in a big fire! must've been GUNSHIPS!

wonder if GUNSHIPS also took out these cars related to BIDEN -- can anyone really prove they didn't?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11482881/Five-cars-rented-Bidens-Secret-Service-burst-FLAMES-Nantucket-used-family.html

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Herstory Begins Now posted:

that's a different level of destroyed from cars simply catching fire

vov

the only remarkable thing there is that the center car is still mostly white

here are a bunch of cars that were in different natural fires:











in your pic, it looks like the cars were trashed by angry people then set on fire

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Herstory Begins Now posted:

pretty hard to miss difference in structural damage between the two

what's your theory here, that downdraft from the gunship rotors crushed the cars?

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Lovely Joe Stalin posted:

I'd have said they look a lot like they were hit by weapons powerful enough to mangle them. Perhaps of the sort carried by attack helicopters.

where's the shrapnel damage? how did the car with the yellow circle on it get all dented up? it looks like someone was beating on it

here are images of vehicles that were -- according to the media -- hit by hellfire strikes, like perhaps of the sort carried by attack helicopters:







in the last case, the structure is in better shape than the ones in the pic we're arguing about. in all cases, tons of fragment holes

I mean between the choices of "IDF gunships let loose with several hellfires on a small group of parked cars and vaporized a bunch of concertgoers in the process yet no fragment hole patterns were visible and some cars just kinda got... dented, somehow" vs. "angry dudes shot at some people hiding and trashed some cars then set them all on fire" ... going with occam's razor here

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


yeah I didn’t open this thread last night expecting to post about cars (and I’m done with it), but I just get frustrated at how quickly various events are being re-interpreted with conspiracy theory angles as soon as one side finds an event unpopular to claim ownership of. like there are actual denials in the wild from widely followed sources that hamas killed anyone at the concert venue at all. things get absurd pretty quickly.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


McNally posted:

No, it's a fair point. I really don't want to throw sixers at people for screaming their throats raw at someone who posts "but what if Gaza had it coming after all?" and escaping punishment because they expressed an abhorrent opinions without no-no words.

I think I need to make the language clear that expressing abhorrent opinions, bad faith arguments, and the other kinds of trolling bullshit we see does not qualify as "being excellent to each other."

This conflict is really difficult for people to discuss because there’s decades of abhorrent behavior by both major sides, and currently there are outside cheerleaders (talking beyond just SA) endorsing forms of terrorism and war crimes. Plus disinfo and conspiracy theories to rival what was seen early in the run up to the RUS invasion.

I think leadership on both sides is terrible and I like GiP because it’s possible to discuss things from that point of view, plus generally get more level-headed or interesting, relevant news updates and military commentary.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


CSM posted:

It's always a possibility, but note that the same story about insider trading was pushed about the 9/11 attacks but no investigation ever actually discovered any insider trading.

in this case, 5 days before would’ve been the first monday of the 4th quarter, so it’d hardly be surprising if some long/short funds were making huge adjustments to positions. quarterly rebalances and new positions that avoid EOQ reports for 3Q

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


also from the comments, dunno if true but lol if so. account posting is legit:

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1731710044620607926

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


if you want to discuss the free speech angle of all this, this is probably related to that resolution's existence:

https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1732179418787783089?s=20

a few universities with significantly looser moderation standards than SA

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


i mean, not even being asked if it’s a hate crime. just if it’s against the code of conduct for bullying or harassment, as per quote and video posted n tweet. no actual criminal offense implications in the question.

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Kith posted:

well that problem solved itself

I was so close to asking for a permaban check on that guy but he didn't post in my subforum so welp

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Dance Officer posted:

In all I'm not sure how to feel about this. I don't think the Israeli's are credible as a source and there hasn't been a Palestinian attack in Europe since the 80s(?), but I also think Dutch police did at least some due diligence.

90s, I think?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_London_Israeli_embassy_bombing

but surely you might understand how europeans are keen to avoid a repeat of the 2015-2017 era:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2015_%C3%8Ele-de-France_attacks
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_2015_Paris_attacks
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Brussels_bombings
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Nice_truck_attack
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Berlin_truck_attack
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchester_Arena_bombing
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Barcelona_attacks

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Cugel the Clever posted:

Egypt appears to be preparing space on the border for refugees from Gaza. Viewed charitably, they're preparing for the worst. Viewed skeptically, one can't help but wonder if Sisi cut a deal with Bibi that would make him complicit in the wholesale ethnic cleansing of the population of Gaza.

I guess, the charitable explanation seems simplest and most likely? what "deal" would they even cut?

the takes on this are kind of weird to hear. NPR framed egypt's opposition to potentially accepting refugees as "they don't want to be a part of facilitating that happening". but like, drat, they're refugees and it's obvious that egypt is not on the side of israel. just imagine applying the same argument to turkey or europe refusing syrian refugees during the govt campaign against its civilians there: "they don't want to be a part of facilitating that happening". there'd be wholesale outrage. or imagine the US turning away people at its border "they don't want to be a part of facilitating that happening" regarding abuses in latin america, instead of allowing people to make asylum requests. terrible.

the more obvious explanation of egypt not wanting refugees has to do with the politics of the current government and the history of the muslim brotherhood in that country

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Stultus Maximus posted:

I think the obvious explanation is "Israel will not let the refugees back into Gaza after they leave and Egypt doesn't want a permanent refugee population"

i think there's a more complicated history here (like with almost everything in the middle east). sisi really, really hates the muslim brotherhood, and hamas is an offshoot of that. all of egypt's actions must be viewed in that lens. egypt would be just fine with hamas being destroyed in 2024.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/egypt-keeps-former-powerhouse-muslim-brotherhood-out-politics-2022-07-29/

quote:

In 2013, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, then armed forces chief and now president, removed the Brotherhood's Mohamed Mursi from power after mass protests against his rule.
Egypt then launched its most ferocious crackdown against the group, handing down death sentences or long prison terms for its leaders and driving its members underground or abroad.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/08/30/egypt-sisi-muslim-brotherhood-history-repression-nationalism-democracy-opposition/

quote:

After the coup d’état that brought Sisi to power, parallel to the state-led media campaign that sought to create and sustain a reservoir of support for what was called Egypt’s “second revolution” was a drive to portray the Muslim Brotherhood as “fifth columnists.” The Brothers were routinely depicted as being agents of either the Qataris and/or the Turks.
At the same time, Sisi justified the violence he employed to suppress the Brothers on the grounds that the group was a terrorist organization.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/egypt-cauldron-gaza
https://archive.ph/8l1Pt

quote:

Turmoil in Gaza is not entirely a bad thing for the regime of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. In many respects, his government would be happy to see Israel eliminate Hamas, an organization that grew out of the Muslim Brotherhood—the Islamist group that is Sisi’s bête noire.

if refugees, including many people either members of, or sympathetic to hamas, end up in egypt -- that creates a large set of new risks for sisi's very survival. he has tried to avoid that for purely political reasons, and that's one of the reasons egypt put so much effort over the years into maintaining a border wall with gaza: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt%E2%80%93Gaza_barrier, which was substantially expanded beginning in 2020

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Cugel the Clever posted:

The potential big difference between the two cases is that the governments of Europe were generally genuinely against the crimes of the Assad regime and the refugee camps were European countries being reactive—not collaborating with Assad.

either way we agree that NPR explanation is poo poo, as your argument is basically that egypt is intentionally complicit

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


raminasi posted:

I thought a recent Defector piece drew a poignant parallel:

It's anything but a pro-Biden article; the theme is despair at how powerless voting is to affect any of this.

oh, voting certainly affected things in Vietnam. just not in the way many people hoped, because they voted with feelings rather than critical thinking about Tricky Dick Nixon

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


ranbo das posted:

Iran has F-14s which as the documentary Top Gun: Maverick has shown, pretty easily defeat 5th generation fighters. The US is powerless against their might.

(I think he just has a weird posting gimmick)

did you learn nothing from that film??

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/8844499b-dafa-4509-8377-abadfdba70b6

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pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Cugel the Clever posted:

Israeli security minister taking the partial pause in arms shipments well:
https://x.com/itamarbengvir/status/1788458123436433783

what an infantile response. i’m coming around to the idea that israel’s ongoing behavior for months now is in part designed to cause biden reelection problems

tom friedman, of all people, had a good op/ed recently describing how pretty much everyone involved in the whole conflict is terrible in different ways

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