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IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

a neat cape posted:

Denver sitting there at 12 is gonna pull the trigger

Washington will take him at 11 after the Vikings trade up to 2 to take Daniels

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IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

wandler20 posted:

lol we're already calling this before the season is even played?

people have been scouting some of these kids since middle school probably, the top of the class isn't going to change much by one more season

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Ornery and Hornery posted:

The real mystery is that Jayden had a better drat year than the historic Burrow year and somehow didn’t get nearly the love.

That's because Tua and Herbert weren't as highly regarded as Caleb and Maye going into the year.

e: also Burrow is from Ohio which makes for a really easy story when the hometown kid can come home with the #1 overall pick

IcePhoenix fucked around with this message at 01:57 on Jan 17, 2024

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

I feel like I've seen multiple different places say something along the lines of "Nabers would be WR1 in almost any draft class it's just that this one has the next Larry Fitzgerald/Calvin Johnson level prospect" so I would absolutely take him over Bowers if I were the Chargers

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

A Sneaker Broker posted:

Speaking of Willis, I wonder if he ends up on the Vikings.

is there anything to this rumor or do you just think the vikings are that desperate

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Since we're talking about QB's I asked a friend what he thought about this class since he likes scouting them (he also had Lamar as the best QB in that class) and here's his takes

quote:

i did a very surface level first pass through the top 6 QB prospects last night. very brief thoughts, very subject to change:

-jayden daniels is good. just a classic dual threat guy with good passing fundamentals and great straight line speed. i think he has a good chance to end up in that allen/burrow/herbert tier of QB. i don't have a lot to say, and that's a good thing.
-caleb williams is frustrating. i think this is a trevor lawrence situation. he's been hyped as "obvious #1 generational talent" for so long that people just kinda stopped watching him. i did not like what i saw. holds the ball way too long, doesn't play in structure, extremely inconsistent mechanics leading to inconsistent throws. the problem with drafting a guy who plays like mahomes without mahomes tools is that it doesn't work. i'd be scared to draft him.
-bo nix! yeah, this class doesn't have much i'm excited about. i love his easy arm strength. figuring out how to utilize it in a way that doesn't just lead to a ton of picks is gonna be the challenge. doesn't appear to have consistent accuracy or strong reads, so he's gonna need an OC to make it easy for him.
-jj mccarthy, i guess. michigan didn't ask him to do anything. he has pretty good physical tools, but probably needs to sit for two years. i never like drafting a guy who needs to sit for at least two years and doesn't project to have elite tools. kinda kills the value of a rookie contract. hard to do a good evaluation given what he was asked to do.
-drake maye. he's not good. he can't throw and he can't run. i'm not sure why he's a top 5 pick. maybe a 5th round pick?
-michael penix. he even more can't throw and even more can't run and i don't think i'd draft him unless i was miami and wanted a backup LH QB

As a side note if the Vikings draft McCarthy I'll probably have a little bit of a meltdown because watching him in the CFP I see nothing that interests me at the NFL level.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Kirios posted:

I remember getting flak in this very thread when I said McCarthy was a first round pick.

Teams can't help themselves when they see the arm talent. He's definitely a project though.

I feel like his arm is the last thing about JJ's game I would call talent

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Dexo posted:

Minnesota is thirsty as gently caress for a QB. Penix is by far going to be their best chance to get a decent prospect without mortgaging their future(which they tried to do last year for Richardson) I cannot see Penix getting past Minnesota.

This is why I've been saying that I expect the Vikings to trade up to get Daniels, though idk if it would have to be with Washington or the Pats at this point.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

I've seen some mocks giving the Vikings a DT at 11 and honestly if they can't move up for Daniels I'm good with them getting a shitwrecker in the middle for Flores. Though if they lose Hunter in FA that defense is gonna have a lot of holes and I'm not sure you can pass on an EDGE or CB at that spot in that case.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida


now do one where the Vikings trade up into the top three only giving up a second and fourth because that's about as realistic as that one.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Dexo posted:

I would take JJ in the Late First if I was a team that wanted him even if I had him as a second round grade

Extra year of control would be nice for someone like him.

He's gonna go top 15. Maybe top 10.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Dexo posted:

please god let him go top 10 makes it more likely Odunze/Nabers falls to 9

I assume it would be Odunze since I think just about every mock I've seen in the last week has some combination of Caleb/Maye/Daniels/MHJ/Nabers as the top five (usually in that order but there are some curveballs)

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Dexo posted:

look at the types of shoes they are wearing.

Kyler has Foams with decent lift on them, Bryce is in slides.


They are both like the same height, Kyler is just far more built.

if we need to dock kyler an inch or so for the lifts we also need to dock bryce the same amount for his hair

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

something else on JJ that helps the "but projections" mindset is that he only just turned 21 in January so he's still got a lot of room for physical growth that a guy two or three years older than him doesn't have

I don't think I want the Vikings to draft him (if they don't trade up to grab one of the top three and the draft shakes out like I expect then I would rather they trade down a few spots to try and grab an extra day 2 pick) but it's not going to feel like a disaster pick like Ponder did if they do

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Amy Pole Her posted:

Soon we will have a first round fullback and the world will be good again

OH NOOOO

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Doltos posted:

The Chief's offense has 1 first rounder on it.

Sounds like they're making good calls wrt positional value then

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Bismack Billabongo posted:

It wouldn’t be sexy but if I’m the chargers I’d look to see if one of the min/den/lvl/atl bunch is interested in trading up. Obviously two of those are division rivals but if you can trick one of them into moving up for jj McCarthy that would be worth it. If you can get down even further, like late teens, the center from Oregon would be a really excellent pickup for them IMO.

As a titans fan at this point I am basically hoping that one of Alt / Nabers / Fashanu are available at 7. Any of those three are blue chip talents IMO and also fill an enormous need. If all three of those gone and your options are Bowers, Odunze, or (Other), I’d probably rather try and trade down. I haven’t looked at Odunze that much yet, though.

It is early obviously but it really does seem like there will either be a run on the second tier of receivers or tackles at the end of round 1/start of round 2. There should be at least one good body available at either of those spots when they pick again. I just hope it doesn’t end up being Legette lol. If they could trade down a little from 38 and land Polk I would be psyched although as I have endlessly alluded to I would be thrilled with Troy Franklin or one of the Texas dudes at 38.

I think passing on Nabers would be very silly, personally.

If both he and MHJ are gone then yeah trade out but then it's a team wanting Daniels/Maye not Mccarthy and you can probably get a pretty nice load of picks there

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Diva Cupcake posted:

Zierlein has a lot of his scouting profiles available with number grades.

https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/prospects/all-positions/all-colleges/all-statuses/2024?page=1

Some interesting data points in this. Nabers highest graded overall at 6.86. JC Latham much higher graded than his Alt/Fashanu/Fuaga tier.
https://twitter.com/LanceZierlein/status/1760346606501515385?s=20

Honestly from the media I've consumed I think grading Nabers as having a higher ceiling than MHJ seems to be pretty fair. But at the same time MHJ has a much higher floor so is probably the better pick.

e: I just read his legend at the bottom and giving nobody a "pro bowl talent" grade in this class is honestly wild to me

IcePhoenix fucked around with this message at 18:16 on Feb 21, 2024

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Ornery and Hornery posted:

Yeah it’s wild to me too. Everyone seems so stoked on the talent in this class and he seems a lot more lukewarm.

Love that he has Maye as QB3. TFF leading the meta again: Jayden is better than Maye :smug:

Thinking more on it I think my biggest gripe on using a scale like that is that it needs to be 100% position independent but you can tell he's also clearly grading the prospects against each other to rank them.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Sweat is a guy I'd really love for the Vikings to take with their second pick. The bullshit he'd allow Flores to get up to would be wonderful.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

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Nodoze posted:

They are def going QB

Yeah, Kirk Cousins

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Ornery and Hornery posted:

Nice thanks for sharing.

I find this misleading:

Seems like the author is trying to make it seem like actually JJ threw it a bunch on third down and long! Coaches trusted him on their and long more than other QBs! But the data is just showing that JJ didn’t throw much in other situations.

I’d also like to see data on things like Y/A, Y/C, CPOE.

it's absolutely intentionally misleading

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

On the other side of the spectrum I've heard a couple guys say they'd only give one, maybe two, RBs a day two grade. So it may be deep/balanced but, if nobody is picking one until roud four, that probably fits the afterthought definition

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Gareth Gobulcoque posted:

It's the same, but the RB class is deeper and isn't spread out amongst 3 positions.

idk why but there's something about this that just feels off to me. Like it's technically true but it feels like white noise that nobody should care about.

Also just skimming a couple big boards there are roughly 3x as many IOL in the top 100 as there are RBs so...

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida


Due diligence in case he starts to fall I assume. Also don't forget that there are multiple upcoming FA QBs that signing probably means you're out on taking a QB in the first round.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Docjowles posted:

Talking for several minutes without saying anything at all. It's definitely the offseason!

Daniels seems cool and good but his highlight reel will look a little different throwing to perhaps the literal slowest pass catching corps in the NFL behind a dogshit OL. 31 year old DeVante Parker isn't getting behind the defense for 60 yard bombs, nor will Daniels have time to hold the ball long enough for that play to develop. God this roster sucks so bad lol

This just gives me a little extra hope that the pats decide to take MHJ or Nabers to throw the draft into chaos

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

I made a post about getting names confused but it was me in fact who got the names confused :lol:

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

A Sneaker Broker posted:

I need T’Vondre Sweat like I need water. I see greatness.

that's "Vikings second round pick T'Vondre Sweat" to you buddy

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

What's the deal with Joe Milton? A friend of mine was talking about how he'd be a day 2 QB at worst if he had better receivers instead of solidly in day 3, so I watched some highlights and man that arm pops. Saw a couple casual flicks somehow go 50 yards in the air and a back foot throw that went like 35-40.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

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sean10mm posted:

Roger Staubach?

this was my first thought too but he only started like three games in his first two years in the NFL

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

https://twitter.com/uSTADIUM/status/1766137845041791409

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1768634543534231892

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Kalli posted:

This has to be a precursor to another trade right? Otherwise, why do a pure picks trade now?

Ammo to trade up for a QB without giving up a pickfirst next year is my assumption yeah

IcePhoenix fucked around with this message at 14:59 on Mar 15, 2024

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Based on the various takes I've seen I feel like MHJ has a lower ceiling than at least two or maybe three WRs in this class but the thing that makes him the first WR off the board is that his floor seems way higher. This was from a month or two ago but I remember seeing a post that compared him to a bunch of previous top picks and was like "he has better x than y" and they were all of the worst qualities from those guys, which was to illustrate that he just doesn't really have any big weaknesses. But then you can take Thomas Jr for example and he has strengths beyond Harrison, but weaknesses that mean those strengths may stop him from reaching those heights.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Doltos posted:

The general consensus was that order, I hope

considering where they were all drafted I don't think it was

e: I just did a quick google and in four mocks it was Burrow #1, Tua/Herbert at 5/6 (the order was flipped in half of them), and Love anywhere from 19 to the second round so I'm gonna hold with that not matching general consensus.

IcePhoenix fucked around with this message at 03:17 on Mar 19, 2024

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Doltos posted:

General consensus among GMs is never going to match random jagoffs online. I just think that anyone who had Bryce Young over CJ Stroud never watched college football, and that a lot of people were pretending Young was better once the news came out that the Panthers were dumbly taking him at #1

we're never going to know the actual general consensus from GMs so all we have to go off of is their draft order and mocks, neither of which matched up with that chart

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

wandler20 posted:

drat, what happened that SOME team couldn't get him on campus?

https://x.com/NFL_DF/status/1770869556627587416?s=20

am I reading this right that he weighs 285 and runs a 4.47 40? Because good lord that sounds terrifying coming off the edge

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

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Gully Foyle posted:

I don't see the Cardinals moving down to 11 in any world and falling out of the top 3 receivers spots. Maybe they'll move down, but I think they want to stay in the top 10.

Maybe they move down for 11 and 23 then use 11 and 35 to move back up? Or they also have the 27th pick so they could use that if need be too. They probably only really need to jump the Bears in that case.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

I see a lot of criticism about Penix not being mobile but is there a reason he can't just be good at avoiding sacks? Looking at the NFL leaders in sack % over history and there's not exactly a lack of statues on the list.

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IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Ornery and Hornery posted:

Because Penix freaking owns, OP.

1. He’s willing to throw the ball away rather than taking a sack. This is a hella good skill for a qb.
2. He also has that Brady/Manning magic of being able to feel pressure in the pocket, make a small step here or a small duck there, and gain just enough time to get a throw off. This is also a hella good skill for a qb.

Look how much better Penix is than the others in this class with his elite low pressure-to-sack %: 6.5%!!!

This is sorta what I was getting at with that question yeah.

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