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God drat some of you have memory problems about the goldfish memories of voters. Not only will no one remember the Mexico thing, but while Trump will be pounding the "Biden is demented" thing while Biden pounds the "Trump has 91 charges," "insurrection," and possibly "convicted" thing, Trump will be losing votes by the day as everyone hears him speak and gets their little goldfish memories refreshed every hour. Combine that with lowest unemployment in like a century, roaring stock market, lowest inflation in the West, Democrats keep winning, etc. etc. etc. I hate to break it to you all, but Trump will be buried even before election day. Edit: and then Trump will have to put up like $500m that he doesn't have in escrow very soon while he appeals his multiple proven fraud and sex abuse crimes. small butter fucked around with this message at 04:05 on Feb 9, 2024 |
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Feb 9, 2024 04:02
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Koburn posted:Hard to see how this won't lead to a loss due to low voter turnout from lack of enthusiasm. 'The other guy is also senile' isn't very encouraging. Why would there be a lack of enthusiasm? You're underestimating how much people actually hate Trump. Democrats have been winning big for years now, including last year, and to think that they vote for the Democrat in their local elections because they're concerned about abortion rights and democracy but won't do it for Joe Biden because he's old or even senile doesn't make a lot of sense. Biden did too much good poo poo to enumerate here. Democrats have been very enthusiastic since Trump was elected. This is not to say that Biden's issues don't matter or that the perception that Biden is demented is not a negative. It's just that everything is so, so much worse for Trump. Trump is guilty of sexual abuse, will have to put up hundreds of millions while he fruitlessly fights his guilty verdicts (which means liquidating buildings? he doesn't have cash like that). There will be nonstop coverage of the numerous Trump trials of the man wanting to become POTUS. Trump will continue to melt down over E Jean Carroll and remind voters that he's a guilty rapist. The GOP raised as much cash last year as Democrats raised last quarter (some of which that will have to cover Trump's many legal bills). Don't tell me there's enthusiasm for Trump or there isn't any for Biden.
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Feb 9, 2024 14:32
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FlamingLiberal posted:There is significant evidence in polling that Biden’s age is a problem for him, and on top of that, people are pissed at inflation and despite it subsiding, Biden is getting zero credit for it Inflation was at its peak and most shocking while the stock market hit its low in October 2022 and eggs were gold nuggets. A month later, Republicans barely won the House and Democrats made gains everywhere else. You mean to tell me that after two years of inflation subsiding, new market highs, and Trump getting the book thrown at him, Republicans are more likely to prevail this time? I'm sorry, but the trend is clear: electoral catastrophe for the Republicans since Trump's first election.
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Feb 9, 2024 14:50
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Tatsuta Age posted:Do you guys watch the nightly news at all? The national ones? Every single night it's pieces from people in swing states, talking about how "the economy is bad, and I think maybe Trump would be better on this as president". Yes, I do, especially around October 2022. Nonstop recession news, stock market lows, people complaining about egg prices, highest inflation of my lifetime, migrant marauders apparently going around killing people, just nonstop misery both real and imagined, and Republicans lost the election the month after. It was supposed to be an easy win. It wasn't any better for them last year. Edit: Kchama posted:Was he? Even with this? I mean, the polling we have been shown that seems to get everyone terrified is that Biden is mildly behind Trump despite being the so-called 'most unpopular president in history' which doesn't seem to be bode very well for Trump, or even Haley. If they can barely muster a lead at the time that an incumbent president is at their typical lowest popularity, then what are they going to do when campaigning actually starts and people are certain it is Trump versus Biden? We should also note that it's not just Biden who's a little behind vs Trump in the polls. The Fox News poll from November had ALL Democrats losing to Trump, including Newsom, with Manchin coming closest but still 2 points behind. Look, if you want to believe this, be my guest, but these polls are not showing reality, and people who use the polls to poo poo on Biden as a candidate have to admit that the polls are apparently showing a Democrat problem and not a Biden problem. (Which is absurd.) Edit 2: S&P just hit 5000. 😎 small butter fucked around with this message at 15:35 on Feb 9, 2024 |
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Feb 9, 2024 15:29
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FistEnergy posted:It would be helpful for you to look at this from the opposite direction: 1. Trump won the counties that COVID was hitting the hardest. You can make the argument that reasonable people were mad about Trump's handling of COVID but Trump's voters were mad that COVID was being taken too seriously. 2. Trump's weaknesses haven't been dulled considering that this is the first time that the criminal that everyone called as such is finally facing justice with 91 felony charges. If anything, people are reminded what kind of POS this convicted rapist is. 3. The polling advantage is quite literally a coin flip at this point. Wait until the summer for reliable polling. 4. I think that given Republicans' routs since 2017, Trump losing in 2020, Republicans losing last year and getting swung on +11, and Trump literally facing four criminal trials while waiting for his businesses to get liquidated is the real denial about Trump's chances here.
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Feb 9, 2024 15:53
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World Famous W posted:stocks don't feed people's family, fuel their cars, or pay their rent Completely agreed - but this is a good talking point because the reporting on a good market drives sentiment to some degree, as does a cratering market. small butter fucked around with this message at 01:20 on Feb 10, 2024 |
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Feb 9, 2024 23:32
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I have a question for anyone mentioning the polls. Maybe I'm missing something, but is there any evidence that polls this far out have any predictive value? I thought that it's been settled that polls only start to get somewhat predictive at the 200-day mark, meaning anything right now is a coin flip. What I am seeing are Democrats overperforming and Republicans underperforming. THIS has traditionally been predictive of the subsequent election, as much as polls two weeks before the election. What's really "head in the sand" are comments like "the trials won't matter." Trump has 91 felony charges against him. He will have to put up hundreds of millions of dollars into escrow soon to pay for his fraud and rape that's he's already been convicted of. Saying that he's just been getting away with it and will continue to do so misses like the past 4 years. Trump lost in 2020, got impeached twice, was ordered to pay $92m at this point with another $300m-$500m coming up, and he has 4 felony indictments against him. His candidates keep losing hard. Republicans are a loving mess all due to Trump. How are those not repercussions?
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Feb 10, 2024 03:31
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cdc posted:I’m Danish and almost 50 years old. I’ve been interested in politics and global history almost all my life as long as I can remember. A lot of us understand this and know that normally left-leaning people not voting for Biden often comes from a place of extreme privilege. This is true even when people bring up Gaza, since Trump would be even worse on the issue. Putin is dangerous, must be stopped, and the way to do that is to arm Ukraine and have full Democratic control of the government. Trump would be worse on absolutely everything.
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Feb 11, 2024 00:20
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Senate Cum Dump posted:it's a sad commentary on the state of US (and world) politics that Donald Trump is the harm reduction candidate in 2024, particularly for foreign policy This looks like bait, but for anyone curious about the numbers, Trump surpassed all 8 years of Obama's drone strikes in the first 2 years of his presidency while Biden's don't even register on the chart.
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Feb 11, 2024 05:48
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Senate Cum Dump posted:Number of drone strikes is hardly the only or most important metric for judging a president's foreign policy. I would point instead towards Biden's saber-rattling toward China and Russia--quite a bit more than saber rattling you could argue, but ratcheting up tensions in general. Also, y'know, the genocide in Gaza. There's no guarantee that Trump would be all that much better but given his interest in making "deals" I think he might be more open to sending Jared Kushner to work with the Saudis and pressure Netanyahu into a ceasefire. Yes, you can also measure by civilian deaths from American military operations, which are also much lower under Biden. Trump laid the foundation for the October 7 attack with his numerous dumb moves like moving the embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing the Golan Heights, and egging on the settlers. This attack led to the war in Gaza, which Trump would not and could not have stopped (and which he helped start). Not sure what "saber rattling" is going on with China, but there's a separate genocide happening there with the Uighurs for years now, so you should find your nearest Chinese embassy to protest. If you're referring to America arming Taiwan, yes, that's a great policy to protect one of the most important and democratic countries from an authoritarian oppressor. The US should saber rattle vs Russia and arm Ukraine to the teeth. Not sure what you're getting at here, as stopping Russia prevents even more war and bloodshed. You're not making any sense here.
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Feb 11, 2024 06:12
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Mormon Star Wars posted:Yes. My point is, that you are making the same trade-off. In your post, you said: No, because the choice is between "hurt Gaza" and "hurt Gaza and hurt Ukraine and restart the drone wars that Biden ended, etc." So one is objectively better than the other. Voting for Biden isn't a vote to hurt Gaza or making some kind of decision about whose lives we are valuing vs others because the only other alternative is the guy who will do a lot more damage. You'd have a point if there was a viable magical "don't hurt anyone" candidate (which is also impossible).
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Feb 11, 2024 17:57
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Mormon Star Wars posted:Right, so in your calculus, "hurt Gaza" has zero moral weight since you think it's inevitable. Others don't agree and think that voting, or threatening votes, can actually affect change, so they don't consider the genocide inevitable and thus worthy of consideration. It's not shocking that people attribute moral weight to a genocide. No, it has moral weight, it's just that the outcome is the same for this particular conflict (and arguably worse) but much worse for the others, not to mention everything else domesrically like the millions of people suffering because, say, Republicans refuse to expand Medicaid in their states that the Democratic president gave money for and created a law allowing them to do so. It doesn't matter who's in agreement with the reality that only Biden or Trump will be president in 2025. Also, the October 7 attack that led to the Israeli campaign in Gaza was not inevitable, but it was stirred by Trump via various policies and declarations when he was President. By the way, voting shaming is moral, good, and just, and should be done more frequently . I shame people for many things like saying racist poo poo all the time and will continue to do so. So if I shame a racist because of their personal views, why wouldn't I shame someone who will help enact said racist policies like deporting protesting Palestinians and enacting another Muslim Ban by staying home or actively campaigning against Biden "but from the left"? Shame these people. Shame all of them.
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Feb 11, 2024 18:32
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BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:It cannot have moral weight under this thinking, because the ultimate conclusion is that as long as the two candidates hold the same position, the position is irrelevant, no matter how odious. It ceases to be a factor. Therein lies your faulty assumption and your argument that comes tumbling down once its stilts are poked. There is no such line when there are two possible outcomes and one is objectively, unquestionably better than the other and when there's so much weight in one choice vs the other. Sure, there's a red line for me to, say, not support a novelist who was accused of rape by not buying their books, but the only thing that will happen is that this novelist's writing career will suffer and I won't get the books that I really wanted. What's happening in Gaza is the default Israeli response to the worst antisemitic attack since WW2. By "default," I mean that it would have happened under Trump, Biden, and Bernie because Israel is a still democratic country that has its own agency, and regardless of what some posters think, a people with a very difficult history who will respond harshly to violent threats. So again, you will have a very long parade of American leaders who will either do nothing or do little to stop Israel from killing civilians, while offering very different policy outcomes for everything else. Not sure where a red line enters the equation in which someone will be president. Main Paineframe posted:I also like how you've completely ignored the fact that the genocide didn't start in October 2023 and won't end when a ceasefire happens. Agitating for a ceasefire for humanitarian reasons is one thing, but don't pretend it'll end the genocide in Gaza. Trump and Obama both supported the genocide in Gaza, along with almost every member of Congress in the last few decades, and all of a sudden it's becoming a dealbreaker in only this one particular election? I'm deeply worried that people on the left are going to use Gaza as an excuse to help get Trump back into office, and then go back to not caring about Gaza at all, secure in the knowledge that they managed to find themselves an excuse to not vote for Biden despite the fact that he's responded to most of their domestic policy demands. It's nice that supporting genocides has suddenly become a dealbreaker among people who've happily voted for pro-genocide presidents and members of Congress in the past, but I can't help but notice how often it's coming from people who've hated Biden since 2019 and have consistently taken every excuse they can find to advocate opposing him. It's not exactly persuasive when someone with a NoJoe 2020 tag suggests that an event that happened in 2023 is the reason they can't possibly justify voting for Biden. I'm rather concerned that all the leftists who suddenly discovered a deep concern about Gaza a few months ago are going to express that concern solely through leaving the "President" slot on their ballot blank, pat themselves on the back for doing their part to stop genocide, and then forget all about Palestine and go back to ranting about student loans or railroad unions or something. Overturning the overwhelming American political consensus in favor of Israel is a large undertaking that'll probably take several Congressional election cycles (because the true root of it is in Congress, not in the presidency!). To drive the point further, this "discovery" about why NoJoes suddenly cannot vote for Joe come 2024 is not very convincing. Some of these same people defend the pro-genocide, pro-slavery, pro-starvation Houthis for example, as well as make arguments for why we should stop arming Ukraine or why the Uighur genocide is not really a genocide. The obvious, obvious common thread here is support for America's adversaries like Russia and China and weakening of America's allies like Israel in a bid for a multi-polar world. Not that Israel doesn't do Very Bad Things, because they do and have been doing very bad things to the Palestinians for a very long time, but the outrage seems extremely selective. There are people who think that Israel is the worst country in the world and should be brought to heel while Russia should be placated, even though Russia is arguably responsible for more misery now than Israel ever would be in its entire existence. small butter fucked around with this message at 19:29 on Feb 11, 2024 |
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Feb 11, 2024 19:27
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Majorian posted:I haven't "demanded" that of everyone; specific posters made the positive claim that Trump would be much, much worse than Biden on Gaza (not just "slightly" or "marginally" worse), and I wanted to learn why they believed that. For example: Look, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to understand that Trump is uniquely terrible, and from that, terrible poo poo follows. Especially when he's flagrantly Islamophobic. There's tons of heinous poo poo that he's done and promised to do regarding Palestine and the ME: 1. Trump rescinded aid to Palestine and promised to do so again. Biden not only reinstated it but added 50% to it. 2. Trump promised to deport Palestinians who protest the war. 3. Trump promised to reinstate the Muslim Ban and add Palestinians to that list. This will obviously affect those fleeing the war and the Palestinian families already here who still have family back home. 4. Trump had a 5x rate of yearly drone strikes compared to Obama and exceeded Obama's drone strikes in his first two years in office while Biden almost completely stopped them. 5. Trump assassinated Soleimani and we should be thankful that COVID and restraint allowed Iran not to escalate the situation further. We can go on like this for a long time.
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Feb 11, 2024 23:48
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MonsieurChoc posted:This is gonna be my last post in the thread cause I’m just getting angrier and that’s not gonna be helpful to anyone. Just please stop supporting genocide. Poor you thinks that you can absolve yourself by burying your head in the sand. Just because the trolley can only be diverted after one group of people has already been killed doesn't mean that you shouldn't do anything about the two other groups after them.
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Feb 12, 2024 02:05
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MonsieurChoc posted:You're the ones burying your head in the sand as you powerslide the trolley to murder as many people as possible, while I'm the one going hey, the trolley has brakes, we should stop it. Stop it... how? By giving control to the person who wants to plow that trolley into as many people as possible, foreign and domestic, as a matter of policy? Edit: misquoted small butter fucked around with this message at 03:12 on Feb 12, 2024 |
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Feb 12, 2024 03:09
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Axetrain posted:Biden supporters are the brain broken ones, they don't have anything more than genocide defense at this point. Also in Trump's theoretical Genocide+1 they will be doing the same thing they always do, fully supporting the mass murder of brown people abroad. There's nothing theoretical about Trump exceeding Obama's drone strikes in his first 2 years, nor Biden pretty much ending them, nor Trump assassinating Soleimani which may have led to Oct 7 and what you're seeing in Gaza right now.
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Feb 12, 2024 04:38
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zoux posted:Nobody's numbers are doing better than Biden. There isn't some other Dem candidate or governor that's raking in the small dollar donations and packing rallies. I don't know if they're still polling other non-Biden names, but Whitmer and Newsome and whoever else weren't improving on Biden's polling at all. This is just not true. Back in November, there was a Fox News poll that showed that the best candidate vs Donald J Trump is not Joe Biden, but Joe Manchin. Unfortunately, he was also behind Trump by 2 points. https://nypost.com/2023/11/16/news/trump-beats-biden-newsom-harris-manchin-in-2024-poll/ For everyone worried about Biden's chances, they need to coalesce around Joe Manchin.
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Feb 13, 2024 18:19
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James Garfield posted:One of the big Data Pundit takes right now is that Democrats are going to lose because people who don't vote in special elections are Republicans, so you can expect some of those even if Suozzi wins They keep saying this, but historically special election wins have tracked subsequent presidential wins. Unless something has changed in the past few years, this correlation has held true for the 2020 election as well.
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Feb 14, 2024 01:10
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L. Ron DeSantis posted:Regardless of who would've won, that election was unique enough that it wouldn't have meant anything for November unless one candidate won by a large margin. But a win is a win. Enough of this. Democrats winning in the midterms. Democrats winning in special elections in 2023. Democrats winning in special elections in 2024. Democrats winning in bad weather. Democrats winning in good weather. Democrats winning very strange seats. Democrats winning very normal seats. Democrats also retained control of the PA House with a +35 win in a +10 Biden district. What's the common thread here? Democrats winning, and they keep on winning. But I'm sure that the people who voted for almost-senior citizen centrist Zionist "close the border" Suozzi are not going to vote for Biden because he's old or Gaza or something.
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Feb 14, 2024 06:02
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Shammypants posted:Considering it was the best turnout Republicans have had since 2020, and their best shot at showing Democrats they can win, yea they got smoked. In an off-year election, no less. I think that people forget that the common wisdom has been that Democrats don't vote in off-year elections and that the incumbent party loses to the challengers during off-year elections and midterms. But every single year since 2017 except 2021 this has not been true. Of course, the common denominator here is Trump and what he has wrought.
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Feb 17, 2024 21:14
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Ms Adequate posted:With the usual modern caveat that we're on the border of the Cool Zone and conventional wisdom feels a lot less reliable than it used to: Cataclysmic. The GOP is already hugely behind on fundraising - your vague recollection is correct - and I think at least some part of their post-2016 election struggles have to be laid at the door of their financial woes. Combined with the white-hot hatred so many have for Trump and the continuing anger over them killing Roe which all keeps Dems seriously fired up, and the apparent disdain for Trump that much of the billionaire class has developed, losing any of their limited financial resources this year is going to be desperately painful for the GOP. The interesting thing here is that Republicans won big the following year in 1994 and also won the House and finally captured the Senate in 2014. Of course, these were off-year elections and Democrats have been doing very well in those now.
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Feb 19, 2024 19:31
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Failed Imagineer posted:This is just asking "Why Are Democrats?"- their whole deal is a slavish, self-immolating commitment to imagined Sorkin-ite ideals that were never actually the bipartisan consensus. Not really. I don't like the idea of gerrymandering even if the other side does it and a lot of Democrats are this way. If a Democrat supports or doesn't support gerrymandering to equalize the electoral playing field, I understand either way. You're basically asking that a district in NY be made less democratic because a district in WI is also less democratic even though these are two different sets of people that have nothing to do with one another. I lean towards doing our own gerrymandering but I understand if others do not.
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Feb 19, 2024 20:49
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Automata 10 Pack posted:also i don’t get the framing of these redistricting fixes as “republican gerrymandering blowing up in their faces”. they got to own Wisconsin for 12 years and will do it again when they’re able to. which’ll probably be sooner rather than later when we’re looking at how 2024 is shaking out How is 2024 shaking out? Democrats just won a major House race by 2x what the polls showed and it wasn't even close. The Biden-Burisma FBI informant was charged with making up the corruption story. Trump was just handed a half a billion dollar set of judgements against him that he's scrambling to figure out how to pay for. Trump is now the first "billionaire" GoFundMe bitch. Trump is guilty of sexual abuse and fraud in the eyes of voters. Classified documents trial just got a date for May, hush money trial starting in just weeks. RNC is broke and the DNC raised in a quarter what the RNC raised for the entire year. Stock market record highs, employment records, lowest inflation in the West, people feeling better about the economy. Last year, Protasiewicz won by double digits in WI in what was supposed to be a close race, not to mention the +11 Democratic swing in special elections nationwide. How is 2024 shaking out? small butter fucked around with this message at 00:20 on Feb 20, 2024 |
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Feb 20, 2024 00:16
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While the above is undoubtedly true, my read on it is exactly why Trump will lose and why it will be so obvious in retrospect. I mean, come on - unpopular LOSER whose billionaire reputation was sullied. A guy who's facing 91 felony charges. Someone who has to rely on his cult to get him elected because he's so toxic to everyone else and because Republicans have turned into such morons. A convicted sexual abuser and fraudster. This will play so, so poorly in the general. As we get closer to the election, the polls will slowly start to reflect this.
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Feb 20, 2024 01:02
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:The thing about this is, when Trump is on the ballot the Republicans still have massive turnout. It's just when he isn't his people don't show AND all the people Trump pissed off do still show up, reliably. But when Trump is on the ballot, he gets people to also vote against him. I don't think that you can say that Trump got all the people who he pissed off to show up. Not even close! Plenty of only general election voters are some form of pissed at him or just hate him enough to vote against him. To be clear, Biden won the popular vote by a greater margin than Obama did in 2012. And while Trump set record turnouts for Republicans he did the same for Democrats as well. I really don't think it was Biden driving people to vote 80m+ for him.
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Feb 20, 2024 02:47
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Dapper_Swindler posted:this. I think yeah trump can win and i think the GOP does win the senate but i think the GOP and trump are probably hosed this year. to win trump needs the indiependents and moderates to flip for him and i think that could happen IF trump hadnt pulled january 6th and the various aftermath, i think he would have a better shot, but that happened and the GOP had doubled down hard and etc. also last couple years of election have went pretty well for dems even in years they were supposed to be blown out. Why do you think Republicans will take the Senate? Manchin is a loss, so we're back to 50-50, but if Biden wins, I'm pretty sure that Sherrod Brown and John Tester are not going anywhere and that Kari Lake loses in AZ.
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Feb 20, 2024 02:59
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koolkal posted:
Regarding Suozzi and NY-3, I actually don't think you can compare it to Biden in 2020. That's because there was a heavy shift in NY to Republicans in 2022, so heavy that it's likely that NY (and to some degree, CA) cost Democrats the House. Democrats overperformed in 2022 nationwide but underperformed in these two states. So this makes the Democratic swing in NY-03 that more impressive to me. Interesting about the Democrats underperforming in 2024 so far. I will say that regarding the special elections being good predictors of the general, this applies much more so when the overperformance is by a large margin. When it's within a few points, special elections don't predict as well. There was only one time since the 80s or 90s that the special election results had a large swing that did not pan out in the subsequent election and that was in 1998, after Clinton's impeachment (Democrats won that year when Republicans won the previous year). But that was also not a general election. Democratic overperformance in 2022 and 2023 qualify as large swings (+11 in 2023) so it's very likely that Democrats win in 2024 just by historical precedent. Edit: regarding D underperformance in 2024 so far, it looks like Democrats still managed to flip 2 seats while Republicans flipped just one. Maybe the flipped seats were swing seats and the others were not so contested (phone posting so I'm not checking now). It is telling, I think, that the hottest election of 2024 was won by a Democrat in a swing seat and he managed to 2x his polls. small butter fucked around with this message at 04:45 on Feb 20, 2024 |
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Feb 20, 2024 04:00
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Why does the far right get voted in in Sweden or Switzerland? Aren't they happy with free healthcare and worker rights that Americans can only dream of? Norway saw one of the worst far right terror attacks ever and conservatives recently gained there. But there's practically no homeless people there (cold climate, I know), the schools are great and teachers are respected, etc.
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Feb 25, 2024 21:27
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Eric Cantonese posted:So how long will it take for Michigan primary numbers to come in? Not sure, but NY Times has the counter going now. What do you think would be a good showing for Biden?
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Feb 28, 2024 02:51
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Obama had about 12% uncommitted in 2012. What was "uncommitted" in MI in 2012? What was that about?
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Feb 28, 2024 03:08
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Nothing in particular. There's just a baseline of people voting uncommitted in non-competitive primaries. I don't understand - is "uncommitted" generally a thing? Is it a Michigan thing? This is the first I've ever heard of it. E: why did Obama only get around 174k votes in MI in 2012? Is the turnout that much higher this time around or was 2012 low because it was a caucus? small butter fucked around with this message at 05:56 on Feb 28, 2024 |
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Feb 28, 2024 05:49
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Stabbey_the_Clown posted:Turnout for Party X presidential primaries tends to be lower when there's an incumbent President of Party X. To elaborate further, Biden ran in a more-or-less uncontested primary. (This is why people are making comparisons to Obama in 2012 instead of Biden-Bernie (and everyone else) in 2020). This is because he's an incumbent and incumbents generally don't get chalengers beyond small third-party candidates. With Trump, you have the Republican party ripping themselves to shreds about the role that a convicted fraudster and sexual abuser who's facing 91 felony charges spanning 4 separate indictments should play in their party. Hence, an actual primary, and the base really wanting to show that Trump is our guy while the probably slightly less psychopathic among them registering their vote for Haley. It's going to get a much higher turnout because there's an opportunity for an upset and something to actually argue about.
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Feb 28, 2024 15:18
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B B posted:Nate is right. There's really no reason to fret over what ~100,000 voters are going to do in Michigan. I will keep saying this to everyone who will listen: the polls are still not predictive yet and are literal coin flips. They start to get marginally predictive around mid-April, not now, and their predictive power will increase very slowly but linearly until election day. https://archives.cjr.org/united_states_project/its_way_too_early_for_2016_polls_to_be_predictive.php quote:These matchups may be fun to speculate about, but the evidence suggests that even national trial heat polls conducted this far in advance of a presidential election are completely uninformative about its outcome. (Individual state trial heats are likely to be even less useful.) In their book The Timeline of Presidential Elections, the political scientists Christopher Wlezien and Robert Erikson find that polls conducted even 300 days before an election have virtually no predictive power; their forecasting power comes later in a campaign:  Never forget Clinton winning by 10+ in August 2016.
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Feb 28, 2024 19:07
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James Garfield posted:Also if you're going to use the Michigan primary to predict the general election, it's only fair to include that Trump has underperformed the polls in every primary so far and did so by double digits yesterday. That probably doesn't mean anything for November, but neither does the vote uncommitted campaign. Interesting. Do you have any good primary polls to share of the states so far?
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Feb 28, 2024 21:11
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zoux posted:No, we're simply seeing the largest racial party realignment in history as black and hispanic americans are deserting the Democratic party in droves, and the only place it ever appears are in polling xtabs Where did you find that image? Is it part of a larger article?
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Mar 2, 2024 19:06
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Shammypants posted:To me this data is a clear continuation of the "Uncommitted" efforts of Michigan. From my experience and looking around online proactively it seems that Black Americans have been likely to take up the fight of the Palestinians in the current conflict and the polls reflects a temporary urging of Biden to do something or they'll walk. Maybe I am wrong but probably not far off. Similar polls show that Biden slipped and Trump seemingly picked up voters, but when given ranked choice, only 12% said they would choose Trump, 6% RFK and 7% Cornel West (link broken I will try to fix). In each of these polls where Trump initially appears to pick up Black voters support, in later questions he's usually sitting at 12%, which is still 2% above previous years but not as substantial as it appears. The issue with this is that the polls have been bad for Biden pre-October 7 and bad for Democrats pre-midterms, but here they are overperforming during the highest inflation of our lifetime. There is no evidence that Gaza has moved the needle on anything.
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Mar 2, 2024 23:52
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Ogmius815 posted:You know that inflation has been pretty close to 3% for about 8 months now right? I know that’s above the 2% the fed says it wants but it’s hardly the 9% or so it was in 2022. Yes - Democrats more or less won in November 2022 which was a month after the peak (and a month after the stock market trough). It feels like the highest inflation for many people still considering that prices and interest rates have only gone up since then, and Democrats won nationwide in November of last year.
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Mar 3, 2024 00:23
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Shooting Blanks posted:A lot of the current price rises are due to companies realizing that there is an effective corporate oligarchy in the US, and many consumers are tolerating (not enjoying!) higher prices because they have few options. Biden is expected to address this during his SOTU next week. And this isn't some hidden action by the companies, there are plenty of reports out there of CEOs defending pushing prices as high as possible, saying that Americans are OK eating cornflakes for dinner, etc. I agree with all of that. I'm just saying that given everything that's happened, the party in power doing as well as they have is incredible.
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Mar 3, 2024 00:34
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Skex posted:It boggles my loving mind how much energy people who claim to be progressive/ leftist/socialist expend so much loving effort into undermining our only non-violent chance at stopping the Fash from getting full control and unhindered access to the powerful and effective war machine on the planet. No, no, you don't understand! Trump winning will make people vote HARDER next time and put a real progressive in after they've had enough! Just like helping Trump win in 2016 by not voting and calling Clinton corrupt led to Trump policies and actions that Iran said led to October 7 and Israel killing 31k Palestinians, so now Palestinians will go that much harder for their own homeland! Wait... nevermind, wrong victims of my accelerationism. Let me go withhold my vote from the guy I didn't help elect to demand a ceasefire that he has no real power to enact to stop the killing that's happening as a result of the guy that I did help elect. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 3, 2024 04:52
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