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this isn't any sort of projection it's just someone's half baked guess
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Mar 10, 2024 10:53
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https://www.news.com.au/finance/wor...4ae2d09076d8da6 the obvious guess would be that the libertarians are going to run this guy as their vic senate candidate next year - he's their current federal party secretary and lives in victoria. he's a former president of the young liberals who did extensive fraud as a travel agent and has a bunch of drug trafficking offenses.
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Mar 15, 2024 07:42
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Anidav posted:I doubt the LNP will lose. They have spent millions on this election whereas Labor have only spent thousands. labor's actually been spending nearly as much as the lnp according to the official disclosures, though you certainly wouldn't know it outside a few wards like northgate? they're certainly not trying very hard in general i don't think lnp will lose mayor but they might lose control of council if it's a good day for the greens, who will gain a few wards at minimum, and may propel labor into winning a few via preferences. there's also a few close lnp/labor wards that labor may be able to pick up despite their lacklustre campaign. i have to assume labor likes to have an lnp council as a scapegoat and doesn't think anything council does really matters. near-certain greens gains: walter-taylor paddington likely greens gain: coorparoo possible greens gain: central very likely either greens or labor gain, more likely labor: enoggera possible labor gains: northgate calamvale marchant then on a really bad night for the lnp you might see a ward like holland park fall (to either labor or greens, more likely labor), and there's a miniscule chance pullenvale works out for the greens, but i don't expect it to be a really bad night for the lnp, only sort of bad?
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Mar 16, 2024 03:57
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Anidav posted:The polling done indicated a 10 percent swing to the greens for lord Mayor but it's come off Labor rather than the LNP. the single public poll had a 1% swing against the lnp in the mayoral race, 5% swing against labor, and 6% swing to the greens, which would easily retain it for the lnp yeah, so it would be a huge shock if they lost the mayoralty. wards are a much more interesting story though and that same poll suggests lnp will lose at least a few.
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Mar 16, 2024 05:11
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i thought electric wrigglies was just listing the arguments dutton was making not agreeing with them idk but maybe i'm wrong there
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Mar 16, 2024 08:20
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abetz is probably going to be premier within a few years and it will last like a week
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Mar 23, 2024 12:43
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festivals are bad and i don't personally care if they die, but the industry is absolutely struggling right now, there have been a lot of prominent festivals cancelled lately i would prefer for the government to support the music industry in a way that supports the artists and isn't just propping up festivals
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Apr 1, 2024 02:42
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yeah seven is as bad as sky is these days, or even sometimes worse because it has more reach
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Apr 3, 2024 10:26
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I would blow Dane Cook posted:What are the seats that the Greens are aiming to pick up next election? I assume there is someone here who would know. macnamara, wills, richmond and moreton should be the main targets. macnamara and richmond only need a small labor-to-greens swing each on current boundaries - for macnamara it's 0.32%, for richmond it's 1.27%. wills is a bit of a longer shot but they've come somewhat close to winning it in the past and the current political climate around israel/palestine does provide a serious opportunity there - the south of the seat is already very good for the greens (typical inner city leftie demographics) but there's a significant muslim population in the north of the seat that has previously been very loyal to labor, and it's the one seat that combines those two demographics. current vic greens state leader samantha ratnam is expected to be the candidate there. moreton is also a longer shot but it's the most favourable brisbane seat they haven't won yet and isn't totally out of reach. the incumbent there is also expected to be retiring. higgins also looks good on the current boundaries (2.4% labor to greens swing required) but the redistribution is likely to significantly affect that (almost certainly for the worse) or even abolish the seat, and the vic greens really can't afford to split off resources into a third seat campaign (though they might anyway, there's a long history of poor campaign strategy there) lih fucked around with this message at 07:24 on Apr 9, 2024 |
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Apr 9, 2024 07:19
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it's the darebin greens (mostly overlapping with the seat of cooper) who have a long history of self-sabotage and fuckups
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Apr 9, 2024 15:21
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freebooter posted:Any assumption that Israel/Palestine is a seat-deciding issue, resulting in Wills becoming a lock for the Greens, presumably has to lead to the opposite conclusion for Macnamara labor & liberal attacks on the greens in macnamara have focused on their position on israel/palestine for many elections now, so there are going to be very very few previous greens voters in macnamara who have only suddenly realised they disagree with the greens on israel/palestine. to win macnamara, the greens only need there to be a very small swing against labor - it doesn't matter whether it goes to the liberals or to the greens, either would mean the greens finish ahead of labor and win via labor preferences. the part of the seat with a large jewish population is the part that's by far the strongest for the liberals too. this is all very different to wills which is a straight labor/greens contest, the libs are very firmly third there (but their preferences generally favour labor which means the greens need a sizeable primary lead). a large labor-to-greens swing is needed but that is never going to be more achievable than next election.
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Apr 11, 2024 01:36
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the bishop stabbed there is very much a far-right conspiracist type and so there's now an angry right-wing mob around the church that cops are struggling to keep under control
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Apr 15, 2024 12:32
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JBP posted:What the hell it's turned into a full on brawl with the cops? Are these Christian fascists that march around Sydney these days? yeah it's the very same, the stabbed bishop is affiliated with them they're trying to block the ambulance with the perpetrator
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Apr 15, 2024 12:53
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Paracausal posted:https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-22/esafety-commissioner-seeks-injunction-against-x/103755874 the crazy thing here is that esafety is demanding twitter ban the stabbing video globally
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Apr 22, 2024 11:53
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| # ¿ May 17, 2024 15:24 |
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negative gearing is bad but the cgt discount is a much bigger problem, yeah, and even reforming both of them won't be enough to fix the housing crisis or anything
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Apr 23, 2024 06:51
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