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Shageletic posted:That's kind of tame by Cinemo Discusso standards. state of hysteria being that some people find it odd that 30k+ a year are injured or killed by firearms without any change in sight? edit: lmao thats not even correct, its 30k+ deaths a year, the injuries not resulting in death are 3-4 times that per year
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 02:27 |
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# ? Jun 9, 2024 20:07 |
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Pictured below: Shocking image of the American government executing its citizens without due process.
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 02:28 |
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Combed Thunderclap posted:Honestly, you see this happen all the time in academia as well as the miscellaneous sphere of intelligensia that circles academe. Someone comes up with a single good idea or model (in Silver's case, a basic polling model that, shocker, actually controls for polling house accuracy), everyone sucks their dick for a few years and throws accolades and money at them, eventually their bubble bursts as people slowly realize that a single good model/idea is not intrinsically a predictor of future performance for, say, running a major media site that revolves around turning "data"/sports stats into "news" as fast as humanly possible. (Really good in-depth data analysis and research can take years.) What's the deal with Jared Diamond. I thought Guns Steel and Germs was fascinating. Did he go dumb afterwards? I have Collapse collecting dust on my shelf, is it worth reading?
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 02:29 |
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Ogmius815 posted:Nate Silver is good at one thing: using polls to project presidential elections. Once he can start doing that again D&D will come crawling back. Alternatively you can follow Voteomatic which did unweighted averages of all polls and also got the numbers exactly
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 02:29 |
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Typical Pubbie posted:Pictured below: Shocking image of the American government executing its citizens without due process. you mean
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 02:31 |
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joeburz posted:state of hysteria being that some people find it odd that 30k+ a year are injured or killed by firearms without any change in sight? I'm talking about mass shooting, not generalized gun violence. And something needs to be done in either case.
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 02:31 |
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That is more accurate, yes.
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 02:37 |
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Typical Pubbie posted:Pictured below: Shocking image of the American government executing its citizens without due process. Hit em again Willie!!! joeburz posted:you mean
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 02:39 |
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joeburz posted:you mean He was a hardened criminal and thus deserved it.
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 02:41 |
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Happy birthday, Ted Cruz.
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 02:48 |
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Taerkar posted:He was a hardened criminal and thus deserved it. I'm pretty sure the Fox News take was "the liberals killed him by taxing cigarettes." That or "he died because he was fat."
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 02:52 |
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Fiction posted:I think TDD is just angry that Obama will never have a catastrophic foreign policy fuckup that will temper the Democrats' election chances for decades to come. *checks congressional, state legislative, gubernatorial elections since 2009* *silently mouths "wow"*
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 02:56 |
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Junkyard Poodle posted:What's the deal with Jared Diamond. I thought Guns Steel and Germs was fascinating. Did he go dumb afterwards? I have Collapse collecting dust on my shelf, is it worth reading? GG&S is a good introduction to the effect of geography on the rise and fall of civilizations but is hardly the end all-be all it was once touted as.
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 02:58 |
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WhiskeyJuvenile posted:Due process isn't a citizen-only thing. Never said it was.
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 02:59 |
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Any of you ever see Secret Honor? A one man show with Nixon going crazy. It's on Hulu and it owns
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 03:02 |
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Raskolnikov38 posted:GG&S is a good introduction to the effect of geography on the rise and fall of civilizations but is hardly the end all-be all it was once touted as. It should be treated as like a 101-level book.
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 03:05 |
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It'll be pretty fun to watch the ol' goon consensus swing back to Silver being right and good after July.
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 03:07 |
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SSNeoman posted:Never said it was. then why is "we killed an American" mentioned as if it matters?
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 03:13 |
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The Iron Rose posted:oh good we're talking about drones again I get to repost my standard "the extrajudicial argument is total bullshit" Thank you for this post, this is a good post.
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 03:13 |
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fishmech posted:It should be treated as like a 101-level book. What's a good follow up?
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 03:15 |
The Iron Rose posted:oh good we're talking about drones again I get to repost my standard "the extrajudicial argument is total bullshit" This is a really good post. Thanks.
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 03:54 |
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I have good news and bad news, the good news is that if you were curious about the inner working of the Kathryn Knott trial it's pretty much all out in the open now. https://www.reddit.com/r/philadelphia/comments/3xdp7b/i_was_juror_4_on_the_kathryn_knott_trial_ama/ The bad news is that because of this she might get off. From what it sounds they thought she did it and wanted to convict on the more serious charges but one juror hosed everything up, in addition to this juror possibly further loving things up.
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 03:59 |
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FDR: "I welcome their hatred." Bernie: "I welcome their dislike." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZkSDctzd7_k
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 04:16 |
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Oh hey... Muslims and Sikhs just lost the right to opt-out of those airport scanners. Yeah, yeah, the regulation only states broadly that TSA can require some passengers to go through the machines or be refused boarding "as warranted by security considerations in order to safeguard transportation security", but I think it's pretty easy to figure out what those "security considerations" will be.
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 04:18 |
MaxxBot posted:I have good news and bad news, the good news is that if you were curious about the inner working of the Kathryn Knott trial it's pretty much all out in the open now. The OP got taken down. What did it say?
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 04:21 |
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All of the details are still there in the posts by [deleted]quote:See I dont know her, never heard of her before this trial, and luckily for her I based all of my judgement on her from the trial alone. With only those few days, it seems like I drew the same opinion of her that everyone who follows the news did. When she took the stand, it was clear she was a liar. etc, there's a ton more. It's ironic that they sound like they were better educated and able to analyze this case than some of the other jurors described but then went out and made the idiotic decision to make an AMA before the trial was even over, possibly ruining the entire case.
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 04:35 |
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Joementum posted:It'll be pretty fun to watch the ol' goon consensus swing back to Silver being right and good after July. I don't doubt that the GOP establishment will do everything it can to screw him (or schlong him, rather) out of the nomination. I also realize that earlier polls are not terribly predictive. But the GOPe is not all-powerful, and the "too early to poll" excuse is wearing thin - we're 5 1/2 weeks from IA and 6 1/2 weeks from NH. Your obstinance here (and Nate's) is starting to look less like a rational certainty in your belief, and more like a commitment to a narrative that you have, or that you think you have, staked your ego and your reputation on. If you end up right, great. FWIW, personally I reckon the odds of that at greater than half. But especially in 538's case they are staking out a position that's going to make them look pretty stupid if they're wrong - and not because they were wrong but because they were so sure they were right.
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 04:36 |
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TheDisreputableDog posted:*checks congressional, state legislative, gubernatorial elections since 2009* If you think the current political economy for the Republicans is sustainable when their current front runner is Donald J Trump then I don't know what to tell you
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 04:37 |
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Pacific Standard has a summary of a series of ProPublica and NPR articles this year, detailing the dismantling of worker's comp. Some of this has been discussed in passing already.
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 04:41 |
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Junkyard Poodle posted:What's the deal with Jared Diamond. I thought Guns Steel and Germs was fascinating. Did he go dumb afterwards? I have Collapse collecting dust on my shelf, is it worth reading? Guns Germs and Steel was garbage as far as academic history is concerned, in that it takes a strawman of what historians believed 60 years ago, exaggerates it further, and then goes too far and too simplistically against it. That's fine insofar as it's pop history, but not easy to reproduce.
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 04:42 |
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berzerker posted:Guns Germs and Steel was garbage as far as academic history is concerned, in that it takes a strawman of what historians believed 60 years ago, exaggerates it further, and then goes too far and too simplistically against it. That's fine insofar as it's pop history, but not easy to reproduce. Are there any more academic books that try to cover the same subject matter? I really enjoyed the book but I know that it has a lot of flaws.
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 04:45 |
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Kilroy posted:Even if you're right, and "The Party Decides" hypothesis wins the day, the certainty with which you guys speak is grating as gently caress, and not remotely justified. Trump's been leading nationally in the polls since summer, has had a solid lead for that long in NH as well, leads in SC, has a lock on poor Republicans with no degree, ties among Republican degree-holders, etc etc. I actually meant because come July he'll be telling goons what they want to hear (Hillary will win) rather than what they don't want to hear (Donald Trump won't win). I spent most of 2012 telling people that Nate's proprietary polling model was needlessly complex and overstated Obama's lead.
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 04:48 |
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MaxxBot posted:Are there any more academic books that try to cover the same subject matter? I really enjoyed the book but I know that it has a lot of flaws. Subject matter being what? Historical geography? Overall civilizational theories? I could look up the former, but for the latter, not really. Historians don't believe (these days) in grand theories and simple monocausal explanations. History just isn't that simple, however satisfying it is to think you understand everything via one theory or book. (This is also why dogmatic Marxism was so popular and is dumb and bad history.) But poli sci and sociology loving love broad overstated theories so probably they could point you to stuff like that, as long as you also like opaque and yet thin quantitative data tables "supporting" these too general theories.
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 04:52 |
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Joementum posted:I spent most of 2012 telling people that Nate's proprietary polling model was needlessly complex and overstated Obama's lead. I thought you spent most of 2012 deleting anime bestiality posts? Or was that not the time you were a mod?
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 04:54 |
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MaxxBot posted:Are there any more academic books that try to cover the same subject matter? I really enjoyed the book but I know that it has a lot of flaws. The book thread used to (probably still does) recommend Fourteen Ninety-Two by James Blaut.
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 04:55 |
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Rappaport posted:I thought you spent most of 2012 deleting anime bestiality posts? Or was that not the time you were a mod? That happened in 2013 and they were ponies not animes you Philistine!
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 04:57 |
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Joementum posted:That happened in 2013 and they were ponies not animes you Philistine! Hey, you deleted them, it's not like I could go back and look >:|
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 04:58 |
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ComradeCosmobot posted:Pacific Standard has a summary of a series of ProPublica and NPR articles this year, detailing the dismantling of worker's comp. Some of this has been discussed in passing already. poo poo like this pisses me off. Party of fiscal responsibility strikes again by ignoring a root cause, letting it blow up into a nasty mess, causing people suffer, and lastly giving tax payers the outrageous bill. PS I'm extra sensitive to this since my dad was nearly killed on the job a few days before Christmas when I was a kid. Islam is the Lite Rock FM fucked around with this message at 05:01 on Dec 23, 2015 |
# ? Dec 23, 2015 04:59 |
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DemeaninDemon posted:poo poo like this pisses me off. Party of fiscal responsibility strikes again by ignoring a root cause, letting it blow up into a nasty mess, causing people suffer, and lastly giving tax payers the outrageous bill. Republicans are only fiscally conservative towards the 1%. If you're not a millionaire then
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# ? Dec 23, 2015 05:31 |
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# ? Jun 9, 2024 20:07 |
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The Iron Rose posted:oh good we're talking about drones again I get to repost my standard "the extrajudicial argument is total bullshit" This is an awesome post. It has actually led me to reconsider my position on the al-Awlaki drone strike. What rubs me the wrong way, however, is two things. First, is the level of secrecy involved in modern anti-terrorism drone strikes versus the "send in the military" actions of the civil war. And second is the lack of confrontation in the drone strikes. Perhaps these come from a total misunderstanding, but let me elaborate. 1, Secrecy) The modern drone campaign is more or less based on the government saying "this person is doing or was planning to do really bad things that we can't reveal for good reasons." Rather than during the civil war when a vast majority (if not all?) of people killed were clearly rebelling. 2, Confrontation) When the army shows up at your house to drag you away for organizing a rebellion, you can at least go peacefully. On the other hand, when a bomb shows up out of seemingly no where with your morning coffee you can't choose to surrender. These distinctions are important to me because the combination of the two means that the government can simply say that anyone, anywhere was doing bad things that cannot be revealed and those people don't even get the chance to profess their innocence peacefully. Article III, Section 3 of the Constitution exists to prevent the government from simply saying that so-and-so is guilty of treason and was shot down for good reason. I'm not saying that section applies here, but legal or not, I don't like the road the al-Awlaki drone strike leads down and I feel like we have been down this road before. Edit: Since it appears to have already come up I want to make clear that the foregoing is not an argument for whether the al-Awlaki drone strike was legal or not based on a difference in war making during the civil war and today. I am actually rather convinced by The Iron Rose's argument that the drone strike was probably legal. What concerns me is that the legality is based on laws that were enacted when life in general and warfare in particular were very different. And further, how the current methods being used in the "war on terror" work is similar to the way that treason "worked" pre-Constitution. A system so feared/detested that the conditions for conviction were explicitly laid out in the constitution in order to prevent it. MickeyFinn fucked around with this message at 06:19 on Dec 23, 2015 |
# ? Dec 23, 2015 05:39 |