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Randarkman posted:Dude, you and I are both Norwegian. In no way is our situation remotely comparable to Russia's Eastern European neighbors. it was a nonsense post, i respond with a technicality. i agree that the situation is substantially different to that of former warsaw pact countries.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:29
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Russian interpretation of Minsk 2 is end of Ukraine's sovereignty.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:30
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Count Roland posted:I find myself thinking Biden should go through with sanctions here. As someone who cut his teeth politically in '02 and '03 against the war this is an uncomfortable thought to have. Why does punishing poor people in Russia sound better to you now than it did in 20 years ago? That seems like an odd moral line to change.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:31
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V. Illych L. posted:formal implementation of the russian interpretation of minsk 2, with modifications (some kind of international force rather than a russian one as guarantor would have to happen, for instance). alternatively, NATO could declare an end to expansion pending [conditions] and a return of the donbass areas to ukraine. some kind of formal penalty would have to be worked out in case of treaty violations from either party. ukraine gets a sweetheart gas contract. idk i'm not an international diplomat, but they resolved the cuban missile crisis where the actual fate of the world was at stake, there could've been more serious engagement in this situation than what was given. Problems here are that Minsk 2 means a loss of sovereignty to Ukraine, since it requires that Ukraine becomes a confederation where Russian proxies would have foreign and economic policy veto. Modifying it to remove that would make the argument unacceptable for Russia, which strong armed Merkel and Obama into pressuring Ukraine to sign this as if Russia wasn’t a party to the conflict at all. NATO non-expansion? That would mean that Russia gets to dictate NATO policies, which Americans and every state to join after 1991 would go nuclear over. I don’t personally believe there were any realistic outs, and the list of demands was just a setup for a fight.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:31
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https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1495866021793644545?s=20&t=wjIqDGaaMgumEjqepdu0sQ https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1495866024398409733?s=20&t=wjIqDGaaMgumEjqepdu0sQ
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Feb 22, 2022 00:31
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Jaxyon posted:Why does punishing poor people in Russia sound better to you now than it did in 20 years ago? Why does bankrolling Russian army sound like a moral thing to do to you? (Well, mostly asking a certain German chancellor, not you).
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Feb 22, 2022 00:32
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HonorableTB posted:Also, shoutout to the (probably) P-3 that flew out of Sigonella Naval Air Station in Italy and is drawing penises because it knows so many people are checking the flight trackers I have an old picture somewhere from mont st michel of a 100 meter penis with the word 'italia' drawn into the sand-flat never change, italy
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Feb 22, 2022 00:32
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ResetEra is definitely pissed at leftists for “licking by Putins rear end in a top hat”. Surprised that this thread doesn’t have many “  well tankies?” I’m proud SA.(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 22, 2022 00:32
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V. Illych L. posted:the speech isn't that material imo, the main problem is the massive escalation of russian soldiers openly violating ukrainian sovereignty. i honestly don't know how we get back from this, there are far too many moving pieces I disagree Putin's attitude towards Ukraine is immaterial. He is a true believer in that they should not exist. And their existence is a stain on Russian history. Therefore any demands that come from him and the Kremlin are not made in good faith or has any interest in a peaceable situation between Russia and Ukraine.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:33
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Shes Not Impressed posted:I disagree Putin's attitude towards Ukraine is immaterial. He is a true believer in that they should not exist. And their existence is a stain on Russian history. And he openly has said this multiple times, including in the speech today. Anybody pretending Russia is wanting to negotiate in good faith is full of poo poo.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:34
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Protip for Biden: outflank Putin by recognizing the two new republics
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Feb 22, 2022 00:35
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OddObserver posted:Why does bankrolling Russian army sound like a moral thing to do to you? (Well, mostly asking a certain German chancellor, not you). I mean, maybe sanctions will totally work this time!
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Feb 22, 2022 00:35
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punk rebel ecks posted:ResetEra is definitely pissed at leftists for “licking by Putins rear end in a top hat”. Do not import offsite drama.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:36
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Problems here are that Minsk 2 means a loss of sovereignty to Ukraine, since it requires that Ukraine becomes a confederation where Russian proxies would have foreign and economic policy veto. Modifying it to remove that would make the argument unacceptable for Russia, which strong armed Merkel and Obama into pressuring Ukraine to sign this as if Russia wasn’t a party to the conflict at all. a great many things involve a loss of sovereignty. NATO and EU membership, for instance, though they are not otherwise comparable, involve pretty significant concessions of sovereignty. it's not the end of the world, though obviously not ideal. i actually think i'm in substantial agreement on the other point - NATO's refusal to budge here was entirely predictable, and the russians *must* have predicted it. my point is that NATO *could* have negotiated and ended up with something with which all parties could more or less live (like russia could very simply have not escalated the situation - again, i absolutely agree that the russians are the assholes here). it was not in their interest to do so, however, and so they didn't.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:36
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V. Illych L. posted:formal implementation of the russian interpretation of minsk 2, with modifications (some kind of international force rather than a russian one as guarantor would have to happen, for instance). alternatively, NATO could declare an end to expansion pending [conditions] and a return of the donbass areas to ukraine. some kind of formal penalty would have to be worked out in case of treaty violations from either party. ukraine gets a sweetheart gas contract. idk i'm not an international diplomat, but they resolved the cuban missile crisis where the actual fate of the world was at stake, there could've been more serious engagement in this situation than what was given. The problem is that the fate of the world isn't at stake here bc NATO is barely even willing to contemplate sanctions as we are currently seeing. So Putin has no particular reason to back down from his Ukraine is not a real country and if they behave like one that's treason position which he has been consistently publicly espousing for quite a while now.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:37
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Jaxyon posted:I mean, maybe sanctions will totally work this time! Scholz account spotted
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Feb 22, 2022 00:37
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V. Illych L. posted:it was a nonsense post, i respond with a technicality. i agree that the situation is substantially different to that of former warsaw pact countries. When you write stuff like "NATO is making the world a worse place", do you ever consider whether your attitude might be different if your own comfort, safety, family, friends, or history were on the line?
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Feb 22, 2022 00:40
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Scholz account spotted They said sanctions, not doing nothing.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:40
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Rinkles posted:When you write stuff like "NATO is making the world a worse place", do you ever consider whether your attitude might be difference if your own comfort, safety, family, friends, or history were on the line? i'm not sure that the people of libya agree with your perspective on this
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Feb 22, 2022 00:42
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To me it feels at this stage that the US will agree to literally anything as long as a full-out conflict is avoided, just like it did when Crimea was annexed and the proxy war originally began. The EU is also clearly too fractured for sanctions to actually work, too few member states are willing to accept the consequences of cutting the gas. How no one is seeing that this is just a slower but eerily similar repeat of the lead-up to WW2 is beyond me.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:42
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OddObserver posted:They said sanctions, not doing nothing. I'm sorry did you not see the helmet shipment?!
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Feb 22, 2022 00:43
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V. Illych L. posted:a great many things involve a loss of sovereignty. NATO and EU membership, for instance, though they are not otherwise comparable, involve pretty significant concessions of sovereignty. it's not the end of the world, though obviously not ideal. NATO and EU memberships are expression of sovereign will of respective countries, and by no means permanent. U.K. just stood up and left EU, case in point. Ukraine voted for EU association back in 2014, and since then the pro-EU attitude has strengthened essentially in a linear manner. Giving Russian puppets right to veto that would not be an expression of the will of Ukrainian people. And in that sense, it’s quite close to the end of the world for Ukraine, as it would be confined to what Russia deems permissible for it. As I recall it, you’re Eurosceptic, so with you living in a rich and well adjusted country there may be a significant difference in perspective over what benefits can EU membership especially bring to Eastern Europe, and what are the likely alternatives.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:43
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:I'm sorry did you not see the helmet shipment?! 5000 helmets is a significant part of the German military material in working order. At least 25%.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:48
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Haramstufe Rot posted:5000 helmets is a significant part of the German military material in working order. At least 25%. Didn’t Germany have some trouble properly equipping the 900 people German reinforcements sent to Lithuania?
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Feb 22, 2022 00:49
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Didn’t Germany have some trouble properly equipping the 900 people German reinforcements sent to Lithuania? Lidl didn't have brooms this week
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Feb 22, 2022 00:51
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https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1495790874235744258?s=20&t=wjIqDGaaMgumEjqepdu0sQ This entire thread is really good, goes over who these people are.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:51
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Scholz account spotted I'm not sure how many levels of foreign policy irony we're working on here. To be clear I think economic sanctions are mostly punishing the average person in countries that don't agree with their leadership already, such as in Iran, and are cruel and ineffective.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:53
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i know this situation is very grave and serious but i will never be able to look at a photo of that Jack Donaghy "power move" conference and not laugh
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Feb 22, 2022 00:55
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CommieGIR posted:https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1495866021793644545?s=20&t=wjIqDGaaMgumEjqepdu0sQ Is the chance of a New Cold War actually possible from this? Also, why does Vindman believe there could be a hot war when Biden already said he doesn't want U.S. soldiers in Ukraine to avoid WW3?
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Feb 22, 2022 00:55
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A small incursion into Kyiv wouldn't warrant a need for sanctions.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:56
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Willo567 posted:Is the chance of a New Cold War actually possible from this? Also, why does Vindman believe there could be a hot war when Biden already said he doesn't want U.S. soldiers in Ukraine to avoid WW3? Not sure why Vindman thinks about a hot war, but a new Cold War is clearly possible. He'll, I'd be receptive to an argument for that to have been the case for some time already.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:57
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Willo567 posted:Is the chance of a New Cold War actually possible from this? Also, why does Vindman believe there could be a hot war when Biden already said he doesn't want U.S. soldiers in Ukraine to avoid WW3? Re: the hot war part, he's writing emotionally rather than rationally.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:58
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I know get it. Putin kicks up the ceasefire violations to the max. Moves tanks and troops into the border with Ukraine. Calls Ukraine firing back an attack on Russian soil And there we go. Pretext and occupation are "justified"
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Feb 22, 2022 00:58
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V. Illych L. posted:it was a nonsense post, i respond with a technicality. i agree that the situation is substantially different to that of former warsaw pact countries. it was not and neither was your original post, and we all know that.
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Feb 22, 2022 00:59
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V. Illych L. posted:it was a nonsense post, i respond with a technicality. i agree that the situation is substantially different to that of former warsaw pact countries. I would argue that Putin's actions today also change the situation for neutral countries (which are basically just Finland and Sweden at this point). Neutrality is kinda nice, but there's a limit to how well complete neutrality can work as the dictator next door becomes more and more unhinged Right now Putin, by escalating like this, is basically telling various countries to choose between himself and Nato, and my choice would be Nato, no contest
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Feb 22, 2022 01:00
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MiddleOne posted:To me it feels at this stage that the US will agree to literally anything as long as a full-out conflict is avoided, just like it did when Crimea was annexed and the proxy war originally began. The EU is also clearly too fractured for sanctions to actually work, too few member states are willing to accept the consequences of cutting the gas. There are similarities, but A, as ambitious and amoral as Putin is, he doesn't seem to want to conquer anywhere outside of the former USSR; B, there's a larger power imbalance between NATO and Russia than there was between the Axis Powers and the rest of the world in the 1930s; and C, the pre-WWII didn't have nuclear deterrence and MAD. There's not going to be a WWIII over Ukraine.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:00
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Jaxyon posted:I'm not sure how many levels of foreign policy irony we're working on here. the same is also true of wars and political aggression. putin respects only force and the ability to make things worse. If he responded to high-minded rhetoric about trying to help the marginalized and downtrodden that would be great but hes getting ready to launch the biggest European war since world war 2 after giving an hour-long speech about how Ukrainians aren't real. He does not respond to anything but fear so the options are sanctions, commit actual troops and get into a shooting war ourselves, or send Ukrainians our thoughts and prayers.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:00
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Vindman has been arguing this for a while and is virtually the only one. Whenever I hear him on a panel, all the other speakers are quick to distance themselves from his desire for extreme aggression and his claims of a new "hot war."
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Feb 22, 2022 01:01
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cinci zoo sniper posted:NATO and EU memberships are expression of sovereign will of respective countries, and by no means permanent. U.K. just stood up and left EU, case in point. i have a very hard time seeing the EU accept a new country full of pretty highly skilled labour with low wage expectations under present conditions under any circumstances, let alone one with institutions as weak as they are in ukraine, just as i have a very hard time seeing NATO actually move forward with ukrainian membership for obvious reasons. the extent to which NATO membership (or, say, the inordinately complicated trade deals that keep getting secretly negotiated) is an expression of the sovereign will of respective countries is also a matter of some historical debate in certain cases, but i do understand your point and accept it to an extent. the issue is that the sovereignty of a country can be expressed in various ways, according to that country's constitution and its binding international agreements. there's nothing very new about foreign elements having a say in a country's constitution, though it's clearly not optimal and any agreement would've had to have serious sweeteners for the ukrainians. my position remains that putin is probably after 1) boosting his domestic position with national chauvinist fervour and 2) leaving a legacy as the guy who Restored Russia's Place In The World or some such guff. under this interpretation, there's a spectrum of off-ramps which were available well short of the level of escalation we're seeing now. that we've reached our present point is mainly the fault of russia, but NATO has also been happy to let it get here. El Perkele posted:it was not and neither was your original post, and we all know that. "if circumstances were different your opinion would be different" is not an actual argument, it's an appeal to perspective. that would be valid if i were saying that i think everyone in eastern europe who's pro-NATO is stupid or evil, but i'm not. i'm saying that NATO, in sum, is not a force for good in the world but for bad. e. i actually need to go to bed now, hope the world doesn't explode by the time i wake up
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Feb 22, 2022 01:02
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Jaxyon posted:I'm not sure how many levels of foreign policy irony we're working on here. fwiw I agree with that. Whatever punitive measures the international community takes will only further immiserate vulnerable Russians while at best mildly inconveniencing the business dealings of the ruling Oligarchs, who are already used to evading sanctions. There are measures that could be taken targeting technology and specific state enterprises with better chances of accomplishing anything without harming ordinary Russians, but that takes more effort and doesn't look as impressive, and might end up being only partially effective if Asia doesn't jump onboard anyway.
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Feb 22, 2022 01:05
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