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Young Freud posted:Yeah, four of them, compared to the 359 or so fielded by the Russians. Any source giving exact or near exact numbers as to how many aircraft Ukraine has left is probably suspect.
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Feb 25, 2022 04:47
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TulliusCicero posted:Holy poo poo that's actually huge if true They're not sanctioning Russian imports, but rather she said, halting the export to them of mechanical "instruments" that Russia needs to maintain and run their operations.
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Feb 25, 2022 04:48
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Ignore the account, the article is the important part. https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1497054231794274304 quote:“Ukrainian cybercommunity! It’s time to get involved in the cyber defense of our country,” the post read, asking hackers and cybersecurity experts to submit an application via Google docs, listing their specialties, such as malware development, and professional references.
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Feb 25, 2022 04:48
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TulliusCicero posted:Moscow's intelligence seems completely off throughout this whole thing, their material seems to be uhhhh lacking if that transport plane had it's own tail fall off in Russian airspace, the strategic/ tactical calls are all over the place... I suspect the west/us/uk have spies/moles all over the higher echelons of the Russian military and intelligence. So I wouldn’t be shocked if we have their battle plans as they are being written and we give them to Ukraine. TulliusCicero posted:Thiis whole thing seems just... utterly chaotic and slapped together
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Feb 25, 2022 04:48
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Telsa Cola posted:Cnn are affected by the fog of war just like everyone else, I dunno why folks think they are like the holy grail of information in this. It's not CNN itself that is the source through. They are simply repeating what they are told by the Ukrainian Deputy Interior Minister. So of course even that person could be wrong about things but it's not a source I would immediately dismiss.
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Feb 25, 2022 04:48
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the popes toes posted:They're not sanctioning Russian imports, but rather she said, halting the export to them of mechanical "instruments" that Russia needs to maintain and run their operations. I'd assume any equipment they need they can just import from China... no?
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Feb 25, 2022 04:49
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Acebuckeye13 posted:Unless it's actually a Ukrainian fighter that got smacked by a long-range missile Ah, hell. Unfortunately, though it's nice to hope otherwise, I think this is the most likely scenario for what happened: the Ukranian fighter was doing a low-level, low-speed combat air patrol, got picked up by a distant Russian SAM, and probably didn't begin evading/dropping flares and chaff until it was already too late.
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Feb 25, 2022 04:54
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Even this plan seems weirdly haphazard is the thing. Like, did he think all he had to do was move troops in and they'd all be greeted as liberators or something? Move troops in and take the capital as quickly as possible. Depose the current regime, install a russian-friendly puppet regime. Leave behind a much smaller peacekeeping force while the puppet regime uses the separatist army suppress their own people. It's the classic playbook. Luckily 1968 probably had longterm negative consequences for the USSR, and we can only hope it does in this case as well.
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Feb 25, 2022 04:55
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Acebuckeye13 posted:Ah, hell. Unfortunately, though it's nice to hope otherwise, I think this is the most likely scenario for what happened: the Ukranian fighter was doing a low-level, low-speed combat air patrol, got picked up by a distant Russian SAM, and probably didn't begin evading/dropping flares and chaff until it was already too late. Has it been reported that they are running CAP flights in the city. That seems pretty weird to be doing currently.
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Feb 25, 2022 04:57
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buglord posted:As someone incredibly ignorant of diplomacy, Ideal outcome is people stop doing the thing sanctions are about - then you just remove then, and restore friendship or whatever. Everyone is indeed connected, and much of economy works in “just in time” fashion, so for many goods there’s no ready second source. Consequently, full on trade embargo would be incredibly damaging to everyone at least somewhat adjacent. That is why many, myself included, will likely complain about EU package when details are released tomorrow - they will unlikely touch natural gas or SWIFT, since either of those would require EU to be willing to absorb damage. The same goes for Americans not sanctioning Russian oil. Consequently, EU and US are trying to walk tight rope that has the following priorities: don’t piss off people at home > affect Putin’s decision making > don’t piss off Ukrainians. Given that EU’s meatiest sanction part likely will be the financial sanctions, it looks like they want to pressure oligarchs indeed. American plan is similar, I think, but I don’t remember the details. Problem is that Putin is a dictator, who enforces stability of his government with ruthless force. Therefore, he may just have one-two oligarchs thrown in prison in they get rowdy. In general, it’s difficult to predict what effect sanctions will have, and on whom. Right now we’re waiting for the capital market trading to open tomorrow, to see where current sanctions take Russian stock market index and their currency. If it holds steady, or Russia really starts bombing everyone to hell, further sanctions rounds may follow, but the appetite for a more serious escalation in that regard doesn’t seem to be there yet.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:00
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https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv...er%3D65lastpost https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497035179315142657 This seems possible.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:00
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buglord posted:As someone incredibly ignorant of diplomacy, The things they are being put in place are absolutely not at all painless. Denying business VISA is a huge big deal. It'll make oligarchs or really anyone in Russia that does international business much more difficult and probably poorer. The idea is with enough pressure they'll persuade them to push out Putin or something smaller like a prisoner exchange, ceasefire, etc.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:00
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how did Louis CK's show go?
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Feb 25, 2022 05:00
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The news media coverage was decent the first night, with correspondents on the ground and footage most of the time. Now it’s 90% talking heads regurgitating opinions and talking points, it’s insufferable. This thread is way more informative.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:02
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Small White Dragon posted:I'd assume any equipment they need they can just import from China... no? EU package seems to include semiconductors and aviation goods, which is high tech stuff that China cannot make. For example, all “forging machines” for semiconductor chips are made by the same company in the Netherlands. We need to wait for afternoon now, when we’ll get EU sanctions details, to tell how hard really is the oil stuff hitting, and so on.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:02
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:how did Louis CK's show go? Bombed
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Feb 25, 2022 05:02
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:how did Louis CK's show go? Presumably it bombed. e: 
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Feb 25, 2022 05:03
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv...er%3D65lastpost https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497035179315142657 This seems possible. Russia might be stupid enough to think that the new government would have public support or at least acceptance. Who the gently caress would this even be for? The west would never accept it or drop the sanctions.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:04
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Pook Good Mook posted:Russia might be stupid enough to think that the new government would have public support or at least acceptance. If anything, West would be forced to escalate sanctions over half of the country being annexed. That would be like 20-30 million people, compared to 3-4 million in the proxies.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:05
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The phrase "if true" has been getting a hell of a workout in the last day or so.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:06
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German politicians would be confronted dealing with actual Berlin Wall 2.0, in the most literal interpretation of those alleged plots. That’s not something any politician in Germany will be able to “but gas” over.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:06
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Pook Good Mook posted:Russia might be stupid enough to think that the new government would have public support or at least acceptance. For Russia. They'd presumably own the coastline and Ukraine would be a landlocked economic mess.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:07
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv...er%3D65lastpost https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497035179315142657 This seems possible. ...that's the plan? Hail mary the capital and create East and West Ukraine, maybe? He may have a reputation as a cold autocrat/ power projector but he's an absolute poo poo battlefield/ strategic commander. Hitler was too Putin, you're in good company This is some very optimistic poo poo for a main plan 10,000 paratroopers vs how many millions of angry Ukranians in the city? Encircled by Ukranian defense forces? Does he base all of his plan off his jack-off fantasies from James Bond movies?
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Feb 25, 2022 05:08
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Powered Descent posted:The phrase "if true" has been getting a hell of a workout in the last
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Feb 25, 2022 05:08
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I'm pretty far removed from the cold war age wise so I just realized this must be insane for people who lived through tensions with the USSR.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:09
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ummel posted:For Russia. They'd presumably own the coastline and Ukraine would be a landlocked economic mess. Ya but I mean, why bother? Just annex at that point. No one will bother to talk with the new government and Ukrainians would never accept it.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:09
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cinci zoo sniper posted:EU package seems to include semiconductors and aviation goods, which is high tech stuff that China cannot make. For example, all “forging machines” for semiconductor chips are made by the same company in the Netherlands. We need to wait for afternoon now, when we’ll get EU sanctions details, to tell how hard really is the oil stuff hitting, and so on. So basically a whole bunch of nothing. Most of the EU’s sanctions don’t even make a dent outside of a 10 year+ time frame, and the sanctions will have been lifted by then. All of the EU countries who decided to make themselves beholden to Putin’s LNG bare responsibility for this.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:09
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Powered Descent posted:The phrase "if true" has been getting a hell of a workout in the last day or so. big if true
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Feb 25, 2022 05:10
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TulliusCicero posted:...that's the plan? Hail mary the capital and create East and West Ukraine, maybe? Wikipedia says the Kyiv police force alone has 50k employees.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:10
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Pook Good Mook posted:Ya but I mean, why bother? Just annex at that point. No one will bother to talk with the new government and Ukrainians would never accept it. Agreed. But Putin loves his plausible deniability, no matter how ridiculous.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:11
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A full on refusal to import their oil would so shock the markets that the price disruptions would erode popular support. It's much the same thing with Germany: people paying more than they can afford for heating fuel will not support the measures. It's selfish and realistic.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:11
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TyrantWD posted:So basically a whole bunch of nothing. Most of the EU’s sanctions don’t even make a dent outside of a 10 year+ time frame, and the sanctions will have been lifted by then. Financial sanctions will be hitting with the first second, and VDL is saying that something like 70% of banking sector + bunch of state enterprises are targeted. I’m personally frustrated with the EU response so far, but we’ll have to wait for the details of the package, EU afternoon.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:11
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Pook Good Mook posted:Wikipedia says the Kyiv police force alone has 50k employees. How effective are civilian police forces against mechanized units?
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Feb 25, 2022 05:12
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the popes toes posted:A full on refusal to import their oil would so shock the markets that the price disruptions would erode popular support. It's much the same thing with Germany: people paying more than they can afford for heating fuel will not support the measures. It's selfish and realistic. Full on refusal to import oil would be reckless. An export levy on it, however, would’ve just squeezed Russians, imo - but I’m not an economist. Full on refusal to import natural gas or maybe a SWIFT expulsion, on the other hand, is something we can, and imo should, do. Italy and Germany were opposed to sanctioning gas, Germany - SWIFT. Scholz offered his sage wisdom with “we need to leave some sanctions for later”.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:15
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Vahakyla posted:How effective are civilian police forces against mechanized units? My understanding is that they have mandatory military service and have been pretty free with handing out military grade infantry equipment so while probably not at parity with invading Russian troops they are probably better off than you would think. So I guess not great but better than just cops.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:16
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Ukraine can loving brawl.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:16
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Vahakyla posted:How effective are civilian police forces against mechanized units? There’s also territorial defence forces, national guard, and army in Kyiv. I doubt anyone plans to have traffic cops fight Spetsnaz.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:17
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv...er%3D65lastpost https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497035179315142657 This seems possible. Had at least one failed airport invasion so far. Turning the airports into meat grinders for a leader facing immediate economic consequences who needs this fight not to be prolonged sounds like a pretty good defensive strategy. And given we know Putin is unwilling to alter plans despite massive intelligence leaks, it wouldn't surprise me if he still went through with it.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:18
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Vahakyla posted:How effective are civilian police forces against mechanized units? US police have tanks and missiles. 
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Feb 25, 2022 05:18
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Gin_Rummy posted:Maybe a dumb question, but honestly why doesn’t the EU just straight up sanction oil? Don’t Norway and/or other Scandinavian countries have quite a bit of it that they could massively profit from without Russia in the equation? Or is that false info that I am wrong about? The same reason why America didn't put oil sanctions on Saudi Arabia with the invasion of Yemen. cr0y posted:Ukraine can loving brawl. Imagine if their "joke" Stephen Colbert president pulls a Winter War.
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Feb 25, 2022 05:20
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