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Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

ethanol posted:

Oh yes, definitely.. they were there on day 1 most importantly, which is.. brave beyond words. I don’t think beforehand strategically many expected it be enough. This will be studied for decades.

And to your second point I definitely don’t know what the composition of their air defense is, but it seems to be working

They're keeping what they have pretty well under wraps for good reason - but they started the war with around 100 short/medium range Tor systems, 72 medium range Buk systems, and 250 long range S-300 systems (this is after reforms cleared out the nonfunctional junk). That's a whole lotta SAMs, and while the S-300 isn't especially easy to hide the Buk and Tor systems are reasonably mobile and can operate independently if needed.

From what we have seen it seems like they've got a lot of SAM systems moving around or hidden with radars off, only radiating when Russian aircraft or missiles are identified in their area - probably by visual spotters on the ground. This would make it super difficult for Russia to find them except in the handful of minutes it takes them to light up a radar, find and lock up a target they already have intel on, and guide a missile into it. And then they're gone again.

Warbadger fucked around with this message at 14:51 on Feb 27, 2022

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canepazzo
May 29, 2006



https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497929591209529347
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497929907195756546

Dante
Feb 8, 2003

Drone_Fragger posted:

How many more body bags till the military overthrows Putin, I wonder?
Losses several orders of magnitude beyond this, and probably more related to military defeats than body bags.

Dante80
Mar 23, 2015

Alchenar posted:


e: another one: https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/1497864108682715139

Greece has been traditionally very close culturally with Russia and on the dovish side of NATO, the tweeter is right this is decades of diplomacy gone to waste in a few days

Some context. 10 Greek people died from Russian bombing in a village near Mariupol. Changing our attitude towards this was pretty much expected, especially with the government in charge right now.

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


Two planes is an insane contribution especially for a small country like Greece

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

I hope it goes something like this: withdraw your forces from Ukraine and we will stop killing them.

Red
Apr 15, 2003

Yeah, great at getting us into Wawa.

But will this coincide with a ceasefire?

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

spacetoaster posted:

I would hope not. If that's how they've divided their force it's pretty dire.

For example, 75% of the American military is support troops.

Lot's and LOT'S of study of wars from the beginning of time to modern time has shown that the most decisive factor in victory is logistics. He who can get there fastest with the mostest wins.

Yeah, I'm probably wrong on that 120 000 figure. I think yesterday or the day before, the talk was that about 60 000 Russian troops in combat were now involved in actions in Ukraine, and some time late yesterday the estimate was that soon 50% of the forces would have been committed and mobilization and commitment was now stepping up. That said those combat units in quesion may very well not be 100% combat troops of course.

drunkill
Sep 25, 2007

me @ ur posting
Fallen Rib

https://twitter.com/marcbennetts1/status/1497923345765081093


Treaty of Chernobyl anybody?

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

Legitimate target more like.

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

Two planes is an insane contribution especially for a small country like Greece

I'm presuming the aid is in the planes and not the planes themselves (which wouldn't be much use for Ukraine), but yeah to be doing this on a couple of days notice means means they're doing the military equivalent of emptying their pockets out onto the floor.

Tomn
Aug 23, 2007

And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands
I really, really hope that if Putin is crazy enough to actually push the button someone in the room is just gonna go “Oh, gently caress this” and shoot him.


Huh! Wasn’t quite expecting that but if Putin’s feeling shaky and Zelensky thinks he can stop further damage to Ukraine, could be worth it on both sides. Let’s see how it goes.

a podcast for cats
Jun 22, 2005

Dogs reading from an artifact buried in the ruins of our civilization, "We were assholes- " and writing solemnly, "They were assholes."
Soiled Meat

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

Two planes is an insane contribution especially for a small country like Greece

I don't think it's the planes themselves, just their cargo.

Dante80
Mar 23, 2015

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

Two planes is an insane contribution especially for a small country like Greece

We've got a lot of eastern block weapons we are not using right now. For example, we have sent around 100 of our BMPs to the new Iraqi Army.
Most of those we have are coming from the CFE treaty sales back in the 90s.

Dante80 fucked around with this message at 15:01 on Feb 27, 2022

Kamrat
Nov 27, 2012

Thanks for playing Alone in the dark 2.

Now please fuck off
Let's hope this goes well

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


Tomn posted:

I really, really hope that if Putin is crazy enough to actually push the button someone in the room is just gonna go “Oh, gently caress this” and shoot him.

Huh! Wasn’t quite expecting that but if Putin’s feeling shaky and Zelensky thinks he can stop further damage to Ukraine, could be worth it on both sides. Let’s see how it goes.

Ukraine has a p good bargaining position right now, much better than when they discussed this on Friday, and much better than before the war even started.

punishedkissinger
Sep 20, 2017

hoping the Ukrainian delegation looks exactly like this

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

Ukraine has a p good bargaining position right now, much better than when they discussed this on Friday, and much better than before the war even started.

I hope so. Decent odds though that this is Russia seeing if Ukraine is willing to officially give something up or pause for a ceasefire that will be broken when Putin figures his forces are in a better position.

ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

Ukraine has a p good bargaining position right now, much better than when they discussed this on Friday, and much better than before the war even started.

If Putin is given anything he wants from his stated goals, demilitarization, recognition of Russian annexation of Crimea, or the Donbas it is a loss.

I would hope that sanctions would remain permanently in place if Putin is given any of that.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Red posted:

But will this coincide with a ceasefire?

No preconditions

I doubt it will do much yet, but at least it establishes a contact and it might lead to serious negotiations. That's the only road out of this.

Nenonen fucked around with this message at 15:07 on Feb 27, 2022

MadJackal
Apr 30, 2004


Huh. Maybe Putin saves face and gets his two "new countries" and the sanctions melt sooner rather than later?

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

I hope talks go well, but interesting timing on this escape

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1497934283486502916?t=HWyMp1ZK1hvQK62HX1ZB4A&s=19

Terminally Bored
Oct 31, 2011

Twenty-five dollars and a six pack to my name

ZombieLenin posted:

If Putin is given anything he wants from his stated goals, demilitarization, recognition of Russian annexation of Crimea, or the Donbas it is a loss.

I would hope that sanctions would remain permanently in place if Putin is given any of that.

Knowing Putin, he wants nothing less than Donbas.

Szmitten
Apr 26, 2008
Considering they supposedly initially thought the war would be won today and if they really didn't plan for weeks/months/years beyond, then maybe they'll just gently caress off and save face as merciful peacemakers?? But that's optimism.

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


ZombieLenin posted:

If Putin is given anything he wants from his stated goals, demilitarization, recognition of Russian annexation of Crimea, or the Donbas it is a loss.

I would hope that sanctions would remain permanently in place if Putin is given any of that.

All three of those things would probably lead to Zelensky getting ousted. That’s why he didn’t give them up when it looked like puny Ukraine would be devoured by the bear.

Judakel
Jul 29, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!

Celexi posted:

No, gently caress the DSA, " poor Russians will suffer" while Ukrainians get bombed and murdered, in their own country

That isn't the poor Russians' fault.

Kamrat
Nov 27, 2012

Thanks for playing Alone in the dark 2.

Now please fuck off
Is there a reason to meet face to face nowadays, isn't that a bit risky? I assume it's so they can sign documents and the like, but e-signatures exist nowadays, used in business all the time.

Hiekkakauppias
Mar 26, 2008

OJ's humble beginnings in acting helped prepare him for the media spotlight in Calgary
Is there a way to follow Twitter threads without constant refreshing and prompts to sign in or register? What a piece of poo poo company

I don't have an accout and don't want one either.

Trump
Jul 16, 2003

Cute

Kamrat posted:

Is there a reason to meet face to face nowadays, isn't that a bit risky? I assume it's so they can sign documents and the like, but e-signatures exist nowadays, used in business all the time.

Negotiating person to person is much easier I assume. Also less chance of spying.

A GIANT PARSNIP
Apr 13, 2010

Too much fuckin' eggnog


BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

All three of those things would probably lead to Zelensky getting ousted. That’s why he didn’t give them up when it looked like puny Ukraine would be devoured by the bear.

Would they? Say Ukraine agrees that Crimea is Russian and allows water/supply access to it, but Russia has to stop supporting the separatists and allow Ukraine to remove them. Ukraine can join the EU but agrees not to join NATO. Is that an unacceptable outcome to the Ukrainian people?

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Kamrat posted:

Is there a reason to meet face to face nowadays, isn't that a bit risky? I assume it's so they can sign documents and the like, but e-signatures exist nowadays, used in business all the time.

It's considered a sign of good faith.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

MadJackal posted:

Huh. Maybe Putin saves face and gets his two "new countries" and the sanctions melt sooner rather than later?

This seems likely. Takes DNR and LNR or gets Ukraine to release claims on Crimea. A partial and pyrrhic victory but something to bring home during the parade.

A GIANT PARSNIP
Apr 13, 2010

Too much fuckin' eggnog



Kamrat posted:

Is there a reason to meet face to face nowadays, isn't that a bit risky? I assume it's so they can sign documents and the like, but e-signatures exist nowadays, used in business all the time.


Vladimir Putin, written in DocuSign’s default cursive.

Pakled
Aug 6, 2011

WE ARE SMART

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

Would they? Say Ukraine agrees that Crimea is Russian and allows water/supply access to it, but Russia has to stop supporting the separatists and allow Ukraine to remove them. Ukraine can join the EU but agrees not to join NATO. Is that an unacceptable outcome to the Ukrainian people?

That's probably an unacceptable outcome to Russia. They want the Donbas either independent or incorporated into Russia and they want Ukraine permanently in their sphere of influence.

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

All we are going to learn from these talks is what Russia's refined war goals are. I suspect their position will be 'Zelenskyy you can go into exile and we pinky swear not to try to kill you too hard'.

BigglesSWE
Dec 2, 2014

How 'bout them hawks news huh!
Harming or killing diplomats is so insanely bad optics that it’s been followed with the harshest response conceivable historically. Ghengis Khan went berserk on the Kwarezmian Empire specifically because they killed his envoys. If Putin wants literally every single nation on Earth turn on him he’d rough up the diplomats.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Pakled posted:

That's probably an unacceptable outcome to Russia. They want the Donbas either independent or incorporated into Russia and they want Ukraine permanently in their sphere of influence.

A cool outcome that probably could have been negotiated with thermobaric bombs going into highrises

oh well

A GIANT PARSNIP
Apr 13, 2010

Too much fuckin' eggnog


Pakled posted:

That's probably an unacceptable outcome to Russia. They want the Donbas either independent or incorporated into Russia and they want Ukraine permanently in their sphere of influence.

Well yeah and they also wanted Kyiv in 24 hours. Crimea and no NATO gives Russia something and the EU and the Donbas gives Ukraine something. For the fighting to stop now there needs to be a give from both sides, otherwise we wait until one side clearly can’t fight anymore, which could take months or years.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

A GIANT PARSNIP posted:

Well yeah and they also wanted Kyiv in 24 hours. Crimea and no NATO gives Russia something and the EU and the Donbas gives Ukraine something. For the fighting to stop now there needs to be a give from both sides, otherwise we wait until one side clearly can’t fight anymore, which could take months or years.

man if only they did this discussion BEFORE the bombing

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ZombieLenin
Sep 6, 2009

"Democracy for the insignificant minority, democracy for the rich--that is the democracy of capitalist society." VI Lenin


[/quote]
Okay this one made me laugh…

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1497873265397743616?s=21

Russian forces engage in a fierce firefight with… a monument to Ukrainians who fought for the Soviet Union in Afghanistan.

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