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Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Vahakyla posted:

HOWEVER, i do think that shitposting prisoner interviews for social media is a difficult topic for Geneva Conventions that didn't necessarily see this information era. It's not that it is necessarily right, but the society even in war is so terminally online that it is kind of hard to prevent that. The POWs aren't paraded at the capitol in huge columns for propaganda reels which is what the original convention probably alluded. Yes, we shouldn't film then anyway right now, but it isn't necessarily the absolute disregard for laws of war that allows it, but more of a side effect of being terminally online.

I'm not going to get on a high horse and pretend this is the most important issue in the world, but I think Ukrainian opsec has been pretty loving tight, so those videos leaking out isn't just an inevitable byproduct of being in the internet age if videos of troop deployments or whatever aren't. If Ukraine doesn't want those videos coming out, they can presumably enforce that level of discipline too.

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Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

Hey Moktow:

Is there a way we can message you privately? I want to see if I have a way to help domestically in the US.

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe

BigBallChunkyTime posted:

10 whole guys, huh?

IRL antifa supersoldiers

Probably some mercs with nothing to do.

Relevant: https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1497987043921731599

ummel fucked around with this message at 19:09 on Feb 27, 2022

Shes Not Impressed
Apr 25, 2004


Xachariah posted:

I assume Ukraine would be in a position to avail of the aid and support of all the nations currently falling over themselves to send them billions in free military hardware, financial and operational support.

Me and other former Peace Corps Volunteers are also ready to go back and help the country in anyway we can when hostilities cease.
There's 1k members in our RPCV facebook group now coordinating with their Ukrainian friends and families, connecting them to people to stay with, transportation, etc.

Ukraine won't be alone in rebuilding.

Koos Group
Mar 6, 2013

Kavros posted:

If you were writing this as a war drama, now is the interlude where the dictator is enraged and made vulnerable by his hubrustic overextention, so he selects which loyalist general is to be scapegoated and made to fall on his own sword to reinforce that dear leader cannot fail, he can only be failed, as the remaining right hand men start to grow increasingly worried about their own skins.

So, since everything's been weaselbrained fiction since 2015, go for it. Make it reality. Which russian general is on the block to be lambasted and fired in the next 12 hours?

Please treat this seriously, in the sense that if we are to speculate about that it should be due to historical precedents, not fictional ones.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

ronya posted:

5) Other theories?

Putin may wish to keep his best, and presumably most loyal, units closer to home, both for national and personal defense.

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Mooseontheloose posted:

Hey Moktow:

Is there a way we can message you privately? I want to see if I have a way to help domestically in the US.

I think I was gifted PMs, but they don’t work.

Until I sort it out, get in touch at kylofon@gmail.com

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

the popes toes posted:

Putin may wish to keep his best, and presumably most loyal, units closer to home, both for national and personal defense.

that's not consistent with parking it for months in Belarus and Southern Russia surely

or is your theory that the failure of a quick assault and ensuing sanctions/unrest/protest has awoken that risk? That's plausible, I suppose

Vahakyla
May 3, 2013
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1497974567519801355?s=20&t=-IE_sUvOr7AAfe8FXoBtyA

Dante
Feb 8, 2003

Vahakyla posted:

HOWEVER, i do think that shitposting prisoner interviews for social media is a difficult topic for Geneva Conventions that didn't necessarily see this information era. It's not that it is necessarily right, but the society even in war is so terminally online that it is kind of hard to prevent that. The POWs aren't paraded at the capitol in huge columns for propaganda reels which is what the original convention probably alluded. Yes, we shouldn't film then anyway right now, but it isn't necessarily the absolute disregard for laws of war that allows it, but more of a side effect of being terminally online.

Again, this is not a "difficult topic" for the Geneva convention and is something that has been discussed and ratified extensively after videos and photos of PoWs were broadcast during the Vietnam war. The general rule is that photographs/videos of PoWs are only legal if they can't be individually identified. To quote of the ICRC commentary on article 13(2):

quote:

In modern conflicts, the prohibition also covers, subject to the considerations discussed below, the disclosure of photographic and video images, recordings of interrogations or private conversations or personal correspondence or any other private data, irrespective of which public communication channel is used, including the internet.

Dante fucked around with this message at 19:15 on Feb 27, 2022

Calibanibal
Aug 25, 2015

the popes toes posted:

Putin may wish to keep his best, and presumably most loyal, units closer to home, both for national and personal defense.

I'm inclined towards this theory myself, basically you let the enemy spend most of their munitions and energy on the weakest units and then sweep up. But hopefully the unexpectedly strong pushback makes Putin reconsider unleashing his 2nd wave.

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.



On mass? But I thought Russians were orthodox!

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

For anyone (like me) in the US (or where ever) with no cable DW News has English language coverage of the war live streaming on YouTube

https://youtu.be/V9KZGs1MtP4

mmkay
Oct 21, 2010

Sinteres posted:

or that blatantly funneling weapons through NATO land borders to a country he's invading

That's just a convoy of humanitarian aid, nothing to see, move along.

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.

ronya posted:

UAF now confident enough to release videos on UAV effectiveness (real or not, if it forces Russia to defend convoys, it works):

https://twitter.com/Ukraine_AF/status/1497853318458232837

more:

https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1497997019515961347

Big change relative to keeping a tight lid on drone operations in the media, I wonder what drove that decision?

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Wistful of Dollars posted:

cracking cans of surstromming and lobbing them at the enemy

This counts as chemical warfare just FYI.

ethanol
Jul 13, 2007



Sinteres posted:

I don't think we're at a point where Putin's making any credible threats in the first place, so this is kind of moot, but if he did start making those sorts of threats and saying in specific terms that he's not going to allow us to destroy his economy, or that blatantly funneling weapons through NATO land borders to a country he's invading is putting us on the brink of conflict, whether the threat works or not, I think that's categorically different from Russia using the threat of nuclear war to demand NATO withdrawal from Poland or something. Like the first two could be viewed as defensive threats attempting to restore the status quo relations between the nuclear powers (yes, even as Russia is engaged in an offensive war), while the latter would be offensive and an attempt to upset the status quo between the nuclear powers. I think even some people in this thread who are pretty unsympathetic to Russia have expressed amazement at how brazenly we're sending weapons across the border, and how it makes us a party to the war in a sense, so I don't think accepting that interpretation as valid and toning it down for the same reasons we didn't send troops in Ukraine's defense in the first place would entail a sweeping new understanding of the concept of nuclear blackmail, but rather would be a pushback at us testing the boundaries of what level of conflict falls below an escalation threshold. If Russia really does get exposed as a conventional paper tiger, they'll only have more reason to rely on their nuclear deterrent to try to re-establish some amount of credibility. But like I said, I don't think we're at a critical moment there yet.

Gee I wonder where the millions of Russian weapons that fueled the various Middle East insurgencies came from

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Calibanibal posted:

I'm inclined towards this theory myself, basically you let the enemy spend most of their munitions and energy on the weakest units and then sweep up. But hopefully the unexpectedly strong pushback makes Putin reconsider unleashing his 2nd wave.

The "weakest units" here are sporting much of the best and newest weapons in the Russian arsenal. And they do not appear to be conscripts but rather the smaller professional portion of the Russian armed forces. This doesn't at all look like sending fodder ahead of a main assault - which is itself an absolutely bonkers strategy unless the other guy is literally running out of ammunition.

At that point the second wave could very well run into better armed, entrenched, and now very experienced defenders who now also enjoy parity in numbers.

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe
https://twitter.com/EuroMaydan/status/1497994579001462795

quote:

In Dniprorudny, Zaporizhia Oblast, men from the community, led by the mayor of the Opzzh party, came out and blocked the way for Russian tanks.
The tanks retreated

A feel good post.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

ethanol posted:

Gee I wonder where the millions of Russian weapons that fueled the various Middle East insurgencies came from

If the Russian government was actively supplying them, which I don't think is clear at all, they certainly weren't making open promises of deliveries and rubbing it in our faces. Plus they obviously weren't handing out MANPADS and poo poo either way. Attacking each other covertly is part of the game great powers play with each other, and making your owns public really is an escalation in a sense, on top of the reality that you can obviously move a whole lot more when you aren't even bothering to hide it.

Blurred
Aug 26, 2004

WELL I WONNER WHAT IT'S LIIIIIKE TO BE A GOOD POSTER
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497996321516568579

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497998961000517636

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Extremely brave. Thank God we live in an age where the invaders know that they're always going to be caught on camera wherever they go.

the popes toes
Oct 10, 2004

ronya posted:

that's not consistent with parking it for months in Belarus and Southern Russia surely

or is your theory that the failure of a quick assault and ensuing sanctions/unrest/protest has awoken that risk? That's plausible, I suppose

Well I'm assuming the Russian order of battle disposed in Ukraine is very much separate from what is available. And the home defense portion is loyal and better equipped, and would not be commited to adventures. The Polish/Ukrainian corridor goes both ways and Russia has never not feared incursions. So yeah, he's keeping the good stuff home.

-Anders
Feb 1, 2007

Denmark. Wait, what?
Denmark is sending 2700 AT-4s and shipping 300 decommissioned Stingers to the US for refurbishing so they can be sent to Ukraine.

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

Love everyone in the world being completely loving baffled by Russia's attempts at warfare. Have you considered that maybe the goal is to get Ukraine so confused it just surrenders?

ummel
Jun 17, 2002

<3 Lowtax

Fun Shoe

ronya posted:

more:

[url]https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1497997019515961347[./url]

Big change relative to keeping a tight lid on drone operations in the media, I wonder what drove that decision?

How many did they have? I think I remember seeing one was down. Maybe they're out of them and the propaganda can be used.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

Brain65 posted:

I'd say they need a redesign of that APC

User, not a design error. Not much you can do to make an APC safe for an ambush with excellent AT weapons.

Tomn posted:

That would only matter if Ukraine can maintain organized staging and training areas long enough to get people up to speed while still having access to the population and potential recruits, wouldn't it? I don't know how long it takes to get "fresh volunteer" up to "can stand toe to toe with regulars" level but does Ukraine have that kind of time? I mean, hell, we were talking about some of the Soviet conscripts looking badly undertrained and those guys were recruited in December.

Maybe it doesn't take as long to train them up into effective insurgents but I still dunno if talking about the total available military age population is super useful given how fast things are moving.

Ukraine has universal male conscription. All but the youngest class of that 7 million already have a year of military training. They need to retrain them for the proper use of the panoramic night sights and fire-and-forget AT missiles, but they are not starting from scratch here. And the training level in Russia really won't be that much better.

Nazzadan
Jun 22, 2016



Pook Good Mook posted:

Someone edit Putin into the principal Skinner meme noting that the entire world is isolating Russia but concluding they're the problem.

Another goon alerted me to your post, so here you go if it wasn't already fulfilled

Calibanibal
Aug 25, 2015

-Anders posted:

Denmark is sending 2700 AT-4s and shipping 300 decommissioned Stingers to the US for refurbishing so they can be sent to Ukraine.

Normally I consider refurbished to be a great bargain, but in this case I would prefer the new in package.

Panzeh
Nov 27, 2006

"..The high ground"

Tuna-Fish posted:

User, not a design error. Not much you can do to make an APC safe for an ambush with excellent AT weapons.

Yeah, pretty much every APC in service will be destroyed by an ATGM hit. There's no way to get the vehicle in any reasonable weight and be protected against them, and the BMD-series have additional weight restrictions to their ground-based bretheren.

Cimber
Feb 3, 2014

-Anders posted:

Denmark is sending 2700 AT-4s and shipping 300 decommissioned Stingers to the US for refurbishing so they can be sent to Ukraine.

Whats the turn around time on those stingers? Probably a bit too late IMO, unless the US sends 300 good stingers to Ukraine now and works on refurbishing those other ones as replacements.

Phlegmish
Jul 2, 2011



Does the Ukrainian government still have donation links up? I know they were asking for Bitcoins (lol) yesterday. Wouldn't mind supporting them in some capacity.

NO FUCK YOU DAD
Oct 23, 2008

Cimber posted:

Whats the turn around time on those stingers? Probably a bit too late IMO, unless the US sends 300 good stingers to Ukraine now and works on refurbishing those other ones as replacements.

They're probably confident that even if the Ukrainian government does fall, there'll be rebel groups who will need arming.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

ronya posted:

more:

https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1497997019515961347

Big change relative to keeping a tight lid on drone operations in the media, I wonder what drove that decision?

That's a Buk battery getting nailed. So I guess at least that part of Ukrainian reporting on Russian losses was accurate.

Panzeh posted:

Yeah, pretty much every APC in service will be destroyed by an ATGM hit. There's no way to get the vehicle in any reasonable weight and be protected against them, and the BMD-series have additional weight restrictions to their ground-based bretheren.

Yep, even an old RPG-7 will total something like a BTR-90 or BMD much less something like what is effectively an armored truck like the Ural Typhoon. Even with ERA there's only so much you can do to save a 20mm steel plate from a HEAT warhead capable of poking a hole in 400mm+ of steel. And if your strategy is "zoom along a road toward the enemy" you better believe any AT rocket in service since the 50's is going to be extremely dangerous to you.

Warbadger fucked around with this message at 19:34 on Feb 27, 2022

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Norway also divesting from Russia.

Not sure if this is related to the sanctions or an Independent action in addition to them

https://twitter.com/bbcaaron/status/1498001028133933057?t=bAhFdHyBldyNxA7iW77cYQ&s=19

BIG FLUFFY DOG
Feb 16, 2011

On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.


Phlegmish posted:

Does the Ukrainian government still have donation links up? I know they were asking for Bitcoins (lol) yesterday. Wouldn't mind supporting them in some capacity.

Apparently the bitcoin donation was a fake made by scam artists trying to get rich

BRAKE FOR MOOSE
Jun 6, 2001

Phlegmish posted:

Does the Ukrainian government still have donation links up? I know they were asking for Bitcoins (lol) yesterday. Wouldn't mind supporting them in some capacity.

There are so many foreign NGOs you can donate to that have clear humanitarian missions and clear accounting rather than throwing it at a drat government. There's a stickied thread, or just toss it at MSF or IRC.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

ronya posted:

more:

https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/status/1497997019515961347

Big change relative to keeping a tight lid on drone operations in the media, I wonder what drove that decision?

To put this in greater context: the drone is blowing up an anti-air battery. The airborne drone. Not a shining moment for Russian forces.

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009

I've seen a few videos like this where regular citizens are stepping in front of tanks. I'm surprised as hell that the Russians haven't been shooting at them when they do that. I wonder if that speaks to the level of morale that the average Russian soldier has right now in Ukraine. Like I'm sure many of them don't really believe the bullshit they've been hearing from Russian media about Ukrainians all being Nazis and whatnot. And Ukrainians arent super foreign to Russians like they share very similar cultures and of course most Ukrainians speak Russian. It probably must feel like if American soldiers were sent to invade Canada.

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steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

Apparently the bitcoin donation was a fake made by scam artists trying to get rich

there was a legit link, but probably also a bunch of opportunist fakes

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