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dominoeffect posted:An update on the "russian army collapse": apparently the Bellingcat prediction said "another 10 days or two weeks" till they run out of logistical supplies or money and that was said in an interview on March 2nd. So, take it for what you will, but I don't know where nexta tv got the Sunday figure from. Hasn't nexta tv already been posting some wild claims before? Just take that account (heck, and all accounts) with a slab of salt. That makes a lot more sense. The US were saying the Russians had planned a 1-2 week operation so I can buy that after 3 weeks they'll be running into serious supply issues beyond whatever they'd stockpiled. At that point, sanctions may actually impact their ability to resupply, too.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:04
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A New Dad posted:people think that the way an nfz works is we say no one can fly there and then on one flies there Phone in today, Ukrainian caller was passionately calling for a no -fly zone. The presenter very patronizingly ‘corrected’ her that that would mean Ukrainian forces would not be able to get air support any more…
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Mar 4, 2022 23:06
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Chalks posted:That makes a lot more sense. The US were saying the Russians had planned a 1-2 week operation so I can buy that after 3 weeks they'll be running into serious supply issues beyond whatever they'd stockpiled. At that point, sanctions may actually impact their ability to resupply, too. Its part of why they are dragging in vehicles from as far away as the Eastern Russian coast. Although I have my doubts those vehicles are any better maintained or supplied than the ones already near or in Ukraine.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:06
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ImpAtom posted:I think a lot of people just are not able to fathom what a Nuclear weapon could really so. There is a lot of "I bet their nukes don't even work" poo poo which fails to grasp just how incredible horrible a war where Russia and the US used 1% of their arsenals would be. Nukes are something that have been tamed by time and media so the mental perception tends to land on "big boom" and the true scale of devastation. They have become jokes or penis-waving 'NUKE THE WHALES' and that impacts the risks people take. yeah it always surprises me when people have just this cartoon image of what nukes are actually like and talk about them casually. i guess it's part of the legacy of the propaganda that taught people that the bombing of hiroshima and nagasaki was "necessary"
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Mar 4, 2022 23:06
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Zelenskyi's most recent speech that is very pointed towards NATO for its ineffectiveness in protecting Ukraine makes me think he's going to budge on the issue of Ukraine's NATO membership, which also signals that Russia is willing to budge on other issues. The next round of talks is most likely going to happen on March 6, the last day before the Orthodox Great Lent, also known as the forgiving Sunday. It sure would be very symbolic if the countries managed to reach some sort of an agreement on that day.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:07
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steinrokkan posted:A map of Ukraine's natural resources spontaneously materialises in mayor Pete's office The European pride that they are rebuilding Ukraine would be something to behold. So I guess we just have to wait until Sunday.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:07
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HonorableTB posted:Can we get a ban on posting Russian propaganda? I get that most of the content here is Ukrainian propaganda but there's a difference between propaganda that consists of factual reporting confirmed by outside sources vs the propaganda of an aggressive invader I think it's fine so long as it's really clearly marked as such. The problem comes from when we think it's remotely trustworthy, especially when we're the target audience.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:08
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Paladinus posted:Zelenskyi's most recent speech that is very pointed towards NATO for its ineffectiveness in protecting Ukraine makes me think he's going to budge on the issue of Ukraine's NATO membership, which also signals that Russia is willing to budge on other issues. The next round of talks is most likely going to happen on March 6, the last day before the Orthodox Great Lent, also known as the forgiving Sunday. It sure would be very symbolic if the countries managed to reach some sort of an agreement on that day. I don't know why people keep pretending this is going to happen or that Russia is suddenly going to compromise? Why would you believe this. Putin has stated multiple times just this week that only the full unconditional surrender of Ukraine would suffice, and that his goal is to take all of Ukraine. They have not even remotely budged on this. What, you think he's going to accept half and a coupon?
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Mar 4, 2022 23:09
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PharmerBoy posted:Any indications what that would mean, outside of the nebulous 'higher prices?' Are there any US industries dependent on a specific oil product produced by Russia? no oil is basically interchangable once its refined but don't underestimate oil prices long term: a lot of american oil fields are only really worth developing when oil prices are high so expect to see more drilling in north dakota and texas and so forth, which is actually what led to the first russian and venezuelan economic crash in 2014 when saudi arabia unilaterally started flooding the market with oil specifically to try to drive those drilling operations out of business and hosed up two countries economies as a side effect. if the high prices and shortage last long enough (in other words, the war drags on and saudi arabia decides it would rather gently caress with biden to try to get trump back then destroy american competition you could see a big reversal in the current american move towards SUVs and Trucks and the drive towards electric vehicles taking on new urgency. you could also see public transit actually being something people talk about and actually support to try to get around it instead of being a joke for hippies and people who play too much sim city. it would also mean even more political instability especially in the developing world. especially with higher food prices and shortages because the breadbasket of the world is burning rn.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:09
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Paladinus posted:Zelenskyi's most recent speech that is very pointed towards NATO for its ineffectiveness in protecting Ukraine makes me think he's going to budge on the issue of Ukraine's NATO membership, which also signals that Russia is willing to budge on other issues. The next round of talks is most likely going to happen on March 6, the last day before the Orthodox Great Lent, also known as the forgiving Sunday. It sure would be very symbolic if the countries managed to reach some sort of an agreement on that day. Interesting take! I hope you're right. It would be a very savvy move by Zelenskyy to be able to blame NATO domestically for agreeing to Ukraine's NATO demand, but exchange it for being able to join the EU and some sort of Japan-like self-defense amendment to its constitution (or something like Austria has about military alliances). Putin has gone all in on this though, so it's hard to see how he could live with terms that Ukraine could as well.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:10
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Young Freud posted:Bellingcat says that Russia only has enough resources to wage the war until this coming Sunday... This is kool-aid stuff. Not remotely in line with actual US intelligence or reputable reporting.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:10
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CommieGIR posted:I don't know why people keep pretending this is going to happen or that Russia is suddenly going to compromise? Why would you believe this. Putin has stated multiple times just this week that only the full unconditional surrender of Ukraine would suffice, and that his goal is to take all of Ukraine. They have not even remotely budged on this. Hopefully, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuNJq_wI1ns
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Mar 4, 2022 23:10
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the popes toes posted:The European pride that they are rebuilding Ukraine would be something to behold. So I guess we just have to wait until Sunday. It would be wonderful if the war actually led to a freer, more prosperous and vibrant Ukraine in the long term, but I'm not holding my breath.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:10
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Saladman posted:It’s a Canadian news article but it’s discussing France. Poutine is not at all common in France and the rare times I have seen a poutine place with people someone has always mentioned Putin. In France/Belgium/Switzerland. I'd like to apologize for being a dumbass and not realizing the restaurant was in France. I'm keeping eyes on this thread on a separate laptop and missed that. Sorry for the derail. Also poutine is delicious.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:10
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E Depois do Adeus posted:Somewhat tangential but what quantity of "semi-luxury" (?) imported goods like coffee, curry powder, graphics cards, things that while not necessary to daily survival are taken for granted in modern life above the poverty line, would Russia have stockpiled in country? Because with the sanctions and the Ruble crash they'll be facing severe shortages on these things they can't produce themselves soon, and that'll lead to a noticeable drop in quality of life for many people. While this may be offset by social media bans, and the people most affected are not Putin's base, the consequences of the war are going to affect the daily lives of even apolitical Russians very soon, probably in a very severe way. Somewhat related, but I was wondering how much the JIT logistics would collapse whatever non-oil industry Russia has left, since the sanctions were so sudden.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:11
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Youth Decay posted:It's weird to have a war that so many Americans actually want to get involved with. I guess so many boomers and Gen Xers are jonesing to finally get a taste of a hot war with Russia after they got blue-balled in the Cold War. I think a lot of it has to do with pre-existing cleavages like the Cold War; however, first, while Americans generally speaking do not care much about what happens in non-European counties, especially ones allied to the United States, Americans are seeing something terrible perpetrated on a developed European country. Americans do not like this; and… As an American let me tell you how, culturally speaking, we love the narrative of an underdog standing up to overwhelming power and winning. Edit This is really ironic really given that the United States is usually the overwhelming powering engaged in neoimperialist and neocolonial adventures.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:11
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Pretty much. If Putin fails and he wants to negotiate, the only answer should be the same one he demanded of Ukraine: Ukraine gets to keep all of Ukraine, and you go home. That's it. Wars over.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:12
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ZombieLenin posted:I think a lot of it has to do with pre-existing cleavages like the Cold War; however, first, while Americans generally speaking do not care much about what happens in non-European counties, especially ones allied to the United States, Americans are seeing something terrible perpetrated on a developed European country. Americans do not like this; and… I think it helps that Ukraine also had a semi-functional democracy.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:13
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Pook Good Mook posted:Finland literally ran out of people and bullets. AND Stalin was willing to sign limited peace deals, he was willing to end the war without a full invasion or installing a puppet regime. Only because he realized after three months of war and the Brits and French planning an intervention in Scandinavia that he'd have to wrap it up. Until then he refused to even discuss, because Soviets only recognized their own puppet government as legitimate representatives of Finland. AND even then Stalin fully planned to occupy all of Finland later. But at that point his partner in crime had conquered France and now Germans told him that Finland was no longer in USSR's sphere. (DUN DUN DUUNN)
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Mar 4, 2022 23:14
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Vox Nihili posted:Years of Bush and Clinton treating no-fly zones as a quick fix salve for all our problems have broken the collective brains of the average American. People somehow believe that they are peacefully imposed and maintained. Setting up a no-fly zone is just like declaring bankruptcy by shouting it. - Average American
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Mar 4, 2022 23:15
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Dapper_Swindler posted:It’s because Putin is an outside threat and Ukraine is the plucky little power fighting off the big monster. Etc. Repubs are angling to use this as a reason to restart the Keystone Pipeline
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Mar 4, 2022 23:15
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CommieGIR posted:I don't know why people keep pretending this is going to happen or that Russia is suddenly going to compromise? Why would you believe this. Putin has stated multiple times just this week that only the full unconditional surrender of Ukraine would suffice, and that his goal is to take all of Ukraine. They have not even remotely budged on this. Maybe this is stupid, but the total lack of flexibility actually reads like a sign of weakness and desperation to me. Like they know their bargaining position is terrible and getting worse every minute, so they stick to the official maximalist line to at least maintain an air of negotiating from a position of power, until a time when they can come up with something realistic and sell it as a compromise.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:15
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Here's a phenomenal interview with Yuval Harari that gives an excellent overview of the war in Ukraine and why it's such a big loving deal, https://twitter.com/TEDTalks/status/1499106672161263618?s=20&t=XIEntABgU0GeLqGCsQruEg quote:Because of the shock waves destabilizing the whole world. Let’s start with the bottom line: budgets. We have been living in an amazing era of peace in the last few decades. And it wasn't some kind of hippie fantasy. You saw it in the bottom line. You saw it in the budgets. In Europe, in the European Union, the average defense budget of EU members was around three percent of government budget. And that's a historical miracle, almost. For most of history, the budget of kings and emperors and sultans, like 50 percent, 80 percent goes to war, goes to the army. In Europe, it’s just three percent. In the whole world, the average is about six percent, I think, fact-check me on this, but this is the figure that I know, six percent. What we saw already within a few days, Germany doubles its military budget in a day. And I'm not against it. Given what they are facing, it's reasonable. For the Germans, for the Poles, for all of Europe to double their budgets. And you see other countries around the world doing the same thing. But this is, you know, a race to the bottom. When they double their budgets, other countries look and feel insecure and double their budgets, so they have to double them again and triple them. And the money that should go to health care, that should go to education, that should go to fight climate change, this money will now go to tanks, to missiles, to fighting wars. So there is less health care for everybody, and there is maybe no solution to climate change because the money goes to tanks. And in this way, even if you live in Australia, even if you live in Brazil, you will feel the repercussions of this war in less health care, in a deteriorating ecological crisis, in many other things.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:15
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HappyHippo posted:https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1499844253786288133 Not gonna lie, I'm 40 and didn't know what a NFZ was, or the implications of one until I googled it last week and read this thread.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:15
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HonorableTB posted:Can we get a ban on posting Russian propaganda? I get that most of the content here is Ukrainian propaganda but there's a difference between propaganda that consists of factual reporting confirmed by outside sources vs the propaganda of an aggressive invader The post clearly identifies it as Russian propaganda, which in my opinion makes it a fair game. It can be valuable to discuss Russian propaganda, e.g., all the false flag videos in the lead up to the ongoing attack.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:15
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I take comfort that I don't think the other 29 countries in Nato are going to be interested in NFZs just because 74% of polled US citizens are a bit dim.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:17
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CuddleCryptid posted:We only get 3% of our oil from Russia so not really. The biggest issue is going to be price speculators driving the price higher by absurd amounts, not the actual availability of oil. Oil is an international market. If the US takes 3% less that seems insignificant, but if all of Europe suddenly has to import their oil and gas from somewhere else, you can bet that those prices will go up bore than those 3% would suggest. Of course, the USA could singlehandedly stop oil imports but that's not all that significant to Russia either.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:18
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Charlotte Hornets posted:
That is a completely insane video by the way.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:19
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Vox Nihili posted:This is kool-aid stuff. Not remotely in line with actual US intelligence or reputable reporting. Now to be fair, I was in IN/COIN classes at West Point and not conventional military stuff that would be more readily applicable (AND it was 20 cannabis-shrouded years ago), but I actually don't think this take is all that hot given what we've seen so far. Russian logistics seem absolutely hosed, and logistics are the only thing that actually matters in war. Nobody is going to wave a magic wand and suddenly make shoving two thousand dilapidated, under-serviced trucks driven by conscripts through a 70 km traffic jam feasible.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:20
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E Depois do Adeus posted:Somewhat tangential but what quantity of "semi-luxury" (?) imported goods like coffee, curry powder, graphics cards, things that while not necessary to daily survival are taken for granted in modern life above the poverty line, would Russia have stockpiled in country? Because with the sanctions and the Ruble crash they'll be facing severe shortages on these things they can't produce themselves soon, and that'll lead to a noticeable drop in quality of life for many people. While this may be offset by social media bans, and the people most affected are not Putin's base, the consequences of the war are going to affect the daily lives of even apolitical Russians very soon, probably in a very severe way.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:20
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Henrik Zetterberg posted:Not gonna lie, I'm 40 and didn't know what a NFZ was, or the implications of one until I googled it last week and read this thread. I wonder what those polls would say if they called it a 'shoot Russian planes and bomb Russian anti-air' zone.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:20
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uXs posted:I wonder what those polls would say if they called it a 'shoot Russian planes and bomb Russian anti-air' zone. Probably higher, honestly.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:23
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uXs posted:I wonder what those polls would say if they called it a 'shoot Russian planes and bomb Russian anti-air' zone. You could get republican support to 0 by saying "hey isn't that the thing Hillary wanted to do over Syria?
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Mar 4, 2022 23:23
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CommieGIR posted:I don't know why people keep pretending this is going to happen or that Russia is suddenly going to compromise? Why would you believe this. Putin has stated multiple times just this week that only the full unconditional surrender of Ukraine would suffice, and that his goal is to take all of Ukraine. They have not even remotely budged on this. Russia is kind of losing in the sense that it's very clear now that whatever unrealistic goals Putin had in mind, apart from NATO membership, they can't achieve using the military. The truth is Putin doesn't actually need a full victory to show at home. His core electorate are fairly uninformed and blindly support him, no matter what. If on Monday all propagandists start saying that the war was really only about NATO, that's what they're going to accept, mission accomplished. The majority of Russians who don't support Putin are simply disenfranchised and nihilistic, so nobody cares what they think. And the opposition media are crushed, and Putin's politically active detractors won't even be able to effectively utilise his apparent failure. Of course, it's just me hoping there's a possible offramp. Putin might as well nuke Poland tomorrow.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:24
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Everyone I know who is in favor of a NFZ knows this means "go to war with Russia" and they don't care. Specifically, I also think we should stop all imports and exports of any kind to and from Russia, regardless of the cost to our economy. Furthermore, if that doesn't stop Russia from continuing to invade, I agree that the United States should go to war with Russia and blow any Russian planes and tanks in Ukraine to hell. So, I guess I agree with 3/4 of the American public on that one. Russia has become the next Nazi Germany and if we don't bite the bullet now, it's going to be worse later.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:24
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FishBulbia posted:ah yess the russian sabateurs manning checkpoint in Ukrainian territory. Read the article. First these aren't green reporters, second they clearly aren't at a checkpoint(they were in fact directed here by a checkpoint), third it's a (marked? They usually have press or TV stenciled on them) civilian vehicle (very few militaries drive around in white four door sedans), fourth the shooters continue even after they exit the vehicle unarmed. The Ukrainians claim it was a forward squad of Russians, and frankly that's probably the only ID your ever going to get on this. You can't pick out the firing position from the video. Likely they were mistaken for retreating Ukraine police and engaged by the scout squad. Barrel Cactaur fucked around with this message at 00:17 on Mar 5, 2022 |
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Mar 4, 2022 23:25
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uXs posted:I wonder what those polls would say if they called it a 'shoot Russian planes and bomb Russian anti-air' zone. Yeah here's an article that points out no fly zone isn't just shooting planes in the air, but bombing anti-air defences. In Iraq no-fly also mean no-radiate https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/the-dangerous-allure-of-the-no-fly-zone/
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Mar 4, 2022 23:26
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Vox Nihili posted:This is kool-aid stuff. Not remotely in line with actual US intelligence or reputable reporting. It may very well be, but apparently Grozev confirmed it. https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1499849754897010694?s=20&t=4EVz-LptHDj9a4TF-K8xbQ https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1499872184382234636?s=20&t=4EVz-LptHDj9a4TF-K8xbQ
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Mar 4, 2022 23:26
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Franks Happy Place posted:Now to be fair, I was in IN/COIN classes at West Point and not conventional military stuff that would be more readily applicable (AND it was 20 cannabis-shrouded years ago), but I actually don't think this take is all that hot given what we've seen so far. They're certainly suffering a substantial degree of attrition in their armored ranks, which is verifiable in the actual footage we've seen. That's well, well removed from being two days from running out of things like gas and food and collapsing entirely. These forces have been doing exercises in the region for months, some for years, and they're only a few dozen miles from their home territory. Russia has vast stores of war material. The logistical buildup was done over many months as well. The notion that they're running out of basic supplies already is just not in line with reality.
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Mar 4, 2022 23:27
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Paladinus posted:Russia is kind of losing in the sense that it's very clear now that whatever unrealistic goals Putin had in mind, apart from NATO membership, they can't achieve using the military. The truth is Putin doesn't actually need a full victory to show at home. His core electorate are fairly uninformed and blindly support him, no matter what. If on Monday all propagandists start saying that the war was really only about NATO, that's what they're going to accept, mission accomplished. The majority of Russians who don't support Putin are simply disenfranchised and nihilistic, so nobody cares what they think. And the opposition media are crushed, and Putin's politically active detractors won't even be able to effectively utilise his apparent failure. I just don't think Putin is that rational at this time, otherwise he probably could've already saved himself a lot of heartache. Also: Its not a democracy. The electorate doesn't matter. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 23:29 on Mar 4, 2022 |
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