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seems like russians are on the move today. apparently now control the m06 highway that goes west out of kyiv. according to livemap. twitter has videos of them entering bucha (not sure if they're current/accurate), and i guess on the east there appears to be fighting outside brovary. i guess slow and steady progress toward encircling kyiv?
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Mar 6, 2022 21:10
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Bremen posted:Those aren't guided, are they? That looked like a hell of a shot. They're also reloading pretty quickly. That's probably second nature to someone who drills with these constantly, but it still looks impressive. I do wonder why those Russian AFVs don't have any infantry support at all? It's probably entirely inconceivable those were abandoned or captured vehicles which were shot up on camera for some morale-boosting footage. It doesn't seem wise to just stand around in the open in broad daylight giving thumbs up to a camera after shooting up enemy vehicles that might have survivors or infantry support nearby. War is weird and I know that actual engagements have people doing many strange things, but these are supposedly special forces, and I would expect them to be slightly less cavalier about maintaining cover while in the possible vicinity of enemy combatants.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:10
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Grouchio posted:So why are we saying that the war in Ukraine will be prolonged when we were just talking about the army perhaps collapsing on monday? The modern military equipment of Russia could predominantly fall apart, but the classics still work. Putin can order another 200,000 men to invade Ukraine on foot with Kalashnikovs and RPGs to live off the land (read: shoot civilians and raid their fridge) and there's no fast and easy way to stop that. And that's assuming that Russia has absolutely no working vehicles, when in fact they do have loads, just not the loads and loads they said they had. Russia is a big nation full of resources, and if they want to fight they can do it for a long, long time. They can't win, mind you--there's no objective that the Russian army can achieve. But Afghanistan should have taught us that you can fight for decades without needing an objective.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:11
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the popes toes posted:St. Petersburg as portrayed by fascist Ukrainian photoshoppers. Maybe Putin will have to move so many of his violent security goons into Ukraine to pacify it that he becomes vulnerable to a revolution at home.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:12
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:The Russian units in the South dont' have nearly as long supply lines and seem to actually be taking and holding territory. This may change once the Ukrianian units in the north can move to assist the South. Are we sure about that? Seems supply lines going through Crimea would be complicated. It may be more that they're facing much lighter resistance.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:12
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I’m skeptical of ukrainian propaganda but it can’t be great for russian morale to see a good chunk of your homeless looking military scrounging for food or expecting to be cremated in a truck or burried in a mass grave if you die
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Mar 6, 2022 21:13
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Grape posted:Are we sure about that? Seems supply lines going through Crimea would be complicated. Some of the hardest early fighting was reported so be in and around Kherson so I doubt that's true. Mariupol has also been massively contested.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:14
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I think the logistics issue is also compounded by the fact that low supply is waaaaay worse when morale is in the shitter. You might wait a day for ammo and a meal if you have been taken care of lately and also believe in the cause. The IJA did it, the Wehrmacht did it, the Red Army did it, the 101st Airborne etc. It's not a great idea because it degrades the units ability to recover, but it's possible in an emergency, and experienced soldiers always have a proverbial Powerbar on them for just that reason. If, on the other hand, you are a peasant conscript and have been sitting in the middle of nowhere for weeks with low supplies and no information, and then suddenly you were invading your harmless kid brother neighbour, all the locals are calling you a fash and telling you to gently caress off, you haven't been fed properly in days or weeks, you're cold... Are you going to sit there and wait for resupply, or wander off into the woods and surrender to the first group of armed uncles you come across? Evidence so far is strongly towards the latter. The supplies may not get there soon enough to save big chunks of what they have in the field now. This is... wild stuff to watch, which is why all the spook types on Twitter just post insane photos with captions like "wtf" or "WOW". Franks Happy Place fucked around with this message at 21:16 on Mar 6, 2022 |
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Mar 6, 2022 21:14
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Grouchio posted:So why are we saying that the war in Ukraine will be prolonged when we were just talking about the army perhaps collapsing on monday? Some of the Russian fronts in Ukraine, particularly the one near Kyiv, may be running out of supplies and that will mess them up, maybe even force them to retreat back to near the borders with a great loss of equipment. But... what then? Just because Russia's offensive was an incredible failure doesn't mean the war is over. Russian forces can likely hold out closer to their supply lines (if you have half the trucks you need, that just means you need to be half the distance from your supplies), and even if they can't it's not like Ukraine is going to invade Russia. And Russia does appear to be doing better on other fronts, even if that may just be Ukraine focusing on defending Kyiv which likely would have been a much more decisive loss than any of the others. Every soldier who's been deployed to Ukraine combined has been less that a quarter of Russia's army, so they have the numbers to keep reinforcing them, and could try again with a slower advance that won't outrun their supplies. On the other hand, the sanctions and support for Ukraine means every day Ukraine gets stronger and Russia gets weaker. So maybe Russia could be convinced to settle for something they could call a victory, or maybe someone really does overthrow Putin, or maybe none of that happens and Putin's absolute refusal to concede anything means he keeps throwing bodies into the country and the war grinds on for years. I don't think anyone really knows what's going to happen right now.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:15
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The whole "Russia will run out of supplies by Monday" thing sounds to me like "The total gas tank capacity of all vehicles combined is 100000 litergallons, and they're using 15000 litergallons a day. Therefore, every single Russian vehicle within the borders of Ukraine will grind to a halt simultaneously at 8:43 PM on Sunday". Most supplies can be rationed, use can be prioritized, diesel can be siphoned. Resource exhaustion is almost never linear. I could see more non-combat losses of the initial wave of vehicles with each passing day, and it will definitely impact the rate at which they can advance, at least in the short term.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:15
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Alchenar posted:Helmetcam footage of Ukranian SF engaging tanks with RPGS (no gore, but burning tanks in the background at the end): https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1500544341554700291 This is obvious propaganda but if hackers want to really help, they should be focused on getting this propaganda playing on every Russian TV station, website and Starbucks digital menu 24/7
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Mar 6, 2022 21:17
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I just found this fascinating little history lesson by one of the Embassy accounts. https://twitter.com/rusembassynl/status/1499804553788727303
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Mar 6, 2022 21:19
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Are there any official media bias checks/reports for ASB by any reputable org? I'm seeing quite a few people share their stuff, and while it's obvious to most that it's literal Russian propaganda, others don't seem to be able to see it.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:20
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Dante posted:It would surprise me if Russians are killing every tenth truck themselves for disciplinary reasons. I look forward to the inevitable Ukrainian tower defense games
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Mar 6, 2022 21:21
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Ikasuhito posted:I just found this fascinating little history lesson by one of the Embassy accounts. Nazi collaborators during WW1 - really ahead of the times those guys.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:21
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Ikasuhito posted:I just found this fascinating little history lesson by one of the Embassy accounts. That's definitely what we call a Lacksäufer in Germany. gently caress me.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:21
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Bremen posted:Some of the Russian fronts in Ukraine, particularly the one near Kyiv, may be running out of supplies and that will mess them up, maybe even force them to retreat back to near the borders with a great loss of equipment. That's fair, but the longer the West has to resupply and reinforce the Ukrainians, the more the odds increase in their favor, or at least so it seems. One thing this is all clearly demonstrating is that western forces have a non-trivial advantage in gear and technology. Russia has a massive army but it also needs that army to enforce internal order across its empire. With that army not in place or blown up. . . . we already see Belarussia not doing what it's told. I feel like there should be a Civilization screenshot for this
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Mar 6, 2022 21:21
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Some of the abandoned vehicles may be Jerry can stations. As in take all the gas out of A tank and fill 5 trucks
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Mar 6, 2022 21:22
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Grouchio posted:So why are we saying that the war in Ukraine will be prolonged when we were just talking about the army perhaps collapsing on monday? I don't think we quite know what the hell is going to happen and experts are now casting much wider range of predictions after their initial estimation of russia's military strength and logistics was vastly overestimated. If the Moscow markets do open Monday then the markets are going to collapse in a way that the average population is going to be able to see. Until now only people smart enough to go look at foreign market etf numbers really understand how bad it's gotten. Putin seems all in here but it's going to take a lot of nationalization of industry and seizure/forced sale of resources in order to keep the machine going. Ukraine has basically done so much better than expected and russia so much worse, and that's given sanctions more time to get in place and work, that it's shocked pundits into reanalyzing the scope of their predictions. What might start happening is the front of the line might start running out of food and fuel and who knows what they're going to do. Could be a mass surrender, could they start walking back, could be they stay and starve. It's just a very difficult thing to try and predict but it's still likely to only immediately start affecting one section of the attack, not the whole invasion. Anubis fucked around with this message at 21:29 on Mar 6, 2022 |
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Mar 6, 2022 21:23
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the popes toes posted:St. Petersburg as portrayed by fascist Ukrainian photoshoppers. OTG? If not. I'd say no. 70% of the population is staunchly za voiny
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Mar 6, 2022 21:23
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HolHorsejob posted:The whole "Russia will run out of supplies by Monday" thing sounds to me like "The total gas tank capacity of all vehicles combined is 100000 litergallons, and they're using 15000 litergallons a day. Therefore, every single Russian vehicle within the borders of Ukraine will grind to a halt simultaneously at 8:43 PM on Sunday". I do think the northern army probably collapses soonish. Because of gas and bad logistics and horrific losses. I do think the southern army will probably last longer but get hosed up in Odessa/etc.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:23
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Ikasuhito posted:I just found this fascinating little history lesson by one of the Embassy accounts. That Twitter links to a certainly independent and factual fact checking website https://waronfakes.com Which is hilarious to read kinda
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Mar 6, 2022 21:24
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:That's fair, but the longer the West has to resupply and reinforce the Ukrainians, the more the odds increase in their favor, or at least so it seems. One thing this is all clearly demonstrating is that western forces have a non-trivial advantage in gear and technology. Do keep in mind that the west can't resupply cities and soldiers, though.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:24
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HolHorsejob posted:The whole "Russia will run out of supplies by Monday" thing sounds to me like "The total gas tank capacity of all vehicles combined is 100000 litergallons, and they're using 15000 litergallons a day. Therefore, every single Russian vehicle within the borders of Ukraine will grind to a halt simultaneously at 8:43 PM on Sunday". IIRC it was that units deployed with two weeks' worth of supplies, and that two weeks is up today for most of them. Units will start running out of food/fuel/water/ammo/etc. and have to be resupplied externally if they're going to be able to continue fighting. Russian convoys getting routinely blown to pieces makes the resupply issue pretty keen.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:26
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Boris Galerkin posted:That Twitter links to a certainly independent and factual fact checking website FAKE: Russia is killing civilians what's a really happening: Russia is not invading Ukraine. Ukraine is actually invading Russia so all these videos of citizens getting bombed are actually Russian citizens being killed by Ukrainians.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:29
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fuctifino posted:Are there any official media bias checks/reports for ASB by any reputable org? I'm seeing quite a few people share their stuff, and while it's obvious to most that it's literal Russian propaganda, others don't seem to be able to see it. asb isn't a news organization or other entity, it's literally just a twitter account (and a telegram channel)
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Mar 6, 2022 21:31
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TheRat posted:Do keep in mind that the west can't resupply cities and soldiers, though. Oh, there have been something like a hundred thousand Ukrainians living abroad who just moved back specifically to sign up. Cities are gonna get blown up though, yeah.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:32
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Ikasuhito posted:I just found this fascinating little history lesson by one of the Embassy accounts. Ukrainians are so nazi that they were doing it in WW1 apparently.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:37
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Grape posted:Ukrainians are so nazi that they were doing it in WW1 apparently. it's those drat time traveling nazis again!
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Mar 6, 2022 21:38
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this is maybe one of those questions no one can answer due to fog of war, but do we have any indications how ukrainian mobilization of reserves has progressed during the invasion? i seem to recall that the order to call up reservists was only given ~24 hours prior to invasion and the beginning of the russian air and missile campaign. at the time some folks noted that typical mobilization time was several weeks for rank and file and a month for officers. a lot of the coverage i've seen has focused on civilians joining up with scratch territory defense units, but do we have a sense of whether or not the ukranian military is able to get reserve units organized, equipped and deployed? i'm sure the lack of russian air superiority is aiding those kinds of efforts, but it's not clear to me whether it's actual happening if the ukrainians aren't able to reinforce themselves this pause in russia's tempo of operations would still be a national embarrassment, but not something that threatens their ability to win the war i guess my time following the civil war in syria has made me more hesitant to put too much weight on good news for the underdogs in a conflict
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Mar 6, 2022 21:40
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FishBulbia posted:OTG? If not. I'd say no. 70% of the population is staunchly za voiny I honestly doubted the veracity of the photo at first. Maybe a shot from the 2006/7 Марш несогласных? But it appears legit. Which is remarkable, I think, to come out in such size, so soon.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:43
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Normal. Perfectly normal. https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1500556037753126918?s=20&t=0VaM7I2xYUOFD63Bk4EC0w
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Mar 6, 2022 21:45
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:this is maybe one of those questions no one can answer due to fog of war, but do we have any indications how ukrainian mobilization of reserves has progressed during the invasion? We don’t have information to answer this question.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:46
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Normal. Perfectly normal. Uh excuse me bud they’re still one grade above the worst one
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Mar 6, 2022 21:46
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Normal. Perfectly normal. Kinda surprised it took this long? How was there not a high risk of default a week ago?
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Mar 6, 2022 21:47
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Mystic Mongol posted:The modern military equipment of Russia could predominantly fall apart, but the classics still work. Putin can order another 200,000 men to invade Ukraine on foot with Kalashnikovs and RPGs to live off the land (read: shoot civilians and raid their fridge) and there's no fast and easy way to stop that. And that's assuming that Russia has absolutely no working vehicles, when in fact they do have loads, just not the loads and loads they said they had. Anubis posted:it's those drat time traveling nazis again! mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 21:50 on Mar 6, 2022 |
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Mar 6, 2022 21:48
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:this is maybe one of those questions no one can answer due to fog of war, but do we have any indications how ukrainian mobilization of reserves has progressed during the invasion? i seem to recall that the order to call up reservists was only given ~24 hours prior to invasion and the beginning of the russian air and missile campaign. at the time some folks noted that typical mobilization time was several weeks for rank and file and a month for officers. a lot of the coverage i've seen has focused on civilians joining up with scratch territory defense units, but do we have a sense of whether or not the ukranian military is able to get reserve units organized, equipped and deployed? i'm sure the lack of russian air superiority is aiding those kinds of efforts, but it's not clear to me whether it's actual happening Despite claims that arming the population is what's leading to Russia doing strikes against civilian habitation (because they're taking potshots from random people with AKs), TDF gathering and distribution points have gone largely unmolested and Russia seems to have failed to significantly knock out Ukrainian C3 nodes in the early stages, so I assume they've already got a sizeable reservist component ready.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:49
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TheRat posted:Kinda surprised it took this long? How was there not a high risk of default a week ago? That was with two different assessor’s, Moody’s was much more conservative in downgrading.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:49
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Marching 200k unsupported conscripts into Ukraine in a month or so when they can scrounge them up, seems like a good way to get them all goodly killed or surrendered.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:50
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Ikasuhito posted:I just found this fascinating little history lesson by one of the Embassy accounts. Remember that UN resolution that Russia introduced condemning Neo-Nazi groups that all of Europe abstained on and the US and Ukraine voted against? This is why. This is the definition of Nazism that Russia was using.
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Mar 6, 2022 21:50
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