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Trump posted:If the government and military leadership makes it out relatively intact, I can't see the battle becoming anything but a boost for Ukraine, almost no matter the result. And also as they know the capital being taken is a possible, the government and military leadership would obviously have everything set up to try and make sure if they don't make it out, it will have as minimal impact as possible.
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Mar 13, 2022 06:03
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downout posted:Is there a cost to nuking an isolated space that was already off-limits due to prior russian endevaours? It's pretty radioactive there. I know years of bikers and backpackers have given the impression that the exclusion zone is safe, but part of the reason it's reasonably safe is that there are cooling systems to maintain the spent radioactive rods that are disposed there. (Nuclear waste is stored at Chernobyl because, why not, it's borked anyway). Those cooling systems are powered by electricity, which was cut off by the Russians. Don't expect a cloud of doom, but do look forward to invaders who survived the war setting up a base at this "safe location" getting some fun kinds of cancer in the years ahead.
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Mar 13, 2022 06:05
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Sucrose posted:So this upcoming Russian push on Kyiv is pretty much going to be the thing that decides the war, right? If the Russians fail and take huge losses trying to storm Kyiv, it pretty much means that they're never going to take it and are going to just keep taking losses until they totally collapse. A lot of it really depends on if the forces around kyiv really do commit to an all-in push into the city. (Which, who knows what the logistic and morale situation is, maybe they have reached a point where they must go for it?) If they do that and get annihilated by motivated well-armed urban defenders, then Russia is probably screwed when the forces in Kyiv move south and east. Or if they just chill out and we have another week of artillery and skirmishes and movement and siege, they just bleed out a bit more but still stalemated.
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Mar 13, 2022 06:05
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the popes toes posted:The Poles seem to have been already pissed. There's room for more pissed than they already are? I mean yes but there are voices of discontent too. Some calls for neutrality in the conflict. It's fairly fringe but might not stay that way. Poland has a "bumpy" history with Ukraine, which I fear will be exploited to sow FUD about refugees.
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Mar 13, 2022 06:08
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Trump posted:https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1502861153638174721 I could be wrong, but I don't think they've hit Lviv before now.
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Mar 13, 2022 06:10
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Isn't Lviv where all the foreign journos who are actually in Ukraine are based?
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Mar 13, 2022 06:10
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What a waste of ammo. they know they ain't taking the entire country and are going to cripple the future Ukraine. loving Nazi scum. Too bad Nukes are on the table otherwise this poo poo would have been eradicated in a quickness Correct it's the site of most Western journalists as it's fairly safe and close to other things
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Mar 13, 2022 06:12
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Mystic Mongol posted:It's pretty radioactive there. I know years of bikers and backpackers have given the impression that the exclusion zone is safe, but part of the reason it's reasonably safe is that there are cooling systems to maintain the spent radioactive rods that are disposed there. (Nuclear waste is stored at Chernobyl because, why not, it's borked anyway). Those cooling systems are powered by electricity, which was cut off by the Russians. Don't expect a cloud of doom, but do look forward to invaders who survived the war setting up a base at this "safe location" getting some fun kinds of cancer in the years ahead. No, the cooling pond will take about a month to dry out and can be replenished in other ways in the meantime. However it can't be good for people to be in the area with the dust stirred up.
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Mar 13, 2022 06:13
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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1502874720752054274 Speculation is they tried to hit Yavoriv training grounds, which was used by the US to train UA in the use of javelins and stingers and could be used as a logistics hub for the supplies coming in from Poland.
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Mar 13, 2022 06:16
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Sucrose posted:I could be wrong, but I don't think they've hit Lviv before now. They have.
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Mar 13, 2022 06:16
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Mystic Mongol posted:It's pretty radioactive there. I know years of bikers and backpackers have given the impression that the exclusion zone is safe, but part of the reason it's reasonably safe is that there are cooling systems to maintain the spent radioactive rods that are disposed there. (Nuclear waste is stored at Chernobyl because, why not, it's borked anyway). Those cooling systems are powered by electricity, which was cut off by the Russians. Don't expect a cloud of doom, but do look forward to invaders who survived the war setting up a base at this "safe location" getting some fun kinds of cancer in the years ahead. I've never heard of nuclear waste being stored at Chernobyl. Wikipedia has nothing on that, where are such claims being made?
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Mar 13, 2022 06:20
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https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1502876265493282824?s=20&t=81xatvHzphWVedGYuVPBOw Bully poo poo
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Mar 13, 2022 06:21
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edit - ^^^ they would want to be very sure those missiles didn't overshoot the target. It sounds like Poland is itching for an excuse to escalate things.Sucrose posted:I could be wrong, but I don't think they've hit Lviv before now. They have, but never particularly heavily. They seem to be limited to firing cruise missiles at it because it's a nest of AA from the sounds of things.
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Mar 13, 2022 06:21
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Rinkles posted:I mean yes but there are voices of discontent too. Some calls for neutrality in the conflict. It's fairly fringe but might not stay that way. Poland has a "bumpy" history with Ukraine, which I fear will be exploited to sow FUD about refugees.
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Mar 13, 2022 06:30
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downout posted:I've never heard of nuclear waste being stored at Chernobyl. Wikipedia has nothing on that, where are such claims being made? It's the spent waste from the plant's four previously-operating reactors; Reactor 4's waste is obviously entombed within the new confinement structure, while the spent fuel/waste from Reactors 1, 2, and 3 are on-site still.
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Mar 13, 2022 06:31
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Mr. Apollo posted:Talking with my own family, they seem to dislike the Russians even more and see the war in Ukraine as a way to make Russia hurt. That's certainly the prevailing sentiment. I'm just a pessimist.
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Mar 13, 2022 06:32
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1502673952572854278 One of the claims made here is that Russian soldiers are literally being pimped out as rentboys. Does anyone have more info on this? A quick googling reveals a lot of repeats of this claim, but how the gently caress would that work? Are buyers driving to these military bases in the middle of nowhere for the night? Is this attested independently by tourists?
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Mar 13, 2022 06:43
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Pretty interesting. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1502871362632925184?cxt=HHwWgIC-jdbiotspAAAA 
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Mar 13, 2022 06:51
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The question isn't can the Russians take Kiev; they can't. They may try and a lot of people will die, but they won't. The question now is, can Ukraine mount serious offensive action to liberate territory captured by Russia? If they can relieve Mariupol, retake Kherson, and possibly move into the Donbass then we're talking outright victory.
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Mar 13, 2022 06:52
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HolHorsejob posted:One of the claims made here is that Russian soldiers are literally being pimped out as rentboys. Does anyone have more info on this? A quick googling reveals a lot of repeats of this claim, but how the gently caress would that work? Are buyers driving to these military bases in the middle of nowhere for the night? Is this attested independently by tourists? It's the long-running unofficial "dedovshchina" (grandfather) system that is a well-known systemic abuse of junior conscripts by older conscripts and contract soldiers. IIRC, the prostitution stuff is more an egregious example of it, most of it is hazing, "doing favors", etc. Basically, the Russian army under ranks are run like a prison gang, complete with "bitches", hence the talk of rentboys. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dedovshchina
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Mar 13, 2022 06:53
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the popes toes posted:Pretty interesting. i just loaded this up, why is the entirety of kaliningrad on fire?
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Mar 13, 2022 06:56
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Sucrose posted:So this upcoming Russian push on Kyiv is pretty much going to be the thing that decides the war, right? If the Russians fail and take huge losses trying to storm Kyiv, it pretty much means that they're never going to take it and are going to just keep taking losses until they totally collapse. Putin desperately needs to take Kiev along with capturing the government and getting them to surrender. If they'll able to put that off it looks like the war will come to a close or at least some partial victory. If it doesn't, it's going to continue to drag out with no real end in sight. If things continue for the next month or until next Fall Putin completely failed to accomplish his original goals.
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Mar 13, 2022 06:58
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Putin desperately needs to take Kiev along with capturing the government and getting them to surrender. If they'll able to put that off it looks like the war will come to a close or at least some partial victory.
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Mar 13, 2022 07:00
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Morrow posted:The question isn't can the Russians take Kiev; they can't. They may try and a lot of people will die, but they won't. I don't think they have to. They can keep chipping away at Russian forces at the current rate and eventually Russia won't be able to keep those troops in the field. As bad as things are in those besieged towns, time is not on Russia's side here. The fog of war is thick so we don't know the true state of their forces, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Russians around Kyiv only have one or two more large scale offensives left in them before attrition, fatigue, lack of supply and so on catch up to them.
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Mar 13, 2022 07:00
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Concerned Citizen posted:i just loaded this up, why is the entirety of kaliningrad on fire? It's the beginning of burning season. From 2018: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/91895/spring-fires-in-kaliningrad
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Mar 13, 2022 07:03
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1502876265493282824?s=20&t=81xatvHzphWVedGYuVPBOw
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Mar 13, 2022 07:14
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Grouchio posted:I suspect this is Russia's response to it's frustration over Ukraine's continuous supply shipments? If so it might be the single smartest thing they've done in this war so far. Assuming it is effective and not just Putin lashing out helplessly at something he can't stop. Realistically they should have been concentrating on severing supply lines of their first line of targets from day 1.
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Mar 13, 2022 07:22
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Grouchio posted:I suspect this is Russia's response to it's frustration over Ukraine's continuous supply shipments? You would think so but I don't know how effective it will be if Ukraine has done the sensible thing and dispersed any military shipments to avoid a single missile sending the whole lot up in smoke. I'll hazard a guess and say they'll run out of cruise missiles before they do any substantial damage to Ukraine's ability to receive supplies, especially if Ukraine is having some success shooting them down.
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Mar 13, 2022 07:30
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Nessus posted:So they could just move to Lviv and he'd be hosed running? Not that they would abandon Kyiv at this point but like if it looked like they were two steps from falling, Zelensky or the PM guy could just... go to Lviv and they might as well have gone to the Moon? I'm not sure what you're saying... Zelensky leaving Kyiv would be a victory for Putin. He needs to stay in the city.
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Mar 13, 2022 07:38
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the popes toes posted:The Poles seem to have been already pissed. There's room for more pissed than they already are? When it comes to Russia, yes.
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Mar 13, 2022 07:43
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They're really pissed about the arms shipments. https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1502876265493282824?t=C2Lge4owQkbWffyppSXu_w&s=19
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Mar 13, 2022 07:47
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:I'm not sure what you're saying... Zelensky leaving Kyiv would be a victory for Putin. He needs to stay in the city. Who's the #2 presidental figure? That guy is probably in Lviv I figure.
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Mar 13, 2022 08:04
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I just don’t get it, like big picture. Putin reacting like there was troops loading up all along NATO lines. He was winning, he funded Brexit, his trolls are splitting America, the EU was divided as ever and then he attacked Ukraine. Just why? All these YouTube videos about how Russia isn’t defensible from a ground war and he wants mountains….who the gently caress was in a position to attack or why? Blowing decades of soft power to protect against an imaginary hard power enemy a sexual elk fucked around with this message at 08:11 on Mar 13, 2022 |
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Mar 13, 2022 08:08
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Morrow posted:The question isn't can the Russians take Kiev; they can't. They may try and a lot of people will die, but they won't. Ah don't be so sure, can I introduce you to the concept of tremendous, constant warcrimes
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Mar 13, 2022 08:09
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a sexual elk posted:I just don’t get it, like big picture. Putin reacting like there was troops loading up all along NATO lines. He was winning, he funded Brexit, his trolls are splitting America, the EU was divided as ever and then he attacked Ukraine. Just why? All these YouTube videos about how Russia isn’t defensible from a ground war and he wants mountains….who the gently caress was in a position to attack or why? I think the issue is less the threat posed by NATO to Russia, and more that countries he considered rightfully Russia's were developing closer ties with the EU and NATO. Once Ukraine, Belarus, and Georgia joined NATO or the EU he wasn't going to get them back so he had to move to take them. Ukraine was modernising it's military and it wouldn't be long before it would be far too hard to invade so the clock was ticking on this, so much so that it couldn't wait until a Putin-backed Republican was back in the whitehouse in a few years. gay picnic defence fucked around with this message at 08:23 on Mar 13, 2022 |
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Mar 13, 2022 08:16
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Putin desperately needs to take Kiev along with capturing the government and getting them to surrender. If they'll able to put that off it looks like the war will come to a close or at least some partial victory. There's a big difference between the leadership getting captured and the leadership surrendering. I assume the Ukrainian leadership is spread out with some back in Lviv, etc, so that if Kyiv falls and Zelensky and co. get captured or killed leadership just shifts to the generals in other cities and they keep on fighting. Again, I would assume that they have this contingency all planned out. But I don't think the Russians have much of any chance of taking Kyiv to begin with. They've been performing so poorly that I half wonder why they don't pull their troops back from Kyiv and just concentrate on the southern cities instead. Maybe Putin still dreams of taking everything east of Moldova.
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Mar 13, 2022 08:17
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a sexual elk posted:I just don’t get it, like big picture. Putin reacting like there was troops loading up all along NATO lines. He was winning, he funded Brexit, his trolls are splitting America, the EU was divided as ever and then he attacked Ukraine. Just why? All these YouTube videos about how Russia isn’t defensible from a ground war and he wants mountains….who the gently caress was in a position to attack or why? There was some speculation (based on vague comments from people with better info) that he may some terminal illness or something.
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Mar 13, 2022 08:20
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the popes toes posted:The Poles seem to have been already pissed. There's room for more pissed than they already are?
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Mar 13, 2022 08:24
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Mr. Apollo posted:A friend of mine moved back to Poland several years ago to start a business. He said that several people he knows have gone to Ukraine for "the chance to kill Russians". Considering the history between the two countries... I could see people wanting to do that.
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Mar 13, 2022 08:27
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Small White Dragon posted:There was some speculation (based on vague comments from people with better info) that he may some terminal illness or something. Is there a real source for this? People have been suggesting it for days but the only articles I’ve seen have all been from poo poo tabloid sites like Daily Mail.
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