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a sexual elk posted:I just don’t get it, like big picture. Putin reacting like there was troops loading up all along NATO lines. He was winning, he funded Brexit, his trolls are splitting America, the EU was divided as ever and then he attacked Ukraine. Just why? All these YouTube videos about how Russia isn’t defensible from a ground war and he wants mountains….who the gently caress was in a position to attack or why? Your looking at it from a strategic point of view, it's quite possible putin did just really think Ukraine should be part of russia, he does seem to be a huge nationalist bent, and has written about it a few times now. That with apparently getting garbage intel and not really caring about people Russian or Ukraine at all... well it sort of makes sense I guess. Anyway what ever the reasons are as far as people can tell they were all his, and if he catches a bullet to the back of the head, we may never know, and fortunately won't have to care what the poo poo head thoughts are ever again.
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Mar 13, 2022 08:28
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Small White Dragon posted:There was some speculation (based on vague comments from people with better info) that he may some terminal illness or something. Glory. I think he's a narcissist after glory; getting his name in the history books as the one who returned Ukraine to the Russian empire. He's already unfathomably rich and in complete control, so the only thing he's interested in as he nears the end of his life is more glory for himself and as he sees it, more glory for Russia. That's my guess. We can only hope he has some sort of terminal illness and that's why he decided to attack Ukraine now. It would be loving great if he just dropped dead sometime soon.
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Mar 13, 2022 08:29
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a sexual elk posted:I just don’t get it, like big picture. Putin reacting like there was troops loading up all along NATO lines. He was winning, he funded Brexit, his trolls are splitting America, the EU was divided as ever and then he attacked Ukraine. Just why? All these YouTube videos about how Russia isn’t defensible from a ground war and he wants mountains….who the gently caress was in a position to attack or why? Conspiratiorist posted:I don't recall if I've shared my thoughts in this specific topic before, but my view on Putin from years of tracking his moves and their consequences is that of an opportunist maximalist without an ounce of long-term strategic acumen. This makes him unpredictably dangerous from a geopol perspective as he plays the shortest good hand he has as hard as he can, and until now he's had a good record of chaining together successes into something resembling strategic geopolitical victories, but a Big War requires a sort of insight he simply hasn't really demonstrated through his career. To add some specificity here, due to the expanding Ukrainian military capabilities, the longer Russia let the question of Donbass/Crimea and NATO/EU accession go, the greater the Ukrainian ability to impose cost would be on an hypothetical future move. Likewise, while Russia had Europe by the balls with the LNG situation now, this wasn't a guarantee 5 or 10 years in the future.
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Mar 13, 2022 08:29
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Mr. Apollo posted:A friend of mine moved back to Poland several years ago to start a business. He said that several people he knows have gone to Ukraine for "the chance to kill Russians". I was talking to a guy at the boat ramp today, the topic of the war came up and he said he had a Polish background (born in Australia though) and was thinking of going to Poland to sign up for a spot of Russian killing. It's what his grandfather would've wanted...
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Mar 13, 2022 08:31
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Conspiratiorist posted:To add some specificity here, due to the expanding Ukrainian military capabilities, the longer Russia let the question of Donbass/Crimea and NATO/EU accession go, the greater the Ukrainian ability to impose cost would be on an hypothetical future move. Likewise, while Russia had Europe by the balls with the LNG situation now, this wasn't a guarantee 5 or 10 years in the future. In other words... similar to how the German military in 1914 wanted a war with Russia because they believed they wouldn't be able to win a few years down the line?
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Mar 13, 2022 08:33
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Still waiting for those devastating Russian counter sanctions.
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Mar 13, 2022 08:40
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BoldFace posted:Still waiting for those devastating Russian counter sanctions. Didn't you hear? They are going to draw their own Peppa Pig cartoon and are not going to pay for the copywriter! https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-...demark-12564846 Oh the humanity! Captain Kosmos fucked around with this message at 08:58 on Mar 13, 2022 |
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Mar 13, 2022 08:44
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I heard they were going to ban vodka and caviar exports to the west but the west got in ahead by banning imports of those things.
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Mar 13, 2022 08:49
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gay picnic defence posted:I heard they were going to ban vodka and caviar exports to the west but the west got in ahead by banning imports of those things. I really don't get the whole caviar thing. It's just... fish eggs.
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Mar 13, 2022 08:53
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Big Mean Jerk posted:Is there a real source for this? People have been suggesting it for days but the only articles I’ve seen have all been from poo poo tabloid sites like Daily Mail. IIRC, people earlier in the thread were suggesting it based on some of Marco Rubio's comments (given he is the ranking Republican in the Senate Intelligence Committee) but obviously some of that is (intentionally?) vague and could be interpreted in different ways.
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Mar 13, 2022 09:09
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Rust Martialis posted:I really don't get the whole caviar thing. It's just... fish eggs.
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Mar 13, 2022 09:14
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Well can always get the caviar from Iran..oh wait. Polish vodka is still superior.
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Mar 13, 2022 09:25
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Conspiratiorist posted:To add some specificity here, due to the expanding Ukrainian military capabilities, the longer Russia let the question of Donbass/Crimea and NATO/EU accession go, the greater the Ukrainian ability to impose cost would be on an hypothetical future move. Likewise, while Russia had Europe by the balls with the LNG situation now, this wasn't a guarantee 5 or 10 years in the future. And to expand - every one of Putin's high-risk interventions was the result of some strategic disaster he didn't see coming and was unable to prevent. Putin has never been 'winning', he's just managed to be disruptive while paying costs he finds acceptable. He doesn't actually have a strategy for restoring Russia, he doesn't have an economic reform plan to escape being a petrostate, and after repeated attempts he still has no succession plan. E: I dont think it matters if he's got some kind of disease. Dude has been running the country for 20 years and is old. He looks bored out of his mind all the time and has an ever shrinking inner circle to talk to. He's on a throne he can't get off and that will mess with anyones head. Alchenar fucked around with this message at 09:33 on Mar 13, 2022 |
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Mar 13, 2022 09:29
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the popes toes posted:I saw this and thought it rather good evidence that Russia's air isn't doing much of what air usually does, or the Ukrainians aren't fearful of Russian aircraft, or Russia doesn't have counter-battery kit or all three. Or it's staged. This looks to be in the middle of the steppe for chrissake Music source: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKCQNYKFZY5uIV9s-196IXw Nice beats from Ukraine!
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Mar 13, 2022 09:30
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Big Mean Jerk posted:Is there a real source for this? People have been suggesting it for days but the only articles I’ve seen have all been from poo poo tabloid sites like Daily Mail. No, it's just wishful thinking by people with too much time on their hands.
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Mar 13, 2022 09:34
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Rust Martialis posted:I really don't get the whole caviar thing. It's just... fish eggs. Same, but with steak. It's just ... pieces cut out of a cow.
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Mar 13, 2022 09:37
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Alchenar posted:E: I dont think it matters if he's got some kind of disease. Dude has been running the country for 20 years and is old. He looks bored out of his mind all the time and has an ever shrinking inner circle to talk to. He's on a throne he can't get off and that will mess with anyones head. We may never even know, but unfortunately even if it is true, he can still do tons of damage in the few years he has left.
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Mar 13, 2022 09:42
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A few more details have come out regarding the strike near Lviv https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1502925917815025665?t=Vy6PJw-OdEq92Gbz3Ntnrg&s=19 I'm guessing there will be more in a few hours.
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Mar 13, 2022 09:44
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Another kidnapped mayor, Yevhen Maveev of Dniprorudne. https://twitter.com/ukrpravda_news/status/1502917809004855296?s=20&t=B9W5EGddZi9GeX1D_TFh-A
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Mar 13, 2022 09:45
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I think its important to note that we know Putin is not a guy who wants to be dictator for life because he already tried a slow passing of the reins once and from his perspective it was a disaster. This is not the version of his twilight years he wanted.
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Mar 13, 2022 09:46
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Alchenar posted:I think its important to note that we know Putin is not a guy who wants to be dictator for life because he already tried a slow passing of the reins once and from his perspective it was a disaster. This is not the version of his twilight years he wanted. What? No. The man is 69 and just started the biggest war in europe since WW2. He also changed the constitution enabling to stay in power until 2036. He ain't going anywhere.
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Mar 13, 2022 09:56
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Trump posted:What? No. The man is 69 and just started the biggest war in europe since WW2. He also changed the constitution enabling to stay in power until 2036. He ain't going anywhere. He's not going anywhere, but I think it's clear that 10 years ago this was not Plan A for his life. This is the Plan B that he's taking because he feels he's got no other choice for Russia and for his legacy, and I think that's the thing people missed in the run-up to this war on how his motivation has changed. He's got nobody to hand off to and that means he personally is unhappily having to get everything he thinks needs to happen to restore Russia done himself.
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Mar 13, 2022 10:00
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Alchenar posted:I think its important to note that we know Putin is not a guy who wants to be dictator for life because he already tried a slow passing of the reins once and from his perspective it was a disaster. This is not the version of his twilight years he wanted. Did he really try? Because I thought it was just a trick the libs hate to bypass term limits.
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Mar 13, 2022 10:01
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mobby_6kl posted:Did he really try? Because I thought it was just a trick the libs hate to bypass term limits. Medvedev was able to chart his own course enough that it was clear he wasn't just Putin doing a puppet show. Obviously Putin retained enough real power to say 'okay I want my job back now' but it feels to me like he really was testing the waters on being able to safely step away from politics.
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Mar 13, 2022 10:05
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Apparently Medvedev was too liberal for Putin so he took back control of the country.Youth Decay posted:Another kidnapped mayor, Yevhen Maveev of Dniprorudne. That seems like a really good way to ensure the next town they try to take will be defended to the last man.
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Mar 13, 2022 10:06
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Alchenar posted:I think its important to note that we know Putin is not a guy who wants to be dictator for life because he already tried a slow passing of the reins once and from his perspective it was a disaster. This is not the version of his twilight years he wanted. switching titles with Medvedev for a spell so he could still control everything while circumventing the max amount of consecutive terms, and then changing the law to add the possibility for extra terms isn't what I would call a slow passing of the reins
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Mar 13, 2022 10:06
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Alchenar posted:He's not going anywhere, but I think it's clear that 10 years ago this was not Plan A for his life. This is the Plan B that he's taking because he feels he's got no other choice for Russia and for his legacy, and I think that's the thing people missed in the run-up to this war on how his motivation has changed. He's got nobody to hand off to and that means he personally is unhappily having to get everything he thinks needs to happen to restore Russia done himself. Yeah the Medvedev years were weird. I do agree with your read that he originally intended to retire as an elder statesman/father of the nation type, but then realised things would quickly go to poo poo (from his point of view) without him personally at the helm and has been floundering a bit ever since.
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Mar 13, 2022 10:06
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Alchenar posted:He's not going anywhere, but I think it's clear that 10 years ago this was not Plan A for his life. This is the Plan B that he's taking because he feels he's got no other choice for Russia and for his legacy, and I think that's the thing people missed in the run-up to this war on how his motivation has changed. He's got nobody to hand off to and that means he personally is unhappily having to get everything he thinks needs to happen to restore Russia done himself. I just can't agree with that analysis at all. Medvedev was a puppet and simply a trick to get around term limits.
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Mar 13, 2022 10:09
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a pipe smoking dog posted:Yeah the Medvedev years were weird. I do agree with your read that he originally intended to retire as an elder statesman/father of the nation type, but then realised things would quickly go to poo poo (from his point of view) without him personally at the helm and has been floundering a bit ever since. A key difference between the two is that Medvedev seems to actually care about and have ideas for domestic policy (something Putin just doesn't) which is why his presidency co-incides with a string of pushes on corruption and economic reform attempts. At a minimum he had his own distinct agenda and set of priorities from Putin and was able to have a go at enacting them, which doesn't track at all with the notion that he was just keeping Putin's seat warm.
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Mar 13, 2022 10:12
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gay picnic defence posted:Apparently Medvedev was too liberal for Putin so he took back control of the country. Alternatively, it will make the next mayor just sekk out their citizens and hand over every semblance of power in fear. At least that's what Russia is going for.
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Mar 13, 2022 10:17
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Alchenar posted:Medvedev was able to chart his own course enough that it was clear he wasn't just Putin doing a puppet show. Obviously Putin retained enough real power to say 'okay I want my job back now' but it feels to me like he really was testing the waters on being able to safely step away from politics. I think the infamous hot mic phrase "I will transmit this information to Vladimir" kind of roundly and instantly disproved that this was in any way true.
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Mar 13, 2022 10:27
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Also, Medwedew having some political agenda doesn't mean passing the reigns back to Putin wasn't always the plan.
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Mar 13, 2022 10:27
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Even if you think Medvedev was just a puppet (and I don't because as Alchenar pointed out he had a clearly different domestic policy agenda) it still shows an attempt to fit within the norms of a legal framework that Putin has subsequently abandoned. Putin's first decade in office reminds me a lot of the post Maximato period in Mexico where the revolutionary power structures were moved from the control of individuals towards institutional bureaucratic structures. I think that was Putin's original plan but during the Medvedev years he decided he had to retake control personally, and instead Russia has reverted back to a system where relationships between individuals are paramount.
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Mar 13, 2022 10:37
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I think staying in power was always the plan, as clearly evidenced by the switch with Medwedew everybody expected even back then. Putin simply doesn't seem interested in domestic politics all that much.
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Mar 13, 2022 10:44
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I always felt like Medvedev was probably Putin’s affable lawyer buddy who was installed as caretaker because the term limits were up and he was the most respectable person Putin trusted. At the time he was appointed, the story going through the London legal community was that he was “not bad, wouldn’t make partner at a top firm”. It must have been a nightmare for him; without a genuine power base every time he said anything people would have been trying to work out whether they had to do it or whether they could get around him and go straight to Putin. Succession is hard!
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Mar 13, 2022 10:49
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greazeball posted:The moral and legal justification for the last few American military involvements is shaky at best. We just did a better job of making sure everyone had decided to believe our bullshit before we started dropping bombs. It's disturbing to see happen again and yeah it's probably more blatant fabrication this time but it's only a difference of degree (and success). I know I'm late but this thread is lightspeed- if you're american you really can't imagine how heavily propagandized the average russian is, even by the USA's own low rear end standards. Tucker Carlson-tier "news" is the norm. Some of my in-laws are not living in the same galaxy as the rest of the world, and these are young people with overseas family telling them, in russian, "no that's bullshit." It doesn't help that russian is a big enough language to where people don't need to bother with others if they don't want to, but is still mostly confined to Russia + the former empire. As anglos, we have the luxury that if the news says Estonia is doing Literal Holocausts right now and we need to bomb them, we can pop on SA or Twitter or so on and ask. Within a few hours dozens of estonians and neighbours will tell us, in our own language, that we're being lied to. A monoglot russian can easily be trapped in a propaganda bubble. This prolly contributes to how poo poo Russia's army is doing. A lot of guys really believed the Literal Hitler Zelenskyy stuff right up until babuskas started telling them to poo poo their pants and die. Nobody who isn't a sociopath could keep morale up after that. Edgar Allen Ho fucked around with this message at 11:05 on Mar 13, 2022 |
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Mar 13, 2022 11:01
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KitConstantine posted:Apparently Russian forces pulled out of Skadovsk - there were two helicopters shot down in that area earlier today. I just found out Kherson Oblast is run by a governor from the We Have To Live Here party I love that sassy party name
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Mar 13, 2022 11:17
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From what I recall, Putin really did let Medvedev do his own thing for the most part (as people have said before Putin does not really care about domestic and economic policy, so that likely contributed to his hands-off approach) until the latter didn't veto the UN Security Council Resolution authorizing military action in Libya. Putin was livid, even more so after Gaddafi died, and after he took over again in 2012 he never trusted anyone to make important decisions ever again.
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Mar 13, 2022 11:17
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Sucrose posted:So this upcoming Russian push on Kyiv is pretty much going to be the thing that decides the war, right? If the Russians fail and take huge losses trying to storm Kyiv, it pretty much means that they're never going to take it and are going to just keep taking losses until they totally collapse. There's no way they can take Kyiv without incurring heavy losses, but unfortunately I wouldn't say that means they're completely unable to take it if they commit. If they do manage it, yeah, wait for the oblast to be turned into another fail Democratic People's Republic
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Mar 13, 2022 11:32
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Shes Not Impressed posted:https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1502876265493282824?s=20&t=81xatvHzphWVedGYuVPBOw It’s actual bullying, checking now.  They hit that base with more than 30 missiles, according to this FT article I’m reading right now - they definitely cannot sustain that rate of fire against other military facilities. Say, Zaporizhia VDV base (prestigious unit there) got hit by just 1 missile.Morrow posted:The question isn't can the Russians take Kiev; they can't. They may try and a lot of people will die, but they won't. The only thing Russia gets with such hypothetical “victory” is a water tap to Crimea, Kherson, Mariupol, and Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. If you ask me, that’s a really lovely trade for becoming North Korea 2: Matryoshka Edition. Big Mean Jerk posted:Is there a real source for this? People have been suggesting it for days but the only articles I’ve seen have all been from poo poo tabloid sites like Daily Mail. No, it’s a recurring legend, that’s never substantiated.
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