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WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

How can the tank get cool air to the troops if it's covered in more than one or two molotovs. it's going to get hot in there. Especially if you add more Molotov

And machinery doesn't work well when it gets hotter than it should. You know things boiling over etc. Rubber seals melting. The good stuff.

The Molotov may not destroy the tank but fire hurts things goodly.

Now what would be effective is wine barrels of Molotov materials dropped on the tanks like some roman frontier town or some poo poo

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 06:41 on Mar 29, 2022

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Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Molotovs can be effective, but instead of gasoline you use a shaped charge and instead of a bottle you use a rocket.

BigRoman
Jun 19, 2005

fool of sound posted:

I don't know what to tell you. Ukraine successfully repelling a huge multi-front invasion by a much larger and more powerful military without any further territory loss is a wild success. Retaking regions that have been out of their control for nearly a decade and pacifying pro-Russian partisans there may just be out of reach. Beside, Russia already has a staging ground for invasions: the border between Russia and Ukraine.

I'm genuinely curious. Are there any recent, reputable polls that indicate how popular the LNR & DNR are? Would there be a partisan movement in Luhansk or Donetsk absent Russian support? That said, I agree that the idea of Ukraine taking back Crimea is a pipe dream absent something crazy like the complete collapse of Russia.

BigRoman
Jun 19, 2005

Crow Buddy posted:

Pick whatever combo you prefer:

- They don't think they can take it.
- They don't want to pay the price to take it.
- They don't want to widen the existing conflict.
- They don't want to join the war (almost no way to avoid that)
- The Russian forces do still have to stay and cannot leave to reinforce the Ukraine offensive.
- Russia is going to lose hard. When they do, the Transnistria, South Ossetia, etc... problems kind of go away.

I doubt that Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, etc. stop being an issue, even if Russia loses, absent something crazy like the complete collapse of Russia. Would be nice though.

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

How can the tank get cool air to the troops if it's covered in more than one or two molotovs. it's going to get hot in there.
Tanks have a whole lot of mass (40-ish tons for a 'light' tank like what the Russians build, 60-70-ish tons for a Abrams) and heating it up enough to be an issue with a soda bottle sized molotov or 3 isn't happening.

I'm not a expert on molotovs' effectiveness on modern tanks but from what I understand its very difficult to knock out a post WWII tank with them. The tank designers are well aware of what a molotov is and how to engineer things such they're less susceptible to them for a long time now.

More specifically they build them to be water tight (so burning fuel won't leak into the crew area when its closed up), rubber isn't a integral part of the tracks anymore like on those real old tanks (its there but for ride comfort and so you don't trash the roads, burning it off won't throw the track of the tank anymore), and they designed the exhaust ports such that burning fluids won't pour into them anymore.

There is other stuff of course but that is the major stuff to make them highly resistant to molotovs.

I'm not saying you can't possibly ever do it....just that its going to be very difficult and you'll probably die just trying to get close enough to pull it off.

Most of the successful molotov attacks you hear about now are when someone threw the molotov into a open hatch or something. THAT will absolutely work...but its hard to pull off. I know in some circumstances people were able essentially 'blind' the tank by throwing a bunch of molotovs at it (set the whole outside of it on fire so the tankers inside couldn't see) and then had someone toss a IED at it to destroy the tank.

So again, they're not totally useless, but they're nowhere near as effective as they used to be and are highly risky to use too.

Ola posted:

Molotovs can be effective, but instead of gasoline you use a shaped charge and instead of a bottle you use a rocket.

This.

Especially if you can get the US to give you them for free.

mmkay
Oct 21, 2010


The duality of man.

Edit: nice username/post combo.

BigRoman
Jun 19, 2005

EscapeHere posted:

They don't need to assault Crimea, they can play the long game. They just need to convince the west to keep sanctions on Russia until pre-2014 borders are restored. The more time goes on, the more their German-funded petroeuros dry up, the harder it gets. Eventually Putin will die or Russia will collapse, and that will be the perfect time to discuss the return of Crimea as a condition of normalizing relations between Russia and the west. It may take 5-10 years for this to occur, but the longer times goes on, the worse things will get in Russia, the better the negotiating position will be with any future Russian administration.

I seriously doubt that the West can maintain the unity and put in the self sacrifice to keep up the current sanctions against Russia for 10 years. It's a big market with a lot of natural resources. Hell, if Trump gets elected in 2024, its game over for sanctions an unity.

Kikas
Oct 30, 2012

PC LOAD LETTER posted:

Tanks have a whole lot of mass (40-ish tons for a 'light' tank like what the Russians build, 60-70-ish tons for a Abrams) and heating it up enough to be an issue with a soda bottle sized molotov or 3 isn't happening.

I'm not a expert on molotovs' effectiveness on modern tanks but from what I understand its very difficult to knock out a post WWII tank with them. The tank designers are well aware of what a molotov is and how to engineer things such they're less susceptible to them for a long time now.

More specifically they build them to be water tight (so burning fuel won't leak into the crew area when its closed up), rubber isn't a integral part of the tracks anymore like on those real old tanks (its there but for ride comfort and so you don't trash the roads, burning it off won't throw the track of the tank anymore), and they designed the exhaust ports such that burning fluids won't pour into them anymore.

There is other stuff of course but that is the major stuff to make them highly resistant to molotovs.

I'm not saying you can't possibly ever do it....just that its going to be very difficult and you'll probably die just trying to get close enough to pull it off.

Most of the successful molotov attacks you hear about now are when someone threw the molotov into a open hatch or something. THAT will absolutely work...but its hard to pull off. I know in some circumstances people were able essentially 'blind' the tank by throwing a bunch of molotovs at it (set the whole outside of it on fire so the tankers inside couldn't see) and then had someone toss a IED at it to destroy the tank.

So again, they're not totally useless, but they're nowhere near as effective as they used to be and are highly risky to use too.

This.

Especially if you can get the US to give you them for free.

An engine still needs air. If you provide it with hot air, or fire in that place, it will not be able to work as well and you can stall out the engine. It's not easy and you need to know where to aim, but it's doable.
Once it's stalled, apply rocket liberally.


Deteriorata posted:

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

:ukraine:

Every drat morning I look forward to seeing this posted more and more. Slava Ukraini!

Ola
Jul 19, 2004

Kikas posted:

An engine still needs air. If you provide it with hot air, or fire in that place, it will not be able to work as well and you can stall out the engine. It's not easy and you need to know where to aim, but it's doable.
Once it's stalled, apply rocket liberally.


If you have rockets, just apply rockets. Don't waste your time thinking about engine intake air. But judiciously, not liberally. Respecting minimum arming distances etc. An RPG would have been better than an NLAW from that window.

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

Kikas posted:

An engine still needs air. If you provide it with hot air, or fire in that place, it will not be able to work as well and you can stall out the engine. It's not easy and you need to know where to aim, but it's doable. Once it's stalled, apply rocket liberally.
In principal you're right.

In practice the engineers have made it hard to get burning fluids into the air intake ports too by putting various baffles/vents over them and changing their positioning to difficult to aim for spots.

On top of that they also usually put some sort've fire suppression system in. I know on the Abrams the engine compartment has its own separate Halon fire suppression system for instance.

Those old WWII and prior tanks had few or none of these protections and so were much easier to knock out with molotovs. But anything designed and built post WWII is going to be quite difficult to knock out with a molotov.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Deteriorata posted:

Again, he knows Putin will never agree to this as it would mean treating Zelenskyy as an equal. It's an offer he knows will never be accepted.

Attacking Crimea right now would be suicidal.

If Russia's military completely collapses to where they can't even defend the Donbas any more, they're not going to have much firepower to defend Crimea, either. It's much more likely that Russia would voluntarily withdraw at that point.

Your basic viewpoint seems to be that Russia is a strong nation with a strong army that has Ukraine over a barrel. That's about a month out of date. Russia has shown itself to be inept and weak, and its military is rapidly falling apart. They can't replace troops or equipment that they're losing, while 3/4 of the world is continuing to funnel equipment and money into Ukraine.

Another month of this and Russia isn't going to have much left.

It's impossible that Russia would surrender Sevastopol without bitter fight. It's the home of the Black Sea fleet and southern Crimea is very defensible, Soviets held it under German siege for months.

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

Ukraine should have demanded that dumb Black Sea Fleet in exchange for the nukes.

AJA
Mar 28, 2015

Ola posted:

Molotovs can be effective, but instead of gasoline you use a shaped charge and instead of a bottle you use a rocket.

Pfft. Lookit this nerd who doesn't know about the sticky bomb. Gimme your socks, nerd.

Deteriorata posted:

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

:ukraine:

:ukraine:

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Nenonen posted:

It's impossible that Russia would surrender Sevastopol without bitter fight. It's the home of the Black Sea fleet and southern Crimea is very defensible, Soviets held it under German siege for months.

The Soviets were competent, though.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

The Soviets were competent, though.

In 1941?

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011


On the defense when they actually had the time and opportunity prepare and defend themselves in a good location they acquitted themselves fairly well in 1941 given the circumstances.

Shibawanko
Feb 13, 2013

i havent been following. are the russians still losing or have they consolidated now that they apparently decided to focus on the east?

The Lone Badger
Sep 24, 2007

KillHour posted:

I guess, but we use aerial drones heavily, so it still seems weird they just straight up don't exist.

UAVs return to a friendly airport after every mission. Tanks remain in the field day after day after day. You'd still need people to do tank-crew things to them whenever they stop for a bit, in order to keep them running. And those people would need to accompany the drone-tanks everywhere, presumably in their own armoured vehicles...

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Shibawanko posted:

i havent been following. are the russians still losing or have they consolidated now that they apparently decided to focus on the east?

They've had no major gains for a week now and have may have lost ground in other areas, may have lost Kherson, may have forces near Kiev pocketed. They taken large sections of Mariupol, but that just means that the Ukrainian forces there are going guerrilla instead of stand up fights.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Compared to 2022? Yes.

Anyway Sevastopol didn't fall until 1942.

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

Shibawanko posted:

i havent been following. are the russians still losing or have they consolidated now that they apparently decided to focus on the east?

The Ukrainians have made some smaller military combat gains here and there, but nothing decisive, and Russia seems to be trying to focus on holding the Eastern part of Ukraine. Part of that is pulling its forced back elsewhere in Ukraine as a build up to this.

It looks like the Russians are going to try and dig in and hold onto Eastern Ukraine and declare MISSION ACCOMPLISHED no matter what as far as anyone can tell.

Ukrainian MoD seems to think the Russians are going to be getting ground down more and more over the next month due to logistics + morale issues.

Lots of other stuff related to the war went on though.

BrotherJayne
Nov 28, 2019

TLM3101 posted:

Oh! And I remember that one time in 1995 when we here in Norway almost got everyone nuked. Fun times!

Yo what?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_rocket_incident

"" posted:

This event resulted in a full alert being passed up through the military chain of command all the way to President Boris Yeltsin, who was notified and the "nuclear briefcase" (known in Russia as Cheget) used to authorize nuclear launch was automatically activated. Yeltsin activated his "nuclear keys" for the first time.

BrotherJayne fucked around with this message at 08:11 on Mar 29, 2022

Cicero
Dec 17, 2003

Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.

PC LOAD LETTER posted:

Ukrainian MoD seems to think the Russians are going to be getting ground down more and more over the next month due to logistics + morale issues.
I would very much like to believe this, but it's also true that they'll have time to dig in and then they'll be the defender (sort of) right? Does Ukraine have a lot of capability for dislodging entrenched forces?

Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


Cicero posted:

I would very much like to believe this, but it's also true that they'll have time to dig in and then they'll be the defender (sort of) right? Does Ukraine have a lot of capability for dislodging entrenched forces?

I don't really see how "We're ENTRENCHED over here, deal with it while we figure out how to invade the rest of Ukraine in a couple of years" will pacify the international community. I'm not sure the Ukrainians have much more to prove in how badly they can embarrass the Russians, either.

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

Cicero posted:

I would very much like to believe this, but it's also true that they'll have time to dig in and then they'll be the defender (sort of) right? Does Ukraine have a lot of capability for dislodging entrenched forces?

No way to say for sure at this point that the Ukrainians can definitely take their land back but the Russian military's logistical issues is definitely a big factor in Ukraine's favor here.

Big armies sitting there in the field doing nothing still consume huge amounts of resources and material. All of which has to come from somewhere.

It may be possible for the Ukrainians to keep hitting their logistics lines (along with Russia's trucks also falling apart on the road), letting the Russians starve or run dry their fuel tanks in the field, and then start picking them apart.

Lots of people who seem to know what they're talking about on the subject of logistics have said something similar and given similar time tables for a while now.

Either way we'll find out for sure in about a month or so.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Compared to 2022? Yes.

Anyway Sevastopol didn't fall until 1942.

So you're saying it can be done...

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Cicero posted:

I would very much like to believe this, but it's also true that they'll have time to dig in and then they'll be the defender (sort of) right? Does Ukraine have a lot of capability for dislodging entrenched forces?

They probably would struggle if they adopted the same frontal charge tactics as Russia has been trying to date. If they decide to take their time, chip away with night time raids, degrade Russian logistics via drone strikes and pick weak points in the lines with the help of western intelligence they'll probably make some inroads.

Static defenders are a perfect target for artillery strikes. You can see videos of Ukrainian artillery hitting small concentrations of vehicles with very good accuracy and you can bet they'd be more than capable of doing the same to entrenched Russians - just drive the self propelled guns within range, fire a quick salvo and gtfo before any counter battery fire can hit them. It's a very good way to kill a bunch of Russians without much cost to yourself. Also having your buddies killed without any way to fight back is not great for morale among defenders.

Mulva
Sep 13, 2011
It's about time for my once per decade ban for being a consistently terrible poster.
If Ukraine decided they are willing to spend the next 2 years grinding the Russians down there's nothing Russia can do about it. If the West continues to send them equipment and they keep up what appears to be their k/d ratio then.....yeah, Russia has no chance. It probably wouldn't take 2 years, but if Russia got their poo poo together it could. Based on their current performance....6 months to a year? It's a guess, but I'd say somewhere in that ballpark. Defense is easier, but it's not easy. And the difference between defending a land that is yours and defending a land that you are occupying is massive. If things start going bad for the Russians it could start going really, really bad really, really fast.

At the end of the day it's the Ukrainians choice how long they want to keep up the offense and how much they are willing to pay, but if they decide the answer is "As long as it takes" and "Anything".....yeah the Russians aren't going to be able to hold anything. It's one of the reasons they kill so many civilians, beyond "They are sadists and it makes their dicks hard". They know that they can't hold ground if people really don't want them there, so they try to break the will of the populace with terror. Doesn't seem to be working out for them here though, but that can always change.

alex314
Nov 22, 2007

It assumes Ukraine can get their recon over Russian positions, and deny Russian recon from spotting SPGs. It might end up with trading hardware on pretty equal basis, which will favour Russia.

On the other hand if it comes to that we might see more NATO hardware employed.

Beefeater1980
Sep 12, 2008

My God, it's full of Horatios!






Trump posted:

This is how the NLAW works. It creates a very thin, extremely hot stream that cuts through the top armor (ERA included) and into the crew compartment. Not much spalling, if any. But a seriously compromised crew compartment.

HESH ammunition is specifically designed to cause spalling, though it can happen to a lesser extent with any kinetic force strong enough.

I feel that “compromised” doesn’t quite convey the horror here, even if you add “severely” in front of it.

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

The Lone Badger posted:

UAVs return to a friendly airport after every mission. Tanks remain in the field day after day after day. You'd still need people to do tank-crew things to them whenever they stop for a bit, in order to keep them running. And those people would need to accompany the drone-tanks everywhere, presumably in their own armoured vehicles...

My understanding is this isn't that big of a issue per se.

Mainly because the regular people controlled tanks in the field already have the same issues (tanks are constantly getting worked on in the field, treads seem to be highly maintenance intensive for instance) and so all, or at least most, of the necessary staff, equipment, supplies, etc. already exists and is trained for in war use.

There'll likely be some specialized hardware that only the drone tanks use and will require special tools or retraining to fix in field but most of the stuff that breaks frequently will probably be readily fixable. Or at least serviceable for preventative maintenance. That robot tank I linked to earlier can apparently use a common turret (as well as other common weapon systems, its not all custom) for instance.

Googling a bit more on it the Army does appear to be gearing up for some major tests (combat and tactics testing) of robot tanks (that's what they call them officially I guess) in 2022 and they've mentioned they plan to field something by 2030 or so. I think a lot will have changed by then so we can't really judge by whats out there right now. All of which seems to have a very 'beta' feel to it.

yaffle
Sep 15, 2002

Flapdoodle

Cicero posted:

I would very much like to believe this, but it's also true that they'll have time to dig in and then they'll be the defender (sort of) right? Does Ukraine have a lot of capability for dislodging entrenched forces?

You don't "Dislodge" entrenched troops, you cut their supply lines and wait for them to surrender/starve/die of COVID/typhus/TB or whatever

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

mobby_6kl posted:

So you're saying it can be done...

Ehhhhhhh

evil_bunnY
Apr 2, 2003

Wuxi posted:

Thousands of jobs were lost and world leading companies just died. Why, because it turned out that renewables were a dead end and just simply not worth it? Fat chance.
Phasing out nuclear for gas and renewables was a solid plan in 2000. Its certainly not a solid plan right now, but how do you think you can pin that on the Greens?
Nice baseload capacity you got there, would be a shame if something happened to it.

This isn't a new problem.

PederP
Nov 20, 2009

yaffle posted:

You don't "Dislodge" entrenched troops, you cut their supply lines and wait for them to surrender/starve/die of COVID/typhus/TB or whatever

You also use artillery selectively to make sure they don't sleep well and to obfuscate when/if they'll be assaulted. Harassment fire is cheap and effective.

And depending on the morale, entrenchment, numbers, support and equipment of said troops, you can dislodge them. Frontal assaults are not the only way to effect a dislodgement. People don't like to sit around under constant artillery harassment and wait for starvation to set in or ammunition to run out. Cutting supply lines and applying pressure is a perfectly valid way to dislodge troops.

But even so, there are circumstances where an attack can dislodge entrenched troops using assaults after a barrage of destruction-focused artillery fire and aerial support has cleared the way. But granted, that does indicate a highly asymmetrical disposition of forces. Can Ukraine dislodge Russian forces from Donbas in this way? Probably not. Could they dislodge a mauled BTG doing an ad-hoc entrenchment outside Kyiv? I am pretty sure they could. Sure they could just wait a bit and starve them out - but if Ukrainian command need to free up units for elsewhere, it could make sense to force the issue a bit early.

So I don't think it's reasonable to just dismiss dislodgement as relevant. Especially not when considering some of the low-morale, poorly supplied, partially isolated pockets of the Russian advance. But one could also question whether they're actually able to entrench in any meaningful way. Some of what has been shown just looks like desperation rather than proper attempts at fortifying their positions.

Crespolini
Mar 9, 2014

It's weird how desperate the Ukrainians were to get Javelins and stuff when actually Molotovs are the most perfect antitank weapon of all time :magemage:

The Lone Badger
Sep 24, 2007

PC LOAD LETTER posted:

My understanding is this isn't that big of a issue per se.

Mainly because the regular people controlled tanks in the field already have the same issues (tanks are constantly getting worked on in the field, treads seem to be highly maintenance intensive for instance) and so all, or at least most, of the necessary staff, equipment, supplies, etc. already exists and is trained for in war use.

A lot of the staff is 'the crew'. If the tank doesn't have a crew then you're going to need to get trained hands in place in some other way.

Reveilled
Apr 19, 2007

Take up your rifles

Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:

Your argument boils down to "I can promise anything on paper, regardless of whether it's actually for me to give away". I wouldn't be interested in such a treaty even if I was on the other side, because it could easily be voided.

What I'm arguing is that a constitution only functions to bind a state to the extent that it believes the consequence of a breach to be worse than observance. "I can promise anything on paper, regardless of whether it's actually for me to give away" is what the territorial integrity clause in Ukraine's constitution actually boils down to, it is the state promising not to agree to territorial changes, regardless of whether it's actually possible for a constitution to give that power away. It doesn't actually make a future peace treaty any easier or harder to void. Russia's demands include territorial changes, so even if you would not be interested in such a treaty, it seems the Russians are, and they don't seem to care that such a treaty would violate Ukraine's constitution--If they'd achieved their original war goals, they'd likely have voided the Ukrainian constitution in its entirety.

FishBulbia posted:

If Zelensky takes any deal that sees him being percieved as giving up territory he'd be maidan'd in a week. That's bigger than the constitutional issues imo

For sure! I think that's the only thing that really matters, Ukraine has the political will to keep fighting and refuse territorial concessions. I don't believe Zelensky's administration, the Rada, or the Ukrainian people want a treaty at this time that surrenders territory. But if hypothetically that changed, if the war was clearly lost and the mood shifted where the populace wanted peace at any price and Zelensky and the Rada were both willing to cede Crimea and the Donbas for peace, the territorial integrity clause of the constitution would not actually stop them from doing so.

PC LOAD LETTER
May 23, 2005
WTF?!

The Lone Badger posted:

A lot of the staff is 'the crew'. If the tank doesn't have a crew then you're going to need to get trained hands in place in some other way.

All the robot tank stuff I've seen seems to assume that there is a tank nearby with people in them so as to control the robots. Or service them as needed. They're mostly meant to work in tandem with existing tanks not as a total replacement.

Or at least that is the way it seems right now. I have no idea how they're actually going to get used and it seems to me the Army isn't quite sure either hence that testing exercise and fairly far off expected fielding date I mentioned.

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DickEmery
Dec 5, 2004
Surely if it's an unmanned drone being tank shaped isn't an actual requirement?
There's limitations due to having to carry a big gun and be armoured etc but without having to fit humans in there wouldn't they be like smaller and faster in the way aerial drones are compared to planes?

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