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Antigravitas posted:The real reason is that he's literally Merkel (except less daring and more arrogant). And that was why people voted for his party. It's really horrible how an autocratic petrostate is able to greatly influence the democratic process of countries with much larger economies. I am not claiming that Kremlin is solely responsible for all political ills in the world - but they've done a tremendous job at prodding, poking and stirring to push things very much in the direction Putin wants. I think this is a failing of western intelligence agencies. Defending against such subversion is every bit as relevant as counter-terrorism and whatever else they spend their time and money on.
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Apr 22, 2022 21:28
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Discendo Vox posted:How is this playing domestically, is the question. Atreiden posted:Is all of Germany's Politicians just owned by Russia? Hell Scholz got a nice letter from a group of prominent Germans asking him to stop weapon deliveries so Ukraine would surrender. Kraftwerk posted:Are there any specific names or parties in Germany who a pro Ukranian interventionist German could vote for? Antigravitas posted:I, for one, would've liked a younger and more competent chancellor, but there was a sustained and loud smear campaign against her and her party in the lead up to the election for some mysterious reason. DTurtle fucked around with this message at 21:37 on Apr 22, 2022 |
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Apr 22, 2022 21:30
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Affi posted:Russia has been doing similar things on Gotland. Buying homes and a (1 I believe) resort suspected of being funded by the Russian state. While also attempting to buy a harbour. Thank you for proving that I am not insane with this concern. 
Der Kyhe fucked around with this message at 21:38 on Apr 22, 2022 |
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Apr 22, 2022 21:30
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Kraftwerk posted:Are there any specific names or parties in Germany who a pro Ukranian interventionist German could vote for? SZ posted:The previous "tripwire logic" of the alliance is no longer sufficient in the face of Russian action, says Baerbock. Instead of first abandoning the Baltic states in the event of aggression and then liberating them again, Nato must be in a position to repel an attack immediately and comprehensively. To this end, Baerbock and Landsbergis point out, NATO troops must be deployed on the eastern flank. This begins with increasing the numbers of the armed forces. Pretty much the only party serious about… well, anything, tbh
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Apr 22, 2022 21:33
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PederP posted:It's really horrible how an autocratic petrostate is able to greatly influence the democratic process of countries with much larger economies. I am not claiming that Kremlin is solely responsible for all political ills in the world - but they've done a tremendous job at prodding, poking and stirring to push things very much in the direction Putin wants. I think this is a failing of western intelligence agencies. Defending against such subversion is every bit as relevant as counter-terrorism and whatever else they spend their time and money on. In this case you can't blame Russia. She plagiarized stuff for her book and lied about it. In a just world that would have ended her political career. PederP posted:Scholz to me looks to be a man who fears the aftermath of this war. He fears a long war where Russia will require years to force a peace on Ukraine - and where Putin will be angry at Germany and the west. He fears a new cold war. He doesn't want to prolong this - and he has no faith heavy weapons for Ukraine will do anything but just that. He doesn't want Ukraine to suffer and lose - but he naively wants a quick peace so the world can go back to how it was before 2014. He knows Putin isn't quite as stable a business partner as he once thought, but he has stated before that good relations with Russia is more important than standing up to their territorial expansionism. I think he has more direct fears that Putin might destroy his chancellorship by cutting natural gas supplies to Germany, which would mean Scholz gets to do nothing but deal with that fallout for the next 2-3 years before he is voted out of office.
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Apr 22, 2022 21:34
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:The 7000 missing ground troops are ominous. Some are surely dead, but I wouldn't want to be a civilian in an area where the survivors are "foraging." Let's not forget that there may also be some Russian soldiers who have deserted their posts or have outright defected and have ended up with the "Free Russia" brigade. Their numbers aren't known, obviously, but they exist. Their combat patches look very interesting also.
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Apr 22, 2022 21:40
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DTurtle posted:That list of prominent Germans is a random list of various political scientists, journalists, members of anti-war groups, former members of parliament, former members of anti-war groups, and a musician. That would be like calling out the US because of the statements of some local DSA chapters. Sure except the German government seems to act like they are of the same mind as the letter-writers.
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Apr 22, 2022 21:41
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GaussianCopula posted:I think he has more direct fears that Putin might destroy his chancellorship by cutting natural gas supplies to Germany, which would mean Scholz gets to do nothing but deal with that fallout for the next 2-3 years before he is voted out of office. Has he considered that he may destroy his chancellorship himself and get written into history as failson?
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Apr 22, 2022 21:43
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PederP posted:It's really horrible how an autocratic petrostate is able to greatly influence the democratic process of countries with much larger economies. I am not claiming that Kremlin is solely responsible for all political ills in the world - but they've done a tremendous job at prodding, poking and stirring to push things very much in the direction Putin wants. I think this is a failing of western intelligence agencies. Defending against such subversion is every bit as relevant as counter-terrorism and whatever else they spend their time and money on. There's gotta be a percentage there of the outgoing troll traffic that is just business, cheap trolls selling their craft in a marketplace.
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Apr 22, 2022 21:48
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Has he considered that he may destroy his chancellorship himself and get written into history as failson? Hahaha do they ever
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Apr 22, 2022 21:48
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Has he considered that he may destroy his chancellorship himself and get written into history as failson? He banks on the fact that his domestic agenda will leave a more lasting impression than the fate of Ukraine. He might even calculate that other countries will supply enough weapons to ensure victory for Ukraine and simply values 100k votes in a regional election over the lives of Ukrainians, who can't vote for the SPD. And it's important to keep in mind that the Greens and FDP are enabling him and could form a government with the Union, which is very hawkish on Ukraine/Russia since Merkel is gone.
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Apr 22, 2022 21:52
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PederP posted:It's really horrible how an autocratic petrostate is able to greatly influence the democratic process of countries with much larger economies. I am not claiming that Kremlin is solely responsible for all political ills in the world - but they've done a tremendous job at prodding, poking and stirring to push things very much in the direction Putin wants. I think this is a failing of western intelligence agencies. Defending against such subversion is every bit as relevant as counter-terrorism and whatever else they spend their time and money on. Reliance on fossil fuel imports has always been a security issue but now that Russia is full mask off it's evident that it's no longer a manageable issue and it must to be at the top of the agenda. It's fortunate that it meshes with the climate agenda. Rendering extraction economies irrelevant will certainly not prevent wars but it will limit what they can get away with and how much damage they can do.
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Apr 22, 2022 21:53
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GaussianCopula posted:He banks on the fact that his domestic agenda will leave a more lasting impression than the fate of Ukraine. He might even calculate that other countries will supply enough weapons to ensure victory for Ukraine and simply values 100k votes in a regional election over the lives of Ukrainians, who can't vote for the SPD. Hmm, sounds grim. Interesting, but grim.
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Apr 22, 2022 21:58
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Hmm, sounds grim. Interesting, but grim. And if this works out, Ukraine wins because of the other nations, it puts Germany again in the wrong side of history, and makes Scholz the weak-minded weasel of a person who seriously undermined EU as an equal or effective platform for its members, and also as a non-entity as a security policy in case of anything short of full-scale invasion. So Mission Accomplished?
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Apr 22, 2022 22:19
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TulliusCicero posted:Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact alive and well arnt the elections in May? like i feel like if it matters, alot of these guys are gonna eat poo poo. PederP posted:It's really not to be underestimated how entrenched the image of Russia as an unstoppable juggernaut has become in the minds of many old men in Europe (and Mearsheimer). I think Scholz and his ilk aren't just risk-averse, selfish goblins who will happily sacrifice Ukraine if that is the cost of appeasing Russia and keeping the economic relations going. They are greedy and selfish - but there's also an aspect of fear. Scholz had his formative years in the socialist youth party - he travelled to DDR for rallies and events. In those days, the USSR was the overlord of the DDR. Even decades later, such formative experiences aren't easily dispelled. The same goes for many who had their formative years preparing for war with the USSR - or to avoid it. Anyone who was politically in the cold war in Europe - especially in the countries on the borders of the curtain - cannot easily banish the ghost of the Soviet juggernaut. i think alot of it is cold war fears in the generations that lived when the soviets were still a super power and they could write its failed soviet afgan war and then implosion as a fluke. because then russia won/"won" a bunch of smaller wars. Now its clear to most people who were born during or after the fall of the USSR that this is loving stupid belief and that putin isnt some cunning tsar with some giant imperial guard and jets to block out the sun. he is an old middle manager spook who was good at being the ultimate manager sociopath and now he loving over gambled and shits hosed for his country. yeah alot of its greed or indifference for sholtz but i think he truly believes that russia will just sweep Europe like loving COD MW3.
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Apr 22, 2022 22:19
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PederP posted:It's really horrible how an autocratic petrostate is able to greatly influence the democratic process of countries with much larger economies. I am not claiming that Kremlin is solely responsible for all political ills in the world - but they've done a tremendous job at prodding, poking and stirring to push things very much in the direction Putin wants. I think this is a failing of western intelligence agencies. Defending against such subversion is every bit as relevant as counter-terrorism and whatever else they spend their time and money on. They've been prodding and stirring as after the fall of the USSR and losing the cold war they can't really do much else. It's asymmetric warfare. Troll farms are cheap and western liberal democracies value freedom of speech highly(ish) so they are very vulnerable to it.
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Apr 22, 2022 22:25
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Canada getting in on giving Ukraine heavy weapons. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1517595114411020288 quote:April 22, 2022 – Ottawa, Ontario – National Defence / Canadian Armed Forces https://www.canada.ca/en/department...or-ukraine.html
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Apr 22, 2022 22:37
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Somewhat significant since Canada only has something like 30 M777s total and 60 or so howitzers for the entire army outside of old WW2 pieces for training and avalanche duty so even if they sent like, 12, that would be 25% of the Canadian Army's entire artillery capability lol. We're just so loving bad at procurement. Canada has a similar military budget to Israel and Turkey but you'd never know it with the equipment we've got. Hell compare what Finland has with like, less than half of the military budget Canada has. Mr Luxury Yacht fucked around with this message at 22:54 on Apr 22, 2022 |
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Apr 22, 2022 22:43
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Der Kyhe posted:Pretty much the same story, although this war sealed the deal not because of Russian attack to Ukraine, but because Germany single-handedly demonstrated that EU is completely useless as a sufficient security system. Against proper invasion maybe, but if you are not attacked, but rather infested by the little green men sent by Putin & Pals, until there is no plausible deniability Germany will give just us the cold shoulder and block all meaningful actions as an EU preceding the invasion because it would be against their economic interests to care about the Finnish regions in the periphery of the EU. I think rather Germany has demonstrated that it is economicly unreliable due to their fear of austerity, which of course is ironic. Of all the second order effects, I did not expect Germany to lose political clout. It didn't have to happen and it does weaken the EU as an integral body. "Their must be order" I guess only applies domestically.
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Apr 22, 2022 22:55
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Owling Howl posted:Reliance on fossil fuel imports has always been a security issue but now that Russia is full mask off it's evident that it's no longer a manageable issue and it must to be at the top of the agenda. It's fortunate that it meshes with the climate agenda. Rendering extraction economies irrelevant will certainly not prevent wars but it will limit what they can get away with and how much damage they can do. Have a look at top 20 of the List of countries by net oil exports and find democratic nations able to collectively supply the eventual shortfall of Russian deliveries, considering that majority of deliveries from said democratic nations are already going to the good guys. Edit: There is an energy crunch going on. Low income households are in for a rough time. sofokles fucked around with this message at 23:22 on Apr 22, 2022 |
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Apr 22, 2022 22:56
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Hell compare what Finland has with like, less than half of the military budget Canada has. To be fair, Canada lives next to the USA and Finland lives next to Russia. It's no surprise that one country has much less focus on procurement details for their military than the other.
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Apr 22, 2022 22:58
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It's been a long time since I was in the military, and even then I heard a lot of stuff from a guy who knew a guy who knew a guy, but one thing that I remember hearing a lot about was that we had really good counter-battery capabilities. Basically, if you fired a mortar at a US base, the return shot was already on the way by the time your shot landed. That seems plausible if we've been spending the last 80 years planning for war against the Soviet Union, given their reliance on artillery. I won't be surprised if what's being left out of the announcements about us sending artillery is that there's also a bunch of other equipment attached that dramatically increases their capabilities. I don't think we'll see video of it happening, but if we start seeing pictures of Russian MLRS systems that look like they got blown up with half the rockets still in pods, I think we'll know what happened.
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Apr 22, 2022 23:00
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Nenonen posted:If they really were preparing for an invasion, do you think they would be building marked helicopter pads? I would build a soccer field so I could land a whole wing of helicopters. It's just a really weird detail to arzy about, especially considering that it's not how Russia has started any of the recent wars. Yeah, the US State Dept typically has tennis courts at the amb residence, which of course doubles as chopper pads if needed. Helos only need a little cleared space to land.
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Apr 22, 2022 23:01
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Alright. Now we just need to give the ukrainians the Hand of God from Gears of war. -- Looks like the war is alive on all fronts with arty shelling from kherson to Kharkiv. There will be a ground assault coming shortly. Let's hope the ukrianian repel the second major assault the fascists are planning to conduct.
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Apr 22, 2022 23:16
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Dr. Arbitrary posted:It's been a long time since I was in the military, and even then I heard a lot of stuff from a guy who knew a guy who knew a guy, but one thing that I remember hearing a lot about was that we had really good counter-battery capabilities. The US has definitely sent a number of counter battery radars to Ukraine. Given Russian doctrine revolves around heavy reliance on artillery anything to reduce their ability to deploy it should throw them off balance.
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Apr 22, 2022 23:27
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Dr. Arbitrary posted:I won't be surprised if what's being left out of the announcements about us sending artillery is that there's also a bunch of other equipment attached that dramatically increases their capabilities. ... that's not being left out actually, counterbattery radar was high up on Ukraine's wishlist and US has openly provided systems. It's a complex enough system that it takes a while to train, so it might start becoming operational soon.
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Apr 22, 2022 23:36
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Ice cold. To steal a toilet and die. https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1517609827148705802
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Apr 22, 2022 23:54
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How more politically inconvenient than this? Oh, I know, not selling them to Ukraine. France and Germany armed Russia with €273 million (£230 million) of military hardware now likely being used in Ukraine, an EU analysis shared with The Telegraph has revealed. They sent equipment, which included bombs, rockets, missiles and guns, to Moscow despite an EU-wide embargo on arms shipments to Russia, introduced in the wake of its 2014 annexation of Crimea. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/04/22/exclusive-france-germany-evaded-arms-embargo-sell-weapons-russia/
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Apr 22, 2022 23:55
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Somewhat significant since Canada only has something like 30 M777s total and 60 or so howitzers for the entire army outside of old WW2 pieces for training and avalanche duty so even if they sent like, 12, that would be 25% of the Canadian Army's entire artillery capability lol.
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Apr 23, 2022 00:04
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Mr. Apollo posted:Canada has 37 M777s and we’re sending them 4 along with the CF’s entire inventory of Excalibur 155mm shells. Sounds like the howitzers aren’t even the real piece of news here. Or is this where we learn that Canada had 6 Excalibur shells total?
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Apr 23, 2022 00:08
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the popes toes posted:How more politically inconvenient than this? Oh, I know, not selling them to Ukraine. Looks like this info has already been kicking around for about a month. But I guess it's good to keep shining a light on it. https://www.investigate-europe.eu/en/2022/eu-states-exported-weapons-to-russia/
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Apr 23, 2022 00:09
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From Mariupol, a few escaped civilians. Impossible not to sympathize. "Why does the world let this happen?" https://twitter.com/Quicktake/status/1517496800571269120?cxt=HHwWgIC9nZrTnY8qAAAA
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Apr 23, 2022 00:12
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Sounds like the howitzers aren’t even the real piece of news here. Or is this where we learn that Canada had 6 Excalibur shells total?
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Apr 23, 2022 00:13
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WarpedLichen posted:I think that's another key point.
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Apr 23, 2022 00:31
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Friend from the front sent me video of his uniform ripped apart by tank fire. Luckily he is alive ("This is the main thing" he said). There was also a happy, tail wagging dog in the video. The dog's whereabouts are unknown now. The Mosckali have been bombing his position for 2 days straight. I'm reaching out to his sister in case anything happens to him because I'm not sure how I'd know other than not responding to my messages. https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1517647859189006336?s=20&t=Ky9Mnzzt0nHVkfifhYt0Jw https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1517625229807435776?s=20&t=Ky9Mnzzt0nHVkfifhYt0Jw
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Apr 23, 2022 00:35
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gay picnic defence posted:The US has definitely sent a number of counter battery radars to Ukraine. Given Russian doctrine revolves around heavy reliance on artillery anything to reduce their ability to deploy it should throw them off balance. Is this heavy artillery reliance a weak point or anachronism? Or is it still a perfectly viable way to structure a military?
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Apr 23, 2022 00:46
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Fuschia tude posted:Is this heavy artillery reliance a weak point or anachronism? Or is it still a perfectly viable way to structure a military? Well, we're in the process of finding out. Although the answer may be inconclusive, since if it fails it may be difficult to separate failures of doctrine from failures of execution.
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Apr 23, 2022 00:55
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the holy poopacy posted:Well, we're in the process of finding out. Wait, did I miss the part where we hosed around?
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Apr 23, 2022 00:57
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Fuschia tude posted:Is this heavy artillery reliance a weak point or anachronism? Or is it still a perfectly viable way to structure a military? Artillery remains the King of Battle. It's not so much that the russians have too much artillery, it's that they have relatively little infantry because they re-organized a shrinking military around the same amount of gear, if that makes sense.
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Apr 23, 2022 00:59
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:The 7000 missing ground troops are ominous. Some are surely dead, but I wouldn't want to be a civilian in an area where the survivors are "foraging." Most are surely dead and the remainder likely captured. Desertion in a hostile country during a time of war, even one where many speak the same language as you, is very difficult. Especially if you want to play bandit when the other side has hundreds of thousands of men under arms.
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Apr 23, 2022 01:11
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