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Atreiden
May 4, 2008

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Supposedly he can cast his veto in person, and he’ll be attending a function in a month or two. I wonder if NATO simply can ratfuck him by having another session close by where PM represents the country or something.

Ah fair enough, haven't seen that reported.

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WarpedLichen
Aug 14, 2008


FishBulbia posted:

https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/status/1522287203304542209?s=21

Western leaders have been pushing heavily against a peace deal apparently, looking to achieve their goals against Russia with Ukrainian forces

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/5/7344206/

What's unclear from the article though is if Zelensky was considering talks at all

That's the next phase of the propaganda machine huh, the West is now pushing for war and Ukraine is just along for the ride?

What exactly are their goals in this case?

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

For what is worth he doesn't seem sure he will be able to block it himself

quote:

“As the head of state who represents Croatia at the NATO summit, I’ll put the veto on the admission if the summit is held at that level,” Milanović told reporters in the eastern town of Vukovar, EURACTIV’s partner Jutarnji List reported.

However, if the decisions are made at the North Atlantic Council by NATO ambassadors, Milanovic said he was not sure he could persuade the Croatian ambassador to embrace his position but added that “I will be chasing the sinful souls of every parliament member who votes in favour like the devil.”
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/croat-president-vows-to-veto-sweden-finland-nato-accession-if-he-can/

Also jfc get a less insane president Croatia. But there at least seems to be a majority in their parliament to support Sweden and Finland's NATO membership.

quote:

Majority of Croatian MPs support Finland's and Sweden's aspirations to join Nato, state agency Hina cited Foreign Minister, Gordan Grlic-Radman, as saying on Tuesday. He added that President Milanovic's statements about blocking Nato enlargement are "causing damage to Croatia's reputation and credibility."
https://hr.n1info.com/english/news/grlic-radman-majority-of-mps-are-against-milanovics-view-on-finland-and-sweden/

Tomn
Aug 23, 2007

And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

FishBulbia posted:

https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/status/1522287203304542209?s=21

Western leaders have been pushing heavily against a peace deal apparently, looking to achieve their goals against Russia with Ukrainian forces

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/5/7344206/

What's unclear from the article though is if Zelensky was considering talks at all

Hmm. On reading the article, it suggests two reasons talks stopped, one being Boris Johnson, the other being Bucha - one of those reasons seem a lot more pertinent to me. It also suggests that Boris Johnson was the one claiming that the collective West wanted to push Putin more. To be blunt, though, I’m unclear on the extent to which Boris Johnson of all people can be said to speak for the collective West, ESPECIALLY the EU. Whether this is some kind of mistranslation error or Boris being a blowhard trying to look Churchillian I’m not sure but either way I’d like to see solid suggestions that, say, Biden or Macron was pushing for continued war because Putin was weak before I’d agree that this is a general Western strategy.

catfry
Oct 9, 2012

by Azathoth

Phlegmish posted:

On the other hand, I thought that Sievierodonetsk was close to getting encircled by the Russians? It has about a hundred thousand inhabitants, and is the Ukrainians' administrative center for the parts of Luhansk Oblast that they control, so it would be a prize if captured.

If you believe liveuamap, there have been russian forces on the doorstep of Sievierodonetsk since early march.

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1522335461418708993
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-intel-helped-ukraine-sink-russian-flagship-moskva-officials-say-rcna27559

quote:

The attack happened after Ukrainian forces asked the Americans about a ship sailing in the Black Sea south of Odesa, U.S. officials told NBC News. The U.S. identified it as the Moskva, officials said, and helped confirm its location, after which the Ukrainians targeted the ship.

The U.S. did not know in advance that Ukraine was going to target the Moskva, officials said, and was not involved in the decision to strike. Maritime intelligence is shared with Ukraine to help it defend against attack from Russian ships, officials added.

Seems like the U.S. only provided confirmation and location of the Moskva and the Ukrainians then sunk it on their own.

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

WarpedLichen posted:

That's the next phase of the propaganda machine huh, the West is now pushing for war and Ukraine is just along for the ride?

What exactly are their goals in this case?

Accusing UP of being Russian propaganda is a new one

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

catfry posted:

If you believe liveuamap, there have been russian forces on the doorstep of Sievierodonetsk since early march.

The mayor of the town right beside Severodonetsk switched sides right at the begining, they control that town but haven't entered severodonetsk.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Japan getting in on freezing Russian assets
https://twitter.com/yuria2122/status/1522335994741428224?t=4Mgbj9zlUXzgKfhp1zuDoQ&s=19

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20220506_03/ posted:

He said Japan will freeze the assets of about 140 more individuals, as well more assets of Russian banks. About 70 more military-related entities will be added to the export ban. Quantum computers and other high-tech products will be banned from export to Russia.

But they can't ban Russian oil and gas though - it's their only source right now.

However they did release a Ghost of Kyiv Manga so they're doing their part!
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1522243621445156864?t=AHWdIUrsiK2onaokNKLKZg&s=19

catfry
Oct 9, 2012

by Azathoth

FishBulbia posted:

The mayor of the town right beside Severodonetsk switched sides right at the begining, they control that town but haven't entered severodonetsk.

The point is it has been on the verge of falling since the very beginning. it is one of the longest and slowest events in this war so far, longer even than the imminent fall of Mariupol, which yes, surely now, now they have taken it, now juuuust a little bit longer...

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

Scott Kelly, astronaut, teamed up with the general I follow on Twitter (who is a former tank commander) to put together a guide for Russian Tankers who may wanna sabotage their tanks. They then posted it on Twitter
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1522240722862284802?t=Du_TBPvvL9nsuQFE6MDxSA&s=19
The future is weird

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




Bone Crimes posted:

This really is something. I can't really tell if this is a 'hey here's a thing you could do' or a 'uh, we got nothing for you, here's some seed potatoes and some land, good luck'. If its the latter (and btw, it wasn't for everyone, it was a lottery to get the land/seeds), that is bound to start crack/pinging some Russian brains.

It makes we wonder what kind of social support systems there are in RF. Is there unemployment or severance? The article mentions " benefits and guarantees provided for employees in accordance with collective agreements consistently provided"

Forgot to reply to this. If you get properly fired, you get paid any unpaid salary, any unused PTO, and an additional month's worth of salary. If you're unemployed 2 months later, you get another month's worth of salary from the employer who fire you, and then another if you're unemployed for one more month. 3 extra salaries total if you've taken 3+ months to find a job afterwards.

Additionally, state pays unemployment support, up to 6 months iirc - won't pay your rent in Moscow, but enough for a months of food or such. There's bunch of smaller stuff, like discounted public transport or utility bills.

The problem with getting all of that is that Russian employers will frequently simply threaten you into leaving the company on terms that get you nothing at all, e.g., "mutually agreed severance".

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




KitConstantine posted:

Scott Kelly, astronaut, teamed up with the general I follow on Twitter (who is a former tank commander) to put together a guide for Russian Tankers who may wanna sabotage their tanks. They then posted it on Twitter
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1522240722862284802?t=Du_TBPvvL9nsuQFE6MDxSA&s=19
The future is weird

Scott Kelly rules. He took gold for our class rings up into space.

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

I wish Dave Gahan and Maya Rudolph the best.

Tuna-Fish
Sep 13, 2017

cinci zoo sniper posted:

I see. I'd ask if those were the illumination rounds or something else, but that may not be the most tactful question. :v:

The difference between WP illumination round and WP incendiary round is how high you set it to burst. If you see the bright stuff hit the ground, it's incendiary, and firing it in residential areas is always a warcrime.

Victis
Mar 26, 2008

FishBulbia posted:

Accusing UP of being Russian propaganda is a new one

You're adding your own stupid analysis to that article dipshit

Nowhere does it infer your proxy war bullshit line beyond Bojo being weird. Also, idk, Bucha happened but fuckin' Zelenskyy amirite

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




https://twitter.com/alexrblackwell/status/1522349550991810560

Going to be funny if US now backpedals every story an hour later just for the memes.

Tuna-Fish posted:

The difference between WP illumination round and WP incendiary round is how high you set it to burst. If you see the bright stuff hit the ground, it's incendiary, and firing it in residential areas is always a warcrime.

Oh, I've been under wrong assumptions, then. Cheers!

FishBulbia
Dec 22, 2021

Victis posted:

You're adding your own stupid analysis to that article dipshit

Nowhere does it infer your proxy war bullshit line

What's wrong with proxy war?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/26/us-has-big-new-goal-ukraine-weaken-russia/

Do you believe that supporting Ukraine fight Russia is against American interests?

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.

KitConstantine posted:

However they did release a Ghost of Kyiv Manga so they're doing their part!
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1522243621445156864?t=AHWdIUrsiK2onaokNKLKZg&s=19

I wonder if there's a way to order those from here.

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




E: On a second thought, no.

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 01:06 on May 6, 2022

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.

Telsa Cola posted:

It would be nice if instead of a series of one sentence questions which is essentially all you ever post in this thread and others about world wide crisis you expanded upon your thoughts.

How do you think they would escalate? Because they basically have no options that wouldn't immediately garner the US or someone else pushing their poo poo in.

Maybe Russia tries to sink a U.S. warship in retaliation or other Americans in other regions of the world?

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Willo567 posted:

Maybe Russia tries to sink a U.S. warship in retaliation or other Americans in other regions of the world?

That would be suicidal. Putin does not want an actual war with the US. They would cease to exist in a heartbeat.

The US is not at war with Russia, nor is NATO. Only Ukraine.

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

Willo567 posted:

Maybe Russia tries to sink a U.S. warship in retaliation or other Americans in other regions of the world?

No that would start a war between the U.S. and Russia. There is big difference between America confirming a ships identity and location, followed by Ukraine sinking it and America directly sinking it. Russia knows this.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.

Discendo Vox posted:

I wonder if there's a way to order those from here.

From here, apparently.

HolHorsejob
Mar 14, 2020

Portrait of Cheems II of Spain by Jabona Neftman, olo pint on fird

Willo567 posted:

Maybe Russia tries to sink a U.S. warship in retaliation or other Americans in other regions of the world?

It's worth remembering that every Russian target that the US is sharing intel on is deployed either within Ukraine's borders or within spitting distance of its shores, and US personnel are not lining up the shot or pulling the trigger.

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

It's Map Time!
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1522367234781458432?s=20&t=3TrTOdYBNLgvR-02HRAF1A
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1522367259569704961?s=20&t=3TrTOdYBNLgvR-02HRAF1A
For whoever was concerned earlier - It looks like the lines didn't shift at all today, or at least not in Russia's favor.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Even private companies can track vessels by satellite now after they’ve turned their AIS off. At least marine traffic can.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord
https://mobile.twitter.com/OSINT88/status/1522352991277359111

Is this real life :chanpop:

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1522372170005069828
He’s pretty charismatic yeah

Risky Bisquick fucked around with this message at 01:28 on May 6, 2022

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


the Makarov thing probably isn't true

https://twitter.com/redanblacattack/status/1522368646479331332

Telsa Cola
Aug 19, 2011

No... this is all wrong... this whole operation has just gone completely sidewaysface

Willo567 posted:

Maybe Russia tries to sink a U.S. warship in retaliation or other Americans in other regions of the world?

First, thank you for responding and explaining your thoughts more. People can give you better answers to better address your questions if you just put in a bit more detail. And to be blunt it's slightly less obnoxious. I'd also recommend taking news breaks.


To be blunt, that's not going to happen.

A more realistic escalation would be Russia providing intel on US activities to a third party somewhere else in the world where there are competiting interests. Attacking a warship would be an act of war and is a nonrealistic option for them. AND, even if they did they would likely do said action against intelligence gathering ships/planes in the Ukraine area, because then they would have a whisper of hope of keeping the resulting massive fallout contained.

Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 01:41 on May 6, 2022

KitConstantine
Jan 11, 2013

ISW is being lazy with their twitter so I'll just post the article and a map or two manually :rolleyes:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-campaign-assessment-may-5

quote:

The Ukrainian counteroffensive out of Kharkiv city may disrupt Russian forces northeast of Kharkiv and will likely force Russian forces to decide whether to reinforce positions near Kharkiv or risk losing most or all of their positions within artillery range of the city. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zalyzhnyi stated on May 5 that Ukrainian forces are transitioning to counteroffensive operations around Kharkiv and Izyum, the first direct Ukrainian military statement of a shift to offensive operations. Ukrainian forces did not make any confirmed advances in the last 24 hours but repelled Russian attempts to regain lost positions. Russian forces made few advances in continued attacks in eastern Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces may be able to build their ongoing counterattacks and successful repulse of Russian attacks along the Izyum axis into a wider counteroffensive to retake Russian-occupied territory in Kharkiv Oblast.

Key Takeaways
  • Russian forces continued ineffectual offensive operations in southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts without securing any significant territorial gains in the past 24 hours.
  • Ukrainian officials and military officers confirmed that Russian forces have breached the Azovstal facility itself and confirmed that Ukrainian forces are losing ground. Russian forces will likely capture the facility in the coming days.
  • Ukrainian offensive operations around Kharkiv likely intend to push Russian forces out of artillery range of Kharkiv city, force Russian units to redeploy from the Izyum axis, and potentially threaten Russian lines of communication.
  • Russian forces conducted limited offensive operations toward Zaporizhia City but did not conduct any attacks in Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts in the last 24 hours. Ukrainian forces claimed to recapture additional territory west of Kherson, but ISW cannot independently confirm any advances.
...
Russian forces continued ineffectual offensive operations in southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk Oblasts without securing any significant territorial gains in the past 24 hours. The Pentagon assessed that Russian forces have not been able to make further advances due to their inability to conduct offensive operations far from their ground lines of communication (GLOCs) along highways, as ISW previously assessed, and muddy terrain.

...
Russian forces continued offensive operations toward Zaporizhia City but did not conduct any attacks in Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts on May 5.[17] Ukraine’s Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration reported that Russian forces attacked Hulyaipole, near the Donetsk Oblast border, throughout the day.[18] The Administration additionally stated up to 13 battalion tactical groups are concentrated on this line of advance toward Zaporizhia City or the Donetsk Oblast administrative borders from the west, though these battalion tactical groups (BTGs) are almost certainly understrength.[19] Zaporizhia authorities noted that Russian forces operating in the region are more cautious than during the initial stage of the war and are increasing their use of reconnaissance assets.[20]
...
Russian authorities in occupied Crimea claimed on May 5 that Russian forces restored railway connections between Crimea and Kherson Oblast for cargo and passenger trains, likely to improve logistics on the southern front.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Ukraine: "We have sunk the Rostov-na-Donu"

Rostov-na-Donu: *surfaces* "No you didn't! We're right here!" *explodes*

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

What I've come to realize is there seems to be a lack of understanding how fronts actually work. I would suggest some people take a deep dive into defense and depth. I'm sure you can stop by your local War college and ask the librarian for "tales of the eastern front a tank commanders journey from Stalingrad to Berlin".

I'm kidding. However it is recommended to study and understand how defensive lines and ramparts work so you can understand further how the Russian offensive is doomed to fail probably in 10 to 20 km or less. Even with artillery and tanks etc they cannot seem to break the defensive formations that the ukrainians have created. While we see some lines being broken through and a kilometer are here getting gained they're not making these decisive breakthroughs that are needed to create major salience. I mean their largest saline is like 5 km long. There's Ukrainian engineers/builders digging trenches and creating strong points while this is going on. The defenses are going to get thicker and thicker the further back that the ukrainians have to go. You know there's no air superiority on the Russian side especially with what we've seen today which is the Ukrainian Air Force fire on all loving cylinders. I theorize this might mean that the Russians are running out of anti-air equipment and have to concentrate it more but we won't know for like a week or. So with the ukrainians having the ability to project air power into the front they will be able to wage more efficient combat with the russians. The attacker is not motivated at all and from the article I read yesterday would appear that they thought this thing was going to be over in a couple days.

I mean the Russians are definitely fortifying towns but they are not building major defense complexes. I mean they don't have the money for it and they don't have the motivation to do so unlike the ukrainians which are going to be building and pouring pill boxes etc especially in areas they know will be heavily contested in the event of more than a few kilometers a week.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian. :unsmith:

:ukraine:

Willo567
Feb 5, 2015

Cheating helped me fail the test and stay on the show.

Telsa Cola posted:

First, thank you for responding and explaining your thoughts more. People can give you better answers to better address your questions if you just put in a bit more detail. And to be blunt it's slightly less obnoxious. I'd also recommend taking news breaks.


To be blunt, that's not going to happen.

A more realistic escalation would be Russia providing intel on US activities to a third party somewhere else in the world where there are competiting interests. Attacking a warship would be an act of war and is a nonrealistic option for them. AND, even if they did they would likely do said action against intelligence gathering ships/planes in the Ukraine area, because then they would have a whisper of hope of keeping the resulting massive fallout contained.

I only asked because there's a bunch of pundits who think that Russia could escalate as a result of the U.S. revealing this information

https://twitter.com/Nick_L_Miller/status/1522380483706949633
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1522334098827657216
https://twitter.com/RichardHaass/status/1522387374315126784

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

Willo567 posted:

I only asked because there's a bunch of pundits who think that Russia could escalate as a result of the U.S. revealing this information

https://twitter.com/Nick_L_Miller/status/1522380483706949633
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1522334098827657216
https://twitter.com/RichardHaass/status/1522387374315126784

No you only asked because you have a crippling and severe anxiety about various things that causes you to essentially spam this thread with leaning questions constantly. Get help. Seriously.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Who the gently caress are these fucks talking to?

Ah yeah Russia will call itself a victim after it's actively killing loving CHILDREN because the big bad US helped kill it's fascist war machines leaders. Come on.


Yeah who the gently caress is so stupid that they change sides based on day to day information? Those people don't give a poo poo about this war at all. They are drudgery. They are the fools who probably read Russia loving today in conjunction with FOX and guess what they already chose their side of this thing.



Imagine you see the world through a perfectly spherical brain.
"It's a distraction from Russia crimes" wow gee these Russian generals keep dying so they are definitely the victim here.

KillHour
Oct 28, 2007


WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Who the gently caress are these fucks talking to?

Ah yeah Russia will call itself a victim after it's actively killing loving CHILDREN because the big bad US helped kill it's fascist war machines leaders. Come on.


Yeah who the gently caress is so stupid that they change sides based on day to day information? Those people don't give a poo poo about this war at all. They are drudgery. They are the fools who probably read Russia loving today in conjunction with FOX and guess what they already chose their side of this thing.



Imagine you see the world through a perfectly spherical brain.
"It's a distraction from Russia crimes" wow gee these Russian generals keep dying so they are definitely the victim here.

Nothing is too absurd to respond to by clutching pearls.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

The US is bragging about the war in ukraine because it's another GOOD war like WW2. Funny enough there's like 3 Vietnam war movies and about 10,000,000,000,000,000,000 WW2 movies.

We love bragging about killing Nazis so bragging about Russian Nazis being killed with our spy glasses is par for the course.

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gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Willo567 posted:

I only asked because there's a bunch of pundits who think that Russia could escalate as a result of the U.S. revealing this information

https://twitter.com/Nick_L_Miller/status/1522380483706949633
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1522334098827657216
https://twitter.com/RichardHaass/status/1522387374315126784

If anything it's just getting it all out in the open so that when the US starts beaming firing solutions directly into Ukrainian operated SPGs it isn't such a giant escalation.

If Russia complains too much about escalation the obvious response is that Russia could quite easily de-escalate by doing what Putin's dad should've done and pull out.

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