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cinci zoo sniper posted:Remember the mystery of 3 countries with objections on candidacy bid? It was the Netherlands, as expected, but also Denmark and Portugal. NL's also supporting Ukraine's candidacy now https://nltimes.nl/2022/06/17/netherlands-now-voicing-support-ukraines-eu-candidacy
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Jun 17, 2022 16:10
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PerilPastry posted:Did they elaborate on this? Between sanctions, continued Russian manpower shortages and the steady trickle of western armaments, it seems like a counterintuitive conclusion to me. In this past post, I quoted a major portion of a DOD press conference. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3993516&userid=58668&perpage=40&pagenumber=3#post523774809
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Jun 17, 2022 16:13
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Kaal posted:Russia has basically spent the entirety of the war retreating and reducing its ambitions. It seems pretty clear that in six months time the Russians will be occupying four square kilometers of empty Ukrainian soil and the anti-American crew will be extolling Putin's inexorable victory. To be fair, the more Russia pulls back the scope of the war the more successful they have been. At some point they will reach an equilibrium between their ambitions and their capabilities, and right now it looks an awful lot like that equilibrium will be just enough to achieve their most important war aims. AFAIK no one's leaked details of where exactly the peace process broke down but it seemed like the sticking points were Ukraine's offer of de facto recognition of Crimea/Donetsk/Luhansk with details to be formalized in future negotiations and no NATO/no foreign military bases didn't seem to be good enough for Russia and Ukraine was not willing to concede more.
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Jun 17, 2022 16:16
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mlmp08 posted:In this past post, I quoted a major portion of a DOD press conference. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3993516&userid=58668&perpage=40&pagenumber=3#post523774809 That's from the 27th of May. Given that Russia has not been able to close the encirclement since then...  https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1537693150105444353?s=20&t=mHvSDLYfex11ZqEQ_Mr7NQTagged for Combat footage Harpoons being put to good use already. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 19:40 on Jun 17, 2022 |
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Jun 17, 2022 16:16
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Remember the mystery of 3 countries with objections on candidacy bid? It was the Netherlands, as expected, but also Denmark and Portugal. The Danish objection was misunderstood. The position was to follow the recommendations of the commission. Which means that Denmark backs the commissions recommendation to give candidate status to Ukraine.
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Jun 17, 2022 16:19
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https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1537807309295992833?s=20&t=mHvSDLYfex11ZqEQ_Mr7NQ
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Jun 17, 2022 16:21
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CommieGIR posted:That's from the 27th of May. Given that Russia has not been able to close the encirclement since then... What does that have to do with Ukraine retaking Donbas, Luhansk, and Crimea or terms for an end to the war? Here is reporting from 16 June 2022: mlmp08 posted:https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/secretaries-defense-state-said-publicly-us-wanted-ukraine-win-biden-sa-rcna33826 quote:“Biden was not happy when Blinken and Austin talked about winning in Ukraine,” one of them said. “He was not happy with the rhetoric.”
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Jun 17, 2022 16:26
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mlmp08 posted:What does that have to do with Ukraine retaking Donbas, Luhansk, and Crimea or terms for an end to the war? Why does this matter? Zelensky sets those terms, and frankly the EU and others back Zelensky's views on the terms they've set because Russia has given no indication that they will honor any terms other than a major military defeat in the field. There is no fig leaf, because Ukraine gave Russia multiple fig leaves only for Russia to say "that's not enough" and do this entire invasion in the first place. Who cares what Biden feels about it. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 16:30 on Jun 17, 2022 |
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Jun 17, 2022 16:28
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CommieGIR posted:https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1537807309295992833?s=20&t=mHvSDLYfex11ZqEQ_Mr7NQ I am curious as to how this sort of stuff interacts with Geneva conventions, given it's labeled a being part of a civilianish rescue service, but it's not like one will be reading the label anyway.
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Jun 17, 2022 16:29
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Some interesting info on TB2 range and control: https://twitter.com/in_memoriam818/status/1416375772718247940?s=20&t=mHvSDLYfex11ZqEQ_Mr7NQ
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Jun 17, 2022 16:29
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Guys. I've read the DOD reports. Vietnam Iraq and Afghanistan will be bulwarks of democracy however Ukraine will fall. Afghanistan has a motivated army ready to fight for its freedom against religious tyranny. Ukraine however is doomed and will fall within a week of Russia attacking. If you decide to take the DOD pill and fully believe the reports that are put out you are an idioy. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 17, 2022 16:30
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I dunno, I don't let myself develop any optimism about anything nowadays. However Macron and his band of merry centrists just reinforced that they support Ukrainian victory and return of all territory, so who the hell knows what Biden is now thinking suddenly.
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Jun 17, 2022 16:37
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mobby_6kl posted:I dunno, I don't let myself develop any optimism about anything nowadays. However Macron and his band of merry centrists just reinforced that they support Ukrainian victory and return of all territory, so who the hell knows what Biden is now thinking suddenly. Its fine to be not optimistic, but its another to assume Ukraine is going to lose. So far that hasn't played out and every time Russia get's some momentum it quickly peters out. Ukraine isn't winning in territory gains, but they are in ensuring Russia has the inability to consolidate and act freely to really build on the gains they do get.
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Jun 17, 2022 16:41
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GaussianCopula posted:It's basically a decision between two countries: the US and Germany. If the US is not willing (or able) to supply Abrams tanks, then it leaves only Germany as the Leopard family is the only other MBT that can conceivably be supplied to Ukraine in any meaningful way - both the Challenger2 and LeClerc are out of production and canibalizing their own stocks for spare parts already. The M1A2 SEPv3's are already getting rolled out, SEPv4 is in the works, and there are rumors of an M1A3 being developed. The US has plenty of M1A2s (non-SEP) in storage, and I believe SEP changed the armor type a bit. Just give Ukraine the older M1A2s already and work on the logistics. Logistics will likely be the biggest constraint on the number of tanks Ukraine can field practically. sean10mm posted:I'm for maximal aid to Ukraine, it just feels like some people are doing the thing where they assume something they know nothing about must be easy. This is a good and accurate post. Any single task is simple, but doing them all in a coordinated way is hard. Neurolimal posted:I mean, an alliance of nations traumatised by US intervention would be quite large But still smaller than a similar set for Russia.  (To be fair, Central America has a lot of countries...)[quote="fatherboxx" post="524229372"] He has been singing this song for ten years and it has always been laughable, especially now where the only reliable allies are client states in Belarus in Syria. [/quote If Russia is a pole, it is a very small pole. The world is indeed multipolar, and the big ones are the US, the EU, China, and probably India.
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Jun 17, 2022 16:43
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I was very disappointed in the way the war has been used politically in the US but I have to imagine its some mixture of it not being popular enough to be utilized or people in the know were way more pessimistic about the long term outcome. What the NBC news report makes me think is that the official prognosis is eternal quagmire and they didn't want to to tie the view of the administration to a forever war. I don't think they believe Ukraine will lose, I think they believe the war will last through the election cycle and would rather fund it quietly over letting the costs become a talking point.
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Jun 17, 2022 16:49
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"we support full victory" is just repackaged " thoughts and prayers" until something tangible materialises.
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Jun 17, 2022 16:50
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mobby_6kl posted:I dunno, I don't let myself develop any optimism about anything nowadays. However Macron and his band of merry centrists just reinforced that they support Ukrainian victory and return of all territory, so who the hell knows what Biden is now thinking suddenly. "Defense" versus "victory" feels like a mostly rhetorical line anyhow. If (and this is still a big if) Ukraine pushes Russia back to the 2014 borders, is that Ukraine "winning the war" or Ukraine "defending its territory"? All of which just makes the handwringing more ridiculous, although I do think there may be an element of tempering expectations there.
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Jun 17, 2022 16:53
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Is there any evidence to suggest Putin had backchannel discussions where he credibly promised anything that shifts the balance of power too heavily in favour of Ukraine would result in a state of war between Russia and NATO?
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Jun 17, 2022 16:59
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Kraftwerk posted:Is there any evidence to suggest Putin had backchannel discussions where he credibly promised anything that shifts the balance of power too heavily in favour of Ukraine would result in a state of war between Russia and NATO? That doesn't make any sense though, if Russia starts losing a war with Ukraine they'll start a fight with even more countries?
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Jun 17, 2022 17:04
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mobby_6kl posted:I dunno, I don't let myself develop any optimism about anything nowadays. However Macron and his band of merry centrists just reinforced that they support Ukrainian victory and return of all territory, so who the hell knows what Biden is now thinking suddenly. A commitment for the victory condition to be the return of all territory lost since 2014 means a long, extremely bloody war. I can understand why some are hesitant to commit to that. These countries are also all democracies. Their public messages have a lot more to do with what they think voters want to hear than with actual plans. FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 17:07 on Jun 17, 2022 |
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Jun 17, 2022 17:05
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WarpedLichen posted:That doesn't make any sense though, if Russia starts losing a war with Ukraine they'll start a fight with even more countries? The implication is if Russia loses in Ukraine as a result of western heavy weapons and aviation, then they will use their ICBMs.
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Jun 17, 2022 17:06
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Kraftwerk posted:Is there any evidence to suggest Putin had backchannel discussions where he credibly promised anything that shifts the balance of power too heavily in favour of Ukraine would result in a state of war between Russia and NATO? Every Russian negotiation has demanded neutrality and allowing Russia to veto any EU/NATO discussion by Ukraine. And why shouldn't they demand that since they've made it abundantly clear this is about controlling Ukraine and outright ethnic cleansing of Ukraine as an identity and culture. FishBulbia posted:A commitment for the victory condition to be the return of all territory lost since 2014 means a long, extremely bloody war. I can understand why some are hesitant to commit to that. Well thank goodness Russia made the choice and committed to an invasion, where its pretty much the only option is to fight back because the other option is allowing the outright ethnic cleansing and genocide Russia is now openly flaunting to continue.
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Jun 17, 2022 17:06
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CommieGIR posted:
No one has to agree with the president. I posted it to give an update on the long-term assessment from the government that maybe was most correct about the buildup and launch of the war. It also may signify what scope the US could take to preserve Ukraine (maybe aid to preserve existence but not full return of all territory, I dunno). A war in progress is a lot harder to predict than a massive war buildup, but the DOD has been signaling since February and March that Russia is pretty big and powerful, and preserving 100% territorial integrity is technically possible but quite a difficult prospect to achieve.
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Jun 17, 2022 17:07
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If we really wanted to be cynical, look at it ghoulishly, and if we took what we said (before Biden got mad) at face value, the goal of the Unites States could simply be to keep the Ukraine buzzsaw going. Maybe we also want Ukraine to be a free Democracy and protect Europe from Russian aggression but that might be secondary. With just enough aid that Ukraine keeps fighting and dying, but not so much that Russia quickly realizes they are doomed and fucks off. Keep Russia (or at least Putin) believing that maybe if they just try hard enough and keep sending more and more Russians and equipment in to die, he just might pull off an improbable victory, and by the time he finally sees later this year or next that its impossible, he will have utterly annihilated his own army, removing Russia as a threat for the foreseeable future.
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Jun 17, 2022 17:07
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mlmp08 posted:No one has to agree with the president. I posted it to give an update on the long-term assessment from the government that maybe was most correct about the buildup and launch of the war. It also may signify what scope the US could take to preserve Ukraine (maybe aid to preserve existence but not full return of all territory, I dunno). A war in progress is a lot harder to predict than a massive war buildup, but the DOD has been signaling since February and March that Russia is pretty big and powerful, and preserving 100% territorial integrity is technically possible but quite a difficult prospect to achieve. The US also believed Ukraine would fall in 3 days, so there's plenty of reason to remain skeptical of their assessment.
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Jun 17, 2022 17:08
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CommieGIR posted:Well thank goodness Russia made the choice and committed to an invasion, where its pretty much the only option is to fight back because the other option is allowing the outright ethnic cleansing and genocide Russia is now openly flaunting to continue. What exactly is the argument here? That the most moral outcome is the one that comes to pass? The world literally accepted Taliban victory a year ago.
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Jun 17, 2022 17:11
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From a long thread on Russia's economic meeting. https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1537823890650583042
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Jun 17, 2022 17:12
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FishBulbia posted:What exactly is the argument here? That the most moral outcome is the one that comes to pass? The world literally accepted Taliban victory a year ago. Where was the moral outcome in the US staying? These are not comparable situations.
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Jun 17, 2022 17:12
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CommieGIR posted:Where was the moral outcome in the US staying? These are not comparable situations. Taliban victory was infinitely more immoral. Events do not hinge on morality.
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Jun 17, 2022 17:14
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CommieGIR posted:The US also believed Ukraine would fall in 3 days, so Do you have a source for that?
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Jun 17, 2022 17:14
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mlmp08 posted:Do you have a source for that? https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/25/politics/kyiv-russia-ukraine-us-intelligence/index.html https://www.newsweek.com/us-expects-kyiv-fall-days-ukraine-source-warns-encirclement-1682326 https://www.foxnews.com/us/gen-milley-says-kyiv-could-fall-within-72-hours-if-russia-decides-to-invade-ukraine-sources FishBulbia posted:Taliban victory was infinitely more immoral. Events do not hinge on morality. Okay and how does that apply here?
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Jun 17, 2022 17:15
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CommieGIR posted:https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/25/politics/kyiv-russia-ukraine-us-intelligence/index.html Even though the occupation of Crimea is immoral, some western countries are reluctant to set the return of all occupied territory as the victory condition for strategic reasons and instead propose ukrainian statehood survival and the return of territory taken since feb 24 as the victory condition.
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Jun 17, 2022 17:21
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FishBulbia posted:Even though the occupation of Crimea is immoral, some western countries are reluctant to set the return of all occupied territory as the victory condition for strategic reasons and instead propose ukrainian statehood survival and the return of territory taken since feb 24 as the victory condition. But that's not for them to decide is it? And frankly, Ukraine is correct to demand it, even if its unrealistic, because Russia will continue to use their annexation as justification for continued and future conflicts because that's the entire goal of the entirety of this invasion is to delegitimize Ukraine and crush them as a state through piecemeal annexation. There is no fig leaf that will pacify Russia, because they'll just use it as an excuse to demand end to sanctions and rebuild their army for the next attempt and Putin is actively doubling down on it.
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Jun 17, 2022 17:22
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PederP posted:The Danish objection was misunderstood. The position was to follow the recommendations of the commission. Which means that Denmark backs the commissions recommendation to give candidate status to Ukraine. Daztek posted:NL's also supporting Ukraine's candidacy now I see, cheers. mlmp08 posted:In this past post, I quoted a major portion of a DOD press conference. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3993516&userid=58668&perpage=40&pagenumber=3#post523774809 That bit is really vague with respect to which clock is ticking and on which graces. Kraftwerk posted:Is there any evidence to suggest Putin had backchannel discussions where he credibly promised anything that shifts the balance of power too heavily in favour of Ukraine would result in a state of war between Russia and NATO? No. mlmp08 posted:Do you have a source for that? The sources said that the initial US assessment from before the invasion -- which anticipated that the Ukrainian capital would be overrun within one to four days of a Russian attack -- remains the current expectation. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/25/politics/kyiv-russia-ukraine-us-intelligence/index.html
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Jun 17, 2022 17:24
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CommieGIR posted:https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/25/politics/kyiv-russia-ukraine-us-intelligence/index.html To add some context to GEN Milley’s reported comments, check the date: quote:Milley told lawmakers during closed-door briefings on Feb. 2 and 3 that a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine could result in the fall of Kyiv within 72-hours, and could come at a cost of 15,000 Ukrainian troop deaths and 4,000 Russian troop deaths. The US and other nations were racing to ship weapons in February, focusing on those that would assist in fights like stopping the northern axis armor run, such as infantry anti-tank weapons and MANPADS. Secretary Austin addressed this in congress, when asked why Russia had not overrun Ukraine as rapidly as some analysts expected may occur. quote:A fired-up Austin shot back: "Has it occurred to you Russia has not overrun Ukraine because of what we've done and what our allies have done? Have you ever even thought about that?" https://www.military.com/daily-news...ke-ism.html/amp A bit more info on the timeline: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/04/us-weapons-ukraine/
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Jun 17, 2022 17:32
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WarpedLichen posted:That doesn't make any sense though, if Russia starts losing a war with Ukraine they'll start a fight with even more countries? See: Germany, December 1941. CommieGIR posted:The US also believed Ukraine would fall in 3 days, so there's plenty of reason to remain skeptical of their assessment. It is worth remembering that when it comes to military assessments there is a strong bias for being pessimistic, for what are hopefully obvious reasons. Also there are significant aspects of combat power--morale, training efficacy, aptitude--that are very hard for outside observers to assess.
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Jun 17, 2022 17:33
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That's just a sad build quality for an occupation monument. Love how the first guy expected it to be much more solid, so he really gave it a good kick and then found out that it is the same build quality as rest of Russia stuff.
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Jun 17, 2022 17:34
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Ynglaur posted:It is worth remembering that when it comes to military assessments there is a strong bias for being pessimistic, for what are hopefully obvious reasons. Also there are significant aspects of combat power--morale, training efficacy, aptitude--that are very hard for outside observers to assess. I'm not saying the pessimism isn't warranted, but I am saying that Ukraine shouldn't use that pessimism as a basis for negotiations with a known bad faith actor like Putin.
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Jun 17, 2022 17:34
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CommieGIR posted:But that's not for them to decide is it? And frankly, Ukraine is correct to demand it, even if its unrealistic, because Russia will continue to use their annexation as justification for continued and future conflicts because that's the entire goal of the entirety of this invasion is to delegitimize Ukraine and crush them as a state through piecemeal annexation. It's not for countries to decide their own foreign policy? Western countries that care more about the war ending than that territorial wholeness of ukraine will be increasingly reluctant to support protracted campaigns to reclaim things taken 2014. FishBulbia fucked around with this message at 17:38 on Jun 17, 2022 |
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Jun 17, 2022 17:35
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https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1537833331924017152
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Jun 17, 2022 17:44
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