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Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

FistEnergy posted:

Right. I completely agree. It's surreal.

https://x.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1754933040491483364?s=20

What part of this is supposed to convince me to support the Democrats? The part where they stump and whip for a right-wing bill full of border hysteria/racism and billions more for an Israeli regime dedicated to genocide and oppression? Or the part where they get outsmarted and outmaneuvered by the GOP yet again?

How were the Democrats outsmarted?

If they can effectively communicate that Trump and the GOP are intentionally allowing the border to stay “broken” or whether people think it is when they vote GOP due to the border, they could deflate GOP support on that quite a bit.

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Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Kith posted:

do you have substantial proof of this or are you just parroting a right-wing talking point

also it's weird that you're saying that bush's mannerisms were part of his strategy because it's implying that biden's mannerisms aren't. or are you saying that bush's mistakes don't count for ??? reasons but biden's do for different ??? reasons

The difference between dumb and senile is senility progresses. That’s why it’s more of a liability. The fact Biden has been doing this forever helps him a lot more than if he’d just started in the last couple years for sure.


Killer robot posted:

That was always a lazy take though. GWB isn't the first or last person raised in the south who learned to code switch into generic American accents for business school/work where a Southern accent knocks ten points off your apparent IQ, entered Southern politics where it makes you seem more sincere instead, and switched back. Like sure he was born in NE but he was living in West Texas before he was out of diapers and spent his formative years there.

Absolutely. I’m from WV. I had to unlearn my accent to be taken seriously when I moved. If you’re going into media there are even classes you take to lose it. I slip back into it when visiting family or even talking on the phone with them

Edit

Jaxyon posted:

The entire game in the general is energizing the voters.

As we can see in this thread, everybody is super jazzed about voting for an ancient lich, while Trump voters are excited for their fascist dreams to come to fruition.

Eh people are still pretty jazzed to vote against Trump again.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Killer robot posted:

Yeah, I mean the polling people posted the other day made it clear that while the left is still pretty enthusiastic to turn out against Trump, moderate and independent Biden 2020 voters are flagging. Do you think there's anything specific that can be done to shore up his right, since that's where the problem is? Personally I'd rather Democrats not return to the years of moving right to chase them, but it makes a tricky question.

Part of it is going to happen naturally as everyone gets reacquainted with Trump. A month ago fewer than 50% of Democrats thought Trump would end up being the nominee.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

zoux posted:

Yeah I mean, they think it's a sin. I've always maintained that the pro-life movement was more about ensuring that women face consequences for sex rather than sincere concern for the fetal lives, but I didn't expect them to start admitting it.

A lot of the anti abortion movement will straight up admit that they want women to have consequences to sex. It’s not a new or uncommon reasoning.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

just eliminate districts entirely and divvy out reps based on popular vote

Proportionally sure (in theory, I don’t think it’s currently legal), but not a straight state-wide popular vote like the senate.

It would also require you to vote on a party, not a candidate. So if a state had 10 reps and 50% voted Dem, 40% voted Rep, 10% voted Green, Green would get a representative. Which is why it’ll never happen.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

haveblue posted:

How would that work, practically? Let's say you did actually have that system and now you have the state vote breakdown and also each party's slate of proposed representatives. How do you fairly cut down the slates to fit the proportional spots?

It’s done in some European parliaments so it’s possible, though to be honest I don’t know the details about how the party picks who from the slate actually gets to go. I would think the party would kind of send out some sort of ranking that they would have to follow.

It puts a lot more power in the hands of state parties which is not super great. But it’s better than statewide popular elections.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?
Yeah frankly it would’ve taken a constitutional amendment to protect Roe from SCOTUS and that was never going to happen.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

L. Ron DeSantis posted:

It's all completely ridiculous but I feel like the practical effect is not as bad as Dobbs because presumably people who have the money for IVF can afford to travel to a less insane state to do it, or am I missing something? Again, not defending the ruling in any way, I just have a hard time believing that nationwide embryo personhood is going to be a thing. Of course I'll probably look back on this post in 2034 as I read the headline "9-0 conservative SCOTUS supermajority declares embryos are people"

Ranking tragedies is rarely productive. I would agree it’s fair to say that foisting a child on a person who doesn’t want one and exposing them to potential death in childbirth is worse than infertility but, again, see my first sentence.

Edit: and it isn’t only rich people doing IVF. A lot of people go into debt to try it, sometimes multiple times.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Raenir Salazar posted:

While the GOP do objectively seem to be in financial dire straits, isn't this par for the course for both parties?

Absolutely. I’ve donated to a few Dems and I get a deluge of “XXX PAC has spent 5x our budget on ads in YYY’s district! Help keep women safe in STATE” every once in a while. Panic is a good motivator.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Gyges posted:

So is the unholy nature of IVF and it's halocaust of unborn babies the reason banning surrogacy was on their Christian Nationalist checklist?

Well they hate gays so that’s part of it, but they have a generalized weird obsession with babies only (but always!) being born via regular sex because god made it that way or something, as if we are thoroughbreds and as if god, if one did exist, didn’t also give us the big brains that figured out IVF to go along with our dicks and things.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Professor Beetus posted:

I do have some feelings about the ethics of IVF when there are so many children without homes stuck in the foster system or on the streets. But I know what an expensive nightmare adoption can be, so I am not sure I can really blame anyone for taking the alternative expensive nightmare of IVF.

I do agree. Although adopting isn’t actually expensive if you’re willing to go the foster/adoption route (they pay you!) but you get a lot less control over who you get in terms of age, plus you have to go through the trauma that can come from the foster system which, having been indirectly involved in it for a while, isn’t nothing.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?
““Remember, every communist regime throughout history has tried to stamp out the churches, just like every fascist regime has tried to co-opt them and control them,” Trump told hundreds of cheering attendees at the National Religious Broadcasters International Christian Media Convention in Nashville.”

I could choke on the irony.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

This election cycle is likely to be a rematch from 2020.

We might also be getting a second throwback from the last election cycle: Another recall vote in California.

California requires that you give a reason for any recall campaign. In 2020, it was because of unconstitutional covid restrictions. This time, it is because there is a $73 billion budget shortfall that they blame on Newsom traveling across the country instead of being in Sacramento to negotiate a balanced budget for the state.

https://twitter.com/RecallGavinNow/status/1762212771595464841

What an absolutely bonkers waste of money that would be again.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

WarpedLichen posted:

Feels like the same could be said of the US healthcare system, lots of money going in, but output is lacking.

But we know where that money is going at least. Nobody is making a profit on public education like drug companies, insurance companies, etc are with healthcare.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?
I wasn’t clear enough, I know many are profiting on education but not at the scale of grift and rent seeking that exists in healthcare. Yet, anyway. Charter and other companies are giving it a shot.

The answer to so many of our questions is “a better student:teacher ratio” but that involves building new schools and hiring new teachers and paying them enough to keep them.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?
Yes the days when games on phones were outclassed by games on graphing calculators and the news would run stories about teenagers going mad and sending 500 texts in a month!!!! were very different.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?
99% of the problems with having phones in school and not having phones in school would be solved by them having cheap dumb phones without cameras. Can still call for their ride/to say goodbye while being murdered, can’t surf pornhub in class or bully people on instagram.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Bellmaker posted:

Fast food restaurants don't want you to work there either:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wendys-surge-pricing-dynamic-pricing-uber/

Anything to avoid paying an employee.

Ah so surely they’ll drop their prices during slow hours right

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

zoux posted:

Honestly, individual states deciding who can and cannot be on the ballot seems like a nightmare.

True but enforcement being performed after an election seems even worse. It’ll be interesting to see how exactly they explain it should work in the decision.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

zoux posted:

They say it's up to congress

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1764606248891170940

At long last, the pivot (he was claiming the election was stolen this weekend)

Right but when? Is it only supposed to be done via impeachment? Then why have the amendment since congress can do that anyway. Is Congress supposed to get together whenever in the process it wants to and declare someone ineligible?

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

zoux posted:

It was more the open kimono comment because the first Trump admin felt like being Marky Mark during that scene.

A second one would be worse:

https://twitter.com/pbump/status/1764756140548616650

Weren’t those comments pretty clearly specific to the Covid vaccine?

Still extremely stupid, don’t get me wrong.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Papercut posted:

Most people do not drink alcohol every day

Here’s a fun statistical trick using non-normal (statistically speaking) data.

American adults drink on average about 9.7 drinks a week, or over one a day.

60% of Americans drink less than one drink a week.

That’s because the top 10%, that’s about 24M people, drink 74 drinks a week or a little over 10 a day. Every day.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Failed Imagineer posted:

Interesting analysis.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1767198788689465639?t=5EJkcqOtTKBS_Zu6v4bvYQ&s=19

Maybe several generations of treating minorities as a homogenous dependable voting bloc that you don't have to appeal to in any way is not a great long-term electoral strategy

It looks like he took some movement in 2020 and then drew arbitrary arrows to make it look like 2024 will be close to 50:50. I have no idea why he thinks it’ll close that much and suspect he doesn’t and is just throwing poo poo on a graph.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?
It has been a massive, massive self own that the GOP has never made any effort to get Hispanic voters, considering they do align in values (or the values the GOP continues to pretend to have) a lot of the time more with the GOP than Democrats. There are a lot of socially conservative, small business owning, anti-abortion, etc Hispanic people. But then the GOP made its deal with the White nationalist devil a long time ago.

Edit: I admit this is anecdotal experience, but I live in a heavily Hispanic area and work in a heavily (98%) Hispanic workplace, and as a white guy the poo poo that people assume it’s ok to tell me is pretty insane. They just assume I’m conservative like them and go off.

Fork of Unknown Origins fucked around with this message at 16:20 on Mar 11, 2024

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Gripweed posted:

An issue is that to a lot of Hispanic people, anti-immigration doesn’t necessarily equal anti-Hispanic.

100% this. There’s a boomer energy of “I came through legally why can’t they!?” When the situations are as comparable as boomers who could put themselves through college flipping burgers not wanting loan forgiveness now.


Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

It was highly regional, but Democrats lost significant ground among Cuban Americans that resulted in them losing congressional seats in Florida and New York.

Hispanics in southern Texas near border towns also became noticeably more Republican, but the Democratic share of the Latino vote nationally was basically unchanged from 2016 to 2020 (up to 66% from 65%).

https://www.as-coa.org/articles/chart-how-us-latinos-voted-2020-presidential-election



Yeah I can not stress this enough: Cuban-Americans, Tejanos, California Hispanics, etc, have very little in common in terms of voting patterns, values, etc. Lumping them all together really muddies the water on what factors are driving voting patterns in each group.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

OPAONI posted:

There's also the complicating factor that in general, easier immigration general favors the capital class and not the average worker. A construction worker who gets priced out of work by an undocumented worker isn't going to be in favor of more open borders, but the owner of the construction company will be.

This gets muddled up with the generally godawful race relations in the United States, but it is true.

The issue there is that they are undocumented and not getting access to all the rights they should be. If it were easy to get documented and everybody was playing by the same rules wrt employment laws a lot of that problem goes away. Along with some of the age-demographic economic problem which I am getting more and more convinced has made the turn from “looming” to “active,” stalled if anything only by immigration.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Gripweed posted:

It is odd that the administration’s successes need publicizing. You’d think such a broad swath of major policy achievements would have an obvious effect on people’s lives.

People blame government for everything bad that happens to them then give themselves credit for anything good that happens.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Killer robot posted:

Funnily enough some of my conservative relatives are fully aware of many of these things, just that they either manage to totally not credit Biden or outright claim accomplishments as lies or bad things. As many things as they're delusional about, they're certainly under no illusions that Biden just gave up on loan forgiveness after the SCOTUS ruling against the blanket approach, for example.

My conservative in laws ride the unemployment system for every penny they can and complain when it runs out, then turn around and complain about any program that increases unemployment benefits. “Can’t believe they stopped paying my unemployment! Probably so they can go pay some illegal immigrants!”

The disconnect is very confusing to watch.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?
I can’t possibly see everybody just being willing to light money on fire. I think TikTok would spin off the US part of its business prior to the deadline.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

A Meatslab posted:

Wait, is there even a remote possibility that ByteDance successfully divests, TikTok USA finds another buyer, and continues day-to-day operations in a way imperceptible to the user base?

I'm forgetting the text of the bill. Does the new owner need to be US-based as well, or can it be an entity based in, say, Sweden or South Korea?

EDIT: Like, if the buyer was based in Ireland and subject to GDPR standards, would that fulfill the conditions necessary for continued operation in the US?

I would peg that as the overwhelmingly the most likely outcome

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?
I also want to point out something about one of TikTok’s supposed strengths. And I want to preface it by saying that I actually buy the argument that the ban really is about spying concerns.

Yes, TikTok has well developed minority, lgbt+, etc communities, because it is extremely effective at siloing people based on what they watch, how they interact, and how long they watch.

For the exact same reason, they have well developed right wing communities, supporting all sorts of terrible poo poo. You just don’t see it because TikTok silos everyone so effectively.

So it’s very much a double edged sword.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

It is limited to websites with 1 million daily users where those users create content to share with other users, so it is limited to "social media" and doesn't include sole publisher or commercial websites.

That’s a weird limitation considering the reasoning for the bill has little to do with if it’s social media or not. Is that just to keep Temu from getting axed?

Not that I would be sad to see Temu axed.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?
RFK has been recognized as being off the rails but most people and is mostly pulling in qanon nutters, right?

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?
So realtors will have to actually provide value now instead of just saying “better offer all cash over asking, this is the only house for sale around!” and collecting checks? Neat.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Failed Imagineer posted:

6% realtor fees holy loving lol. Yet another horrifying insight into the weird poo poo Americans tolerate.

In my country 1% is standard and the general opinion is that's too much for their stupid bullshit parasitic jobs

I mean what were we supposed to do, break out the guillotine for realtors? This is an example of us voting in the right people to appoint the right people to get something fixed. Went on way too long, sure, but I’ll take the W even if it’s later than it should be.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Crows Turn Off posted:

I agree that transwomen are women, but don't they still have a clear biological advantage over non-trans women in sports?

Serious question, not trying to rile anybody up or diminish any accomplishments.

There are requirements for transwomen to compete in women’s college sports including HRT. Studies have generally shown that after sufficient HRT the original advantage men have over women is gone. Her times dropped significantly before and after.

On the flip side, she was (prior to any HRT, prior to coming out as trans) a good but not great swimmer competing against men, and she won a national championship (but was not, like, record setting or dominant) competing against women. But then you’d expect her to get better even if she had not done HRT and kept competing against men, so maybe she’d have been a top swimmer as a senior anyway.

So overall, studies have shown that post HRT no there isn’t an advantage but I think you can see why someone might look at this one case and wonder.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

DelilahFlowers posted:

She was banned because she's black and made a white woman cry

She was banned because she is intersex. AFAB but has undescended testes and a Y chromosome. It’s not as simple as “her testosterone is high.”

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Rappaport posted:

Serial killer chit-chat, the Dahmer Netflix miniseries was good, it portrayed him as the weird goober that he was, and the cops as mostly awful morons.

It was very well made but man by the end I was questioning if we really needed a well made Dahmer show, or if I needed to watch it. It was extremely disturbing.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Rappaport posted:

Well yeah, it's a well-made adaptation of real world events. If someone's going in expecting a whimsical take on the material, I'm not sure what the response to that should be

I mean I knew what to expect, I just question if we needed this story made into a TV series. Near the end when people were making sensational comics or whatever and the show seemed to be criticizing people making a cash grab when it comes to what Dahmer did it seemed incoherent. Unless that was supposed to read as self aware, which to me it didn’t.

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Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Rappaport posted:

To pick a random example, I know there's people who genuinely think Homelander is the hero of his story, and I'm still not sure if the goon whose shtick was insisting Stormfront wasn't a nazi until the girls beat her was doing a funny or not, but I don't really see the moral hazard here. Dahmer the netflix show wasn't glorifying him, or trying to "understand" him in any sympathetic way IMO. He was shown doing awful poo poo, repeatedly, and the systems that purport to exist to stop folks like him failing miserably and also repeatedly. Are we really afraid this would have a perceptibly larger risk of making susceptible people "snap" than any "true crime" docudrama? Finagle knows there's dozens of those.

Yeah this is something different from a problematic character like Homelander. And I’m not saying it’s going to make anybody snap.

I’m not even really sure I think Dahmer shouldn’t have been made. It’s just one of the first shows I’ve watched where by the end I’m like “this was well made, I don’t think there are any choices made that should’ve been changed, and I’m just really disturbed and wonder why this is considered entertainment.”

But, like, I sat there and watched the whole thing. So I was entertained on some level, because it’s not like I had to. Maybe it’s just self reflection and not wanting to be entertained by something like Dahmer.

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