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Vetitum posted:He works for MI6 I thought he worked for Mossad?
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Jul 18, 2012 16:17
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You also have to remember that Syria is one of the few countries that still buys arms from Russia. Many of its former buyers now buy from American, European, or Chinese arms manufacturers. Really, the Russians should have seen the writing on the wall months ago and played both sides like Clinton did with Egypt.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:17
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Still no luck in tracking down that stream AJ is using, it must be out there somewhere because about an hour ago some controller at AJ hosed up and alt tabbed to his twitter feed while they were live streaming on international TV.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:18
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The Guardian liveblog is blowing up with reports of defections. If even half of this is true, we are definitely in the endgame now.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:19
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Chamale posted:Russia's foreign minister says supporting the opposition is a dead end. Russia seems to be on the wrong side of all these middle east revolutions - is that because the uprisings are mostly happening in areas with Russian oil interests, Americans preventing uprisings in territory they control, or what? First of all Russia is still bitter about being 'cheated' in Libya, as in their mind the NATO air campaign was not what they had approved in Security Council. Secondly even if Assad falls, Iran will still be there, and Iran and Syria have been allies for decades now. Third, Russia has never been a fan of western military interventions anywhere, from Yugoslavian wars to war in Afghanistan. They just don't believe in this world police business, at all, ever, period.* *unless they get to be the cops - eg. Ossetian war.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:20
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Brown Moses posted:I wanted to avoid spamming this thread with news of defections, especially as they are hard to confirm, but for example there's 60 special forces apparently defected in Damascus, and 120 tanks defected outside of Damascus, according to reports, plus plenty more. Un-l337-Pork posted:He means a direct link to the choppy video Damascus they are showing on AJ. http://bambuser.com/v/2836913 http://bambuser.com/v/2836864
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Jul 18, 2012 16:20
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Russia seems to have an inability to understand that if they side with the FSA they can keep their Tartous station. They must know full well by now that siding with Assad means that when he is ousted, the new government will remove the Russians as a punitive measure for enabling the massacres. Russia's cold war thinking is letting them down big time.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:20
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Young Freud posted:Really, the Russians should have seen the writing on the wall months ago and played both sides like Clinton did with Egypt. Yea, I'm really surprised that they didn't start doing this a few weeks ago. The only rationalization for the Russian position (loyalty to Assad) that I can think of is that Russia must be disliked by the rebels (or maybe just the non-Alawites)? Thus, they expect that Assad being overthrown would result in them losing much of their control/influence.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:21
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I don't think Russia really has much other choice, considering they have their own protests and dissent at home. Supporting a pro-democracy/human rights movement in one country while suppressing their own is hypocritical, and it really stinks. gently caress Putin.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:22
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Section 31 posted:So I'm reading all these defection news, if these are true then the defection are massive country-wide. It can't possibly just happen suddenly and spontaneously just because there's a bomb attack and battle in Damascus, right? If you think Assad's regime is on the verge of collapse, you don't want to get caught on the wrong side in the endgame. As for why people would think it's the endgame? All the constant reports of defections is a part.  It's a vicious cycle. Even if the defections are 50% false, the number of reports, fake along with real, add to the momentum for more to happen.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:23
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:Russia seems to have an inability to understand that if they side with the FSA they can keep their Tartous station. They must know full well by now that siding with Assad means that when he is ousted, the new government will remove the Russians as a punitive measure for enabling the massacres. Russia's cold war thinking is letting them down big time. It's probably not Cold War thinking or any sort of gaming over what is basically a bunch of wooden planks on the Syrian coast. It's probably instead more a matter of pride and principle.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:23
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Well according to the people I've spoken to there's been an unspecified plan that's been put into action after attacks on the FSA in Midan by the Syrian Army, and I get the feeling we're seeing it in action. Sympathetic Syrian army members who have been unable to defect are taking the chance, and turning on their former leaders, FSA groups moving into Damascus, etc. They are trying to cut the head off the snake, so to speak.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:25
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The FSA is claiming that it is battling to take over the state television building in Damascus https://twitter.com/Yathalema/status/225607095779721216
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Jul 18, 2012 16:25
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Section 31 posted:So I'm reading all these defection news, if these are true then the defection are massive country-wide. It can't possibly just happen suddenly and spontaneously just because there's a bomb attack and battle in Damascus, right? There are probably a lot of people in the Syrian Regime who hate the regime (or maybe just dislike it), but who remain loyal out of fear, or for whatever reasons you can imagine. The rebels showing that they can strike inside of the regime like they did this morning probably inspired a lot of confidence and has everyone re-thinking their positions.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:27
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I think* this is the link to the stream being used http://www.youtube.com/user/aljazeeramubasher?feature=results_main
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Jul 18, 2012 16:28
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Brown Moses posted:Well according to the people I've spoken to there's been an unspecified plan that's been put into action after attacks on the FSA in Midan by the Syrian Army, and I get the feeling we're seeing it in action. Sympathetic Syrian army members who have been unable to defect are taking the chance, and turning on their former leaders, FSA groups moving into Damascus, etc. They are trying to cut the head off the snake, so to speak. Plus the fear of reprisals is mitigated by the chaos in Damascus. Before most of the fighting was limited to areas away from Assad's power base, so defection in the city would come at a much greater risk. But since the army is a bit preoccupied right now, it gives them the cover to make the move. And if the FSA is now in possesion of 120 tanks...
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Jul 18, 2012 16:28
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az jan jananam posted:The FSA is claiming that it is battling to take over the state television building in Damascus https://twitter.com/Yathalema/status/225607095779721216 Ok call me stupid, but if they capture it can they actually do something like broadcast a message to the whole Syrian Nation? Or would the Syrian Government have some way to cut them off if the FSA captures the station?
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Jul 18, 2012 16:28
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J33uk posted:The fierce urgency of sometime later I guess whatever. The amount of gunfire on this Syrian stream on AJE is pretty remarkable. Kofi Annan has a long, storied history of clucking his tongue and gravely shaking his head while atrocity loomed. Good to see that he hasn't changed in the intervening years.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:29
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Shadoer posted:Ok call me stupid, but if they capture it can they actually do something like broadcast a message to the whole Syrian Nation? Or would the Syrian Government have some way to cut them off if the FSA captures the station? My understanding is that it means the state wouldn't be able to send out misleading messages anymore. It's basically the FSA trying to silence the regime. I don't think we'll see anything crazy like the FSA taking over the television and speaking to the people.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:30
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Shadoer posted:Ok call me stupid, but if they capture it can they actually do something like broadcast a message to the whole Syrian Nation? Or would the Syrian Government have some way to cut them off if the FSA captures the station? Gotta have a kill switch to prevent that happening. I'd be stunned if they didn't.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:31
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The bomb attack remains a source of confusion.BBC posted:The circumstances of the deaths remain unclear. Syrian TV says the men were killed in an explosion on the National Security Headquarters in Damascus, but it has not broadcast footage of the attack, and a BBC correspondent who visited the area says there is no visible sign of damage. Locals also claimed they didn't hear any explosion and saw no ambulances or anything.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:31
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^^^ - This is starting to sound more and more like a coup from other senior government/military officials.Shadoer posted:Ok call me stupid, but if they capture it can they actually do something like broadcast a message to the whole Syrian Nation? Or would the Syrian Government have some way to cut them off if the FSA captures the station? I don't think anyone can really answer that without physically being there, but I would assume that the State TV probably has backup generators, so I would assume they would be able to get their signal out even if the regime cuts power. If no generators, they could theoretically cut power, but that's bad for them, too.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:31
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Shadoer posted:Ok call me stupid, but if they capture it can they actually do something like broadcast a message to the whole Syrian Nation? Or would the Syrian Government have some way to cut them off if the FSA captures the station? It all hypothetical but it is standard coup procedure to take over the state television/radio building first and announce victory to the masses. People in Syria easily get al-Jazeera and BBC Arabic and Facebook though so I don't think it matters all that much.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:31
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Even if the rebels can't use the tv station to relay their own messages, silencing the state tv would be a massive blow in itself.Un-l337-Pork posted:I don't think anyone can really answer that without physically being there, but I would assume that the State TV probably has backup generators, so I would assume they would be able to get their signal out even if the regime cuts power. If no generators, they could theoretically cut power, but that's bad for them, too. Power cuts are so common that almost everyone has backup generators, and for an important government building it's a given.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:36
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Tangentially related but folks in this thread might find it interesting. There's a great article in Vanity Fair this month about Marie Colvin, the war correspondent who was killed in Syria early in the uprising. Fascinating read.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:37
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Ok so at minimum they can shut down the regime's propaganda machine. At best they might be able to broadcast their own message, but odds are the regime has some kind of kill switch and it wouldn't be all that important anyways. Either way, it will be another devastating blow if they manage to take it.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:38
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Capturing the media outlets serves two purposes: silencing the regime's propaganda and rallying the people to the revolution. Even if the regime cuts the generators or blows up the building, the FSA still wins by allowing Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt reign in the minds of those still on the fence, since word of mouth will favor them eventually.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:39
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Doesn't Ramadan begin on Friday?
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Jul 18, 2012 16:42
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I wonder how Iran will react to this sudden turn of events. Any think there's a chance of military intervention from Iran?
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Jul 18, 2012 16:43
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Sivias posted:Doesn't Ramadan begin on Friday? It does indeed
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Jul 18, 2012 16:44
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Brown Moses posted:I wonder how Iran will react to this sudden turn of events. Any think there's a chance of military intervention from Iran? Not a chance. It's logistically insane and at a time of tension for them, both internal and external it just isn't worth the risk for the gains that may come from it.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:46
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Brown Moses posted:I wonder how Iran will react to this sudden turn of events. Any think there's a chance of military intervention from Iran? Unlikely since that could easily kick stuff off on a regional scale. The Mullahs have enough to worry about domestically to involve themselves at the tail-end of a civil war. Then again, a foreign fight can distract from domestic problems. Still it seems like too big a gamble with not much to gain, the Syrian regime has been effectively compromised so any action on their part would be a temporary respite at most.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:46
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Brown Moses posted:I wonder how Iran will react to this sudden turn of events. Any think there's a chance of military intervention from Iran? I doubt Iran could get the necessary permission to march through Iraq or Turkey.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:47
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Vetitum posted:It does indeed Does this mean anything for the fighting as regards to a regime that's been shelling civilians for months?
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Jul 18, 2012 16:53
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On the whole I don't think the Iranian people care about the Assad issue all that much. It's pretty obvious watching Iranian state TV how they have basically dropped all pretense of Assad as a competent leader.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:54
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az jan jananam posted:On the whole I don't think the Iranian people care about the Assad issue all that much. It's pretty obvious watching Iranian state propaganda how they have basically dropped all pretense of Assad as a competent leader. So Iran was willing to throw its one friend in the region under the bus faster than Russia was?
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Jul 18, 2012 16:55
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The livestream of the fighting just froze after the sound of a very loud explosion.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:56
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Hey what's that on the side of my Guardian livefeed?Twitter user Brown_Moses posted:I wonder if we'll see large scale military intervention from #Iran now it appears #Assad regime is on its knees? #Syria We aren't good enough for you, Mr. Selected Twitter User? Patter Song posted:So Iran was willing to throw its one friend in the region under the bus faster than Russia was? National interests > Regional Ally, every day of the week
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Jul 18, 2012 16:56
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Listening to the Western leaders I kind of hope we dont do anything and, much like Egypt, the FSA wins on their own. Then they can tell us to gently caress off and stop being assholes and won't owe us anything.
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Jul 18, 2012 16:57
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Errant Gin Monks posted:Listening to the Western leaders I kind of hope we dont do anything and, much like Egypt, the FSA wins on their own. Then they can tell us to gently caress off and stop being assholes and won't owe us anything. We did some. Food and medical supplies, safe havens in Turkey, facilitation of cash and weapons shipments from the Saudis. Sticking our hands into a meat grinder isn't the only way to assist.
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Jul 18, 2012 17:00
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