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Xandu posted:A lot of the Already heard that the attack was a 'false flag' incident in order to drum up support for an Israeli attack on Iran by September or October later this year.  indeed.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:05
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az jan jananam posted:That they would stage a military coup in Lebanon. The initial report came from Arabiya but the Jerusalem Post reposted it Please discount this, Al Arabiya is not a trustworthy source and and "anonymous source" is downright laughable.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:07
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Xandu posted:I haven't seen any polls, but I doubt it. He's lost a lot of popularity in the Arab world, but Lebanese have split along sectarian lines when it comes to Syria, with the Christians being split down the middle between the two camps. Lebanon is an absolute sectarian mess, it makes Syria look like one big happy family. It's the red headed step child of the Middle East, and I think there's a very good chance we get a return to the 80s if (when) Syria falls apart. I realize the West doesn't want to get involved, but someone needs to start looking at options and figuring out how you bring stability to the region before it all goes off. Because make no mistake, Israel will join the fun the moment they feel threatened - and a Hezbollah coup falls under that heading.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:08
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Is Hezbollah really capable of projecting force outside Lebanese borders though? I thought them fighting on their home turf was one of the big reasons they were so effective against Israel.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:11
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Capt Murphy posted:Israel will join the fun the moment they feel threatened - and a Hezbollah coup falls under that heading. A Hezbollah coup is threatening to everyone except Hezbollah. I'm certainly apprehensive of it, given that Lebanon will fall like a house of cards. Sectarianism is a bad, bad thing.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:12
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They pretty clearly had fighters in Iraq. There's also been enough allegations about Hezbollah involving both terrorism and financing abroad that I'm inclined to believe at least some of them.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:12
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What would the goal of this Hezbollah coup be that keeps getting brought up? I mean what's realistically achievable regarding that if it all goes off as feared?
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Jul 18, 2012 18:14
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Orange Devil posted:Is Hezbollah really capable of projecting force outside Lebanese borders though? I thought them fighting on their home turf was one of the big reasons they were so effective against Israel. No they can't really project power outside of Lebanon, but that's not what would concern Israel. Hezbollah refuses to recognize their right to exist so it would - in their eyes - become a terrorist state to the north. And that's not something Bibi and co would ever let happen. I mean, it sounds like the rumors of that are from bad sources and in reality I'm hardpressed to see them pulling it off. I suppose it's possible since Hezbollah would be Iran's last surrogate in the region and they would likely receive a great deal of backing. But the stability of Lebanon is a very real concern to the entire region. It just perpetuates a cycle of violence that's existed basically since the moment Israel came into being.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:15
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As I live close to Dearborn, all my Hezbollah is the greatest friends refuse to believe anything about this conflict. They think the bodyguard was Saudi Arabian, and that Hezbollah would never go outside Lebanon and it is the strongest military in the world  This sectarianism is why Lebanese people who I meet make drat sure you can tell what religion they are on first glance. It's not cool.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:15
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Wait why would Assad falling lead to a Hezbollah coup in Lebanon? I thought Nasrallah's talk was hinting at Hezbollah intervention in Syria.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:18
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Vetitum posted:If i'm not mistaken then the Russian Naval Base in Syria is the only refuelling station available to the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean that doesn't force them to pass the straits in Turkey, a NATO member after all. You do realize that the Russian fleet will still have to pass the strait to reach Syria right? They can't base all their navy there, it's just a small auxiliary port.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:18
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I am curious to what will happen to the chemical weapons. AJ is saying White House asked Syrian government to relinquish them but I don't see that happening.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:19
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Mans posted:You do realize that the Russian fleet will still have to pass the strait to reach Syria right? They can't base all their navy there, it's just a small auxiliary port. I think he meant passing BACK through Turkey and into the Black Sea every time they need supplies.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:20
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Taking a step back and looking at this from a meta level, can I just say how incredible and surreal it is that we are able to follow and discuss a civil war in real time? The power of technology and its ability to spread information instantaneously is something to behold.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:21
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computer parts posted:Mubarak, but iirc all the protesters did was take some time off at sunset to eat/pray. No, Mubarak was ousted in February 2011 and Ramadan wasn't until August of that year.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:24
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The tweets about the gas masks being handed out by Assad to his elite troops is pretty scary. If those reports are true this is going to get even uglier, if that's remotely possible anymore. I don't think this will be over this month either.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:25
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Orange Devil posted:Wait why would Assad falling lead to a Hezbollah coup in Lebanon? I thought Nasrallah's talk was hinting at Hezbollah intervention in Syria. There's a lot of Sunni anger in Lebanon right now. Anger over Syria and Lebanon's inaction (and even the support of parts of the security apparatus for Syria), but also at what some in the community see as a double standard, where Hezbollah can have its guns and exert influence by force but Sunnis can't, anger over how Hariri was kicked out of office. Some of it's legitimate, some of it's bullshit, but the anger is real and if Assad falls, Hezbollah loses a significant pillar of support. Hezbollah's goal right now is to stay in power in the government. Which is why it's approving the STL funding to avoid a fight over it (even though the cabinet pretty much came into power to end the STL), trying to convince Aoun (Hezbollah's Christian ally) to stop fighting over the electricity strike, etc. So as the Sunnis radicalize and arm, especially in Tripoli and the north, who knows what Hezbollah will do if they lose Syria and Iran (due to increasingly damaging sanctions). I don't think a coup is likely, but there's a lot of uncertainty.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:28
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Al-Saqr posted:Please discount this, Al Arabiya is not a trustworthy source and and "anonymous source" is downright laughable. Arabiya is more trustworthy than most Arab news sources, and sourcing anonymously is pretty common practice when dealing with organizations like Hezbollah.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:29
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http://www3.almanar.com.lb/manarlive.php Nasrallah should be speaking here soon. Lots of crazy multimedia right now to commemorate the july war.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:38
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Capt Murphy posted:Taking a step back and looking at this from a meta level, can I just say how incredible and surreal it is that we are able to follow and discuss a civil war in real time? The power of technology and its ability to spread information instantaneously is something to behold. I can't imagine what it must have been like to try to run a country back when major poo poo could go down with a rival or trading partner and you wouldn't hear about it until months after it was over.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:41
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Lots of rumouras about chemical weapons being prepared, etc, last night I would have thought it was crazy talk, today I'm not so sure.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:42
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Highspeeddub posted:The tweets about the gas masks being handed out by Assad to his elite troops is pretty scary. If those reports are true this is going to get even uglier, if that's remotely possible anymore. I don't think this will be over this month either. Just gas masks? That's good news, it'll mean that the government won't be using nervous gas!  Seriously though I'd take such rumours with a pinch of salt. Gas masks are normally standard issue for all combat troops, surely elite troops of all would have them anyway. So what does that mean? Syrian troops have also been using tear gas in the past.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:48
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Brown Moses posted:Lots of rumouras about chemical weapons being prepared, etc, last night I would have thought it was crazy talk, today I'm not so sure. I hate to say "Never!" but where? Damascus? The Turkish border? It's not like there's a huge amount of Syria that he can afford to poison. And if he does this then all of the Russian dissimulation in the world wouldn't keep a multi-national force from kicking in his door and dragging him off to The Hague.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:50
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:Isn't there some sort of general consensus that Nasrallah has lost a fair bit of popularity with the Lebanese population because of his support for Assad? There's cognitive dissonance in Lebanese society in that ~100% of Lebanese sympathize with the demonstrators and believe that Assad needs to go, but 62% believe that Hezbollah plays a positive role in Syria. In terms of Hezbollah's decline, it's been static in Lebanon because of the sectarian politics there, but they've been on an obvious global decline since the 2006 war, like in the following countries. 
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Jul 18, 2012 18:54
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Zeroisanumber posted:I hate to say "Never!" but where? Damascus? The Turkish border? It's not like there's a huge amount of Syria that he can afford to poison. And if he does this then all of the Russian dissimulation in the world wouldn't keep a multi-national force from kicking in his door and dragging him off to The Hague. Fifteen years later, for mostly unrelated reasons going by historical standards.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:54
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If his regime is collapsing whats to stop him from just turning those weapons over to other militant groups in the region is what I'd be more worried about. They may not be willing to use chemical weapons but turning them over to someone else is likely isn't it? I mean whats the worst outcome chemical weapons get disseminated into the region from Syria and someone sets off a chemical bomb full of nerve gas in israel or something? How likely is that?
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Jul 18, 2012 18:56
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All sorts of crazy rumors now, including that Assad was burned and is en route to Latakia for treatment andd that there's been a large explosion at a major military base in Damascus.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:57
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Capt Murphy posted:Taking a step back and looking at this from a meta level, can I just say how incredible and surreal it is that we are able to follow and discuss a civil war in real time? The power of technology and its ability to spread information instantaneously is something to behold. Yet there's still a lot of confusion about these real-time events. There are a lot of rumours about the assassinations, the information won't be clear until the end of the war if ever.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:58
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Authorman posted:Fifteen years later, for mostly unrelated reasons going by historical standards. If Assad busts out WMDs against his own people in this age of 24/7 Al Jazeera coverage and a now-partially-functioning system of international justice, he is beyond hosed. The days of getting away with genocide are slowly receding (obviously mileage of this statement varies by continent/perpetrator), and WMDs are still the #1 hot button to press in international relations. At a minimum the Russians and Chinese would have to abandon support for him, and the outcry from the rest of the world would be so great that they'd truck him off to the Hague in a hot second.
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Jul 18, 2012 18:58
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Fine-able Offense posted:If Assad busts out WMDs against his own people in this age of 24/7 Al Jazeera coverage and a now-partially-functioning system of international justice, he is beyond hosed. The days of getting away with genocide are slowly receding (obviously mileage of this statement varies by continent/perpetrator), and WMDs are still the #1 hot button to press in international relations. At a minimum the Russians and Chinese would have to abandon support for him, and the outcry from the rest of the world would be so great that they'd truck him off to the Hague in a hot second. Remember when Nasser was arrested immediately for using poison gas against rebels in Yemen ? Or how the whole world considered him a pariah and isolated him ?
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Jul 18, 2012 19:02
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Hollis posted:If his regime is collapsing whats to stop him from just turning those weapons over to other militant groups in the region is what I'd be more worried about. They may not be willing to use chemical weapons but turning them over to someone else is likely isn't it? Al Jazeera was just talking about this too. Apparently White House asked Syrian government to relinquish the chemical weapons in case what you said happens. Those falling in the hands of a extremist/terrorist group is the absolute worst possible outcome out of all this.
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Jul 18, 2012 19:03
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CeeJee posted:Remember when Nasser was arrested immediately for using poison gas against rebels in Yemen ? Or how the whole world considered him a pariah and isolated him ? Are you seriously bringing up something that happened in 1967, when I am clearly talking about recent positive steps and the modern internet-based media environment?  Seriously, a better counterexample would have been to at least cite Hussein v. Kurds, at least that happened post-CNN. Not that THAT example works entirely, either, but at least it would have been closer...
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Jul 18, 2012 19:05
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MothraAttack posted:All sorts of crazy rumors now, including that Assad was burned and is en route to Latakia for treatment andd that there's been a large explosion at a major military base in Damascus. I don't know about this burning thing, but the story probably came from Arabiya sourcing a human rights activist that the presidential plane is heading from Damascus to Latakia. We don't know who's on board.
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Jul 18, 2012 19:05
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So Maher al-Assad is allegedly injured? Any more information?
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Jul 18, 2012 19:40
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Just the usual rumours, he was said to be injured as soon as the bomb went of. There's claim the bomb was built into a watercooler that was delivered to the building and installed by an FSA agent.
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Jul 18, 2012 19:42
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What did Nasrallah say?
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Jul 18, 2012 19:43
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McDowell posted:What did Nasrallah say? Nothing interesting, so far. He's about to get to Syria, but he's mostly talked about how he tricked Israel on the location of rockets in the July War, how Hezbollah won and is the resistance, etc.
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Jul 18, 2012 19:46
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If the regime is planning to use chemical weapons, that means they're planning to use them on Damascus, which... I mean, there would be no words for the scale of that.
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Jul 18, 2012 19:47
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Golbez posted:If the regime is planning to use chemical weapons, that means they're planning to use them on Damascus, which... I mean, there would be no words for the scale of that. It is a Saudi funded attack, to make Assad look bad. Or the U.S. did it somehow. Etc etc. . .
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Jul 18, 2012 19:49
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Nasrallah: Assad's Syria is a problem for the Israeli/Americans. New strategic vision for Syria over the last 10 years, posing a military threat. Israel increasingly fearful of Syria, because of missile capability. Some view Syria as a bridge between iran and the resistance, but Syria is more than that. The most important missiles that landed in Haifa were manufactured in Syria and given to the resistance in lebanon.
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Jul 18, 2012 19:50
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