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South Africa abstained.
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Jul 19, 2012 16:58
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Golbez posted:They support Assad primarily because NATO doesn't like him. It's a little more complicated than that. It's less about pissing off the West, and more about preventing their regional influence from dissipating. Also, Putin has some domestic issues that would become more complicated if it starts to become apparent that under his lead, Russia is losing its position as a world power.
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Jul 19, 2012 17:03
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That and the 30 000 russian citizens living in Syria from ye olden days. Got to protect them or look weak at home.
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Jul 19, 2012 17:03
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sullat posted:Yeah, that's not going to happen. Domino theory always has been and always will be a terrible metaphor for geopolitics. Iran had a period of unrest, but the regime managed to get through it with a little applied brutality and the support of religious conservatives who make up a huge chunk of the country. Also, Iran has periodic elections, which gives the elected leadership a veneer of credibility. There won't be a violent uprising again until maybe the next elections, if they are perceived to have been stolen. I hope it doesn't happen, but certain American politicians and religious groups have been beating that war drum loud enough and long enough the seed is planted in people's minds that Iran is evil, has had enough time to be evil and something needs to be done about them. A veneer of elections isn't enough for some countries to get a pass either. Belarus also holds "elections" yet no one believes they're free or fair either. I saw an earlier post mentioning Belarus as a country that could face an Arab spring type revolution and I will say with confidence Iran's government will fall before Belarus's. Sweden can drop all the teddy bears on that country and have as many KGB officials defect to them they want.
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Jul 19, 2012 17:04
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Xandu posted:South Africa abstained. They were too busy preparing more AIDS denialist conspiracy theories to read the Syria briefing, I guess.
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Jul 19, 2012 17:05
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Here's a  video of the FSA scoring a direct hit on a sniper, probably with a mortar.The FSA also managed to capture a border post in Idlib on the Syria/Turkey border https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ax1ORuohRs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZZQX5DmTrw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0FHtvlOInk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJcij83UyGc Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 17:08 on Jul 19, 2012 |
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Jul 19, 2012 17:05
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az jan jananam posted:Lebanon is always unstable, moreso now. Shows what I know. I have Lebanese friends where I am at, in Oregon, with plenty of family still in Lebanon. The only time I had seen them anxious is when Israel crossed into Lebanon a few years back to strike at Hezbollah. Otherwise they tell me that it is a safe place to visit for Americans overall. Well, with the same admonishment I hear about any country, as long as you stick with your trusted guide and stay out of 'bad parts of the cities'. I had thought with how little we heard of issues with Lebanon through the Tunisia > Egypt > Libya > Syria conflicts, that it was a calmer, more stable place.
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Jul 19, 2012 17:08
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truth masseuse posted:So once Syria falls, what country is the next domino? Kaal posted:The United States.  . Brown Moses might have a collector's edition featuring Israel, but rest assured, no one has an America card. 
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Jul 19, 2012 17:09
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Brown Moses posted:Here's a Almost sounds like they are yelling "GOAAAAAAAAAAL!".
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Jul 19, 2012 17:10
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5er posted:Shows what I know. I have Lebanese friends where I am at, in Oregon, with plenty of family still in Lebanon. The only time I had seen them anxious is when Israel crossed into Lebanon a few years back to strike at Hezbollah. Otherwise they tell me that it is a safe place to visit for Americans overall. Well, with the same admonishment I hear about any country, as long as you stick with your trusted guide and stay out of 'bad parts of the cities'. I had thought with how little we heard of issues with Lebanon through the Tunisia > Egypt > Libya > Syria conflicts, that it was a calmer, more stable place. It's definitely safe to visit, just politically unstable and (almost) always on the tip of boiling over.
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Jul 19, 2012 17:13
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Brown Moses posted:Here's a Whoever made that shot was either tremendously lucky or Vasily Zaytsev with a mortar.
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Jul 19, 2012 17:16
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Golbez posted:No, Assad wouldn't have let them stay. But had they turned, the new regime might have been open to welcoming them back. Also, what could Assad really do to them? He diverts the army from the rebels to lay seige or raid Tartous and he ends up creating the conditions for an automatic Russian or international intervention. The closest analogy I can think of is if Castro attempted to take Gitmo. Just like Castro would be cruising for a bruising from an American fist, it would be suicide to oppose a world superpower like Russia, especially in the middle of a revolution.
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Jul 19, 2012 17:18
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Zeroisanumber posted:Whoever made that shot was either tremendously lucky or Vasily Zaytsev with a mortar. Yeah, seriously. That's one hell of a mortar shot.
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Jul 19, 2012 17:18
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Volkerball posted:It's a little more complicated than that. It's less about pissing off the West, and more about preventing their regional influence from dissipating. Also, Putin has some domestic issues that would become more complicated if it starts to become apparent that under his lead, Russia is losing its position as a world power. Russia is its own region. They have a 140 million people. They can live without influencing even MORE people and area. They only care about their "influence" due to Soviet nostalgia and having NATO to focus against. What I'm saying is: Russia needs to grow the gently caress up, stop being childish, stop obsessing over "waaah I wanna be a world power," and join the 21st century. You know, that century that doesn't have a Soviet Union, and they should give up on it?
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Jul 19, 2012 17:25
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Zeroisanumber posted:Whoever made that shot was either tremendously lucky or Vasily Zaytsev with a mortar. Ha. Where's the guy who was claiming there was no way the FSA would be able to use mortars effectively? Golbez posted:Russia is its own region. They have a 140 million people. They can live without influencing even MORE people and area. They only care about their "influence" due to Soviet nostalgia and having NATO to focus against. While true, what country does this not apply to? VVV definitely not .50. Could be some other explosive projectile, but that's way too much effect from 1 bullet. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 17:31 on Jul 19, 2012 |
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Jul 19, 2012 17:26
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Zeroisanumber posted:Whoever made that shot was either tremendously lucky or Vasily Zaytsev with a mortar. On second review, I'm not entirely sure it was a mortor. May have been a .50 cal?
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Jul 19, 2012 17:26
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5er posted:Shows what I know. I have Lebanese friends where I am at, in Oregon, with plenty of family still in Lebanon. The only time I had seen them anxious is when Israel crossed into Lebanon a few years back to strike at Hezbollah. Otherwise they tell me that it is a safe place to visit for Americans overall. Well, with the same admonishment I hear about any country, as long as you stick with your trusted guide and stay out of 'bad parts of the cities'. I had thought with how little we heard of issues with Lebanon through the Tunisia > Egypt > Libya > Syria conflicts, that it was a calmer, more stable place. I'd be interested to hear anything regarding Syrian presence in Lebanon during these past few months. My mentor is from the Beirut area and says that his young relatives in the countryside have run into Syrian secret police numerous times, plus for years I've heard similar rumors about that and other general meddling. My knowledge of Lebanese politics is really low and I've admittedly stayed away from it on account of the topic being an unapproachable mess. "All this over a loving mountain," words from my mentor. Truly fascinating.
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Jul 19, 2012 17:28
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Young Freud posted:Also, what could Assad really do to them? He diverts the army from the rebels to lay seige or raid Tartous and he ends up creating the conditions for an automatic Russian or international intervention. I was wondering this as well: If Assad told Russia to leave, what would happen? If he opened fire on Russian warships, they would respond, but would Russia take this as a casus belli and launch a full attack? And how would the Security Council respond to that?
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Jul 19, 2012 17:28
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truth masseuse posted:On second review, I'm not entirely sure it was a mortor. May have been a .50 cal? Maybe a recoilless rifle, .50 sniper rifles aren't exactly common and a hit from one wouldn't fling you like a rag doll.
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Jul 19, 2012 17:31
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truth masseuse posted:On seconded review, I'm not entirely sure it was a mortor. May have been a .50 cal? A .50 caliber doesn't make someone go flying into the air ragdolling like that. That has to be an explosive. Looking closer, there looks to be a guy behind the roof access bulkhead tossing something, most likely a grenade.
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Jul 19, 2012 17:33
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It seems like a mortar from the way he was flung upwards. Also, assuming the bang at the beginning of the video is from the weapon that got him, it seems like the projectile was in the air far too long for a recoilless rifle. I'm pretty sure that guy's head popped off. 
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Jul 19, 2012 17:43
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Zeno-25 posted:It seems like a mortar from the way he was flung upwards. Also, assuming the bang at the beginning of the video is from the weapon that got him, it seems like the projectile was in the air far too long for a recoilless rifle. My only thing is typically mortar rounds are loud as hell in the air. I couldn't hear any kind of whistling like you'd hear before "Incoming." Could have just been drown out by the people talking. I didn't see the person who appeared to be throwing something that the above poster mentioned, but a grenade seems very plausible.
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Jul 19, 2012 17:54
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Golbez posted:I was wondering this as well: If Assad told Russia to leave, what would happen? If he opened fire on Russian warships, they would respond, but would Russia take this as a casus belli and launch a full attack? And how would the Security Council respond to that? They wouldn't fire at warships because Russians wouldn't try to resist. The Russian base is literally just a pier, a drydock and a few buildings within the city's port. It's a very small base. It's nothing like the Guantanamo Bay area, not defendable by any means. And no, Russia would not attack Syria... it would be laughable, Russian military has no such capability.
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Jul 19, 2012 17:56
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Young Freud posted:A .50 caliber doesn't make someone go flying into the air ragdolling like that. That has to be an explosive. Yeah, there's definitely a dude right behind where the sniper is - just keep an eye on the part of the roof where that big lightpost is.
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Jul 19, 2012 17:58
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There is no loving way its a 50cal bullet or a grenade, half the roof explodes in the video.
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Jul 19, 2012 17:59
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Zeno-25 posted:It seems like a mortar from the way he was flung upwards. Also, assuming the bang at the beginning of the video is from the weapon that got him, it seems like the projectile was in the air far too long for a recoilless rifle. The initial bang at the start seems to be coming from the sniper though.
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Jul 19, 2012 18:03
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keyframe posted:There is no loving way its a 50cal bullet or a grenade, half the roof explodes in the video. Just normal smoke and dust kicked off by any explosive. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDpuNrA55-A
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Jul 19, 2012 18:04
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keyframe posted:There is no loving way its a 50cal bullet or a grenade, half the roof explodes in the video. It looks like something impacts the sandbags before whatever it is launches the sniper into the air. There may have been a guy back there but on a closer viewing I don't think he tossed a grenade. Maybe spotting for someone who planted some explosives on the inside of the building.
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Jul 19, 2012 18:08
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This live stream allegedly shows a giant fire in the mountains nearby, possibly from a burning artillery unit: http://bambuser.com/v/2839752 e: and here is a picture, looks big: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=383499591717466&set=a.38349953505080585383.188677754532985&type=3&l=c3a1ece0a6&theater
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Jul 19, 2012 18:16
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The Entire Universe posted:It looks like something impacts the sandbags before whatever it is launches the sniper into the air. There may have been a guy back there but on a closer viewing I don't think he tossed a grenade. Maybe spotting for someone who planted some explosives on the inside of the building. It looks to me like he comes up the stairs, peeks out to identify the sniper, then eventually he really exposes himself, ducks back behind cover, and instantly after that, there's the explosion. We wouldn't be able to see a defined throwing action on that quality of video, but based on how he is using his cover, it looks like he's tossing a hand grenade. Also, like I said. It's completely missing the sound. You can't hear it from the launching point, but seeing as it would've been launched from so far away you can't even hear the round initially being fired (the first bang can't have been a mortar being fired nearby, as the hangtime wouldn't have been nearly that long) the sound should've been distinct. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGdELUQMMdM&feature=youtube_gdata_player#t=1m17s Volkerball fucked around with this message at 18:26 on Jul 19, 2012 |
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Jul 19, 2012 18:23
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Well the Brits sure aren't mincing words.William Hague posted:This course of action was necessary and reasonable and it was called for by the Arab League, by special envoy Kofi Annan, supported by countries across the council, like India, Morocco and Columbia. It was not a Western proposition. It was what people in governments all over the world wanted to see, and there was nothing in it that would have authorised military action.
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Jul 19, 2012 18:38
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This is probably pedantic, but is it really 'their darkest hour' now that they've just dealt a rather crippling blow to Assad's regime?
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Jul 19, 2012 18:54
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MothraAttack posted:This live stream allegedly shows a giant fire in the mountains nearby, possibly from a burning artillery unit: http://bambuser.com/v/2839752 Supposedly, these are in the al-Qasiuun mountains, near the Presidential Palace.
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Jul 19, 2012 19:03
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Pureauthor posted:This is probably pedantic, but is it really 'their darkest hour' now that they've just dealt a rather crippling blow to Assad's regime? The region is a powderkeg descending into anarchy. When Officials are being killed in bombings (no matter how terrible the leaders are), it's in major "nobody's right" territory. Russia backs Assad; the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia are arming "terrorists"/"freedom fighters". It's bad times for everyone. Behind closed doors do you think Putin has threatened to fire ICBMs into Afghanistan? The test launch into Kazakhstan suggests that at least some of the arsenal is aimed in that direction.
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Jul 19, 2012 19:04
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FSA controls all border checkpoints on Syria-Iraq border, Baghdad confirms: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5ispIrLdwmKGnbZc_TzlUOPGFyeow?docId=CNG.eeb39b7412701b678cf051d8c5bf6266.391 (Courtesy of Brown Moses' Twitter feed)
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Jul 19, 2012 19:06
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Patter Song link posted:"The top official said Iraqi border guards had witnessed the Free Syrian Army take control of a border outpost, detain a Syrian army lieutenant colonel, and then cut off his arms and legs. Yikes
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Jul 19, 2012 19:13
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Love it @dhdfisher Syria Traffic Update: seems to be some disruptions to public transport in #Damascus due to recent events There are a few tweets coming in now that Iran's IRGC Qods Foorce commander Soleimani was also killed in yesterday's bombings. http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/158048#utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=fanpage Unverified of course, but I would expect significant if true.
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Jul 19, 2012 19:14
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Sivias posted:Yikes Yea one thing the thread seems to be whitewashing is the FSA seems perfectly fine with battlefield and extrajudicial executions of prisoners.
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Jul 19, 2012 19:31
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The Guardian Liveblog has the draft of the resolution as well as some more quotes.UN Security Council posted:1. Decides to renew the mandate of the United Nations Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS) for a final period of 30 days, taking into consideration the Secretary-General's recommendations to reconfigure the Mission, and taking into consideration the operational implications of the increasingly dangerous security situation in Syria; I'm more or less out of words for the Russians and the Chinese at this point. Pack of assholes. Capt Murphy fucked around with this message at 19:38 on Jul 19, 2012 |
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Jul 19, 2012 19:35
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Patter Song posted:FSA controls all border checkpoints on Syria-Iraq border, Baghdad confirms: They also seized the main border crossing between Turkey and Syria, according to AFP.
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