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Shadoer
Aug 31, 2011


Zoe Quinn is one of many women targeted by the Gamergate harassment campaign.

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So the UN has approved unanimously a 30 day extension to the UN observer mission. Guess the Russians wanted to throw Kofi Annan a bone.

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Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Shadoer posted:

So the UN has approved unanimously a 30 day extension to the UN observer mission. Guess the Russians wanted to throw Kofi Annan a bone.

Think they've started realizing that the situation has changed significantly, especially if the rumors of Assad telling the Russian ambassador are true.

Zedsdeadbaby
Jun 14, 2008

You have been called out, in the ways of old.
I'm being cynical and thinking the Russians only threw that morsel out because they weren't expecting such a vitriolic backlash from the West over their last veto.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Xandu posted:

Somewhere between 20,000 people and 30,000 cars have passed into Lebanon from Syria in the last 2 days.

Something in this doesn't match...

Young Freud posted:

Think they've started realizing that the situation has changed significantly, especially if the rumors of Assad telling the Russian ambassador are true.

Nothing's changed, this was obvious already yesterday. None of the Security Council members wants the observing mission itself to end (especially at such a rush), the Sino-Russian opposition was aimed at the other parts of the resolution promoted by west.

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Nenonen posted:

Something in this doesn't match...

Well the first report was from yesterday and said 20k people and then the second report is from today and says 30k cars. I guess the Lebanese government decided it was too much work to count people.

Combined with all the reports of Alawis fleeing to the coast, Damascus is probably very empty right now. And the people left are most likely disproportionately the poor who have nowhere else to go.

edit:

http://twitter.com/#!/JohnWreford posted:

Ramadan in Damascus, cooking gas more than 3 times its usual price

Damascus Old City, hard to find fresh veg, silly prices,

and

http://twitter.com/redrazan posted:

People are fighting for bread, there is no bread anymore at this hour in Damascus, people are also buying lots of food #Syria

I went out to buy some food, in the center market of Damascus, everyone is closed except one restaurant and four shops #Syria

Xandu fucked around with this message at 16:47 on Jul 20, 2012

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.
Ramadan Kareem to those who have started it.

zero alpha
Feb 18, 2012

by Y Kant Ozma Post
These 'official rumours' just don't come out of nowhere, do they? They must have some basis, or perhaps Russia is hinting that they would like him to leave.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-syria-crisis-russiabre86j0b2-20120720,0,3827537.story

quote:

Ambassador Alexandre Orlov told French RFI radio that Assad, embattled by a rebellion against his rule, signaled readiness to step down when he accepted a recent international declaration which foresaw a transition towards a more democratic Syria.

"At the Geneva conference, there was a final communique that foresees a transition towards a more democratic system," Orlov said. "This final communique was accepted by Assad. Assad nominated his representative to lead the negotiations with the opposition for this transition. That means he accepted to leave, but in an orderly way."

The Syrian Information Ministry quickly denied this, saying Orlov's remarks were "completely devoid of truth".

A spokesman for the Russian embassy in France later said Orlov's words were "taken out of context" and that he had no "exclusive information about Assad's readiness to step down", the Interfax news agency reported.

zero alpha fucked around with this message at 17:38 on Jul 20, 2012

zero alpha
Feb 18, 2012

by Y Kant Ozma Post
Quote is not edit, and edit is not quote.

Ewan
Sep 29, 2008

Ewan is tired of his reputation as a serious Simon. I'm more of a jokester than you people think. My real name isn't even Ewan, that was a joke it's actually MARTIN! LOL fooled you again, it really is Ewan! Look at that monkey with a big nose, Ewan is so random! XD

Capt Murphy posted:

The Guardian Liveblog has the draft of the resolution as well as some more quotes.

UN Security Council posted:

1. Decides to renew the mandate of the United Nations Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS) for a final period of 30 days, taking into consideration the Secretary-General's recommendations to reconfigure the Mission, and taking into consideration the operational implications of the increasingly dangerous security situation in Syria;

2. Expresses its willingness to renew the mandate of UNSMIS thereafter only in the event that the Secretary-General reports and the Security Council confirms the full implementation of paragraph 2 of resolution 2043 and a reduction in the level of violence sufficient to allow UNSMIS to implement its mandate;

3. Requests the Secretary-General to report to the Council on the implementation of this resolution within 15 days;

4. Decides to remain seized of the matter.


I'm more or less out of words for the Russians and the Chinese at this point. Pack of assholes.
This isn't the resolution that was vetoed by the Russians and Chinese. The one that was vetoed mentioned Chapter 7 and was far far longer.

The one that was vetoed:
http://un-report.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/uk-draft-resolution-on-syria-unsmis.html
The proposed UK draft:
http://un-report.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/uk-draft-resolution-to-renew-unsmis.html
The one that has just been agreed by the UNSC (Which was another UK draft)
http://un-report.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/security-council-resolution-2059-on.html

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20120720/174698082.html posted:

A Russian cargo ship carrying a batch of Mi-25 attack helicopters and air defense systems for Syria has offloaded the aircraft in the Russian port of Baltiysk in the Kaliningrad region, a security source said on Friday.
"The ship has unloaded," the source said. "These helicopters are now on the shore. A decision from Rosoboronexport on what to do with them is expected shortly."

The helicopters, which were originally overhauled at the 150th aircraft repair plant in Russia's exclave of Kaliningrad, have been at the center of a diplomatic row between Russia and the West.

U.S Secretary of State Hillary Clinton accused Russia in June of supplying helicopter gunships to Damascus which could be used to massacre civilian demonstrators in the ongoing insurrection in the country. Russia said it was fulfilling a contract previously signed long ago for repair of the aircraft and denied they could be used for attacking civilians.

Femco, the shipping agent which owns the ship, the Alaed, previously said the documentation accompanying the cargo did not contain any data linking it to Syria.

The Alaed originally set sail from Baltiysk in June, allegedly carrying three Mi-25s and some air defense equipment. The ship turned back to Russia later that month, after its insurance cover was suspended by its British insurer, Standard Club. It later turned back and entered the port of Murmansk, and was later re-flagged as a Russian registered vessel.

The U.S. Congress voted to break off all contacts with Russia's state arms corporation Rosoboronexport on Thursday over concerns about Russia continuing to supply arms to Syria. Russia has maintained it is only fulfilling contracts signed before the current wave of unrest in Syria, and said last week it will not supply a batch of Yak-130 advanced jet trainers to Damascus.

eSports Chaebol
Feb 22, 2005

Yeah, actually, gamers in the house forever,

Funny enough, asking Russia to break their contract is one area where the U.S. actually has credibility since we sold Pakistan a bunch of F-16s that we never gave them (but did take the money and hold onto it for a decade) because of their nuclear program.

Mc Do Well
Aug 2, 2008

by FactsAreUseless
Russia is cutting its losses in Syria, but Xandu you should probably cross post that chicken story from Iran.

How did Putin's Israel trip go? Russia likely wants to ally more with Iran to counter balance the US/Saudi influence. The entire region is in flux.

Evil Fluffy
Jul 13, 2009

Scholars are some of the most pompous and pedantic people I've ever had the joy of meeting.

Valley Troll posted:

I could only get the cashed version of this for some reason, but apparently according to Syrian state media all those videos that Brown Moses and others have been posting were all produced in Qatar:

[url]http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:http://sana.sy/eng/22/2012/07/19/432383.htm[/url]


Consider yourselves duped

This story is bogus, everyone knows that Qatar outsourced to the guys that faked the moon landing. :downs:

Kombotron
Aug 11, 2011
More bad news.

"Jerusalem Post" posted:

Israel is preparing for a possible military intervention in Syria in case the Syrian government hands missiles or chemical weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said on Friday.

"I have instructed the military to increase its intelligence preparations and prepare what is needed so that ... (if necessary) ... we will be able to consider carrying out an operation," Barak said in an interview on Channel 10 television.

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.
This is super cynical, but Hezbollah and Syria would like nothing more than for that to happen.

Patter Song
Mar 26, 2010

Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.
Fun Shoe
Oh gently caress. No No No No No. This is really not good news.

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth
Oh motherfucker, that would be the absolute worst possible thing to happen. gently caress.

Sivias
Dec 12, 2006

I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.
An Israeli invasion of a Muslim country, what could possibly go wrong!?

I can't imagine America would be ok with that, though. I mean... Would they sanction their most trusted and closest ally in the middle east?

:aaa:

Sivias fucked around with this message at 22:04 on Jul 20, 2012

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
Goddamnit Israel, just shut up and keep your heads down, you idiots.

MRC48B
Apr 2, 2012

Kombotron posted:

More bad news.

Sabre rattling,

Stupid sabre rattling. How can they possibly think making a statement like that will improve things, or even impress anyone?

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Patter Song posted:

Oh gently caress. No No No No No. This is really not good news.

Is this news, though? To "instruct the military to increase its intelligence preparations and prepare what is needed so that ... (if necessary) ... we will be able to consider carrying out an operation" means nothing in practise.

Can you imagine the Israeli government not coming up with contingency plans?

MRC48B posted:

Sabre rattling,

Stupid sabre rattling. How can they possibly think making a statement like that will improve things, or even impress anyone?

It's not sabre rattling so much as it is soothing the people. Keep in mind that the Hezbollah strikes across the border are a kind of thing that the Israeli people are always worried about.

Nenonen fucked around with this message at 22:15 on Jul 20, 2012

Sivias
Dec 12, 2006

I think we can just sit around and just talk about our feelings.
And what if the Israeli intelligence preparations discovers possible Syrian chemical weapons being delivered to Lebanon?

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
If chemical weapons were brought to Lebanon that would be a disaster on its own.

Denzer
May 15, 2009
I know there are a lot of anti-Israel posters here (I'm not Israeli for the record) but I don't see how looking at it from their point of view they could allow the transfer of chemical or biological weapons, which we know Syria has, to Hezbollah without launching some sort of operation to prevent it.

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.
The CIA has got people talking to Syrian defectors and opposition figures to try to locate, and when the time comes secure, Syria's chemical weapons, like they did in Libya.

Israel can't move in the region without provoking a war. That's the effect of the last 70 years of policy. It leads to potentially serious threats like Hezbollah receiving chemical weapons (unlikely and honestly far from the biggest threat which the Syrian government or opposition outright losing control of them), but it means talking about a "possible military intervention" is one of the worst things Israel could do.

Zudgemud
Mar 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer

Nenonen posted:

If chemical weapons were brought to Lebanon that would be a disaster on its own.

95% domestic use :smith:

camel melt
Sep 21, 2006

Xandu posted:

The CIA has got people talking to Syrian defectors and opposition figures to try to locate, and when the time comes secure, Syria's chemical weapons, like they did in Libya.

Israel can't move in the region without provoking a war. That's the effect of the last 70 years of policy. It leads to potentially serious threats like Hezbollah receiving chemical weapons (unlikely and honestly far from the biggest threat which the Syrian government or opposition outright losing control of them), but it means talking about a "possible military intervention" is one of the worst things Israel could do.

Any idea on what happened with Libya's chemical weapons?

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20120720/OPINION04/307200046/David-Ignatius-US-working-influence-endgame-Syria?nclick_check=1 posted:

Libya was a test case for controlling chemical weapons amid revolutionary chaos. CIA officers on the ground helped the Libyan opposition secure the main chemical weapons bunker at Waddan. The CIA also helped connect the new Libyan government with officials from the deposed regime of Col. Moammar Gadhafi who were knowledgeable about the location of the weapons.

The CIA team, working with the Libyans, discovered that in addition to the Waddan stockpile, the regime had imported — perhaps from Iran — chemical-weapons artillery shells that were hidden in Sabha, a town in the central desert that is Gadhafi’s ancestral home. These were moved to Waddan, where they are now awaiting disposal, under international supervision.

MRC48B
Apr 2, 2012

Nenonen posted:

Is this news, though? To "instruct the military to increase its intelligence preparations and prepare what is needed so that ... (if necessary) ... we will be able to consider carrying out an operation" means nothing in practice.

Can you imagine the Israeli government not coming up with contingency plans?


It's not sabre rattling so much as it is soothing the people. Keep in mind that the Hezbollah strikes across the border are a kind of thing that the Israeli people are always worried about.

Every military on earth has plans. The United States has a plan to invade Canada. Spain has plans to defend against a French attack. Italy has plans to defend against a Swiss incursion. The US probably has extensive plans for an intervention if the drug war in Mexico deteriorates further. Smart governments however, do not mention them in press conferences.

I understand that they are probably trying to reassure a nervous populace. It's just a heavy-handed way of doing so, and I think discretion is the wiser path.

I don't want Hezbollah to acquire chemical weapons either. If such an exchange took place, I would fully support someone taking action to prevent it. Quietly.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006


Didn't the chief or former chief of chemical weapons forces in Syria end up defecting to the FSA? I'm sure he would be a boon to the CIA or any international effort to keep Syria's chemical weapons from being transfered.

Also, Hezbollah using chemical weapons against Israel would be a bad move. A real bad move, since Israel would end up using nuclear weapons in southern Lebanon as retaliation.

Health Services
Feb 27, 2009

Nenonen posted:

Is this news, though? To "instruct the military to increase its intelligence preparations and prepare what is needed so that ... (if necessary) ... we will be able to consider carrying out an operation" means nothing in practise.

Can you imagine the Israeli government not coming up with contingency plans?


It's not sabre rattling so much as it is soothing the people. Keep in mind that the Hezbollah strikes across the border are a kind of thing that the Israeli people are always worried about.

I think that it's not exactly all 'soothing the people.' The statement appears very carefully worded. Increasing intelligence preparation likely means things like determining the strength and position of Syrian forces, the routes and quality of roads (to determine potential invasion paths and possible speeds), and figuring out all the little logistical details that are needed in order to even be able to 'consider carrying out an operation.'

So I don't think that it's purely intended as sabre-rattling, or soothing people's fears. I think that it is probably an action taken to give Israeli policy-makers more freedom of action, and is intended as a signal of Israel's intentions, position, and capabilities. Is that a good thing? States often face perverse incentives, and sometimes actions that benefit one country's security can undermine the security of the region. By having plans and contingencies ready, there may be an increased chance of something escalating, or an unnecessary action being taken. On the other hand, having plans in place might allow for a more reasoned and measured reponse to new developments.

If I may leave a wet bromide, I think that on the whole I generally don't like it when things happen that raise the potential for a catastrophic failure of complex systems.

pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

I can't see a way in which Israel could disrupt Hizballah's rocket launching capabilities without having to launch a massive ground invasion and long, bloody occupation of southern Lebanon...which is exactly the kind of event that led to Hizballah's creation to begin with. Hizballah's defenses and infrastructure are spread out and well defended enough that air power alone would be insufficient.

Mans
Sep 14, 2011

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
So is Israel doing it's best to make Iran look good or are they simply idiots?

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Yeah, Libya went down really beautifully in that regard. The disarmament program was already under way and the chemical weapons or ingredients for them were, maybe by luck, not messed with at any point.

I don't see any purpose in allowing chemical weapons stockpiles to be kept by any nation. Many countries rely on WMDs as a deterrent, but chemical weapons in particular are a very weak deterrent: Iraq had them in 1991 and the west believed they had them in 2003, yet they weren't used at any point. There should be a universal ban on chemical weapons, in particular on nervous gases. No one is better off with Sarin and VX around, someone's going to call the bluff anyway and gases are difficult to use effectively. I would hope that this war will convince the world on the need for a complete, immediate, obligatory disarmament treaty. One which no one is allowed to circumvent by not signing to it.

Just to point out how outdated this type of weapon is, a quote from the staunchest supporter of the weapon, 1919:

Winston Churchill posted:

I do not understand this squeamishness about the use of gas. We have definitely adopted the position at the Peace Conference of arguing in favour of the retention of gas as a permanent method of warfare. It is sheer affectation to lacerate a man with the poisonous fragment of a bursting shell and to boggle at making his eyes water by means of lachrymatory gas. I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes. The moral effect should be so good that the loss of life should be reduced to a minimum. It is not necessary to use only the most deadly gasses: gasses can be used which cause great inconvenience and would spread a lively terror and yet would leave no serious permanent effects on most of those affected.

And yet Britain did not use chemical weapons against 'uncivilised tribes', nor Germans during WW2, nor at any later point.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Just put together my latest UXO post, this time a guide on how to quickly ID UXO used in Syria

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Nenonen posted:

Yeah, Libya went down really beautifully in that regard. The disarmament program was already under way and the chemical weapons or ingredients for them were, maybe by luck, not messed with at any point.

I don't see any purpose in allowing chemical weapons stockpiles to be kept by any nation. Many countries rely on WMDs as a deterrent, but chemical weapons in particular are a very weak deterrent: Iraq had them in 1991 and the west believed they had them in 2003, yet they weren't used at any point. There should be a universal ban on chemical weapons, in particular on nervous gases. No one is better off with Sarin and VX around, someone's going to call the bluff anyway and gases are difficult to use effectively. I would hope that this war will convince the world on the need for a complete, immediate, obligatory disarmament treaty. One which no one is allowed to circumvent by not signing to it.

We've already got basically everybody to already sign that though, and I don't think it'd be that difficult to get the others to sign on (assuming Syria doesn't devolve into total chaos, I guess).

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

computer parts posted:

We've already got basically everybody to already sign that though, and I don't think it'd be that difficult to get the others to sign on (assuming Syria doesn't devolve into total chaos, I guess).

Good luck with Israel and North Korea, though.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Here's a first, an alleged female shabiha, anyone know what she's saying?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch7586rvIJs

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Nenonen posted:

And yet Britain did not use chemical weapons against 'uncivilised tribes', nor Germans during WW2, nor at any later point.

Technically, they didn't use them against enemy forces because Hitler had seen what mustard gas did to people first hand and wanted to avoid wholesale chemical warfare.

OTOH, using Zyklon B on concentration camp inhabitants is something entirely different.

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Jut
May 16, 2005

by Ralp

Young Freud posted:


Also, Hezbollah using chemical weapons against Israel would be a bad move. A real bad move, since Israel would end up using nuclear weapons in southern Lebanon as retaliation.

That's some Tom Clancy poo poo there. Israel are not nuking anyone. *IF* Hez used chemical weapons, a few people would die, and Israel would use conventional arms against Lebanon. That's it.

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